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2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Also, same thing here…no Skins, Giants, Vikes, or packers on my roster either. hmmm…no Falcoms or Bucs either. That's three straight weeks for me. No Colts or Texans either…will be four straight weeks. Would be five except I have Gronk in two weeks if he's not hurt. I have a 28 man roster.
CalBear
Footballguy
Three weeks in a row makes the probabilities quite small; about .2% given equal distribution assumptions. Of course you're right that certain teams don't have a lot of players worth buying so the distribution isn't equal, but getting into that level of analysis is more than I'm prepared to do while killing time in a meaningless second half of a stupid game.
Kill TNF.
dagman
Footballguy
I have AP, Lacey and Jarius Wright on my roster. Wright saved my bacon last week. Lacey may have to carry me through this week, with Ingram, Peterson, D. Williams, and J. Stewart on my roster. I purposely went with more WRs and TEs this year than I have in the past. I thought those 5 RBs would serve me well throughout the year, even though I knew there was a high probability I would lose either Williams or Stewart or both at various times throughout the year, just not both at the same time. Of course, I couldn't count on Peterson's suspension and Ingram going down early was a blow as well. Couple those with Eifert and V. Davis injuries and it's been a challenge already to survive.
I also noticed there were quite a few Rudolph owners (2,412) and R. Rodgers owners (939) as well. There were also more than 3000 Patterson owners
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
You're correct. Looks like something happened and the teams that were eliminated last week were still being included in the leaderboard/cutoff calculations. I just fixed it. Thanks for the heads up!
Cowboys#1
Footballguy
Thanks!
The cutline was quite high, I thought. Went down a ton after that change was made!
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Feel like I'm going to be sweating it. I'm at 149 with the ability to move if LaFell tops 9.7 or Nugent tops 11. Neither seems likely.
Maelstrom
Footballguy
I'm sweating it, at 137 with whatever DJAckson does in his game (only needs 2 pts to start gaining)
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Current cutoff: 126.60
Projected Final Cutoff (based on Dodds's projections for SNF and MNF): 134.75
Projected Final Cutoff (based on Dodds's projections for SNF and MNF): 134.75
RenegadeGM
Footballguy
Not looking good. 134.1 with only Jermaine Kearse (-6.8) left.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Sanu, Green, and Hill all came through in the garbage-time portion of this game to get me up to a more healthy looking 149.80.
I have Morris and Turbin to go (minus 7.80 and 9.90)
But given the high unofficial cutline of 136.25 I don't feel like I'm out of the woods yet
Good luck everyone!
-QG
I have Morris and Turbin to go (minus 7.80 and 9.90)
But given the high unofficial cutline of 136.25 I don't feel like I'm out of the woods yet
Good luck everyone!
-QG
Rick James
Footballguy
hope y'all make it through. I'm sitting pretty at 188. highest score all season. VJAX and Demaryius finally showed up, and my TE backup (Wright-NE) outscored Jimmy Graham for me.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Changed things up this year and went with a small 19 man roster seemed to be working until yesterday.Sitting at 138.25 with Lynch (-3.2)and Morris (-7.6).Should be ok I'm thinking but a little close for comfort.
I don't Dodds projections are the way to go. Historically the line moves around 8-10 points on Monday night alone. Sunday night generally features bigger name teams that would have higher ownership. Last night the Sunday game moved the line more than Dodds projected it to move over two games. I thinning the Dodds fractional TD numbers becoming real 6 pointers is the weak spot.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
That's possible, but that would be accounted for in my calculation since I'm running it on the actual rosters. I could just add 8-10 points and call it a day but I'm trying to account for the actual ownership distribution, etc. If SNF features a bunch of heavily-owned players, that will be captured in the projection.
Sure, Dodds wasn't predicting a 43-17 game. Vegas had it at like 23-22. Any time a lot of points are scored, it's going to move the cutline more than was predicted.
Well some of those fractional TD numbers become zeroes, too. If Dodds gets the overall team output close to the actual thing, then the fractional stuff should mostly average out. The problem with last night is that the Patriots outproduced what Dodds had them projected for. I don't think that's a failing of the method.
Vegas set the O/U in the game last night at 46. The fact that 60 points were scored only indicates that Dodd's projections were in line but the scoring barrage skewed everything. I don't think there is anything wrong with using Dodd's projections as a predictor of the cut line move. They projections get decayed by real numbers as they come to reality.
I think if you broke down CIN projections vs. CIN reality you'd see that the projections were not too far off. I would assume that NE's contribution to inflating the cut line move was greater than CIN's contribution since they far surpassed anyone's prediction for how many points they would score.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I think I may have used the wrong projections for tonight's game. 
The ones I plugged in were too low, so the projected cutline for tonight will probably be a few points higher. I don't have time to fix and re-run it right now but I'll try to do it tonight before the game starts.
The ones I plugged in were too low, so the projected cutline for tonight will probably be a few points higher. I don't have time to fix and re-run it right now but I'll try to do it tonight before the game starts.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Over 200 this week, but I am scared for next week. No Ball. Saints are on a bye, Stewart is still hurt and Demarco is playing the Seahawks.
Beefeaters
Footballguy
Need a big game from Lynch or I'm cut... sitting about 5 points below the previous cut line (before MNF projections). :(
snogger
Footballguy
you are better off then me.. Need a Career day from Roy Helu, like 20 points, to get above the current cut line.. :(
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Someone broke Iggy :(I think I may have used the wrong projections for tonight's game.
-QG
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
MCguidance
Footballguy
Might just make it thanks to Dawson and Pats DST.
I like what you did here.
Same for me on this contest with RB's. So far I believe I'd have survived every week with zero RB points but so it's only a matter of time until it catches up to me. Benny Cunningham and Denard Robinson were my only two RB's to produce a point this week and it does not look any better next week.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Papa Schnay
Footballguy
OK. How many guys are left that have put up 5 surviving weeks in a row that have AP and Rice? This is ridiculous. I thought I'd be WAAY out by now.
http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php?teamid=113666
I thought I'd be done by week 4, turns out not so much. Now I'm following but simply for comedic value!
http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/index.php?teamid=113666
I thought I'd be done by week 4, turns out not so much. Now I'm following but simply for comedic value!
There were 329 entries with these players.
123 of them are still alive, for a survival rate of 37.4%.
