Pats are 1.5 point favorites, Wash 3 point underdogs.
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Who will own pick 1.1? Chi. And then what? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter IHEARTFF
- Start date
Fields' shine wore off. I doubt he's still worth a high first.
I think Chicago tried w him long enough that they can move on and be at peace with it.
No team with a questionable GM or HC is taking a QB unless ownership will allow them the two years of assumed losing while the rookie learns. Some we sort of know won't be afforded that so they'll be developing their own and in the FA market for one.
(Depending which teams but) 4-6 ball park will be tackles, plural. That is going to be an odd sweet spot in this draft. It may have to be a draft day trade (I doubt it, very predictable) but I feel like there's 10+ teams that would love to be 4-6.
Soooo if this holds true then Jayden Daniels at 7 could be another big trade spot.
There's an unusual common need and desperation to this draft. I don't think I've ever seen such bad line play or so many QBs questioned.
If I were the Bears and staying w Fields, I'd trade down to four then down again to seven and maybe even again- they'd wind up with an army of rookies or picks the next two years and still probably get a (nother) top 10-15 pic
I think Chicago tried w him long enough that they can move on and be at peace with it.
No team with a questionable GM or HC is taking a QB unless ownership will allow them the two years of assumed losing while the rookie learns. Some we sort of know won't be afforded that so they'll be developing their own and in the FA market for one.
(Depending which teams but) 4-6 ball park will be tackles, plural. That is going to be an odd sweet spot in this draft. It may have to be a draft day trade (I doubt it, very predictable) but I feel like there's 10+ teams that would love to be 4-6.
Soooo if this holds true then Jayden Daniels at 7 could be another big trade spot.
There's an unusual common need and desperation to this draft. I don't think I've ever seen such bad line play or so many QBs questioned.
If I were the Bears and staying w Fields, I'd trade down to four then down again to seven and maybe even again- they'd wind up with an army of rookies or picks the next two years and still probably get a (nother) top 10-15 pic
-OZ-
Footballguy
I hear that, but I do think SoS is slightly better than flipping a coin.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Pretend for a second whomever is drafting for Washington really thinks Caleb is the next big franchise QB and better than Maye or Daniels. Let’s pretend they’re as sure about that as you can be of any draft pick. They need to make that trade up.
But yeah, if they think it’s basically a coin flip they’ll stand still.
We’ve seen too many #1 picks greatly outplay the #2 (it happens the other way of course, see Stroud) that the move up is easily justified if you feel that much better about one of these guys.
That said, Washington (much like Tennessee) really needs to address their OL. almost to the point it’s worth trading down to 3-8 spots they can get a nice offer.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I was mildly pissed with that miss. (Titans, I really want a top 5 pick for Alt or Fashanu) but 6 might be fine if Daniels gets into the top 5.
Boston
Footballguy
As a Pats fan I hate that Washington may get a better pick then them even though Washington actually beat them.
I still think the Bears won't keep Fields but I think if they moved back to 3 they could get MHJ and a first or something on par with a first round value.
Recall a few years ago when the Bears moved from 3 to 2 they paid 67, 111 and a third round pick in the next years draft which works out to a high second on most trade value charts and again that was just moving from 3 to 2.
As someone who just won the rights to draft MHJ in two leagues I must say I'm not thrilled how the draft order got shook up this week. MHJ in Arizona sure sounds a lot better then NE or what I would consider the absolute worst case scenario of Chicago keeping Fields, trading back and drafting him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s funny…as much as I think CHI would be foolish to deal Fields, as a dude with 2 shares of Fields virtually anywhere they send him will likely be an upgrade.
That said, ironically, with the picks they have they could parlay that into a heap of talent to build around Fields, including MH2.
But they probably won’t, because they’re a bad organization.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
As a Washington fan, I'm counting on one of those teams trading up to the 1.2 to draft a QB. I'm looking at Giants, Falcons, Vikings. That should bring in quite the hall.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd deal Fields. He looks much different off a rookie deal than he does on it. It's a bad financial decision to spend your capital on other positional rookie contracts when you could have a franchise QB on a rookie deal. If Williams is all they say he is, then your decision is made for you just because of the CBA.
Chicago is a bad organization if they do exercise the option and then extend him at the expense of other positions.
That's my two cents on the matter.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And if they miss they’re going to look pretty dumb for letting him go, financial decisions be damned.
Dealing the 1.01 for a boatload of picks can get them a boatload of rookie contracts to work around Fields salary while maximizing their chances of hitting on talent to fill their many holes.
N Zone
Footballguy
They had this choice last year and kept Fields and traded the pick to Carolina. That was a great decision. I think they should double down and keep Fields again, but if they trade down they should only move to 2 or 3 and get Marvin Harrison Jr - he's a future All-Pro and Hall of Famer.
beef
Footballguy
Exactly. When Joe Barry's defense humiliates you, it's time to move on. Offensive Coordinator should go too.
I do hope the Bears keep fields though because I enjoy having 3 bye weeks every year.
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osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
I like Justin Fields and think he's a starting QB in this league and may be very successful in the future. I think I have defended Justin as much and maybe more than most. He was a big piece for me on my dynasty team's run (humble brag) toward winning a "ship". I have followed his career from college to now. In my opinion, the smart thing to do if the Bears think any of the draft quarterbacks are even in talent and or more talented than Justin is to trade him. They could still move down from #1 and also have #9 to gain assets. They could select the future QB at #1 trade Justin and acquire even more capital. They could select their QB at #1 and use #9 with other assets and move up/down if they want.
The options are endless. I can not go through all the options or the post would be pages long "LOL" but you get the point. The one thing I think is for sure is that Justin Fields is going to want to get paid sooner or later. His agent is David Mulugheta from "Athletes First". I do not think this is being talked about enough. His agent and agency pride themselves on top-dollar contracts and have a reputation for not being team-friendly and all agents are to look out for the well-being of their clients above all but some agents will work more with teams than others. The Bears could select the 5th year option on Justin and kick the can down the road. The option decision is in May and is estimated to be 23.5 million. I would hope if they decided to roll long-term with Fields they would go ahead and sign him long-term now. Because if you believe then you believe and should bet a better deal now than later. The Justin Fields camp still will want to get paid and paid as the market dictates not what perceived value is. Daniel Jones's contract was 4 years 160 million. Lamar Jackson was 5 years 260 million. Justin Herbert's contract is 262.5 million for 5 years. If we look at this I would say Daniel Jones's contract is the floor but not really because I can not see a world Justin would go for that. Is Justin worth 200 million compared to a rookie QB on a rookie deal? And I think his agency would want north of 200 million. I know I would not settle for less if I was his agent. It's a huge factor in what is going to happen for the Bears and Justin.
Trading Justin Fields not only gets more draft capital it frees up a bunch of money to build around your new QB for years to come. The Bears still would have a ton of options in this draft to move around up or down however they feel is needed. They have another top-ten pick to play with. Justin Fields shown enough to be the franchise guy for the next 4-5 years for 200 million plus? If we are being honest and looking at his numbers/stats and film. I just can not see how someone can say he has. So, let's say you look at what he could be. I can roll with that but in this offense? Luke Getsy's offense? Or are you hiring new staff and having Justin learn a new offense? I don't think he adjusted well the last time they placed him in that position.
I love Justin Fields. I do. I like what he can do with his legs and outside the pocket. I just honestly can not say I think he is a QB that can win Super Bowls. I at least do not think he is at that point right now and I'm not 100 percent sure he can be. I think the Bears will have to pay elite QB money to him at some point or eat a lot of money down the road. I think the smartest move for the long-term health and prospects of the Chicago Bears is to move him now. It's probably better for my dynasty team he stays depending on where goes but I'm a bit worried he ends up in Denver or New England or worse. Atlanta would be interesting depending on who they hire but why trade him to an NFC team if you do not have to?
A disclosure. I have not looked at the QBs in this draft or 2025's class. At least not like the Bear's scouting department has. If they feel Justin is better than these QBs then you have to keep Justin right? I think that goes without saying. I suppose they could kick the decision down the road to the 2025 draft depending on the QBs in that class. If they pass on drafting one this year and take the 5th year option on Justin I would think that is what they decided if they do take the 5th year option. As a Buckeye fan and a fan of Justin Fields. I hope whatever happens he succeeds.
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abrunn1133
Footballguy
Fields is just ok. He really struggles throwing the football when people are open. The Bears have to take a QB in the draft that can run an NFL offense, and someone who does not hold the ball for 5 seconds in the pocket. Chicago is building a really good roster, and they have a ton of draft capital in 2024. In 2024, you cannot have a QB that completes 60% of his passes, and a 4/3 TD/INT ratio. My money is that they trade Fields for a 2nd/3rd round pick and take either Williams or Maye in the draft.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
They are basically all mega athletes now.
Just straight up athleticism simply isn't enough. Eventually that guy get's found out, and often it doesn't take that long.
He'd be a good QB for a team rebuilding and in need of some playmaking and leadership, or one that is just sick of having total bums at the position. But if the chance to take a decent shot on levelling on from someone like him falls into your lap, as it has done for the Bears, you probably have to take it.
Just straight up athleticism simply isn't enough. Eventually that guy get's found out, and often it doesn't take that long.
He'd be a good QB for a team rebuilding and in need of some playmaking and leadership, or one that is just sick of having total bums at the position. But if the chance to take a decent shot on levelling on from someone like him falls into your lap, as it has done for the Bears, you probably have to take it.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Bears' fans finally starting to see the light.
jumper
Footballguy
So I asked earlier and got no bites, let me try again.
Imagine you're the Bears GM, and you're sitting with the 1.01 and 1.09 pick in the 2024. And you have Justin Fields as your QB1, which requires you to soon decide whether to pick up his 5th year option or not and/or extend.
What's the *minimum* compensation you need to trade down from the 1.01 pick? Or do you stick with the 1.01 and pick the top rated QB on your draft board?
And what's your ideal ratio of moving down vs. acquiring future draft capital? For instance, do you only want to move down a couple spots in the 2024 first round so you can still draft MJH Jr? Or do you want to trade back significantly, and forgo a high 2024 pick in favor of (hopefully multiple) later year 1st round picks?
Also, if you say "trade the pick," then for extra credit feel free to say if you'd stick with Fields, sign a top free agent like Kirk Cousins, or do something else entirely for your 2024 season at QB.
Imagine you're the Bears GM, and you're sitting with the 1.01 and 1.09 pick in the 2024. And you have Justin Fields as your QB1, which requires you to soon decide whether to pick up his 5th year option or not and/or extend.
What's the *minimum* compensation you need to trade down from the 1.01 pick? Or do you stick with the 1.01 and pick the top rated QB on your draft board?
And what's your ideal ratio of moving down vs. acquiring future draft capital? For instance, do you only want to move down a couple spots in the 2024 first round so you can still draft MJH Jr? Or do you want to trade back significantly, and forgo a high 2024 pick in favor of (hopefully multiple) later year 1st round picks?
Also, if you say "trade the pick," then for extra credit feel free to say if you'd stick with Fields, sign a top free agent like Kirk Cousins, or do something else entirely for your 2024 season at QB.
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
As I Bears fan, I like Jayden Daniels so trading down a bit is ok by me. Say NE fell in love with Williams and offered two firsts and a second. I'd take that.
The deal obviously masters. Hell, if Vegas wanted to trade to 1.1, I'd listen. At that point we're probably talking about two 1st, a 2nd and 3rd an a player like Crosby
abrunn1133
Footballguy
This is a very difficult question to answer as there are so many variables. All of this is dependent on how the Bears evaluate the available players. Let’s say they have Caleb Williams rated as 95 (arbitrary number), Drake Maye rated at 90, and Jayden Daniels 85. They would require at the very least, more than 5 “points” in return to move down one spot. Whether that means they get the 2nd overall pick and a 2nd/3rd rounder is all based on their system of value. They would need at least <10 “points” to move down to spots in the draft. The Bears would also have to take into account the trade value of Justin Fields. I would imagine they could get somewhere around a mid-to-late 2nd round pick for Fields, or some combination of trading picks with another team to net a 2nd rounder.
All of these scenarios are being considered by people who get paid millions of dollars to do this. Obviously they know way more than I do.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
We have a blue print and it's what they got last year for the pick. Having said that. I don't trade the pick until I bring in the top 3 QBs for private workouts. I need more then film to evaluate these guys. I need to see if any of them give me that "he's got it" feeling. In my opinion of they have already made a decision they have failed.
If I'm going to move on from Fields I'm not moving from the 1.1. No way I'm going to put myself in position of needing a QB and then not having my pick.
If I'm keeping Fields I'd move off the 1.1 and would collect a haul of future 1's on the idea I'm giving Fields 1-2 more years and providing myself a war chest of draft capital to get a QB if I don't like the results. Which I've said before is really what Chicago did last year, which I thought was smart, and it's really what Philly did a few years ago while they were still evaluating Hurts.
I'm either giving Fields another year or two or drafting a QB at 1.1.
massraider
Footballguy
Right.
Keeping Fields and trading the pick, or trading the pick and keeping Fields aren't the only two options.
What if they love Drake Maye, and WAS wants to swap? They can make a big trade, trade Fields, get the QB they like, and add even MORE draft capital.
Super exciting time for Bears fans.
rockaction
Footballguy
I take the top QB on the board.
If I'm not doing that, then I'd want a 2024 1st and 2nd, 2025 1st, and a player equal to a first-round caliber player. That's to move down a few spots. If I'm moving down significantly, then I'd want more.
Not move back significantly. It depends how far down in the draft one would fall in order to figure out compensation, too.
I'm not trading the pick, but if I did, I'd try and pick up Fields's option. If that proved untenable to the player (he demands an extension), then I might sign a free agent instead. Because Fields still needs to be evaluated.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I don't have a strong opinion about if Fields is the answer for the Bears at QB or not. This decision is very much about that.
I do have the opinion that QBs tend to play better on their 2nd contracts than their first though. It just takes a lot of reps for these QBs to play at the highest level they are capable of in their careers.
This opinion is based off of research of QB career statistical output. Even the QBs who do well early on in their careers tend to play at a higher level than this later on in their careers. See Tom Brady for one example of this but there are others.
Then you have the QBs who don't do well early in their careers but play better later on in their careers. See Geno Smith and Rich Gannon as examples of this although there are others.
I think the best way for the Bears to improve their overall team would be by trading the 1st overall pick for a haul of picks/players. Then using the draft to take offensive line and defense.
If the Bears don't believe in Fields then they take a QB and not get all the draft capital in return for trading the 1st overall pick. They draft who they think is the best QB but do they get a QB who's career starts off like Young or Stroud?
Even the Bears don't know that and they may not entirely know until that QB is on their 2nd contract either.
I think the best way for the Bears to improve is by keeping Fields unless they think he is a lost cause.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter
If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol
If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.
Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?
The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.
TartanLion
Footballguy
To me, the only recourse is to take a QB and trade Fields. They are building a good D and have had and will have tons of high draft picks. Coaching seems okay. There’s good QBs in this draft, scout and pick the best one. You are re-setting and getting another 5 years of a rookie QB deal and can keep building the roster with available cap space and draft picks. They could end up with a Browns/Jets esque roster and if they get the QB correct , a Stroud/Herbert/Burrows type of level of QB at the helm.
Fields will be needing paid sometime soon. If I’m the GM I don’t want to have to make that decision, if the above is a viable alternative.
Fields will be needing paid sometime soon. If I’m the GM I don’t want to have to make that decision, if the above is a viable alternative.
This is the point of a scouting department and pre-draft interviews. I'm assuming that one of the top 3 guys will be the most preferred and my hope is that the Bears select the QB they like the best. I'm not married to the idea of Caleb Williams. I see a lot to like in his film and I definitely see some concerning elements of his game. If they get the feeling that he isn't the right fit in terms of maturity or work ethic, they may put one of Daniels or Maye above him. My main point is that I want them to be honest about what they have in Fields and what they want for the franchise. The goal is not to be average and the leadership should be striving for greatness at all times. I don't think Fields has NFL greatness ahead of him and I think if they are honest, the Bears know it. When Poles made the trade with Carolina last year, it was a contingency plan in case Fields didn't sufficiently develop. That is how it played out, now they are in great position to move on. This is not a time for cold feet and half measures (Eberflus), it is a time for the Bears to take a shot at greatness.
Max Power
Footballguy
I think Justin has NFL "very good" ahead of him and can lead a good team deep into the post season.
My hesitation with shooting for greatness is with the NFL QB evaluation process. It's already a crap shoot and Chicago doesn't have a good track record at getting it right or developing a QB.
More often than not the best QB in a draft class isn't even the first one off the board. Not getting it right would not only set the team back, but the cost associated with the miss I'd quiet substantial as well.
Were talking about 4 or 5 assets in a trade. Bears got 5 from the last haul. Any team bringing in 9-10 quality picks/players over 3 years should be a very good team.
Eta: The Bears strategy of drafting a QB with a lame duck HC has proven to not be a successful strategy either.
So the next Aaron Rodgers?
Max Power
Footballguy
The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.
If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.
JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.
Team Chaos
Footballguy
If they were striving for greatness, they would not have kept Eberflus
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.
It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.
Max Power
Footballguy
Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.
Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
I posted last off-season that Stroud was the guy. Not sure how anyone could have Young ahead of him. We could have had Stroud and Carter if we played our cards right.
I'd be ok with Williams or Maye this year. Fields is what he is. He's athletic and tough but not a big time qb. Restart the clock. Both of those guys appear to do things that Fields has proven he can't.
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
If only Papa Bear were alive to step in like he did in '82. He overrode the GM and went and got Ditka himself.
Max Power
Footballguy
Plenty of experts had Young over Stroud. I preferred Stroud as well, but the truth is Stroud's season was shocking to the majority of the NFL. I think plenty of teams would give up 3 firsts to have Stroud right now.
If the Bears did draft Stroud #1, they wouldn't have been in position to take Carter or have DJ Moore. I'm ok with the Wright pick over Carter, but Carter is the better player.
Those players have done things at the college level that Fields struggles with on the Pro level. Coming out Fields was better than Maye. Williams may still be a generational talent, but two of his biggest knocks are that he holds the ball too long and doesn't play well within structure. Those are also two of the biggest knocks on JF.
I'm definitely in the camp of if the Bears go QB at #1, it needs to be Williams.
I see they fired a lot of coaches and have these picks and added free agents....general sense, I don't see the Bears as any different from last year at this time.
Is it people thought Fields got it together and would grow exponentially in 23? Then ok makes sense.
I'm here waiting for Bears fans to admit Fields is the first QB since the 60s to throw for 2400 yards and be praised for it.
When does "looks good" and "could be" potential become impatience? I think they are at that point and they should trade him, draft their QB, hire their guys and move on.
I live in Oklahoma so I've heard of Caleb Williams since he signed a letter of intent and how he's next after a trio of Sooners went to the pros. (Add Rattler somewhere) When Riley left and took half the staff n team with him, then all the USC articles...Caleb seems like a prodigy to me. Is he?
Ya don't pass on that in sports. There's hundreds of thousands of articles from when this has happened and bit a team.
I don't see this as a complicated decision at all. It seems obvious to me.
Is it people thought Fields got it together and would grow exponentially in 23? Then ok makes sense.
I'm here waiting for Bears fans to admit Fields is the first QB since the 60s to throw for 2400 yards and be praised for it.
When does "looks good" and "could be" potential become impatience? I think they are at that point and they should trade him, draft their QB, hire their guys and move on.
I live in Oklahoma so I've heard of Caleb Williams since he signed a letter of intent and how he's next after a trio of Sooners went to the pros. (Add Rattler somewhere) When Riley left and took half the staff n team with him, then all the USC articles...Caleb seems like a prodigy to me. Is he?
Ya don't pass on that in sports. There's hundreds of thousands of articles from when this has happened and bit a team.
I don't see this as a complicated decision at all. It seems obvious to me.
jumper
Footballguy
Top tier OL and defense with a journeyman QB is exactly the formula for the Browns this year after Watson went down. Of course, it may also require a good head coach which the Bears don't right now.
Trading Fields and drafting his replacement with the 1.01 is a high risk, high reward bet. *IF* it pays off, you're way ahead of the game as a franchise QB is the hardest thing to get correct. If you're a risk seeker, that's what your choice is going to be. Your upside is Josh Allen, your downside is Trey Lance.
Keeping Fields and trading the 1.01 for a haul is the risk adverse bet; safer in a lot of ways since "hit percentages" of drafting OL (and to a lesser extent, WR) with a high first round pick is much better than the success ratio of picking QBs in that same high 1st round range. That's the Lions approach by trading Stafford and building around Goff. You're going to field a very solid team, but if your QB turns back into a pumpkin during the playoffs, then you're screwed.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Poles has repeatedly mentioned that his plan is to build through the draft, with an emphasis on both lines. Take that for what you will.
This may be controversial but, especially considering their contract year, yes. I think the bears would be better off with Young. Talk about a team with no help for the QB, Carolinw was awful. I'm sure young would have liked having DJ Moore. The games I watched of Young I saw more (purely passing) potential than I have seen with Fields. Given that Justin is an elite runner, maybe it's a draw - but the point is that elite running ages a lot worse than elite passing. Compare Tom Brady's lifespan to Cam Newton's, or, if that is too limited a sample size, show me the elite runner that could do it well into their 30s.
Sunday Gravy
Footballguy
Last year, had the one pick, completely understandable to want to give Fields another year of evaluation. Now that's done. He didn't improve much at all and we were lucky enough to get the one pick again. That's almost unheard of in this league. If this GM thinks it makes sense to give yet another year of evaluation and pass on potential greatness, then that's another opening we will be filling in the next 2 years.
