Who will own pick 1.1? Chi. And then what? (1 Viewer)

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

A GM with a plan to draft a QB at pick #1 does not go out and trade a 2nd and a market price contract for a veteran DE...at least in a logical world. I don't think Poles has any intention of trading Fields unless he's able to secure better than a 2nd round pick. Build through the draft and the best way to do so is by trading down the 1.01, getting high draft assets over the next 2-3 years, and keeping Fields.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

Why do they need to stay in the top 4 to get Harrison when there are other WR graded similarly high as Harrison?

 

[Max Power]

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

This may be controversial but, especially considering their contract year, yes. I think the bears would be better off with Young. Talk about a team with no help for the QB, Carolinw was awful. I'm sure young would have liked having DJ Moore. The games I watched of Young I saw more (purely passing) potential than I have seen with Fields. Given that Justin is an elite runner, maybe it's a draw - but the point is that elite running ages a lot worse than elite passing. Compare Tom Brady's lifespan to Cam Newton's, or, if that is too limited a sample size, show me the elite runner that could do it well into their 30s.

But the problem would be that DJ Moore is still on Carolina and Young would be throwing to Mooney (who is playing his way out of the league), Tyler Scott, Trent Taylor and E. St. Brown. Which I would argue is a worse WR room than what Young had in Carolina. I think Young will get better, but I wouldn't say the Bears would be in a better spot today with Young and the #1 overall.

I'll give you that JF's running game will have a shorter shelf life, that is fair. Its an elite skill at the moment, but save him if he can't continue to develop.

 

[Chreesto]

y?

This may be controversial but, especially considering their contract year, yes. I think the bears would be better off with Young. Talk about a team with no help for the QB, Carolinw was awful. I'm sure young would have liked having DJ Moore. The games I watched of Young I saw more (purely passing) potential than I have seen with Fields. Given that Justin is an elite runner, maybe it's a draw - but the point is that elite running ages a lot worse than elite passing. Compare Tom Brady's lifespan to Cam Newton's, or, if that is too limited a sample size, show me the elite runner that could do it well into their 30s.

But the problem would be that DJ Moore is still on Carolina and Young would be throwing to Mooney (who is playing his way out of the league), Tyler Scott, Trent Taylor and E. St. Brown. Which I would argue is a worse WR room than what Young had in Carolina. I think Young will get better, but I wouldn't say the Bears would be in a better spot today with Young and the #1 overall.

I'll give you that JF's running game will have a shorter shelf life, that is fair. Its an elite skill at the moment, but save him if he can't continue to develop.

Yeah, I hear you and am with you about Moore's value. I think that (with Young) the Bears would still be in a position to draft a great WR in this draft. It has to be mentioned, though, that this scenario (early pick on QB) was always (since last year's trade) the alternate course of action, should Fields fail to develop. I hate the idea that feelings for Fields and a fear of striking out, might keep the bears from seizing the opportunity that they went to great lengths to secure. More than any franchise, the Bears need a great QB. It is time. I would definitely be interested in keeping Fields and trading down to get a lower tier guy (nix, penix, mccarthy, etc) and then letting him sit for a year, ala mahomes.

 

[Max Power]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

A GM with a plan to draft a QB at pick #1 does not go out and trade a 2nd and a market price contract for a veteran DE...at least in a logical world. I don't think Poles has any intention of trading Fields unless he's able to secure better than a 2nd round pick. Build through the draft and the best way to do so is by trading down the 1.01, getting high draft assets over the next 2-3 years, and keeping Fields.

If you look at the rebuild plan as a whole, it does feel like Poles' plan is on track.
Year 1 - He takes over the team and completely guts it. Trades away contracts and talent for future assets and just tanks out the year. this was a start fresh year.
Year 2 - Bears get sold as a potential playoff team. A lot of people were predicting about 8 wins this year. Bears started horribly and still got to 7 with three historic losses.
Year 3 - Now you have to make the playoffs and hopefully win the division
Year 4 - Deep playoff push

This is a reasonable plan and timeline for a GM to push and as of now its on track. I don't love Flus, but he is doing what was expected of him. No coach would be good with the 2022 Roster and this year was hopefully a learning experience. I think the continuity message is good and not freaking out that we didn't go from #1 pick to the playoffs the first year is acceptable.

This offseason probably makes or breaks his legacy. The Fields call won't be easy, but I'll probably support what they do. The only thing I would find unacceptable is staying at #1 and not taking a QB. The players are still supporting JF and they work with him every day. He has their vote, which shouldn't be ignored either.

 

[Max Power]

y?

This may be controversial but, especially considering their contract year, yes. I think the bears would be better off with Young. Talk about a team with no help for the QB, Carolinw was awful. I'm sure young would have liked having DJ Moore. The games I watched of Young I saw more (purely passing) potential than I have seen with Fields. Given that Justin is an elite runner, maybe it's a draw - but the point is that elite running ages a lot worse than elite passing. Compare Tom Brady's lifespan to Cam Newton's, or, if that is too limited a sample size, show me the elite runner that could do it well into their 30s.

But the problem would be that DJ Moore is still on Carolina and Young would be throwing to Mooney (who is playing his way out of the league), Tyler Scott, Trent Taylor and E. St. Brown. Which I would argue is a worse WR room than what Young had in Carolina. I think Young will get better, but I wouldn't say the Bears would be in a better spot today with Young and the #1 overall.

I'll give you that JF's running game will have a shorter shelf life, that is fair. Its an elite skill at the moment, but save him if he can't continue to develop.

Yeah, I hear you and am with you about Moore's value. I think that (with Young) the Bears would still be in a position to draft a great WR in this draft. It has to be mentioned, though, that this scenario (early pick on QB) was always (since last year's trade) the alternate course of action, should Fields fail to develop. I hate the idea that feelings for Fields and a fear of striking out, might keep the bears from seizing the opportunity that they went to great lengths to secure. More than any franchise, the Bears need a great QB. It is time. I would definitely be interested in keeping Fields and trading down to get a lower tier guy (nix, penix, mccarthy, etc) and then letting him sit for a year, ala mahomes.

I don't really love either of the top two options at QB in this draft. If I did, I'd support the swing for the fences move. IF Poles likes one (Williams), I'm on board... Taking a lower tier guy scares me off even more though. At that point I'd feel like the Bears are playing it too safe. Nix and Penix are only months younger than JF and I don't think McCarthy has had enough reps to be looked at as a Franchise level guy. We also worry about the lack of stability within the organization, with the Bears luck they would go in 2025 with a new HC that hates both QBs.

If the Bears trade down and get a 2025 first and maybe a future second, they again are set up with the draft capital they need to move around and get who they want in 2025 should JF really not develop.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

Why do they need to stay in the top 4 to get Harrison when there are other WR graded similarly high as Harrison?

I haven’t seen Harrison outside the top 4 anywhere. Could happen, but I doubt it. Arizona would run to the podium.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have a 2. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

ETA: Bears traded their 2nd for Sweat.

 

[Max Power]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

Why do they need to stay in the top 4 to get Harrison when there are other WR graded similarly high as Harrison?

I haven’t seen Harrison outside the top 4 anywhere. Could happen, but I doubt it. Arizona would run to the podium.

And that's fine. He has the bloodlines and a very good player.

There are other WR that will be available at pick 9 that should be similarly good prospects as Harrison.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have a 2. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

ETA: Bears traded their 2nd for Sweat.

Just follow Poles' philosophy and timeline. He planned for a 4 year rebuild to put the Bears in a position to contend. If he was going to draft a QB it would have been last year. Poles and the rest of the front office has faith in JF. The locker room will go to bat for JF. Poles will trade down from the #1 for a boatload of draft/personnel capital like they did last year. Draft both sides of the line, one of the big 3 WRs, and continue his plan. One thing I've come to expect from Poles is that he has a plan and will stick to it. It's a welcome change from Pace, who was seemingly swayed by his HC and the media many, many times and just didn't have a cohesive, long term plan.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

Yeah.

It would be great to get the best of a good WR pool of course.

I just wonder if they won't still get a good one if they wait until pick 9 though. It seems like they can.

 

[Max Power]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

I've heard Hunter's last contract had a clause prohibiting the use of a Franchise tag on him. He is 30 years old and rumored to want a 4 year deal which makes the last year or two probably not a great deal. Hes still a difference maker until proven otherwise.

I think Harrison and Nabers are almost bust-proof. Nabers may not even be a step down from Harrison. Odunze looks to be #3 and should still go in the top 10-15 picks. I like a lot of what I see in him, but he has a lower floor than the other two. Him at #9 works or there is also the option to look at Brock Bowers.

Bowers may actually be the third best pass catching option in this class, but I don't think he fits well with what Chicago has historically done with two TEs on the field. If they get a good OC who can maximize Kmet/Bowers combo, it would interest me a lot more.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

I've heard Hunter's last contract had a clause prohibiting the use of a Franchise tag on him. He is 30 years old and rumored to want a 4 year deal which makes the last year or two probably not a great deal. Hes still a difference maker until proven otherwise.

I think Harrison and Nabers are almost bust-proof. Nabers may not even be a step down from Harrison. Odunze looks to be #3 and should still go in the top 10-15 picks. I like a lot of what I see in him, but he has a lower floor than the other two. Him at #9 works or there is also the option to look at Brock Bowers.

Bowers may actually be the third best pass catching option in this class, but I don't think he fits well with what Chicago has historically done with two TEs on the field. If they get a good OC who can maximize Kmet/Bowers combo, it would interest me a lot more.

I wasn't really considering Bowers since Kmet is decent. But sure that would also be an option.

Hunter is 30 already? Man I'm old. Seems like yesterday he was the youngest player to get 50 sacks and so on.

 

[Max Power]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

It really is an intriguing class. Egbuka went back to school though. I like Brian Thomas as my #4 guy, but think he'll go in the 20-30 range of the draft. So many options right now.

Ideally (realistically?) I'd like the Bears to drop to #6 in a trade with the NYG. Pickup pick 47, 2025 1st, 2026 2nd, and WanDale Robinson or Schmitz Jr. Grab Nabers at 6 and Dallas Turner at 9. 2nd rd can now address RB\OL\DL\S

 

[Max Power]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

I've heard Hunter's last contract had a clause prohibiting the use of a Franchise tag on him. He is 30 years old and rumored to want a 4 year deal which makes the last year or two probably not a great deal. Hes still a difference maker until proven otherwise.

I think Harrison and Nabers are almost bust-proof. Nabers may not even be a step down from Harrison. Odunze looks to be #3 and should still go in the top 10-15 picks. I like a lot of what I see in him, but he has a lower floor than the other two. Him at #9 works or there is also the option to look at Brock Bowers.

Bowers may actually be the third best pass catching option in this class, but I don't think he fits well with what Chicago has historically done with two TEs on the field. If they get a good OC who can maximize Kmet/Bowers combo, it would interest me a lot more.

I wasn't really considering Bowers since Kmet is decent. But sure that would also be an option.

Hunter is 30 already? Man I'm old. Seems like yesterday he was the youngest player to get 50 sacks and so on.

Bowers is such a wildcard this year. He could go anywhere from #5 to #15. I can't imagine he would make it past Indy at #15.

Hunter is still 29, but turns 30 this year.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

It really is an intriguing class. Egbuka went back to school though. I like Brian Thomas as my #4 guy, but think he'll go in the 20-30 range of the draft. So many options right now.

Ideally (realistically?) I'd like the Bears to drop to #6 in a trade with the NYG. Pickup pick 47, 2025 1st, 2026 2nd, and WanDale Robinson or Schmitz Jr. Grab Nabers at 6 and Dallas Turner at 9. 2nd rd can now address RB\OL\DL\S

Woof. Jones' cap hit in 2024 is 47million. IF they cut him, the dead cap hit is closer to 70 million. I'm not sure the Giants can afford to move up.

 

[Max Power]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

It really is an intriguing class. Egbuka went back to school though. I like Brian Thomas as my #4 guy, but think he'll go in the 20-30 range of the draft. So many options right now.

Ideally (realistically?) I'd like the Bears to drop to #6 in a trade with the NYG. Pickup pick 47, 2025 1st, 2026 2nd, and WanDale Robinson or Schmitz Jr. Grab Nabers at 6 and Dallas Turner at 9. 2nd rd can now address RB\OL\DL\S

Woof. Jones' cap hit in 2024 is 47million. IF they cut him, the dead cap hit is closer to 70 million. I'm not sure the Giants can afford to move up.

I don't envy the Giants at all right now. I was reading that they sound like they may be ready to find an alternative to Jones and could draft a rookie QB at 6. NYG are also the type of organization to move up and make a splash like that. That dead money is brutal. I wonder if he has any trade value at all?

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

It really is an intriguing class. Egbuka went back to school though. I like Brian Thomas as my #4 guy, but think he'll go in the 20-30 range of the draft. So many options right now.

Ideally (realistically?) I'd like the Bears to drop to #6 in a trade with the NYG. Pickup pick 47, 2025 1st, 2026 2nd, and WanDale Robinson or Schmitz Jr. Grab Nabers at 6 and Dallas Turner at 9. 2nd rd can now address RB\OL\DL\S

Woof. Jones' cap hit in 2024 is 47million. IF they cut him, the dead cap hit is closer to 70 million. I'm not sure the Giants can afford to move up.

I don't envy the Giants at all right now. I was reading that they sound like they may be ready to find an alternative to Jones and could draft a rookie QB at 6. NYG are also the type of organization to move up and make a splash like that. That dead money is brutal. I wonder if he has any trade value at all?

Not with his current contract. THe dead money becomes a more palatable 22mil after this season, though. Maybe they take a rookie and cut jones after the 24 season?

 

[Kiddnets]

Next season D Jones cap hit goes down to $11M if post 6/1 cut. I can see the Giants drafting a QB and letting him sit for most of the season behind Jones. I think QB to the Giants is very possible - they have 2 2d rd picks - could be ammo to move up.

 

[Max Power]

Saw an interesting hypothetical trade...

Chargers Trade Justin Herbert for 1.01 this year. Who says no?

Bears get a proven good young QB and can still draft a WR at 9. Eats up a chunk of cap space.

Chargers get Caleb Williams and a pick at #5 to go along with a new coach while freeing up some of their cap issues.

 

[Sunday Gravy]

Saw an interesting hypothetical trade...

Chargers Trade Justin Herbert for 1.01 this year. Who says no?

Bears get a proven good young QB and can still draft a WR at 9. Eats up a chunk of cap space.

Chargers get Caleb Williams and a pick at #5 to go along with a new coach while freeing up some of their cap issues.

I'd take Herbert in a heartbeat!

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Saw an interesting hypothetical trade...

Chargers Trade Justin Herbert for 1.01 this year. Who says no?

Bears get a proven good young QB and can still draft a WR at 9. Eats up a chunk of cap space.

Chargers get Caleb Williams and a pick at #5 to go along with a new coach while freeing up some of their cap issues.

No. Getting Herbert would take much more than the #1. More than #1 and #9.

 

[Max Power]

Saw an interesting hypothetical trade...

Chargers Trade Justin Herbert for 1.01 this year. Who says no?

Bears get a proven good young QB and can still draft a WR at 9. Eats up a chunk of cap space.

Chargers get Caleb Williams and a pick at #5 to go along with a new coach while freeing up some of their cap issues.

No. Getting Herbert would take much more than the #1. More than #1 and #9.

I thought it was close. The going rate for an upper Tier QB is 3x firsts and the number 1 pick goes for about 3 firsts as well.

Makes more sense from the Chargers side after hearing they are projected to be 40mil over the cap. They will lose Ekler and likely have to cut some combo of K. Allen, M. Williams, Bosa or Mack to just get under the cap.

 

[Gally]

Makes more sense from the Chargers side

It doesn't really make any sense from the Bears side unless they include Fields or already have a deal in place to move Fields. Having both Fields and Herbert is not a good plan.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Makes more sense from the Chargers side

It doesn't really make any sense from the Bears side unless they include Fields or already have a deal in place to move Fields. Having both Fields and Herbert is not a good plan.

Lol wat

 

[FarFromHome]

Makes more sense from the Chargers side

It doesn't really make any sense from the Bears side unless they include Fields or already have a deal in place to move Fields. Having both Fields and Herbert is not a good plan.

Lol wat

If I was Bears GM and I could get Herbert using pick 1 I'd be thrilled. Sure it would lower my leverage moving Fields, but I would be pinning my Herbert poster up in my garage so I wouldn't care.

 

[Max Power]

Makes more sense from the Chargers side

It doesn't really make any sense from the Bears side unless they include Fields or already have a deal in place to move Fields. Having both Fields and Herbert is not a good plan.

Its assumed they would trade JF elsewhere at that point.

After reading more on the Chargers situation, I can see where a tear down and rebuild makes sense. Herbert is a valuable asset, but had a down year, and the Chargers don't seem to have a lot of talent waiting behind their upcoming cap cuts. Its probably another 2-3 years until they are even a contender again while paying Herbert top value. Picks 1 and 5 in the same draft is appealing.

Im not advocating that its the right move, but it's not as crazy as it looked at first glance. Herbert has a no trade clause in his contract, so its not like any of this matters.

 

[jumper]

Wonder if this tweet changes anyone's mind about what to do with the 1.01 pick? Here's the tl;dr:

Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these (success) marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick:
4,000+ yards: 2.7x
30+ TDs: 2x
80+ starts: 2.1x
Playoff win: 2x
Pro Bowl: 1.6x

https://x.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397129138479457?s=20

I pored over the last 30 years of first-round QB data and found out that drafting at No. 1 overall gives teams overwhelmingly better odds at finding success for their franchise.My gut told me all top-10 picks QBs the same. But the data painted a very different picture.

"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."- 4,000+ passing yards in a season- 30+ TDs in a season- 80+ career starts- Winning a playoff game- Making the Pro Bowl. Here's what I found...

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.4,000+ yards: 70%30+ TDs: 45%80+ starts: 81%Playoff win: 70%Pro Bowl: 70%Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards. As you can see in this chart, 8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks.And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years.

Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.4,000+ yards: 25%30+ TDs: 24%80+ starts: 35%Playoff win: 38%Pro Bowl: 33%Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit. You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)4,000+ yards: 29%30+ TDs: 26%80+ starts: 41%Playoff win: 54%Pro Bowl: 63%Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)4,000+ yards: 26%30+ TDs: 22%80+ starts: 39%Playoff win: 35%Pro Bowl: 43%
We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice.In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record. Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick.4,000+ yards: 2.7x30+ TDs: 2x80+ starts: 2.1xPlayoff win: 2xPro Bowl: 1.6x

 

[Biabreakable]

Well of course as if there is a 1st overall pick worthy QB that is the player who should be selected there.

When a QB hasn't been picked 1st overall that usually means that there wasn't a QB worthy of that pick. The few bust QBs you see selected 1st overall the teams reached for those players.

In some draft classes there is more than one QB considered worthy of the 1st overall pick and that's generally where you see a QB who wasn't selected 1st overall end up being the best of that group IF the team picking the 1st QB doesn't take the right guy.

There are some drafts where a QB gets picked high but not 1st overall which shows some doubt about the QBs being worthy of the pick but still worth taking high. The above study omits these instances from its sample but generally the 1st one selected ends up being the best one.

I am not entirely sure about the benchmarks chosen above but here is an article detailing the QB picks since 2000. https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-draft-ranking-every-quarterback-class-since-2000

Now the question to me is if the 2024 draft class have a head and shoulders best QB of the bunch or is that debatable?

This draft looks very deep at the QB position but I am not exactly seeing a Andrew Luck or even Joe Burrow either here but maybe I am wrong about that. It does seem like a lot of the hype about the QB class has lost some of the wind behind its sails since last spring.

As you can see from the linked article the 1st QB picked isn't always the best one and it's not as cut and dry as the percentages presented make it out to be.

Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers for example were both considered in contention for 1st overall but Smith was selected and Rodgers fell to pick 24. Smith was OK but certainly not as good as Rodgers.

Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger all had good careers and I think its debatable which of those 3 were actually the best.

 

[Gally]

Seems like it should have looked at 1st QB taken rather than QB taken at pick #1. That would account for poor draft classes a bit better. Because really it should be about getting the first choice of QB which doesn't necessarily equate to having the first overall pick (in drafts where there isn't a QB worthy of being the first overall pick).

 

[Max Power]

The history of the first pick QB is pretty fascinating to me. I think the success should be measured in SB wins.

Over the last 40 seasons only 10 Super Bowls were won by a QB taken with the first overall pick. Five players... Aikman, Elway, P. Manning, E. Manning and Stafford. Is 25% good?

 

[Gally]

I think the success should be measured in SB wins.

So is that the same for any position taken 1st overall? I know that is the ultimate goal for any TEAM but the success of an individual player shouldn't be solely measured in SB wins because there are too many factors that go into winning a SB that is beyond any one player's purview. I would say wins should be how a coach or front office should be measured as they are building the team but for a player's success rate it should be based on their performance and not solely wins. Wins should be factored but just a piece to the success puzzle.

 

[Max Power]

I think no matter what Caleb Williams goes first overall. He has a very high ceiling and his biggest concerns all seem to be correctable. I like a lot about what I've been hearing from the scouting community.

As of right now I've moved from the keep JF and take the picks to the Draft Williams camp. He has too much potential to pass up.

 

[Max Power]

I think the success should be measured in SB wins.

So is that the same for any position taken 1st overall? I know that is the ultimate goal for any TEAM but the success of an individual player shouldn't be solely measured in SB wins because there are too many factors that go into winning a SB that is beyond any one player's purview. I would say wins should be how a coach or front office should be measured as they are building the team but for a player's success rate it should be based on their performance and not solely wins. Wins should be factored but just a piece to the success puzzle.

It may be unfair to say that, but the QB position impacts the win-loss more than any other position on the field. If Myles Garrett doesn't win a SB, I won't hold it against him as much as I would a QB. A DE can only put a team on their shoulders so much.

As a fan I want a championship. Some years I'm happy just getting to the playoffs or winning a game or two but ultimately the only prize left ends up being a championship.

I think measuring individual stats can also be misleading. The numbers cited above referenced yards, TDs, starts, pro-bowl and a single playoff win as success. In that regard it puts someone like Jameis Winston in the successful category and just ignores that he led the league in INTs and pick 6s and hasn't gone on to find a second starting gig in the League.

 

[massraider]

Chargers Trade Justin Herbert for 1.01 this year. Who says no?

The Chargers.

129 mill in dead cap

 

[Gally]

It may be unfair to say that, but the QB position impacts the win-loss more than any other position on the field. If Myles Garrett doesn't win a SB, I won't hold it against him as much as I would a QB. A DE can only put a team on their shoulders so much.

I agree that QB's should be measured (to some degree) for winning but I think it has swung way too far in most cases. Win's are the point of playing but QB's that get downgraded because their defense sucks and loses games that they should win is a problem. I don't know the solution but I do believe wins for QB's has become to important in evaluating a QB's performance.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

The history of the first pick QB is pretty fascinating to me. I think the success should be measured in SB wins.

Over the last 40 seasons only 10 Super Bowls were won by a QB taken with the first overall pick. Five players... Aikman, Elway, P. Manning, E. Manning and Stafford. Is 25% good?

I think the better measure of success is if the player signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. The obvious exception is a guy like Daniel Jones, but let's face it, the Giants took a huge gamble signing that contract.

 

[Max Power]

It may be unfair to say that, but the QB position impacts the win-loss more than any other position on the field. If Myles Garrett doesn't win a SB, I won't hold it against him as much as I would a QB. A DE can only put a team on their shoulders so much.

I agree that QB's should be measured (to some degree) for winning but I think it has swung way too far in most cases. Win's are the point of playing but QB's that get downgraded because their defense sucks and loses games that they should win is a problem. I don't know the solution but I do believe wins for QB's has become to important in evaluating a QB's performance.

I agree it has gone too far and also agree its hard to measure success at the QB position. Right now in the NFL world it keeps seeming to boil down to "Can they win when it counts?".

Even thinking back to the Eli vs Romo days... Romo was statistically a better QB. One guy is known for post season success and the other for not performing well in crunch time. I think its hard to make the case that Romo is the better QB.

Right now one of the more difficult points to refine is how good is Justin fields really? His record as a starter is bad, but he also had the league's worst D through a 20 game stretch. His turnovers lost several of those games, but his running ability kept them in many as well. Statistically he isn't a great passer, but it's trending up. He's only 24 years old and has had inconsistent and poor OCs his entire pro career. How do you fairly evaluate this?

 

[wdh76]

Wonder if this tweet changes anyone's mind about what to do with the 1.01 pick? Here's the tl;dr:

Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these (success) marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick:
4,000+ yards: 2.7x
30+ TDs: 2x
80+ starts: 2.1x
Playoff win: 2x
Pro Bowl: 1.6x

https://x.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397129138479457?s=20

I pored over the last 30 years of first-round QB data and found out that drafting at No. 1 overall gives teams overwhelmingly better odds at finding success for their franchise.My gut told me all top-10 picks QBs the same. But the data painted a very different picture.

"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."- 4,000+ passing yards in a season- 30+ TDs in a season- 80+ career starts- Winning a playoff game- Making the Pro Bowl. Here's what I found...

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.4,000+ yards: 70%30+ TDs: 45%80+ starts: 81%Playoff win: 70%Pro Bowl: 70%Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards. As you can see in this chart, 8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks.And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years.

Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.4,000+ yards: 25%30+ TDs: 24%80+ starts: 35%Playoff win: 38%Pro Bowl: 33%Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit. You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)4,000+ yards: 29%30+ TDs: 26%80+ starts: 41%Playoff win: 54%Pro Bowl: 63%Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)4,000+ yards: 26%30+ TDs: 22%80+ starts: 39%Playoff win: 35%Pro Bowl: 43%
We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice.In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record. Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick.4,000+ yards: 2.7x30+ TDs: 2x80+ starts: 2.1xPlayoff win: 2xPro Bowl: 1.6x

I think volume also plays a part here. If over the last 30 Years there where 20 total QBs going #1 and 70% of them made a certain benchmark, that would be 14 QBs that reached that benchmark. If there were 63 players drafted in the other First round spots, then for 70% to reach that same benchmark 44 QBs would have to be successful. I think a better way to look at it would be hard values. If over that same timeframe 28 Non First overall QBs hit the same benchmark as the 14 First overall QBs did, then are there not twice as many non first overall QBs hitting these benchmarks?

lets look at the actual Numbers and these Benchmarks - (Per the numbers in quoted post.)

4000+ Yards
FO QB - 14
NON FO QBs - 16

30+ TDs
FO QB - 9
NON FO QBs - 15

80 Plus Starts -
FO QB - 16
NON FO QBs - 19

Playoff Win
FO QB - 14
NON FO QBs - 24

Pro Bowl
FO QB - 14
NON FO QBs - 21


Does this not give a diffent perspective to these benchmarks.....

 

[Brunell4MVP]

I think Fields has shown enough where if they get a monster offer Id trade the #1. If not as much interest in #1 then I may change my mind - but figure if Young landed that type of deal they should be able to get as much again. Build that team out - lots of good players on rookie contracts so they could easily pay Fields and be more than competitive. Very dangerous assuming a rookie will be better than a known quantity who has shown to be a competent starter

If they can get a 1st next year from another shaky team they can keep doing this every year! lol

Carolina moved up from #9 though. Chicago shouldn’t want to move back that far this year. If they’re keeping fields they need to stay in the top 4 and probably top 3 to make sure they get Harrison.

Is it really that difficult to conceive that a rookie QB might be able to easily replicate Fields’ production though with statistical and greater team success upside?

The argument for keeping him is just not making sense to me.

The thinking is that the team's biggest needs right now are WR, DE, and C. Bears still had the second worst pass rush in the NFL last year. They Need someone opposite Sweat if they want to make the next step. They also need someone opposite Moore at WR as well.

If they take Williams at 1, they get either a top tier WR or DE at 9. If they trade 1.01 and get another top 3-6 pick, a second this year and future 1st they can address both needs and grab a center in rd 2.

JF may not be great, but you know what you have in him. Adding elite talent around him is bound to improve the team. Drafting a rookie QB tends to be more of a mixed bag. If the Bears are sold on Williams, then do it. I'm skeptical of him, but I'm also not the one evaluating him.

Draft isn't the only way to add talent. Bears still have a ton of cap space to play with in FA.

It's just bad business to pass on a potential star qb two straight years for mediocrity. Goal is to win a championship, not to just improve a bit.

Its fair to say the Bears will be big players in FA. I hope they can address some major needs through FA.

Would the Bears be better off today with Bryce Young? Which QB this year is the Franchise guy?

The big difference for the Bears is they don’t have to move up. Carolina did. They gutted their team and mortgaged their future. Bryce Young wasn’t capable of carrying them.

The Bears still have ample resources to surround a rookie QB with. You pick your guy. Draft Nabers/Odunze/Bowers at 9. Trade Fields for a 2nd. Now you have two 2’s. Add to your lines.

Throw money at Josh Allen (or other available edge rusher) in free agency to play opposite Sweat.

I dont think Josh Allen or Brian Burns make it to FA. Danielle Hunter is probably the best outcome at Edge.

Or the Bears Trade 1.01 and have even more resources to surround JF with, possibly MHjr who is an elite WR prospect. I'll also go on a sturdy limb and say Nabers wont make it to #9.

I am hoping the Vikings can retain Hunter but he is a free agent and likely goes to the highest bidder.

A very good player.

If Nabers won't make it to pick 9 then I guess that makes it harder.

The Bears could certainly use a top tier WR. It would make Fields or whoever is the QB better and help Moore as well.

Who do you think is the 3rd best WR and is it too much of a drop from Harrison/Nabers to pass on either of them?

WR contracts have gotten out of control recently similar to QBs. The old 3rd year breakout for WRs is long gone. WRs will go early and often and I'd be surprised if MHJ and MN make it out of the top 6-7 picks. Odunze, maybe, makes it to 9. This draft is seriously loaded at WR. Even the 2nd/3rd tier guys Keon Coleman, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas Jr will go high. It's good to be WR needy this year.

It really is an intriguing class. Egbuka went back to school though. I like Brian Thomas as my #4 guy, but think he'll go in the 20-30 range of the draft. So many options right now.

Ideally (realistically?) I'd like the Bears to drop to #6 in a trade with the NYG. Pickup pick 47, 2025 1st, 2026 2nd, and WanDale Robinson or Schmitz Jr. Grab Nabers at 6 and Dallas Turner at 9. 2nd rd can now address RB\OL\DL\S

Woof. Jones' cap hit in 2024 is 47million. IF they cut him, the dead cap hit is closer to 70 million. I'm not sure the Giants can afford to move up.

I don't envy the Giants at all right now. I was reading that they sound like they may be ready to find an alternative to Jones and could draft a rookie QB at 6. NYG are also the type of organization to move up and make a splash like that. That dead money is brutal. I wonder if he has any trade value at all?

The NYG put themselves in this situation. Daniel Jones was not worthy of even half the money they paid him. He's a low tier starter/backup. It's all on them for putting their eggs in that basket.

 

[Biabreakable]

Wonder if this tweet changes anyone's mind about what to do with the 1.01 pick? Here's the tl;dr:

Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these (success) marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick:
4,000+ yards: 2.7x
30+ TDs: 2x
80+ starts: 2.1x
Playoff win: 2x
Pro Bowl: 1.6x

https://x.com/DaveKluge/status/1747397129138479457?s=20

I pored over the last 30 years of first-round QB data and found out that drafting at No. 1 overall gives teams overwhelmingly better odds at finding success for their franchise.My gut told me all top-10 picks QBs the same. But the data painted a very different picture.

"Success" is an arbitrary term and can have a lot of different definitions, so I chose 5 benchmarks that could indicate "success."- 4,000+ passing yards in a season- 30+ TDs in a season- 80+ career starts- Winning a playoff game- Making the Pro Bowl. Here's what I found...

QBs drafted No. 1 overall (20 total) in the last 30 years hit these benchmarks at an astonishing rate.4,000+ yards: 70%30+ TDs: 45%80+ starts: 81%Playoff win: 70%Pro Bowl: 70%Bryce Young, JaMarcus Russell, David Carr, and Tim Couch are the only busts by these standards. As you can see in this chart, 8 of the 16 eligible QBs hit every one of those marks.And while Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, and Kyler Murray are still too early in their careers to have done so, they will likely join the others within the next few years.

Looking at QBs drafted 2-32 (63 total), the hit rates plummet.4,000+ yards: 25%30+ TDs: 24%80+ starts: 35%Playoff win: 38%Pro Bowl: 33%Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Daunte Culpepper hit. You'd think trimming down to top-10 and top-5 picks would help, but it doesn't.Picks 2-10 (34 QBs)4,000+ yards: 29%30+ TDs: 26%80+ starts: 41%Playoff win: 54%Pro Bowl: 63%Picks 2-5 (23 QBs)4,000+ yards: 26%30+ TDs: 22%80+ starts: 39%Playoff win: 35%Pro Bowl: 43%
We remember the busts (Russell, Carr, Couch) and the steals (Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Culpepper), but taking the class's QB1 is usually the best practice.In addition to hitting these arbitrary marks, No. 1 QBs average out better in almost every stat, including W/L record. Trading back and drafting a cheaper QB may sound good in theory, but here's how much you increase your odds of drafting a QB who will hit these marks at No. 1 as opposed to another top-5 pick.4,000+ yards: 2.7x30+ TDs: 2x80+ starts: 2.1xPlayoff win: 2xPro Bowl: 1.6x

I think volume also plays a part here. If over the last 30 Years there where 20 total QBs going #1 and 70% of them made a certain benchmark, that would be 14 QBs that reached that benchmark. If there were 63 players drafted in the other First round spots, then for 70% to reach that same benchmark 44 QBs would have to be successful. I think a better way to look at it would be hard values. If over that same timeframe 28 Non First overall QBs hit the same benchmark as the 14 First overall QBs did, then are there not twice as many non first overall QBs hitting these benchmarks?

lets look at the actual Numbers and these Benchmarks - (Per the numbers in quoted post.)

4000+ Yards
FO QB - 14
NON FO QBs - 16

30+ TDs
FO QB - 9
NON FO QBs - 15

80 Plus Starts -
FO QB - 16
NON FO QBs - 19

Playoff Win
FO QB - 14
NON FO QBs - 24

Pro Bowl
FO QB - 14
NON FO QBs - 21


Does this not give a diffent perspective to these benchmarks.....

It does.

I am not sure what the overall criteria should be here for comparison. Some different things have been thrown out there.

SuperBowl wins. Playoff wins. Overall wins. These do seem like goals that a team is shooting for when making this decision however as pointed out team wins is not only about the QBs play.

By this criteria Eli Manning had more SB wins than Rivers or Big Ben. However I do think Rivers and Ben had similarly good careers as Eli. Some of Elis SB wins seemed a bit lucky although you can't take them away from him.

So what are the criteria we should use here?

The Alex Smith vs Aaron Rodgers comparison clearly shows that being the 1st overall pick does not mean the best QB career here. That was just a strange year where none of the teams were looking for QBs as strange as that sounds. I don't think Rodgers would be passed on as many times as he was otherwise. The Packers actually didn't need him when they took him either, they had Favre who was still playing very well at the time. The 49ers could have picked Rodgers over Smith, they were considered very similarly good prospects worthy of the 1st overall pick. The reason given for picking Smith over Rodgers by the 49ers was they thought Smith was slightly more athletic of the 2 QBs which based on combine metrics I think that was true but I'm not sure if it was in reality. Rodgers was very mobile QB most of his career.

There is no way Rodgers should have fell to pick 24, but that is what happened.

There are more examples than this that seem to get left out of that analysis somehow which doesn't tell the whole story.

 

[Biabreakable]

While it may seem fluky I should also point out that some of the best QBs of all time were not even 1st round picks.

Whatever criteria we might use to compare QB careers by Tom Brady is the GOAT and Drew Brees was very good. Russell Wilson has won a SB and Brock Purdy has a chance to.