Bill Dauterive
Footballguy
On to week 9. I think I may have peaked in week 8 (212.55). Relatively light byes, but Gibbs on bye and various injuries, looks like Rachaad White might be my only RB. Yikes.
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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter apalmer
- Start date
You're toast, might have a 33% chance of breaking 100.
:reverse jinx activated:
This is wild!
In a contest with so much randomness (injuries, weekly performance fluctuation), what are the odds that any subset of players could outperform to this degree? It has to be almost zilch.
As a comparison, take Jdkapow's survivor category: the subset of teams with the best performing player (McCaffrey), only have a 39% survival rate.
If before the season started, you had to choose between the getting the best performing player in the contest, or reading this board, you would be better served reading this board....absolutely wild.
joey
Footballguy
If nothing else, I imagine the vast majority of folks who read this thread likely spend LESS on K and D, therefore giving them more darts to throw on the skill position players. That might make a big enough difference between surviving longer or not. Oh, and losing your stud RB 1 week in might have something to do with NOT surviving as well. #grumpyChubbOwner
joey
Footballguy
Great call out. Those with Ultimate Super Platinum Subscriptions have the opportunity to change their contest rosters after the trade deadline.
(Why do I keep posting stupid stuff in this thread after I’ve been eliminated?! Oy)
Bill Dauterive
Footballguy
I knew I shouldn't have cut corners, going with the Penultimate Super Platinum Subscription. Penny wise and pound foolish, just dumb!
Puppies
Footballguy
Who else wishes they had a "mulligan" to spend on their roster right now??
If you could drop one dead money player on your roster and spend those cap dollars on other players, what would be your move?
Here's my "mulligan":
Drop: Nick Chubb ($30)
Pick up: RB Z. Moss (16.46ppg) $4, WR Nacua (19.11ppg) $3, TE LaPorta (16.49ppg) $9, QB Sam Howell (24.54ppg) $8, and the Steelers Defense (8 ppg) $6 (= $30 total)
I'd be crusing....
If you could drop one dead money player on your roster and spend those cap dollars on other players, what would be your move?
Here's my "mulligan":
Drop: Nick Chubb ($30)
Pick up: RB Z. Moss (16.46ppg) $4, WR Nacua (19.11ppg) $3, TE LaPorta (16.49ppg) $9, QB Sam Howell (24.54ppg) $8, and the Steelers Defense (8 ppg) $6 (= $30 total)
I'd be crusing....
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Missed the cut by .15 points. Ouch. Can't believe it jumped that high Monday night.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I couldn’t believe it either, especially when it wasn’t a high-scoring game.
brewer
Footballguy
When I watched Nick Chubb's leg explode live, I didn't expect to still be alive in this contest at this point, but, well, here I am. Good luck to all of those still alive. Sorry I haven't participated in the banter more this season but I honestly just didn't think I would keep making the cut.
| Tua Tagovailoa |
| Kenny Pickett |
| Christian McCaffrey |
| Nick Chubb |
| Alvin Kamara |
| Raheem Mostert |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
| Ezekiel Elliott |
| Eric Gray |
| Calvin Ridley |
| Tyler Lockett |
| Brandon Aiyuk |
| Jahan Dotson |
| Allen Robinson |
| Michael Wilson |
| Dalton Kincaid |
| Zach Ertz |
| Foster Moreau |
| Chris Boswell |
| Dustin Hopkins |
| Baltimore Ravens |
| Seattle Seahawks |
| Tennessee Titans |
stubby
Footballguy
same
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I love this guy.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Dez
Footballguy
2087 teams left
I was closer to the cut then expected 163 vs 155 I thought I had it easy going into Monday night but barely survived.
I only went 18 players so these late byes are going to kill
Already down Jefferson when I lose Mahomes, Kelce and Tyreek week 10 I think that I will be gone.
I was closer to the cut then expected 163 vs 155 I thought I had it easy going into Monday night but barely survived.
I only went 18 players so these late byes are going to kill
Already down Jefferson when I lose Mahomes, Kelce and Tyreek week 10 I think that I will be gone.
So far no major injuries, just one banged up Pickett and gimpy Waller. Jalen and Kamara carried the team this week. Definitely glad I didn't stick with Waller as my top TE option. Maybe give him a week off so I can get him back for Goedert's bye in week 10.
| QB Jalen Hurts - $25 | |
| QB Kenny Pickett - $10 | |
| RB Joe Mixon - $24 | |
| RB Kenneth Walker III - $19 | |
| RB Alvin Kamara - $15 | |
| RB Raheem Mostert - $10 | |
| RB Zack Moss - $4 | |
| WR Amon-Ra St. Brown - $30 | |
| WR Chris Olave - $27 | |
| WR George Pickens - $15 | |
| WR Elijah Moore - $11 | |
| WR Tank Dell - $3 | |
| TE Dallas Goedert - $18 | |
| TE Darren Waller - $17 | |
| TE Jake Ferguson - $6 | |
| PK Jason Sanders - $4 | |
| PK Dustin Hopkins - $3 | |
| PK Cairo Santos - $3 | |
| TD Detroit Lions - $3 | |
| TD Los Angeles Chargers - $3 |
Balco
Footballguy
Who are your other tight ends? I have Waller and Engram too. But only carried Jake Ferguson as the third.
Galileo
Footballguy
Going to be tough to hang on this week. I have been riding the coat tails of ARSB and LaPorta (used both every week except ARSB's missed game) who are both on bye. Also lose DET Def and Tank Bigsby (only roster spot never used so no big loss there). Although only 4 spots on bye, I am a Chubb survivor and have a 19 man roster. I feel this is the end of the line, unless I get some unexpected magic.
@Puppies post made me revisit the "mulligan team". Here goes:
QB -Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/10 - $14
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Christian McCaffrey - SF/9 - $34
RB - Travis Etienne - JAC/9 - $23
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Raheem Mostert - MIA/10 - $10
RB - Kyren Williams - LAR/10 - $4
RB - Zack Moss - IND/11 - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - MIA/10 - $33
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/5 - $21
WR - Jakobi Meyers - LV/13 - $12
WR - Adam Thielen - CAR/7 - $11
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Josh Reynolds - DET/9 - $3
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/13 - $10
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
TE - Logan Thomas - WAS/14 - $6
TE - Jonnu Smith - ATL/11 - $3
PK - Brandon McManus - JAC/9 - $4
PK - Dustin Hopkins - CLE/5 - $3
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT/6 - $6
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAC/9 - $4
This roster's weekly scores would be:
Week 1 - 231.80
Week 2 - 241.75
Week 3 - 282.60
Week 4 - 259.50
Week 5 - 242.30
Week 6 - 231.10
Week 7 - 195.50
Week 8 - 231.75
QB -Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/10 - $14
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Christian McCaffrey - SF/9 - $34
RB - Travis Etienne - JAC/9 - $23
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Raheem Mostert - MIA/10 - $10
RB - Kyren Williams - LAR/10 - $4
RB - Zack Moss - IND/11 - $4
WR - Tyreek Hill - MIA/10 - $33
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/5 - $21
WR - Jakobi Meyers - LV/13 - $12
WR - Adam Thielen - CAR/7 - $11
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Josh Reynolds - DET/9 - $3
TE - Cole Kmet - CHI/13 - $10
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
TE - Logan Thomas - WAS/14 - $6
TE - Jonnu Smith - ATL/11 - $3
PK - Brandon McManus - JAC/9 - $4
PK - Dustin Hopkins - CLE/5 - $3
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT/6 - $6
TD - Jacksonville Jaguars - JAC/9 - $4
This roster's weekly scores would be:
Week 1 - 231.80
Week 2 - 241.75
Week 3 - 282.60
Week 4 - 259.50
Week 5 - 242.30
Week 6 - 231.10
Week 7 - 195.50
Week 8 - 231.75
a_troll00
Footballguy
$78 dollars of that budget is going to be on bye next week. All it takes is for a few duds from the available players and...
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Wk 8 survival rates by QB status:
Rough QB Week: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106704/week/8 had to be happy with Justin Fields' performace YTD, but due to his injury was stuck with just Garoppolo's 6.5 points for his QB slot this week. A modest QB score of 14.75 would have been enough for him to survive, but Garoppolo couldn't muster that.
Close Call: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101374/week/8 survived by 0.1 points courtesy of the Lions sacking Garoppolo on their second-to-last defensive play of the MNF game. Phew! And rooster 106925 had been surviving by an average of over 62 points above the cutline until this week, when they survived by only 1.25.
Heartbreaker: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108940/week/8 was eliminated thanks to Goff's -0.2 from kneel downs on the final two plays of MNF. Ouch! :(
Faceplant: Rooster 109657 had been averaging over 195 points week 1 through 7, but fell victim to the Turk with a near miss of 151.45 this week. I'd say the primary reason was Mahomes' atypically low performance at QB (12.05).
Luck Ran Out: Rooster 100321 had survived the cut by an average of only 10.25 points over the first 7 weeks, but finally fell victim missing the cut by 14.95 this week.
Playing With Fire: Rooster 104085 (FBG Chaka) has survived the cut by an average of 9.72 through 8 weeks. There are 8 teams still alive who've had a week when they were exactly at the cut line.
Most improved: Rooster 104335 (ALERT THE MEDIA) survived the first 5 weeks by an average of 9.89, including 0.5 in week 2 and 0.85 in week 3, has shown strength in weeks 6 through 8, clearing the line by an average of 45+ points. One of last week's most improved roosters (109920) fell back to earth and was eliminated this week, while rooster 100394 survived.
| # of QBs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Starting (wk 8) | 19% | 60% | 70% | 76% | 77% | 82% | 100% | n/a | n/a |
| Roostered | n/a | 55% | 68% | 73% | 72% | 79% | 75% | n/a | 100% |
Rough QB Week: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106704/week/8 had to be happy with Justin Fields' performace YTD, but due to his injury was stuck with just Garoppolo's 6.5 points for his QB slot this week. A modest QB score of 14.75 would have been enough for him to survive, but Garoppolo couldn't muster that.
Close Call: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101374/week/8 survived by 0.1 points courtesy of the Lions sacking Garoppolo on their second-to-last defensive play of the MNF game. Phew! And rooster 106925 had been surviving by an average of over 62 points above the cutline until this week, when they survived by only 1.25.
Heartbreaker: https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108940/week/8 was eliminated thanks to Goff's -0.2 from kneel downs on the final two plays of MNF. Ouch! :(
Faceplant: Rooster 109657 had been averaging over 195 points week 1 through 7, but fell victim to the Turk with a near miss of 151.45 this week. I'd say the primary reason was Mahomes' atypically low performance at QB (12.05).
Luck Ran Out: Rooster 100321 had survived the cut by an average of only 10.25 points over the first 7 weeks, but finally fell victim missing the cut by 14.95 this week.
Playing With Fire: Rooster 104085 (FBG Chaka) has survived the cut by an average of 9.72 through 8 weeks. There are 8 teams still alive who've had a week when they were exactly at the cut line.
Most improved: Rooster 104335 (ALERT THE MEDIA) survived the first 5 weeks by an average of 9.89, including 0.5 in week 2 and 0.85 in week 3, has shown strength in weeks 6 through 8, clearing the line by an average of 45+ points. One of last week's most improved roosters (109920) fell back to earth and was eliminated this week, while rooster 100394 survived.
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Stray Doug
Footballguy
Week 9 QB Status
# of QBs starting their games, not necessarily total on roster, as of today
0 QB: 67 -> 90
1 QB: 611 -> 664
2 QB: 1025 -> 1013
3 QB: 336 -> 293
4 QB: 40 -> 23
5 QB: 8 -> 4
Rooster 101347 put up a valiant effort as our last remaining Rodgers/Richardson (and no one else) team, but was eliminated by 7.55 points.
Godspeed to rooster 106527 who has Aaron Rodgers out with both Brock Purdy and Russell Wilson on bye this week. Gotta plan those bye weeks better if you're going to take 3 QBs.
Also if Ridder is out, rooster 107618 with be down to Jordan Love, despite rostering 5 expected-to-start QBs.
[Updated numbers shown above (after the arrows) as of Thursday... most significant piece of movement towards there being fewer QBs starting this week was that I now have Stafford as out, but some other tweaks as well]
Added to the misery list this week is rooster 106913 who has Rodgers, Richardson, and Garoppolo injured with Purdy on bye... 4 expected-to-start QBs roostered, 0 playing this week!
# of QBs starting their games, not necessarily total on roster, as of today
0 QB: 67 -> 90
1 QB: 611 -> 664
2 QB: 1025 -> 1013
3 QB: 336 -> 293
4 QB: 40 -> 23
5 QB: 8 -> 4
Rooster 101347 put up a valiant effort as our last remaining Rodgers/Richardson (and no one else) team, but was eliminated by 7.55 points.
Godspeed to rooster 106527 who has Aaron Rodgers out with both Brock Purdy and Russell Wilson on bye this week. Gotta plan those bye weeks better if you're going to take 3 QBs.
Also if Ridder is out, rooster 107618 with be down to Jordan Love, despite rostering 5 expected-to-start QBs.
[Updated numbers shown above (after the arrows) as of Thursday... most significant piece of movement towards there being fewer QBs starting this week was that I now have Stafford as out, but some other tweaks as well]
Added to the misery list this week is rooster 106913 who has Rodgers, Richardson, and Garoppolo injured with Purdy on bye... 4 expected-to-start QBs roostered, 0 playing this week!
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Yeah, this team was kinda built more on what they already did versus what they may do from here on out. It was for fun only. of course. A real team that's a favorite of mine is @HairySasquatch He was the first to post his team for Joe's extra bucks, is still alive, and the only non-rookie on the roster is Dustin Hopkins. Here he is...
$78 dollars of that budget is going to be on bye next week. All it takes is for a few duds from the available players and...
jdkapow
Footballguy
I have Fergy and Musgrave.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The big challenge for me this week is at running back as this is the McCaffrey bye week. I also have Tank Bigsby and the Lions one bye, Herbert still injured and Waller and Pickett iffy. Including the last 2 here's what I am rolling with:
QB: Burrow, Pickett
RB: K Walker III, Gainwell, C Evans
WR: Chase, Puka, Dotson, Doubs, Dell, Pierce, Mi Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Otton, Musgrave, Waller
PK: Hopkins, Sanders, Santos
DEF: Chargers, RAMIT
Hoping the WR depth shines through this week.
-QG
QB: Burrow, Pickett
RB: K Walker III, Gainwell, C Evans
WR: Chase, Puka, Dotson, Doubs, Dell, Pierce, Mi Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Otton, Musgrave, Waller
PK: Hopkins, Sanders, Santos
DEF: Chargers, RAMIT
Hoping the WR depth shines through this week.
-QG
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Similar boats...I suspect Pickett plays and Waller doesn't, leaving meQB: Burrow, Pickett
RB: K Walker III, Gainwell, C Evans
WR: Chase, Puka, Dotson, Doubs, Dell, Pierce, Mi Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Otton, Musgrave, Waller
PK: Hopkins, Sanders, Santos
DEF: Chargers, RAMIT
QB: Pickett
RB: Warren, Mosfert, Elliott
WR: Wilson, Pickens, Dotson, Davis, Dell
TE: Conklin
PK: Elliott, Zuerline, Hopkins
TD: Seattle
I'm guessing the cutoff is 125 and this lineup projects 120. The WRs look ok...but the variance (and downside) is pretty big.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Preliminary estimate based on injuries/backups/byes as known of today is that 30% of roosters will be playing with $78+ dead money. Median is $63 (mean is $64). 10% of roosters will have $100+ dead money.
I'm currently looking at $51 dead money (McCaffrey + Waller) which puts me at the 67th percentile in terms of "least dead money this week", which seems a pretty decent place to start the week.
----
Updating this, I added one more category of Dead Money, which are guys who are "barely" playing... I guess technically not dead money, but mostly dead money. ("I'm not dead yet!" "Meh, you will be soon..."). These are guys who are putting up minimal points at non-K/D positions and haven't shown any signs of late that they have a chance to meaningfully contribute to a team's score in week 9.
Some of the wider-owned examples include Tank Bigsby, Van Jefferson, Juwan Johnson, Dalvin Cook, my own Isaiah Hodgins, and Elijah Mitchell. Average is $13 per team in this category.
Updated to include these guys 30% of roosters will be playing with $91+ (mostly) dead money. Median is $76 (mean is $77). 10% of roosters will have $114+ (mostly) dead money. I'm at $57, which is 74th percentile for "least dead money this week". Feeling good about that.
I'm currently looking at $51 dead money (McCaffrey + Waller) which puts me at the 67th percentile in terms of "least dead money this week", which seems a pretty decent place to start the week.
----
Updating this, I added one more category of Dead Money, which are guys who are "barely" playing... I guess technically not dead money, but mostly dead money. ("I'm not dead yet!" "Meh, you will be soon..."). These are guys who are putting up minimal points at non-K/D positions and haven't shown any signs of late that they have a chance to meaningfully contribute to a team's score in week 9.
Some of the wider-owned examples include Tank Bigsby, Van Jefferson, Juwan Johnson, Dalvin Cook, my own Isaiah Hodgins, and Elijah Mitchell. Average is $13 per team in this category.
Updated to include these guys 30% of roosters will be playing with $91+ (mostly) dead money. Median is $76 (mean is $77). 10% of roosters will have $114+ (mostly) dead money. I'm at $57, which is 74th percentile for "least dead money this week". Feeling good about that.
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This week's options are:
QB - Justin Herbert & Sam Howell
RB - Joe Mixon, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott
WR - Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, Jahan Dotson, Zay Flowers, Van Jefferson, Parris Campbell
TE - Darren Waller (dunno), Jake Ferguson, Luke Musgrave, Noah Gray
PK - Dustin Hopkins, Anders Carlson, Cairo Santos
TD - LA Chargers, Houston Texans
I have a feeling this will be the first week I get to use Van Jefferson. Let's roll!
QB - Justin Herbert & Sam Howell
RB - Joe Mixon, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott
WR - Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, Jahan Dotson, Zay Flowers, Van Jefferson, Parris Campbell
TE - Darren Waller (dunno), Jake Ferguson, Luke Musgrave, Noah Gray
PK - Dustin Hopkins, Anders Carlson, Cairo Santos
TD - LA Chargers, Houston Texans
I have a feeling this will be the first week I get to use Van Jefferson. Let's roll!
Bill Dauterive
Footballguy
I like the "dead money" way of looking at each week that @Stray Doug was using. If I'm doing the math right, I have $60 dead and $65 mostly dead (Deuce Vaughn is the extra $5) for week 9, putting me pretty close to the median. That leaves me with this lineup for the week; I think that's a fairly good shot at getting to week 10, which is one of my two weakest weeks.
QB
Bryce Young
Sam Howell
RB
Rachaad White
Jerome Ford
Deuce Vaughn
WR
Tyreek Hill
Michael Pittman Jr.
Jahan Dotson
Jonathan Mingo
Josh Downs
DeVante Parker
Puka Nacua
TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
Logan Thomas
PK
Chris Boswell
Cameron Dicker
D
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers
QB
Bryce Young
Sam Howell
RB
Rachaad White
Jerome Ford
Deuce Vaughn
WR
Tyreek Hill
Michael Pittman Jr.
Jahan Dotson
Jonathan Mingo
Josh Downs
DeVante Parker
Puka Nacua
TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Hayden Hurst
Noah Fant
Logan Thomas
PK
Chris Boswell
Cameron Dicker
D
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers
Puppies
Footballguy
I hope you're right about Van Jefferson. I have him filed under "dead money"
Could sure use his help this week with Aiyuk and Engram on bye. Those two players have both counted in my score and added to my total each week, except for the week Aiyuk was out injured.
I currently have $42 in dead money: Nick Chubb @ $30, Van Jefferson @ $8, and Parris Campbell @ $4. Everyone else on my roster has contributed at least one week and all of them are healthy and active this week as far as I can tell.
Good luck to everyone in week 9. I know I'm going to need a lot of luck in order to stay alive much longer...
This week I have 4 of my 21 players on bye, which as a Chubb survivor, is going to be tough to overcome. The biggest loss is LaPorta, with Waller banged up. Really need Taysom Hill to have another big game this week. Here's what I've got to work with this week:
QB: Tua (Goff on bye)
RB: Pierce, Kamara, Chris Evans (Chubb gone, Khalil Herbert hurt, Bigsby on bye)
WR: G. Wilson, Lockett, Dotson, Palmer, M. Wilson (Sutton on bye)
TE: Waller, Hill (LaPorta on bye)
PK: Zuerlein (McManus on bye)
D: Falcons, Panthers
Basically have no depth at QB, RB, K, and possibly TE if Waller can't go, so no margin for error for those guys I'm counting on.
QB: Tua (Goff on bye)
RB: Pierce, Kamara, Chris Evans (Chubb gone, Khalil Herbert hurt, Bigsby on bye)
WR: G. Wilson, Lockett, Dotson, Palmer, M. Wilson (Sutton on bye)
TE: Waller, Hill (LaPorta on bye)
PK: Zuerlein (McManus on bye)
D: Falcons, Panthers
Basically have no depth at QB, RB, K, and possibly TE if Waller can't go, so no margin for error for those guys I'm counting on.
apalmer
Footballguy
Dead money this week: Chubb (30), K. Herbert (13), K. Williams (4), Ridley (21), London (18), LaPorta (9), McManus (4)=$99. That leaves:
QB: Mahomes, Pickett
RB: Kamara, Pierce
WR: D. Johnson, Dotson, Flowers, Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Ferguson, Musgrave
K: Dicker, Fairbaim
D: Carolina, Chargers
So, I have exactly 2 scores among my WRs and TEs to throw out. Everyone else will need to give me good scores. Last week I had two kickers over 17 points--I need at least one to do something similar this week. It would also be a great week for one of my Ds to score a couple TDs, please.
FBG projections have me at 126 points for the week. :gulp:
QB: Mahomes, Pickett
RB: Kamara, Pierce
WR: D. Johnson, Dotson, Flowers, Wilson
TE: Kincaid, Ferguson, Musgrave
K: Dicker, Fairbaim
D: Carolina, Chargers
So, I have exactly 2 scores among my WRs and TEs to throw out. Everyone else will need to give me good scores. Last week I had two kickers over 17 points--I need at least one to do something similar this week. It would also be a great week for one of my Ds to score a couple TDs, please.
FBG projections have me at 126 points for the week. :gulp:
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brun
Footballguy
Not scientific but if I use week 8 scores w/o my week 9 bye guys and Bourne. I get about 140. If I reduce the K production about half, as it's unlikely I get 17 again from that position. I get about 132 which I'll accept as a realistic possibility. It's probably going to be a real sweat the whole weekend.
jdkapow
Footballguy
$57 dead here, assuming no Stafford or Waller. Could be worse!
dbc925
Footballguy
Going without Goff, LaPorta, McManus and the Denver D this week. That was 72.7 points last week. Doesn’t give me a warm fuzzy going with:
QB - Love and Howell
RB - Mixon, Kamara, Warren, Gainwell, Moss (Conner on IR)
WR - Olive, Diontae, Flowers, MVS, Downs, Shakir, Nacua
TE - Waller (probably out) and Njoku
K - Sanders and Santos
D - WAS and LAC
It will definitely be my worst week. Hopefully it’s enough on Sunday since I only have the LAC D to pull me out if it’s close.
QB - Love and Howell
RB - Mixon, Kamara, Warren, Gainwell, Moss (Conner on IR)
WR - Olive, Diontae, Flowers, MVS, Downs, Shakir, Nacua
TE - Waller (probably out) and Njoku
K - Sanders and Santos
D - WAS and LAC
It will definitely be my worst week. Hopefully it’s enough on Sunday since I only have the LAC D to pull me out if it’s close.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I propose to give this category the nickname Deadbeats, whereas there is a 4th category of players that give you a 50/50 shot of scoring >10 or <3....slightly different than no chance to contribute.
This 4th category feels like the category that should be called "I'm not dead yet!". They tend to be cheaper players who's score has counted a couple times and may count again in the future. Zeke Elliott ($7) has counted for me twice with >9 points (basically fell in the end zone)....and Tank Dell had a couple blowup weeks early (he's probably a deadbeat at this point, but hope springs eternal).
Permanently Dead ($48) - done for the year
Rodgers, Chubb, Bourne
Temporarily Dead ($68) - bye week or will not play
Goff, Gibbs, Waller, LaPorta, Lions D
I'm Not Dead Yet! ($10)
Elliot ($7), Dell ($3)
Deadbeats ($0) - ask me again after Week 9
Galileo
Footballguy
Week 9...
QB: Herbert, Love
RB: Mixon, Kamara, Elliott (Chubb and Bigsby - $39 dead)
WR: Wilson, Pickens, E. Moore, Doubs (ARSB - $30 dead)
TE: Waller??? (LaPorta - $9 dead and very possibly $26 dead if Waller is out)
K: Santos, Fairbairn, Hopkins
D: Chicago (Detroit - $3 dead)
Depending on Waller, looking at $95 out this week. Gulp.
QB: Herbert, Love
RB: Mixon, Kamara, Elliott (Chubb and Bigsby - $39 dead)
WR: Wilson, Pickens, E. Moore, Doubs (ARSB - $30 dead)
TE: Waller??? (LaPorta - $9 dead and very possibly $26 dead if Waller is out)
K: Santos, Fairbairn, Hopkins
D: Chicago (Detroit - $3 dead)
Depending on Waller, looking at $95 out this week. Gulp.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
If he wasn't playing, I'd be rolling with $126 dead money #mindblown.For those of you with Kenny Pickett, he says he is playing Thursday night. And he put in a full practice today, and is NOT on the injury report.
Players over 20% ownership:
41.7% - TE Darren Waller
38.7% - WR Jahan Dotson
36.3% - QB Sam Howell
34.4% - TE Sam LaPorta
33.7% - RB Alvin Kamara
32.0% - WR Zay Flowers
27.4% - RB Raheem Mostert
27.0% - PK Cameron Dicker
25.3% - RB James Cook
24.6% - TE Dalton Kincaid
24.4% - TE Luke Musgrave
23.8% - WR Calvin Ridley
23.3% - RB Zack Moss
21.2% - RB Khalil Herbert
20.1% - TE Jake Ferguson
Did I miss anyone?
41.7% - TE Darren Waller
38.7% - WR Jahan Dotson
36.3% - QB Sam Howell
34.4% - TE Sam LaPorta
33.7% - RB Alvin Kamara
32.0% - WR Zay Flowers
27.4% - RB Raheem Mostert
27.0% - PK Cameron Dicker
25.3% - RB James Cook
24.6% - TE Dalton Kincaid
24.4% - TE Luke Musgrave
23.8% - WR Calvin Ridley
23.3% - RB Zack Moss
21.2% - RB Khalil Herbert
20.1% - TE Jake Ferguson
Did I miss anyone?
Using a combination of monkey math, astrology, and McDaniel's play sheet, I estimated the cut line in week 9 to be 121.4. Using those same assumptions, here are the projections for the $100 teams advancing to week 10.
ZWK | 162.24 |
Flyjetz | 148.93 |
TrishaRitasBoys | 142.94 |
Entry 100158 | 141.15 |
ShaunZ | 138.33 |
HULK | 135.77 |
P U P P I E S | 134.63 |
QuizGuy66 | 132.33 |
JaBoo | 132.32 |
The Mongol Horde | 131.6 |
Entry 109712 | 130.53 |
fear the bald | 129.62 |
FlyEagle | 125.51 |
Big Parms Cats | 125.46 |
Entry 106765 | 123.83 |
There are four players on this list who aren't playing. I have 3 of them on my team....
jdkapow
Footballguy
Nope, you got them all.
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
I’m the the bottom team on that list….106765. I’m actually surprised to see my projections above the projected cut line.
These are my players that are most likely out this week:
Goff
Rodgers
Herbert
Bigsby
Sutton
Mims
Reynolds
Waller
LaPorta
Jags defense
That’s a 10 players and $100+ dead money. I created a 28 player roster to be able to withstand weeks like this but this is pushing the limit. I need a lot of Pickett to Pickens tomorrow!
Thanks for doing this analysis. Very fascinating info and it’s much appreciated.
Week 9 kicks off with:
Pittsburgh Steelers
399/19.1% - RB Jaylen Warren
366/17.5% - WR George Pickens
352/16.9% - QB Kenny Pickett
166/8.0% - WR Diontae Johnson
134/6.4% - PK Chris Boswell
131/6.3% - TD Pittsburgh Steelers
41/2.0% - WR Allen Robinson
34/1.6% - TE Pat Freiermuth - OUT
20/1.0% - RB Najee Harris
13/0.6% - TE Darnell Washington
Tennessee Titans
173/8.3% - RB Tyjae Spears
139/6.7% - TD Tennessee Titans
89/4.3% - WR DeAndre Hopkins
49/2.3% - Chigoziem Okonkwo
49/2.3% - QB Ryan Tannehill - OUT
30/1.4% - WR Treylon Burks
25/1.2% - RB Derrick Henry
7/0.3% - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
5/0.2% - QB Will Levis
Looking at the ownership numbers/percentages, it's very clear which team will move the needle.
This team gets my vote for leader after Thursday's game. Of his $250, $109 is dead this week, and of the remaining $141, $101 will be on this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers
399/19.1% - RB Jaylen Warren
366/17.5% - WR George Pickens
352/16.9% - QB Kenny Pickett
166/8.0% - WR Diontae Johnson
134/6.4% - PK Chris Boswell
131/6.3% - TD Pittsburgh Steelers
41/2.0% - WR Allen Robinson
34/1.6% - TE Pat Freiermuth - OUT
20/1.0% - RB Najee Harris
13/0.6% - TE Darnell Washington
Tennessee Titans
173/8.3% - RB Tyjae Spears
139/6.7% - TD Tennessee Titans
89/4.3% - WR DeAndre Hopkins
49/2.3% - Chigoziem Okonkwo
49/2.3% - QB Ryan Tannehill - OUT
30/1.4% - WR Treylon Burks
25/1.2% - RB Derrick Henry
7/0.3% - WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
5/0.2% - QB Will Levis
Looking at the ownership numbers/percentages, it's very clear which team will move the needle.
This team gets my vote for leader after Thursday's game. Of his $250, $109 is dead this week, and of the remaining $141, $101 will be on this game.
I have mentioned it a few times. Hopefully someone will when they have some time.
It drives meCRAZY.
Sorry but checked with @Contest Turk and he'd hoped to be able to do this for this season but it'll be next season before he's able to try and change this. Sorry.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
A few players who have seen their projected weekly scores increase significantly in last few weeks
Jonathan Taylor: 1 living rooster (started on 17)
Kyler Murray: 2 living roosters (started on 22)
Gardner Minshew: 2 living roosters (started on 16)
Taylor Heinicke: 4 living roosters (started on 16)
Will Levis: 5 living roosters (started on 24)
Jahmyr Gibbs: 353 living roosters (started on 1,606) - BYE
Jonathan Taylor: 1 living rooster (started on 17)
Kyler Murray: 2 living roosters (started on 22)
Gardner Minshew: 2 living roosters (started on 16)
Taylor Heinicke: 4 living roosters (started on 16)
Will Levis: 5 living roosters (started on 24)
Jahmyr Gibbs: 353 living roosters (started on 1,606) - BYE
