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WR Adam Thielen - CAR (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter grateful zed
- Start date
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Thicken has been undervalued since he broke out and still is. If you have any notion of competing this year, I'd trade somebody else.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I bought for the 1.12. I felt it was a good deal for being a contender, thanks for confirming.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think there is reason to worry he wont return to his WR 1 performances of 2017 and 2018.ffmail4me said:
Thielen will be 30 years old this season (in August).
He struggled with minor injuries all year in 2019. He only caught 30 passes. This is far cry from what he had been doing before where he averaged 147 targets per year or 9.2 targets per game.
In 2019 he only averaged 3 receptions per game in the 10 games he played. Of course one of those games he played only 5 snaps before having to shut it down. Still he only averaged 4.8 targets per game in the new offense and Diggs has surpassed him.
While I can see Thielen bouncing back this year, and as a Vikings fan I hope he does, I am not expecting him to have the same amount of opportunity in 2020.
If we just split the difference between where he was at in 2017, 2018 and last season that is 7 targets per game, which would be 112 targets over 16 games. At 69% career catch rate this would be 77 receptions 1041 yards 6 TD which is about 200 points and that would have him finishing as WR 25 last season.
I think you will be fine as long as you get a RB 2 for him. I don't really expect Thielen to improve from here at 30 years old now. So the long term value is a wash.
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As far as I know he really only had one injury (hamstring). I do not think it was a bunch of different things. For a WR a bad hamstring injury is a year breaker. You never really get back to full speed and are always worried about re-injury.
I am more worried about the lack of creativity and deep shots for the offense. That is a bigger factor for me than age or injuries.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
He was in the top 10 until the game where he got hurt. So yes, I don't think we should expect any soon to be 30 year old to get better as they get older...but I think he still makes a great #2 or #3 FF WR each week. And in the league I acquired him, he'd be my #4 at the flex behind Nuk, Hill, and Evans 
It was about that time when the offense shifted to be a lot more conservative and run heavy (and it worked). Because of that, I could see Zimmer sticking with that approach which is what will be the limiting factor on Thielen. I agree he is more in the WR2/3 range at this point because of this.He was in the top 10 until the game where he got hurt. So yes, I don't think we should expect any soon to be 30 year old to get better as they get older...but I think he still makes a great #2 or #3 FF WR each week. And in the league I acquired him, he'd be my #4 at the flex behind Nuk, Hill, and Evans
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He was reported to have an hamstring last season. then after he was supposedly recovered from that, he had an ankle injury in practice, they say a laceration, he got cleated by a team mate. So there is two.
He supposedly had back issues in 2017. This was a reason given for him not doing much in the playoff game vs the Eagles.
The Vikings did go deep a lot last season off of play action. While Diggs excelled at that also, I think Diggs can do more than they asked of him.
Cousins does seem to prefer Thielen though. Perhaps because he is a larger target?
There was talk early on in the season that the Vikings would scheme for Thielen more than Diggs, having Diggs run clear out routes and so on for Thielen. That talk died down once Thielen was injured.
The Vikings only threw the ball about 450 times in 2019 compared to 606 times in 2018 and 527 times in 2018 so fewer opportunities for the receivers than before.
jm192
Footballguy
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Lol, I had the same thought -- "this reads like a mediocre forum post" and didn't finish it.
grateful zed
Footballguy
fftoday ranks him wr9
Deamon
Footballguy
Agree. I have no real reason for it either but something just feels off about this season for him.
Penguin
Footballguy
I think Theilen can have a 240 PPR year in 2020 if he stays healthy, but that's my ceiling for him, I can envision a much lower floor as well. I can then see a 10-to15% PPR decrease year after year beginning in 2021
If healthy #'s
2020 240 PPR @ 30 years old
2021 200 PPR @ 31 years old
2022 170 PPR @ 32 years old
If healthy #'s
2020 240 PPR @ 30 years old
2021 200 PPR @ 31 years old
2022 170 PPR @ 32 years old
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jm192
Footballguy
I've completely turned face on him in 3 weeks.
Thielen was a target monster in 2017/2018. Last year, he was down across the board due to injuries. Diggs is gone. Even with Jefferson, Thielen is obviously in line for 180 targets this season.
But on the flip side, the Vikings have completely changed the offense. They brought in Kubiak, and Cousins only threw it 444 times last year (in 15 games, so ~474 in 16 games). With Cook and Mattison in the fold, I think they'll still look to run it a ton. And all of a sudden, his targets aren't there. Assuming Cousins throws it 500 times (not a lock) and Thielen gets a 25% target share--he's looking at 125 targets. The 2 full seasons prior, he was catching ~68% of his targets. Now you're looking at 85 receptions. At a similar average to his 12.9 over the last 2 full seasons--now you're looking at 1104 yards. And a guy that probably doesn't give you a ton of TD's.
Thielen was a target monster in 2017/2018. Last year, he was down across the board due to injuries. Diggs is gone. Even with Jefferson, Thielen is obviously in line for 180 targets this season.
But on the flip side, the Vikings have completely changed the offense. They brought in Kubiak, and Cousins only threw it 444 times last year (in 15 games, so ~474 in 16 games). With Cook and Mattison in the fold, I think they'll still look to run it a ton. And all of a sudden, his targets aren't there. Assuming Cousins throws it 500 times (not a lock) and Thielen gets a 25% target share--he's looking at 125 targets. The 2 full seasons prior, he was catching ~68% of his targets. Now you're looking at 85 receptions. At a similar average to his 12.9 over the last 2 full seasons--now you're looking at 1104 yards. And a guy that probably doesn't give you a ton of TD's.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
For where he's valued, 85/1100/6 or so isn't bad at all. Especially considering there's upside for a lot more targets if things don't go as planned relying on the running game and defense, week to week.
jm192
Footballguy
ESPN has him at 10, Fantasy Pros at 13. I think that valuation reflects the thinking you're getting the volume he got 2 and 3 seasons ago. If I'm getting you as a mid to low end WR2--sure, I like 85 and 1100. If I'm taking you as a low end WR1, high end WR2, it doesn't represent a lot of upside in my eyes.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Are these redraft rankings? That makes sense then, yeah he's not quite as safe at those rankings. I only play dynasty and was referring to his value there, as a win now asset he's not super pricey at all.
jm192
Footballguy
Yeah. I need to do a better job of clarifying. This time of year, I force myself through redraft, and then bleed it over into dynasty thinking.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Mike Clay has the Vikings projected for 495 pass attempts, he has Thielen getting 120 targets so 24% target share, 78 receptions 1096 yards 6 TD and this is WR 9 from his projections.
So his projection is not based on what the Vikings did 2-3 years ago. It is pretty close to your projection above.Which I thought was a pretty good projection btw.
David Dodds has Kirk Cousins with 520 passing attempts, so more than Clay and Thielen getting 82 receptions 1099 yards 6.7 TD I am not sure about the targets, that isn't listed. He has Thielen as the 12th WR with these numbers. DD appears to have more passing overall in the league than Clay, by a slight margin. The end result is close to the same.
I dont think we have good data for ADP in redraft leagues right now. This ADP clearly has a strong dynasty slant to it. Jefferson is being selected higher than Thielen there.
If you are drafting Thielen as a low WR 1 or good WR 2 for fantasy I don't think you need upside, he is already near the top of the list and you likely are not selecting him until the 3rd or 4th round where this value is fairly priced.
If your league is dynasty and this ADP is actually accurate he offers tremendous value to a team ready to win now. A top 12ish WR for the price of WR 33??
Sign me up.
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
I am in the same boat. Bought him for 1.12 in a PPR dynasty league months ago, and sold him last week for what should be a top 6 pick in 2021, and Irv Smith Jr. I also worry how quickly he can bounce back from strains/pulls at his age.
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I think Thielen is being pretty overvalued right now. His current ADP is WR9, and that is just way too high for me on a run heavy team, for a non-elite talent. I'll make the exception for Davante Adams, not for Adam Thielen.
The idea that Thielen might lead the league in targets is absurd to me.
The idea that Thielen might lead the league in targets is absurd to me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Why?
Do you think that Jefferson playing mostly slot in 2019 for LSU means Adam Thielen wont be on the field?
Do you think that Adam Thielen needs to be in the slot to get targets?
As of right now Olabisi Johnson is ahead of Jefferson on the Vikings depth chart. Jefferson is not a threat to Thielens opportunity at all for the 2020 season.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
What ADP are you using?
According to this he is WR 14 and the 40th overall player. That is top of the 4th round in 12 teams leagues and pretty reasonable.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
he is 15/43 here https://api.myfantasyleague.com/2020/reports?R=ADP
Mizelle has hm even lower at 25/51 http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jefferson is going in the same round.
I want to say dynasty slant there but Aug only drafts. So hmm.
I use Yahoo, so I was taking their ADP's. MFL has him WR15 and 42 overall, so perhaps Yahoo is the outlier. I've got Thielen as a 4/5 turn type, in the WR15-20 range.
Side note: Looking at the differences in ADP between sites, its clear there are a very wide range of outcomes depending on where you get your info. For example, CEH is #7 overall on Yahoo, and #16 at fantasy pros, almost an entire round later.
I think the Vikings are going to do what they can to get their best playmakerson the field. IMO that means getting Thielen and Jefferson out there, but I think both of them thrive from the slot.
In a normal off season Jefferson would have more time to learn and work outside, but I don't know if he can do that this year. So, I just think the easiest thing would be to have him work more from the slot and put Thielen outside.
I don't think Thielen sucks outside, but lots of stuff I have read is that he really thrives from the slot. So I think he'll be a good WR2, but I just don't see the huge upside we'd see if he got to play from the slot. From there I think he would have top 10 upside. If he falls a little I'd still take him, but if I knew he was going to play from the slot I wouldn't hesitate to even reach a little for him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
They will and I don't think Olabisi Johnson will hold Jefferson back from starting, but he has to earn it and he was in Covid safety protocol as part of the reason he has missed time and is behind right now.Jail said:
As far as this perspective about Jefferson and Thielen being more productive from the slot that is true. I also think that is likely true for a lot of WR. You just only hear this talk about Jefferson in almost every mention of him. I am getting tired of it by now. Both of them are effective outside WR as well.
They will likely do that at times and vice versa. The Vikings have their starting WR play from all different spots in the alignment according to the play. I think too much is being made of how LSU used Jefferson in 2019.
That is true Theielen has produced more yards and so on from the slot position than he has lining up outside. I think you would find that to be the case with most WR. But only the Vikings receivers are getting this scrutiny.
Here is an article talking about production from the slot position for WR across the league. When you go through this list you see Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas and a ton of other top WR doing most of their damage from the slot position also.
This last statement contradicts the first point that you made, that teams will use their best players and use them in ways that are the most productive for them. They are not going to compromise and not use Thielen in the slot just so they can use Jefferson there. Only way they would do that is if Jefferson was better than Thielen.
Irv Smith plays in the slot a lot too.
I get what you are saying. I went through the same thought process after the Vikings selected Jefferson. I have had months to think about this and the mantra has gotten old to me by now.
Kubiak is aware of these things but he doesn't see Jefferson as only a slot WR. He thinks he can play all of the WR positions and they are cross training him on all of them right now.
Truebluey
Footballguy
I don't see any draft where CEH is going outside the first round.
I've said it a thousand times, but where the drafting site ranks a player on their list is the biggest influence on most casual players.
For example, Thielen is player 27 and WR 11 on the ESPN list. You should expect going in that you would not be able to draft him more than a spot or two after 27. The players immediately after him are Amari Cooper, Ju Ju, Courtland Sutton, and AJ Brown.
The Frankman
Footballguy
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The Frankman
Footballguy
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