He’s in my lineup with Adams and Gallup. Giddy up!
Adam Thielen caught 7-of-9 targets for 129 yards in the Vikings' Wild Card win over the Saints.
It was Thielen's first game all season with more than eight targets. His biggest play of the game was a 43-yard completion courtesy of a b-e-a-utiful deep ball from Kirk Cousins that put the Vikings inside the five-yard line in overtime. It's been tough for Stefon Diggs (2-19-0) and Thielen to consistently produce in this run-first offense, but both WRs remain incredibly talented route-running technicians that also carry big-play upside. Up next is a tough matchup against Richard Sherman and the 49ers' league-best secondary.
Jan 5, 2020, 4:47 PM ET
Adam Thielen caught 5-of-7 targets for 50 yards in the Vikings' Divisional Round loss to the 49ers.
Playing through a painful ankle laceration, Thielen appeared no worse for the wear, but the Vikings' passing attack could not get out of neutral vs. the 49ers' dominant pass rush. Paid last offseason, Thielen suffered through an injury-marred 2019, slumping to four-year lows in every meaningful statistical category except touchdowns as he missed six games with a hamstring issue. With Thielen going on 30, it certainly wasn't the most encouraging time for him to come down with a soft-tissue ailment. There is still ample reason to expect a Thielen bounce back in 2020, though Stefon Diggs' continued progression coupled with the Vikes' run-first philosophy caps his overall upside. Thielen will be best treated as a high-floor WR2 in offseason drafts.
Jan 11, 2020, 7:53 PM ET
Thicken has been undervalued since he broke out and still is. If you have any notion of competing this year, I'd trade somebody else.So how are owners feeling about him for this upcoming season? I have him in a PPR dynasty league where I could use RB help. Curious what RB you think he should net in return?
I think there is reason to worry he wont return to his WR 1 performances of 2017 and 2018.ffmail4me said:So how are owners feeling about him for this upcoming season?
I think you will be fine as long as you get a RB 2 for him. I don't really expect Thielen to improve from here at 30 years old now. So the long term value is a wash.I have him in a PPR dynasty league where I could use RB help. Curious what RB you think he should net in return?
As far as I know he really only had one injury (hamstring). I do not think it was a bunch of different things. For a WR a bad hamstring injury is a year breaker. You never really get back to full speed and are always worried about re-injury.I think there is reason to worry he wont return to his WR 1 performances of 2017 and 2018.
Thielen will be 30 years old this season (in August).
He struggled with minor injuries all year in 2019. He only caught 30 passes. This is far cry from what he had been doing before where he averaged 147 targets per year or 9.2 targets per game.
In 2019 he only averaged 3 receptions per game in the 10 games he played. Of course one of those games he played only 5 snaps before having to shut it down. Still he only averaged 4.8 targets per game in the new offense and Diggs has surpassed him.
While I can see Thielen bouncing back this year, and as a Vikings fan I hope he does, I am not expecting him to have the same amount of opportunity in 2020.
If we just split the difference between where he was at in 2017, 2018 and last season that is 7 targets per game, which would be 112 targets over 16 games. At 69% career catch rate this would be 77 receptions 1041 yards 6 TD which is about 200 points and that would have him finishing as WR 25 last season.
I think you will be fine as long as you get a RB 2 for him. I don't really expect Thielen to improve from here at 30 years old now. So the long term value is a wash.
It was about that time when the offense shifted to be a lot more conservative and run heavy (and it worked). Because of that, I could see Zimmer sticking with that approach which is what will be the limiting factor on Thielen. I agree he is more in the WR2/3 range at this point because of this.He was in the top 10 until the game where he got hurt. So yes, I don't think we should expect any soon to be 30 year old to get better as they get older...but I think he still makes a great #2 or #3 FF WR each week. And in the league I acquired him, he'd be my #4 at the flex behind Nuk, Hill, and Evans
He was reported to have an hamstring last season. then after he was supposedly recovered from that, he had an ankle injury in practice, they say a laceration, he got cleated by a team mate. So there is two.As far as I know he really only had one injury (hamstring). I do not think it was a bunch of different things. For a WR a bad hamstring injury is a year breaker. You never really get back to full speed and are always worried about re-injury.
The Vikings did go deep a lot last season off of play action. While Diggs excelled at that also, I think Diggs can do more than they asked of him.I am more worried about the lack of creativity and deep shots for the offense. That is a bigger factor for me than age or injuries.
ESPN has him at 10, Fantasy Pros at 13. I think that valuation reflects the thinking you're getting the volume he got 2 and 3 seasons ago. If I'm getting you as a mid to low end WR2--sure, I like 85 and 1100. If I'm taking you as a low end WR1, high end WR2, it doesn't represent a lot of upside in my eyes.For where he's valued, 85/1100/6 or so isn't bad at all. Especially considering there's upside for a lot more targets if things don't go as planned relying on the running game and defense, week to week.
ESPN has him at 10, Fantasy Pros at 13. I think that valuation reflects the thinking you're getting the volume he got 2 and 3 seasons ago. If I'm getting you as a mid to low end WR2--sure, I like 85 and 1100. If I'm taking you as a low end WR1, high end WR2, it doesn't represent a lot of upside in my eyes.
Yeah. I need to do a better job of clarifying. This time of year, I force myself through redraft, and then bleed it over into dynasty thinking.Are these redraft rankings? That makes sense then, yeah he's not quite as safe at those rankings. I only play dynasty and was referring to his value there, as a win now asset he's not super pricey at all.
Mike Clay has the Vikings projected for 495 pass attempts, he has Thielen getting 120 targets so 24% target share, 78 receptions 1096 yards 6 TD and this is WR 9 from his projections.ESPN has him at 10, Fantasy Pros at 13. I think that valuation reflects the thinking you're getting the volume he got 2 and 3 seasons ago. If I'm getting you as a mid to low end WR2--sure, I like 85 and 1100. If I'm taking you as a low end WR1, high end WR2, it doesn't represent a lot of upside in my eyes.
I am in the same boat. Bought him for 1.12 in a PPR dynasty league months ago, and sold him last week for what should be a top 6 pick in 2021, and Irv Smith Jr. I also worry how quickly he can bounce back from strains/pulls at his age.I've completely turned face on him in 3 weeks.
Thielen was a target monster in 2017/2018. Last year, he was down across the board due to injuries. Diggs is gone. Even with Jefferson, Thielen is obviously in line for 180 targets this season.
But on the flip side, the Vikings have completely changed the offense. They brought in Kubiak, and Cousins only threw it 444 times last year (in 15 games, so ~474 in 16 games). With Cook and Mattison in the fold, I think they'll still look to run it a ton. And all of a sudden, his targets aren't there. Assuming Cousins throws it 500 times (not a lock) and Thielen gets a 25% target share--he's looking at 125 targets. The 2 full seasons prior, he was catching ~68% of his targets. Now you're looking at 85 receptions. At a similar average to his 12.9 over the last 2 full seasons--now you're looking at 1104 yards. And a guy that probably doesn't give you a ton of TD's.
Does Adam Thielen return to fantasy WR1 status coming off an injury-plagued season, but without Stefon Diggs attracting defensive attention?
Matt: Adam Thielen is a clear “buy” in fantasy this year. Even if the team wants to continue establishing the run, Thielen should absolutely dominate the target share here. It’s within his range of outcomes to get back to his previous level of 150 to 140 targets in a season. Thielen can offset some of the “extra defensive attention” issue because he lines up inside in favorable situations and at flanker outside. That makes him difficult to press at the line or roll too much coverage toward. Go with the volume here.
Dalton: Yes, he’s going to be 30 and coming off an injury-plagued season, but with Diggs gone, Thielen is one of a handful of favorites to lead the NFL in targets this season. It remains unclear how much of the slot he’ll see with rookie Justin Jefferson used almost exclusively in that role in college, but Thielen is going to be a top-10 fantasy WR in 2020 either way.
Scott: Easily. Such a clear path to targets. And while Kirk Cousins has a moderate upside, he’s good enough. Opportunity is still gigantically important in our game. Thielen makes sense in the third round, and is a screaming value if you can land him after that.
Why?I thought he would be a good value this year, but the little I've heard is that Jefferson is lining up mostly in the slot. If that's the case I will probably be passing on Thielen.
What ADP are you using?I think Thielen is being pretty overvalued right now. His current ADP is WR9, and that is just way too high for me on a run heavy team, for a non-elite talent. I'll make the exception for Davante Adams, not for Adam Thielen.
The idea that Thielen might lead the league in targets is absurd to me.
he is 15/43 here https://api.myfantasyleague.com/2020/reports?R=ADP
Jefferson is going in the same round.he is 15/43 here https://api.myfantasyleague.com/2020/reports?R=ADP
Mizelle has hm even lower at 25/51 http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/
I use Yahoo, so I was taking their ADP's. MFL has him WR15 and 42 overall, so perhaps Yahoo is the outlier. I've got Thielen as a 4/5 turn type, in the WR15-20 range.
I think the Vikings are going to do what they can to get their best playmakerson the field. IMO that means getting Thielen and Jefferson out there, but I think both of them thrive from the slot.Why?
Do you think that Jefferson playing mostly slot in 2019 for LSU means Adam Thielen wont be on the field?
Do you think that Adam Thielen needs to be in the slot to get targets?
As of right now Olabisi Johnson is ahead of Jefferson on the Vikings depth chart. Jefferson is not a threat to Thielens opportunity at all for the 2020 season.
They will and I don't think Olabisi Johnson will hold Jefferson back from starting, but he has to earn it and he was in Covid safety protocol as part of the reason he has missed time and is behind right now.Jail said:I think the Vikings are going to do what they can to get their best playmakerson the field. IMO that means getting Thielen and Jefferson out there, but I think both of them thrive from the slot.
They will likely do that at times and vice versa. The Vikings have their starting WR play from all different spots in the alignment according to the play. I think too much is being made of how LSU used Jefferson in 2019.In a normal off season Jefferson would have more time to learn and work outside, but I don't know if he can do that this year. So, I just think the easiest thing would be to have him work more from the slot and put Thielen outside.
That is true Theielen has produced more yards and so on from the slot position than he has lining up outside. I think you would find that to be the case with most WR. But only the Vikings receivers are getting this scrutiny.I don't think Thielen sucks outside, but lots of stuff I have read is that he really thrives from the slot. So I think he'll be a good WR2, but I just don't see the huge upside we'd see if he got to play from the slot. From there I think he would have top 10 upside. If he falls a little I'd still take him, but if I knew he was going to play from the slot I wouldn't hesitate to even reach a little for him.
I don't see any draft where CEH is going outside the first round.I use Yahoo, so I was taking their ADP's. MFL has him WR15 and 42 overall, so perhaps Yahoo is the outlier. I've got Thielen as a 4/5 turn type, in the WR15-20 range.
Side note: Looking at the differences in ADP between sites, its clear there are a very wide range of outcomes depending on where you get your info. For example, CEH is #7 overall on Yahoo, and #16 at fantasy pros, almost an entire round later.
Adam Thielen caught 6-of-8 targets for 110 yards and two touchdowns in the Vikings' Week 1 loss to the Packers.
Kirk Cousins attempted just five first-half passes, so things were not looking good for this offense after 30 minutes. But getting smashed in the second half, the Vikings got to face a softened defense, and Thielen was able to get to work and find the end zone a couple times. They were mostly meaningless touchdowns, but they all look the same in the box score. Thielen should gobble up targets in this offense all year and will again be a WR1 play next week against the Colts.
Adam Thielen caught 3-of-5 targets for 29 yards and one touchdown in the Vikings' Week 3 loss to the Titans.
Kirk Cousins delivered a perfect strike to Thielen in the back of the end zone for a 16-yard touchdown, the first of Cousins' day. But it was Justin Jefferson who did most of the damage for the Vikings, posting a ludicrous 7-175-1 line on a team-high nine targets. Thielen has yardage totals of 31 and 29 the last two weeks, but the touchdown was huge. Thielen will be a borderline WR1 next week against Houston. Jefferson's emergence is bad news for Thielen in a low-volume pass offense.
Sep 27, 2020, 5:28 PM ET
Adam Thielen caught 8-of-10 targets for 114 yards and a touchdown in the Vikings' Week 4 win over the Texans.
The 100-yard day was Thielen's first since Week 1, and came even as rookie Justin Jefferson again reached the century mark. The highlight was a 39-yard grab off play action where Thielen cut across the field to tack on yardage. His score was a nine-yarder where he was blatantly interfered with but caught the pass in the end zone, anyways. With the Vikings finally producing some explosive plays on offense, there is some ceiling to go along with Thielen's WR1 floor. The Seahawks' nonexistent defense is a stratospheric spot for Week 5.
Adam Thielen caught 9-of-13 targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns in Week 5 against Seattle.
Thielen scored both his touchdowns on red-zone throws from Kirk Cousins. His 13 targets easily paced the Vikings, with no other receiver getting more than five. It's another strong game for Thielen after going off for an 8/114/1 line last week. Thielen has another favorable matchup against the Falcons' secondary in Week 6.
Oct 11, 2020, 11:59 PM ET