Week 16 who should I start thread **OFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[Chaka]

DOUBLE SECRET CRUNCH TIME EDITION!

This is where we ask questions and offer help. And thank you to all of the posters who come here to offer that help.

A couple notes:

I attempt to give well considered responses to all questions posted.

1) This only works if people participate. If you ask for help it is good form to offer help to someone else.

2) It helps if you post the matchup. e.g. Mayfield vs Den or Matt Ryan @ Mia

3) Please post important league scoring considerations (e.g. PPR, super-flex etc).

4) Please go easy on the nicknames, save that for other threads. We can't help if we don't know who you are talking about.

View this as an exercise to help focus your thoughts about teams in general. Players you own may not be involved in these WDIS questions but certainly you will own players on many of these teams. Analyzing other players will help you identify things you may have otherwise not considered.

 

[-OZ-]

Ppr, pick 2:

Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB Vs PIT Sun 3:25 p.m. 

Jones, Aaron GBP RB Vs CLE Sat 3:30 p.m. 

 Jones, Ronald TBB RB @ CAR Sun 12:00 p.m.

Sanders, Miles PHI RB Vs NYG Sun 12:00

leaning A Jones and sanders but closer than I’d have thought. 

 

[C-Bound]

Ppr, pick 2:

Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB Vs PIT Sun 3:25 p.m. 

Jones, Aaron GBP RB Vs CLE Sat 3:30 p.m. 

 Jones, Ronald TBB RB @ CAR Sun 12:00 p.m.

Sanders, Miles PHI RB Vs NYG Sun 12:00

leaning A Jones and sanders but closer than I’d have thought. 

Could justify any of them.  I actually would lean CEH and R. Jones.  Pitt is abysmal stopping the run and Chiefs will likely be offensively shorthanded.  Panthers are a run funnel and I seem to recall a 99 yd TD run by Jones against them.

 

[C-Bound]

Pick 2 PPR:  R. Jones, A, Dillon, D. Foreman, S. Michel.

 

[Epic]

GB or KC Defense

1/2 PRR need 1 - Sony, Foreman, R.Jones

And Crazy to think about benching Kylar for Hill?

 

[BerserkerKing]

Having trouble finalizing my championship game starting lineup (PPR dynasty league). Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

Pick 3:

Zeke vs WAS (hasn't been good for weeks and is TD dependent, but scored last week)

D'Onta Foreman vs SF (committee backfield, but has seen around 20 carries in back to back weeks)

Miles Sanders vs NYG (back to back games over 120yds, but the coach has made Sanders take a back seat the other guys multiple times this season)

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs ATL (3 games in a row of heavy targets, but Goff just got put on the covid list)

Sony Michel vs MIN (timeshare with Henderson, but has looked good 3 weeks in a row)

 

[jobarules]

Somehow I made the playoffs in all 3 leagues! I had the bye in 2 and made the 3rd 4 team playoff last night! I have numerous tough decisions...

All leagues are 0.5 PPR:

League 1- Choose 2: Javonte vs LV, RJones vs CAR, Higgins vs BAL, Waddle vs NO

League 2- Rank these WRs: AB vs CAR, Moore vs TB, Gage vs DET, Davis vs NE

League 3- Barkley vs PHI or Cooks vs LAC at Flex

 

[jobarules]

Having trouble finalizing my championship game starting lineup (PPR dynasty league). Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

Pick 3:

Zeke vs WAS (hasn't been good for weeks and is TD dependent, but scored last week)

D'Onta Foreman vs SF (committee backfield, but has seen around 20 carries in back to back weeks)

Miles Sanders vs NYG (back to back games over 120yds, but the coach has made Sanders take a back seat the other guys multiple times this season)

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs ATL (3 games in a row of heavy targets, but Goff just got put on the covid list)

Sony Michel vs MIN (timeshare with Henderson, but has looked good 3 weeks in a row)

I like the bolded. No way would I trust a Lions WR in a championship game. And 49ers have tough run defense so I dont see much upside for Foreman.

 

[jobarules]

Ppr, pick 2:

Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB Vs PIT Sun 3:25 p.m. 

Jones, Aaron GBP RB Vs CLE Sat 3:30 p.m. 

 Jones, Ronald TBB RB @ CAR Sun 12:00 p.m.

Sanders, Miles PHI RB Vs NYG Sun 12:00

leaning A Jones and sanders but closer than I’d have thought. 

AJones is a no-brainer. I like Sanders over RJones only for the trust factor. CEH hasnt done much this year so hes a distant 4th

 

[jobarules]

Pick 2 PPR:  R. Jones, A, Dillon, D. Foreman, S. Michel.

My pick would be Jones and Michel as they should get the bulk of the carries on good offenses with good matchups. None of your options really catch many passes. 49ers have tough run defense and Dillon in a timeshare.

 

[jobarules]

GB or KC Defense

1/2 PRR need 1 - Sony, Foreman, R.Jones

And Crazy to think about benching Kylar for Hill?

KC Defense seems like a great play this week. GB has been shaky lately.

I like RJones barely over Michel. Both are great plays.

Yes, this is nuts. Start Murray

 

[-OZ-]

Could justify any of them.  I actually would lean CEH and R. Jones.  Pitt is abysmal stopping the run and Chiefs will likely be offensively shorthanded.  Panthers are a run funnel and I seem to recall a 99 yd TD run by Jones against them.

AJones is a no-brainer. I like Sanders over RJones only for the trust factor. CEH hasnt done much this year so hes a distant 4th

  no wonder I’m having a hard time choosing. 

 

[-OZ-]

GB or KC Defense

1/2 PRR need 1 - Sony, Foreman, R.Jones

And Crazy to think about benching Kylar for Hill?

Hill might outscore Murray but I definitely wouldn’t bench KM. 
 

rojo, especially with the Bucs needing to rely on him  

I’d roll with the cheese. 

 

[Rubi]

Decimal scoring. 1 PPR

My conundrum:

                           Need TWO of the following flexes:

                                                                                      D.Parker 

                                                                                      N.Fant

                                                                                      E.Mitchell(knee...gtd?)

                                                                                       A.J. Brown( Thursday gtd?)

 

[Chaka]

As always here are my results from last week and season long totals vs a random coin toss.

Last week there were 67 head-2-head calls asked in this thread, which is by far the most that have been asked all season, and I think I owe some people an apology.

Sadly I went 30-35-2 on my calls and the coin toss also went 30-35-2

On the season I am 234-192-21 and the coin toss is 213-214-21

On to week 16

 

[Chaka]

My dilemmas this week in full PPR:

QB:

Can I possibly bench Josh Allen @ New England?

I have Derek Carr v Denver and Tyler Huntley @ Cincinnati

Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs are a big part of the reason I am still alive ATM. I think I have to roll them out and let the chips fall where they may.

FLEX:

Darnell Mooney @ Seattle

Josh Jacobs v Denver

Donta Foreman v SF (Thu)

Justin Jackson @ Houston

Rashaad Penny v Chi

ATM I am rolling Jacobs out but Mooney is an option and if, for whatever reason Ekeler misses this game Justin Jackson becomes very interesting.

DEFENSE: I have the Titans v SF (Thu) and I am happy enough with that.

The best fantasy defenses on my wire is Indianapolis @ Arizona

Ari v Indy

LAR @ Minn

Defenses with the best matchups are: either side of Sea v Chi

Atl v Det

Either side of NYJ v Jax

I think I am going to stick with Tennessee

 

[Chaka]

Ppr, pick 2:

Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB Vs PIT Sun 3:25 p.m. 

Jones, Aaron GBP RB Vs CLE Sat 3:30 p.m. 

 Jones, Ronald TBB RB @ CAR Sun 12:00 p.m.

Sanders, Miles PHI RB Vs NYG Sun 12:00

leaning A Jones and sanders but closer than I’d have thought. 

I agree with your picks. I like Ronald Jones a bit this week. He definitely has upside, particularly in PPR, if he really steps fully into the Fournette role but we aren't 100% on that happening.  Personally I don't view Bell as even remotely a concern.  But that Panther defense is still solid and we don't know what we don't know about how R.Jones will be deployed so I am bearish on him especially when you have other good options.

CEH is fine but simply too hit or miss.

You could argue the same about Aaron Jones but I think his usage is trending in the right direction and he does score a bunch of TDs.

After 15 weeks it looks like Siriani finally got all of his head entirely out of the southbound end of that northbound mule and has anointed Miles Sanders as the lead back.  With a plus matchup on tap I think you have to ride that hot hand.  And he's got to score a TD eventually, right?  RIGHT?

A.Jones/Sanders>R.Jones>CEH

 

[Chaka]

Pick 2 PPR:  R. Jones, A, Dillon, D. Foreman, S. Michel.

Well I could not have been more wrong about S.Michel last week.  I thought a healthy Henderson would come back and step into the lead role. Mea culpa.

This is still a tough call but, based on the assumption that Michel remains in his current role I think you have to roll him out.

I have been impressed by Foreman and I like how Tennessee is using him but the short week against a surging Niner team is a concern.

I think Dillon is a real coin toss going forward with Aaron Jones getting healthy. He could score three TDs and he could get 9 opportunities for 50 yards. Love his talent but is that kind of variance something you can bank on in week 16?

Ronald Jones is going to be this weeks PITA call for me.  Last week it was Rashaad Penny and I went 3-8 in H2H calls with him (seriously people, I do feel bad about that. I rolled him out myself, which actually makes me 3-9).  Is he going to step into the full Fournette role? I think he will probably get 70-80% of that usage. I know AB is coming back but Godwin is out, if Evans is also out (a hamstring also suggests he will be limited even if he plays), I don't think TB can simply pass their way to victory.  Is Leveon Bell going to be any kind of vulture? I personally view him as little more than an insurance policy.  Keshawn Vaughn got 5 opportunities after Fournette went down and Jones got 7 opportunities is definitely a concern.

Ultimately my feelings on Jones are that he will be given every opportunity to be the lead back but he's going to have a short-ish leash.  I think he will lead the Bucs in RB opportunities but, whether that is 12 opportunities or 20+ opportunities will depend on how he performs early.  Against a mostly tough Carolina defense, I really don't know.

Yeah he is going to be a real head scratcher this week.

Bottom line is this is about risk tolerance:

Michel & Foreman are probably the pair in line for the most opportunities & Jones is your wild card.

Michel>Foreman/Jones>Dillon  I think my gut is telling me Foreman>Jones but it's definitely tight.

ETA: @C-Bound on reflection I am a little more concerned about Michel's role as well.  I think he definitely gets first crack at continuing his pace but maybe, like Jones, if he doesn't do anything early perhaps Henderson could take over as lead back this week.  With that in mind Foreman is probably your safe bet IF you are trying to lock in opportunities.

 

[sho nuff]

This will be a fun one...also based on what ends up happening in waivers. 

Standard Scoring.

First decision...which I thought Id never have to think twice about.  Kyler Murray vs. Jalen Hurts

Locked in at WR 1 and 2 (Jefferson and Kupp)

Locked in at RB 1 (Aaron Jones) and likely RB2 (Javonte Williams)

TE:  with the concussion dropped Freiermuth.  Could pick him back up Saturday or go with Jared Cook later.  Seems to be the top options.  Not loving any of it.

Leaving me with the question on my RB2 if I am convinced against Javonte and Flex.  Options:

Javonte already mentioned for RB2...not a great game last week...but seems his floor is that 7ish points with big upside.

Eli Mitchell if he plays.  (I want to like it...but the one thing TN does well is stop the run)

Tee Higgins...depleted Balt secondary...but he almost cost me this past weekend.

Saquon Barkley...he has been...well, ok, but not great.  Do I trust him?   Not so much.

Tony Pollard....only if something happens to Zeke between now and game time. 

Rashaad Penny...if he is even on my team by then.  As of now, he will be my possible drop for the free agents mentioned next

Antonio Brown...Godwin and Evans likely out...he could be huge...but also could be slowed being out for so long.

Ronald Jones...Fournette out...he is my #1 priority on waivers for 2 reasons.  Possible volume with no Lenny...and one of the other final 4 teams just lost Fournette.

As of now...I can pick one of those two guys up without dropping anyone as I have an open roster spot.  For the other I will have to drop a player...Penny seems the only real choice there....though, maybe Pollard especially now with the Zeke owner being out of the playoffs.

So QB choice...RB2 if not Javonte...and flex advice needed.

 

[Chaka]

GB or KC Defense

1/2 PRR need 1 - Sony, Foreman, R.Jones

And Crazy to think about benching Kylar for Hill?

Neither Cle or Pit give up a ton of points to opposing defenses, which makes your call more difficult.  Both Cle & Pit have a punchers chance to win this week too (assuming the Covid issue in Cleveland is over).

I think you need to follow very closely what is happening in KC with Covid and if some of their bigger players on D are out then definitely roll out GB.  However if Chris Jones comes back and they don't lose anyone else then...yeah I think I roll out KC.  They have really been getting after the QB and forcing TOs since week 10 (27 combined sacks, INTs & Fumble recoveries, with 2 TDs compared to GB who has 18 combined with 2 TDs.  KC has also only allowed 67 points over that time span while GB has allowed 122, even though they shut out the Seahawks in week 10).

KC>GB IF the covid issue doesn't ruin KC this week

RB:

After this week is it safe to assume that Michel will get every opportunity to continue his lead role going forward? After being so wrong about Henderson last week I am definitely worried that the situation may be truly fluid and we can't know.  With that in mind Foreman is definitely your safest play if you want to lock in touches.

Yeah Michel & R.Jones are going to frustrate and/or elate a lot of people this week.

Foreman is probably your safest floor and he has some upside too as he will get any goal line opportunities, assuming there are any.

Foreman>Michel/R.Jones 

IF you value the upside that much more you need to flip a coin between Michel & Jones. I don't think I can reason myself to any solid conclusion on either of them at the moment.

RE: Kyler v Taysom no it's not crazy, but it'll definitely take some cajones. Taysom and Murray are tied in fantasy points (my league) over the last three weeks.  That is a small sample size but it is worth noting.  Murray has had the higher floor (9 to 5 points) and the higher upside (27 to 21 points) over that span.  Hill runs more (33 to 21 times) but they both have 2 rush TDs over that time.

But since Hopkins went out in week 14 Murray has put up 9 & 9 fantasy points.  Is that a trend?  Will fighting for the NFC West give them a boost or are they collapsing again? Don't we all think Sean Payton (& Dennis Allen)>>>Kliff Kingsbury (& Vance Joseph) too?

Ugh, so many moving parts.

If you've got the fortitude to put in Hill I might just do it.  But really a bold call, on paper at least.

 

[Chaka]

Having trouble finalizing my championship game starting lineup (PPR dynasty league). Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

Pick 3:

Zeke vs WAS (hasn't been good for weeks and is TD dependent, but scored last week)

D'Onta Foreman vs SF (committee backfield, but has seen around 20 carries in back to back weeks)

Miles Sanders vs NYG (back to back games over 120yds, but the coach has made Sanders take a back seat the other guys multiple times this season)

Amon-Ra St. Brown vs ATL (3 games in a row of heavy targets, but Goff just got put on the covid list)

Sony Michel vs MIN (timeshare with Henderson, but has looked good 3 weeks in a row)

I think with Goff on Covid (and assuming he doesn't clear protocol) Zeke and Amon-Ra are the odd men out.  If Goff comes back I may lean towards benching Michel because of the very real uncertainty about whether or not McVay is truly committed to riding the hot hand at RB.  Michel should get first crack at Minn, and no reason to think he won't do okay but IF he falters couldn't Henderson seize the lead role for this game? I think Henderson is also a better receiver out of the backfield which may give him an edge this week.  The point is there is enough uncertainty to understand there is a bigger risk with Michel than a guy like Foreman and Sanders (finally).

I agree with you about Zeke and I also think Pollard becomes more of a factor after getting 15 touches and averaging over 6.0/carry last week.

 

[steelcityman]

All year I used Brady, except the bye week, and I ended regular season in 1st, had my bye and now am faced with a decision:

Brady at Carolina with no Godwin, might have Evans, and should have AB

Burrow vs Ravens who he lit up earlier

 

[Chaka]

Somehow I made the playoffs in all 3 leagues! I had the bye in 2 and made the 3rd 4 team playoff last night! I have numerous tough decisions...

All leagues are 0.5 PPR:

League 1- Choose 2: Javonte vs LV, RJones vs CAR, Higgins vs BAL, Waddle vs NO

League 2- Rank these WRs: AB vs CAR, Moore vs TB, Gage vs DET, Davis vs NE

League 3- Barkley vs PHI or Cooks vs LAC at Flex

Hmmmm...

League 1 - Even with Drew Lock starting at QB I think Javonte should be in your lineup.  Since week 10 (& excluding the game Gordon missed) he has 11, 18, 17 & 19 opportunities per game.  Last week was the first time he got more opps than Gordon too.  The Raiders crushed the Broncos the last time they played but this is a very different Raiders team and a very different Broncos team (surprisingly better since trading Von Miller).  I can't bench Javonte for any of those guys ATM.

R.Jones has the most uncertainty around him. I have detailed it already in several posts just above this one.  Bottom line is he will get first crack to take the job and get Fournette touches, but if he falters we will likely see more passing and more subbing of Vaughn and maybe even Bell.

Higgins v Waddle is interesting particularly as Devante Parker is now back healthy.  Honestly it's a bit of a coin flip but Waddle has been better on the season and slightly better over the last 4-5 games. Higgins has a slightly better matchup and is at home so does that balance it out?  Not sure.  It's a huge game for all four teams involved as well.  Yeesh.  Man I'm not going to be able to reason my way into anything helpful here.  Go with your gut. Mine just said

Javonte>Waddle>Higgins>Jones

League 2 - AB, DJ & Gage are all neck-and-neck IMO.  Pure speculation but DJ is the biggest target sponge and I think that gives him the best floor.  I think Gage also has a good floor and the best matchup by far.  AB should come back and see plenty of action with Godwin out and possibly Evans too.  He definitely has the biggest upside.  Davis isn't a consideration, don't chase points and it's perhaps the most difficult matchup a player could have.

Ultimately I think you have a safe floor with all three of your options.

AB>Gage>DJ

League 3 - Barkely is getting volume but I think the Giants have quit and is Barkley any more trustworthy than Cooks who is mostly a target sponge (particularly with Davis at QB) in a game Houston will need to throw a ton?

Cooks>Barkely

 

[jobarules]

My dilemmas this week in full PPR:

QB:

Can I possibly bench Josh Allen @ New England?

I have Derek Carr v Denver and Tyler Huntley @ Cincinnati

Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs are a big part of the reason I am still alive ATM. I think I have to roll them out and let the chips fall where they may.

FLEX:

Darnell Mooney @ Seattle

Josh Jacobs v Denver

Donta Foreman v SF (Thu)

Justin Jackson @ Houston

Rashaad Penny v Chi

ATM I am rolling Jacobs out but Mooney is an option and if, for whatever reason Ekeler misses this game Justin Jackson becomes very interesting.

DEFENSE: I have the Titans v SF (Thu) and I am happy enough with that.

The best fantasy defenses on my wire is Indianapolis @ Arizona

Ari v Indy

LAR @ Minn

Defenses with the best matchups are: either side of Sea v Chi

Atl v Det

Either side of NYJ v Jax

I think I am going to stick with Tennessee

Theres no way in a million years Id bench Josh Allen, I dont care how "tough" the matchup is. Unless you also have another top 3 QB which you clearly dont

For flex, I agree on Jacobs. Those other options are way too hit or miss and Jacobs is the entire RB backfield now.

For defense, I think Id take the gamble on Indy. They are turnover machines and Arizona has been bad offensively lately.

 

[Chaka]

Decimal scoring. 1 PPR

My conundrum:

                           Need TWO of the following flexes:

                                                                                      D.Parker 

                                                                                      N.Fant

                                                                                      E.Mitchell(knee...gtd?)

                                                                                       A.J. Brown( Thursday gtd?)

Fant isn't an option IMO.  Too many weapons in Denver and Lock can't be trusted. Parker is the must start as you have by far the most clarity and even with Waddle back he will likely see 8 or so targets.

I would love to say Brown, I want to pick him up and start him myself but how can we possibly predict anything about him.  He'll probably get his usual 9 targets and perform well, with some upside. But there is just so much uncertainty.  It was a chest injury and not a lower extremity or back injury which is definitely a positive, and they don't have a ton of other options in the passing game either.  There is uncertainty with Mitchell too I guess but you should have enough clarity before kickoff tomorrow to make a more informed opinion.  I think the Niners have one of the best offensive lines in the league and they are really excelling ATM. If Mitchell plays the Niners will beat the heck out of him, like they always do giving him a pretty safe floor and some good upside.

Predicting the Niner/Titan game is rough.  The Niners are surging and the Titans are still solid at their core and really need this win at home lest they blow what was effectively a 3.5 game advantage in the division over Indy.

Parker>Coin Flip>Fant

FWIW my gut slightly leans Mitchell>Brown but I think I could change my mind about 100 times before kickoff tomorrow.

 

[Chaka]

Theres no way in a million years Id bench Josh Allen, I dont care how "tough" the matchup is. Unless you also have another top 3 QB which you clearly dont

For flex, I agree on Jacobs. Those other options are way too hit or miss and Jacobs is the entire RB backfield now.

For defense, I think Id take the gamble on Indy. They are turnover machines and Arizona has been bad offensively lately.

Thanks. 

Huntley was a top 3 QB last week but I absolutely agree.  I can't, and won't bench Allen or Diggs.

I'm pretty locked in on Jacobs too.  Foreman has been playing well and getting solid volume but you are right about Jacobs and his usage in the passing game has been a legit boon.

Yeah Indy v Tenn as my pick this week is a tough one but Arizona hasn't been a boon for opposing defenses in my league (12, 3, 4, 6, 3 points over the last five) of course the Niners have been even better (3, 3, 9, 6 & 1).

Gonna sleep on this one. Thanks.

 

[Chaka]

This will be a fun one...also based on what ends up happening in waivers. 

Standard Scoring.

First decision...which I thought Id never have to think twice about.  Kyler Murray vs. Jalen Hurts

Locked in at WR 1 and 2 (Jefferson and Kupp)

Locked in at RB 1 (Aaron Jones) and likely RB2 (Javonte Williams)

TE:  with the concussion dropped Freiermuth.  Could pick him back up Saturday or go with Jared Cook later.  Seems to be the top options.  Not loving any of it.

Leaving me with the question on my RB2 if I am convinced against Javonte and Flex.  Options:

Javonte already mentioned for RB2...not a great game last week...but seems his floor is that 7ish points with big upside.

Eli Mitchell if he plays.  (I want to like it...but the one thing TN does well is stop the run)

Tee Higgins...depleted Balt secondary...but he almost cost me this past weekend.

Saquon Barkley...he has been...well, ok, but not great.  Do I trust him?   Not so much.

Tony Pollard....only if something happens to Zeke between now and game time. 

Rashaad Penny...if he is even on my team by then.  As of now, he will be my possible drop for the free agents mentioned next

Antonio Brown...Godwin and Evans likely out...he could be huge...but also could be slowed being out for so long.

Ronald Jones...Fournette out...he is my #1 priority on waivers for 2 reasons.  Possible volume with no Lenny...and one of the other final 4 teams just lost Fournette.

As of now...I can pick one of those two guys up without dropping anyone as I have an open roster spot.  For the other I will have to drop a player...Penny seems the only real choice there....though, maybe Pollard especially now with the Zeke owner being out of the playoffs.

So QB choice...RB2 if not Javonte...and flex advice needed.

I absolutely will try to get to this in detail but we've got family coming in and I gotta get some stuff done.

Preliminarily.

Hurts>>Murray

I like your TE logic. Play Freirmuth if he plays.

Javonte had 19 touches for 81 yards including 4 receptions and is playing a...IDK what but they aren't good against the run at all.  I would only play Mitchell over him and even then IDK.

AB>Higgins

 

[Epic]

Neither Cle or Pit give up a ton of points to opposing defenses, which makes your call more difficult.  Both Cle & Pit have a punchers chance to win this week too (assuming the Covid issue in Cleveland is over).

I think you need to follow very closely what is happening in KC with Covid and if some of their bigger players on D are out then definitely roll out GB.  However if Chris Jones comes back and they don't lose anyone else then...yeah I think I roll out KC.  They have really been getting after the QB and forcing TOs since week 10 (27 combined sacks, INTs & Fumble recoveries, with 2 TDs compared to GB who has 18 combined with 2 TDs.  KC has also only allowed 67 points over that time span while GB has allowed 122, even though they shut out the Seahawks in week 10).

KC>GB IF the covid issue doesn't ruin KC this week

RB:

After this week is it safe to assume that Michel will get every opportunity to continue his lead role going forward? After being so wrong about Henderson last week I am definitely worried that the situation may be truly fluid and we can't know.  With that in mind Foreman is definitely your safest play if you want to lock in touches.

Yeah Michel & R.Jones are going to frustrate and/or elate a lot of people this week.

Foreman is probably your safest floor and he has some upside too as he will get any goal line opportunities, assuming there are any.

Foreman>Michel/R.Jones 

IF you value the upside that much more you need to flip a coin between Michel & Jones. I don't think I can reason myself to any solid conclusion on either of them at the moment.

RE: Kyler v Taysom no it's not crazy, but it'll definitely take some cajones. Taysom and Murray are tied in fantasy points (my league) over the last three weeks.  That is a small sample size but it is worth noting.  Murray has had the higher floor (9 to 5 points) and the higher upside (27 to 21 points) over that span.  Hill runs more (33 to 21 times) but they both have 2 rush TDs over that time.

But since Hopkins went out in week 14 Murray has put up 9 & 9 fantasy points.  Is that a trend?  Will fighting for the NFC West give them a boost or are they collapsing again? Don't we all think Sean Payton (& Dennis Allen)>>>Kliff Kingsbury (& Vance Joseph) too?

Ugh, so many moving parts.

If you've got the fortitude to put in Hill I might just do it.  But really a bold call, on paper at least.

Wow, thanks for the awesome analysis. I have Kamara/Harris as well and while I don't think Foreman/Sony/R.Jones (currently 1 in my flex) would slot in over them, I sure would consider it based on past couple of games. I do remember Kamara 6TD game last Christmas, so can't start challenging the gods.   I have Cooks/Pittman/Parker and am rolling Cooks/Pittman...Pittman scares me, but Parker against Lattimore is a no go for me. Thanks again!

 

[BobbyLayne]

As always here are my results from last week and season long totals vs a random coin toss.

Last week there were 67 head-2-head calls asked in this thread, which is by far the most that have been asked all season, and I think I owe some people an apology.

Sadly I went 30-35-2 on my calls and the coin toss also went 30-35-2

On the season I am 234-192-21 and the coin toss is 213-214-21

On to week 16

Congrats on the tie. Rolling with the coin flip again since last week was a push.

 

[BobbyLayne]

TE:  with the concussion dropped Freiermuth.  Could pick him back up Saturday or go with Jared Cook later.  Seems to be the top options.  Not loving any of it.

FWIW this is what I’m doing this week. Also have Everett but mostly as a block. 

I’m anticipating Freiermuth doesn’t clear the concussion protocol and I’ll be forced to start the 60 year old TE, but he’s actually got some good chemistry with Herbert. I know, weird.

 

[sho nuff]

I absolutely will try to get to this in detail but we've got family coming in and I gotta get some stuff done.

Preliminarily.

Hurts>>Murray

I like your TE logic. Play Freirmuth if he plays.

Javonte had 19 touches for 81 yards including 4 receptions and is playing a...IDK what but they aren't good against the run at all.  I would only play Mitchell over him and even then IDK.

AB>Higgins

We seem to think alike week after week.  AB a risk...but also a huge ceiling.  Same thing with RJones.  Mitchell also a huge ceiling but the floor against TN and coming off of injury and covid scare me away from him.  Javonte is my guy.

 

[sho nuff]

FWIW this is what I’m doing this week. Also have Everett but mostly as a block. 

I’m anticipating Freiermuth doesn’t clear the concussion protocol and I’ll be forced to start the 60 year old TE, but he’s actually got some good chemistry with Herbert. I know, weird.

Yes...I dropped him to free up the spot and have him be available to me again Saturday (unless someone picks him up to block me...because the other 3 in the final are pretty solid at TE...me, not so much).

 

[Saint]

Week 16... somehow survived last week.  1/2 pt PPR... Need four of the following:

• CEH at PIT
  
• Antonio Brown at CAR (1st game back after injury and COVID)
  
• Amon-Ra St Brown at ATL (Been a target hog and Goff is on COVID list... can it continue?)
  
• Adam Thielen / KJ Osborn at LAR (Supposedly Thielen is back this week)
  
• MVS at CLE (Good week last week)
  
• Gabriel Davis at NE (Tough matchup this week)
  
• Marquez Callaway at MIA (Hit or miss)
  
• Rashod Batement at CIN 
  
• Tony Pollard at WAS
  

Right now, I have CEH, AB, Amon-Ra, and Thielen in.  Thinking:

• CEH has volume.  Volume is good.  My opponent also has Mahomes... so thinking between volume and potential catching TD.  Playing him makes sense.
  
• Antonio Brown.  Nervous about first start back, but no Godwin, possibly no Evans.  Brady has to throw it either to Tyler Johnson or Gronk or AB.  Brady wanted AB, so I think there is a value play here.
  
• Amon-Ra.  His target share has been great the last several weeks.  Goff is throwing to him and I love the matchup at ATL.  Think he is a good play.
  
• Thielen.  While I don't like the matchup, I think JJ draws Ramsey which should mean increased targets for Thielen and potential TDs when in close to the goal line.
  

Any help would be appreciated.

 

[Mister CIA]

For all those considering Dak or whatever is hidden behind door #2 this week, it's worth pointing out that Dak averages 28.4 ff ppg at home and 16.4 when on the road.  He's returning home for some home cooking these next two weeks.  I'll be starting him with confidence over the likes of Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz (of course). Save for a healthy Bucs team, he has the best offensive weapons in the league.

 

[Chaka]

Week 16... somehow survived last week.  1/2 pt PPR... Need four of the following:

• CEH at PIT
  
• Antonio Brown at CAR (1st game back after injury and COVID)
  
• Amon-Ra St Brown at ATL (Been a target hog and Goff is on COVID list... can it continue?)
  
• Adam Thielen / KJ Osborn at LAR (Supposedly Thielen is back this week)
  
• MVS at CLE (Good week last week)
  
• Gabriel Davis at NE (Tough matchup this week)
  
• Marquez Callaway at MIA (Hit or miss)
  
• Rashod Batement at CIN 
  
• Tony Pollard at WAS
  

Right now, I have CEH, AB, Amon-Ra, and Thielen in.  Thinking:

• CEH has volume.  Volume is good.  My opponent also has Mahomes... so thinking between volume and potential catching TD.  Playing him makes sense.
  
• Antonio Brown.  Nervous about first start back, but no Godwin, possibly no Evans.  Brady has to throw it either to Tyler Johnson or Gronk or AB.  Brady wanted AB, so I think there is a value play here.
  
• Amon-Ra.  His target share has been great the last several weeks.  Goff is throwing to him and I love the matchup at ATL.  Think he is a good play.
  
• Thielen.  While I don't like the matchup, I think JJ draws Ramsey which should mean increased targets for Thielen and potential TDs when in close to the goal line.
  

Any help would be appreciated.

I completely agree with your logic. Those are the four I would go with. Nervous about Amin-Ra sans Goff but not sure who I would sub in for him. Probably Pollard.

 

[dmac37]

PPR need 2 out of these, can be RB/WR or WR/WR, already starting 2 RB's

Foreman- high floor with volume vs a tough 49er run D and other 2 RB's active

Mooney- Bear offense is tough to invest in and Mooney has been inconsistent

G. Davis- Beasley out and Sanders questionable vs a tough NE defense

Perine- "IF" Mixon is out, Bal a tough run D but could get a lot of receptions

Other lesser RB options, mainly if COVID strikes one of their backfields-  Penny, Dillon, Darrel Williams, Jamaal Williams, Abdullah

 

[Chaka]

PPR need 2 out of these, can be RB/WR or WR/WR, already starting 2 RB's

Foreman- high floor with volume vs a tough 49er run D and other 2 RB's active

Mooney- Bear offense is tough to invest in and Mooney has been inconsistent

G. Davis- Beasley out and Sanders questionable vs a tough NE defense

Perine- "IF" Mixon is out, Bal a tough run D but could get a lot of receptions

Other lesser RB options, mainly if COVID strikes one of their backfields-  Penny, Dillon, Darrel Williams, Jamaal Williams, Abdullah

I like Foreman to get a lot of opportunities. Frankly he seems matchup proof in that regard. They're going to give him the ball regardless of game script. He leads the RBs in opportunities by a good margin since they cut Peterson. He may not be great but he's playing well. He's averaging 4.8+ ypc and 9 your over his last three games.

I like Mooney too because I think he should get the volume against the worst pass d in the league. Fields status isn't really an issue as Dalton may be better for Mooney. Monitor Robinson of course but Mooney has been the #1 in Chicago all year regardless of Robinson.

I like Davis's opportunity for sure but, for me, the only two Bills I play this week are Allen & Diggs. And that's mostly because you simply have to.

Perine is fine too but Foreman looks better and IIRC Mixon practiced today.

Foreman>Mooney>Perine>Davis

 

[Weebs210]

Standard scoring. Need to choose my flex. I have an abundance of riches and I will 100% choose wrong. Flex options: Swift, CEH, Miles Sanders, Foreman, or Ronald Jones.

Mixon and Jones locked into my rb spots atm. 

 

[Dacomish]

**This is to make the final, .5ppr for RB & 1ppr for WR**

Need 1 RB and 2 Flex from this group (first 3 I am leaning towards ATM):

R.Jones - Everyone predicts a huge game and is relatively fresh. His anvil hands do scare me a bit though. 

J.Jackson - Its an early game so if Ekeler gets cleared before tthe game then I have a few pivots below

A.J. Brown - If activated off of IR he can have a huge game tonight, he has a tendency to come back from absences and be a week winner. Everyone seems to forget his week 7 and week 8 games while battling the after effects of food poisoning or last year when he was a league winner after a few games off....

Also

Barkley - His usage has been around 15-20 touches but the explosiveness seems to have been sapped a bit and Booker looks like literally the same back right now. of the "bench" group he is the most "healthy".

Gibson - the Turf Toe concerns me as he had the same issue last year and missed 2 games with it. Practice time will be more dependent on this and he is also a later game so I'm not sure I want to take that chance. If it was an earlier game I would roll with him over Jackson if Gibson was active. 

Conner - Dude got me here when Barkley was hurt earlier in the year and never left my lineup. The Heel injury and very short week is concerning, but he bounced back quickly from the ankle injury and played last weekend. I think if he is active I need to consider him. 

Talk me down off the ledge of Jones/Jackson/AJ....

 

[Dacomish]

Standard scoring. Need to choose my flex. I have an abundance of riches and I will 100% choose wrong. Flex options: Swift, CEH, Miles Sanders, Foreman, or Ronald Jones.

Mixon and Jones locked into my rb spots atm. 

Ronald Jones is the hot hand this week, he is who I would go with. 

 

[starks]

Half point PPR pick 2 players

Ronald Jones

Tyler Lockett

Player A last 4 games - 15, 16, 8, 19 (Russel Gage)

Player B last 4 games - 7, 3, 0, 6 (Terry McLaurin)

 

[djjosee]

.5 PPR

RB: Ro Jones @ CAR (safest ?) or Swift @ ATL-> Pick 1

WR: G Davis @NE / Gage vs DET / St Brown @ATL / AJ Brown vs SF --> Rank

If by any chance I get eliminated and forget to return, thank you for the season.  Sometimes you we right and sometimes you were wrong, but the insight and comments were much appreciated!

DJ

 

[sho nuff]

19 hours ago, sho nuff said:
This will be a fun one...also based on what ends up happening in waivers. 

Standard Scoring.

First decision...which I thought Id never have to think twice about.  Kyler Murray vs. Jalen Hurts

Locked in at WR 1 and 2 (Jefferson and Kupp)

Locked in at RB 1 (Aaron Jones) and likely RB2 (Javonte Williams)

TE:  with the concussion dropped Freiermuth.  Could pick him back up Saturday or go with Jared Cook later.  Seems to be the top options.  Not loving any of it.

Leaving me with the question on my RB2 if I am convinced against Javonte and Flex.  Options:

Javonte already mentioned for RB2...not a great game last week...but seems his floor is that 7ish points with big upside.

Eli Mitchell if he plays.  (I want to like it...but the one thing TN does well is stop the run)

Tee Higgins...depleted Balt secondary...but he almost cost me this past weekend.

Saquon Barkley...he has been...well, ok, but not great.  Do I trust him?   Not so much.

Tony Pollard....only if something happens to Zeke between now and game time. 

Rashaad Penny...if he is even on my team by then.  As of now, he will be my possible drop for the free agents mentioned next

Antonio Brown...Godwin and Evans likely out...he could be huge...but also could be slowed being out for so long.

Ronald Jones...Fournette out...he is my #1 priority on waivers for 2 reasons.  Possible volume with no Lenny...and one of the other final 4 teams just lost Fournette.

As of now...I can pick one of those two guys up without dropping anyone as I have an open roster spot.  For the other I will have to drop a player...Penny seems the only real choice there....though, maybe Pollard especially now with the Zeke owner being out of the playoffs.

So QB choice...RB2 if not Javonte...and flex advice needed.
Expand  

I absolutely will try to get to this in detail but we've got family coming in and I gotta get some stuff done.

Preliminarily.

Hurts>>Murray

I like your TE logic. Play Freirmuth if he plays.

Javonte had 19 touches for 81 yards including 4 receptions and is playing a...IDK what but they aren't good against the run at all.  I would only play Mitchell over him and even then IDK.

AB>Higgins

Touching back on this after waivers and Mitchell being out.

As I sit here...its 

QB:  Hurts

RB:  Jones, Javonte

WR:  Kupp, Jefferson

No TE yet...cook or Freiermuth is where I will be and sort of leaning Cook at the moment.  With Ekeler on Covid list, could get more redzone looks.

Flex:  Ronald Jones

Almost feel bad for some leagues and teams as my bench will likely outscore the other semifinal matchup in our league (both teams hit hard by injury and covid).  My bench which may even outscore my own team

Kyler Murray, Barkley, Penny, Higgins, Antonio Brown, Pollard (well Mattison at the moment as well...but likely he is my late drop this week for a TE)

 

[Dacomish]

Half point PPR pick 2 players

Ronald Jones

Tyler Lockett

Player A last 4 games - 15, 16, 8, 19 (Russel Gage)

Player B last 4 games - 7, 3, 0, 6 (Terry McLaurin)

Lockett should be back and is the most explosive of the 4, so I'd go him (if cleared from COVID), and Ro-Jo....

 

[Gottabesweet]

PPR tough situation.  I need 4 here.  
 

Need to start 4. PPR 

Jonathan Taylor - Yes 
Ekeler/Jackson - 
Tyreek/Claypool - 
Waddle - Lean Yes 
Jeff Wilson - 

if I play Jeff Wilson tonight it’s at the expense of Ekeler, Tyreek, Waddle. 

opponent using Debo. 

 

[heckmanm]

Similar to @Gottabesweet, need to pick up to 3 in 0.5 PPR.  If I go with Wilson tonight I will have to sit one Jones or Jackson

• Chubb - YES
  
• Aaron Jones - YES unless his knee flares up
  
• Justin Jackson - good if Ekeler can't clear COVID
  
• Jeff Wilson - Mitchell OUT
  

Leaning Wilson to lock in points in case something goes wrong for the other guys before the weekend

 

[starks]

PPR tough situation.  I need 4 here.  
 

Need to start 4. PPR 

Jonathan Taylor - Yes 
Ekeler/Jackson - 
Tyreek/Claypool - 
Waddle - Lean Yes 
Jeff Wilson - 

if I play Jeff Wilson tonight it’s at the expense of Ekeler, Tyreek, Waddle. 

opponent using Debo. 

I think you have to air on the side of caution and play Wilson, just pray (like I have been doing to no avail) that deebo doesn't vulture rushing tds. Try to read the tea leaves on Tyreek and Ekeler throughout weekend and Sunday. If it were me I go Taylor, Waddle, Wilson and Tyreek if available then Ekeler if available then Jackson if Ekeler isn't available then Claypool. If you sit Wilson you still field a good lineup at worst Taylor, Waddle, Claypool and Ekeler/Jackson. Just my two cents good luck. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

Pringle, Robinson or Gordon (Mecole is rostered)?

Or....Sutton?

Which Chief to replace Cooks (COVID)?

Start or roll with Bateman?

Im presuming this is a judgement free zone with no WR3 shaming.

TIA

ETA: full PPR + return yardage 

 

[Capella]

First time doing this, desperate. This is my 9th year running this league, 7th time making the playoffs and I am unbelievably 0-6 in the semifinals. I have to win one, I can’t take the BS on the group chat anymore. 
 

PPR need 3 for my flex

Foreman

Amari Cooper 

Miles Sanders 

Gallup 

McLaurin 

currently leaning Foreman, Cooper, Sanders 

 

[Capella]

Half point PPR pick 2 players

Ronald Jones

Tyler Lockett

Player A last 4 games - 15, 16, 8, 19 (Russel Gage)

Player B last 4 games - 7, 3, 0, 6 (Terry McLaurin)

I’d say RoJo and Gage. I’m done with McLaurin.