Obviously I am overreacting. My point is more that the Eagles and Rams gave up so much to get these guys. If they turn into the next Mannings then it will be worth it. If they turn into Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan, will it be worth it then? I am not sure. Obviously anything less and it's the type of failure that can set an already bad team back half a decade. The success rate of QBs dratfed in the first round is <50% at best. Even when looking at QBs taken in the first few picks, the chances are still only about 50% that the player ever wins a playoff game or posts a winning record as a starter. I have no issue investing high draft capital on a QB because the 50% success rate isn't much different from other positions and the impact of hitting on a QB is massive. I do have an issue trading away a bunch of other picks to get into position to tae QB at 1 or 2. Especially Wentz who has to have one of the weakest college resumes of any QB drafted inside the first 2 or 3 rounds in recent history. Dak might be good or might be trash, but is he really such a worse prospect than Goff or Wentz? Sure the DUI was bad, but other than that are his physical, mental, social/emotional abilities and college resume so different from Wentz and Goff that we see this insane price difference between them?
Here the 2015 leaders in passer rating and what their team paid to get them: 75th pick, 35th pick, traded 6th rd pick, 199th pick, 102nd pick, FA , 180th pick, 1st pick, 1st pick, traded 2nd rd and 4th rd pick.
Obviously that is just 1 year and a small sample size. There is no doubt when you look at long term success, the guys we mostly think of were drafted in the first 2 rounds (Mannings, Rivers, Ben, Rodgers, Brees, Cam). At the same time, the guys we really think of as busts who robbed their franchise of years of success were also being drafted really high (Couch, Russell, Carr, Harrington, Leaf).
If I was guaranteed Goff or Wentz would be as good as a young Stafford or Ryan in their prime (obviously not possible), I would make the trade. I'm not sure about the half decade setback part. It's not like Goff would go 0-16 five seasons in a row and at the end of the time they will pull the plug. It will be evident far sooner than that. If you mean in terms of draft capital cost, they didn't have a second and third this draft (LA), but if Higbee plays like a second rounder and Cooper like a third rounder (despite both being drafted in the fourth), than hard to see the trade being a death blow to their 2016 draft class. As to 2017 (again, LA), they give up a first and third, but with expected compensatory picks for Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod, they could have a second, third and two fourths next year. Again, imo, far from a death blow to their draft prospects next year.
If they had been sitting at #1 or #2, they wouldn't have needed to trade up. That is what they needed to get the draft capital assured of drafting one of the top two QBs (clearly LA had a preference for Goff). Are you questioning Wentz's resume because of FCS level of competition? Was the same true of Roethlisberger? Flacco? I know they went a bit later, but you cited first 2 or 3 rounds. Who scouts NDSU? Do you? I don't. So of course he was going to suffer in the comparison as far as level of competition. Nonetheless, many scouts (such as Mayock and Jeremiah) were very high on him throughout the process of the Senior Bowl, Combine, Pro Day and interviews. Much like when a 6'0" WR is graded top 10 overall, he should be expected to do as well as a 6'4" WR that is graded top 10, because the scouts are aware of the height discrepancy, IT IS BAKED IN TO THE GRADE, these same scouts were aware Wentz went to NDSU, IT WAS BAKED IN TO THE GRADE. Scouts did think Dak was not in the same ball park as Goff and Wentz, it really wasn't close. Maybe they will fail and he will be a star, anything could happen, we are just discussing how scouts saw things BEFORE the draft, and it wasn't close. Near universally, scouts were raving about Wentz's football smarts, there was a consensus that he separated himself from every other prospect. Goff and Wentz by all accounts also separated themselves at the combine, they just looked markedly and pronouncedly better than the competition. I thought at the time, Wentz reminded me of Carson Palmer in terms of his passing mechanics, and Roethlisberger and Flacco in terms of level of competition (look at who Miami, OH and Delaware play, not exactly Alabama, Ohio State and Oregon).
One difference between us, I wouldn't be framing Dak in terms of, sure the DUI was bad, but... There is no but. It was very, very, very bad to do that right before the draft. The Cowboys have Romo, don't have to count on him, so good move for them on day three. But hard to see LA or PHI counting on that. And as noted earlier, DAL has had multiple picks/players recently that have been problematic due to off the field red flags.
Any time we want to look at QBs outside the top few rounds that succeeded at a high level, it is important to view it in terms of a PERCENTAGE basis. Warner and Romo were UFAs, but how many UFAs didn't succeed? Brady was a sixth rounder, how many sixth rounders didn't succeed? And so on. Your last point seems to be maybe they will be worth it, maybe not. I can't get from there, to LA and PHI are inherently, intrinsically idiots for trying to manufacture a QB from the 1.15 and 1.13 positions, respectively.
Looping back for a moment, when you talked about being "set back" for a few years, compared to what?
If Goff doesn't pan out, are the Rams looking at not making the playoffs? Not having a QB? They already have been not making the playoffs for nearly a decade and a half. They already didn't have a QB, and would not be in a different place than they ALREADY WERE AT. The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again and expect a different result. They needed a QB, I applaud them taking a calculated risk. One last point, it is one thing to just cite odds and percentages in a vacuum. It may be worth noting that the Rams front office, coaching staff and scouting department has been on a roll lately. They picked Aaron Donald 1.13 in 2014, one of the best defensive players in the league, and Todd Gurley 1.10 in 2015, one of the best offensive players in the league. Based on that, I'm more inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
He may never be a starting tailback in this league but if he can catch the ball, PPR dynasty leaguers should keep him on the back, back, back burner. I think it also bumps up Detroit DST as a streamer.
