2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[Stray Doug]

I've got 125.8 as the end of Q1 cut lion... was a low scoring opener... did Cook get benched after his fumble? Didn't see an injury but Murray's been getting the carries since.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.

130.2 at halftime

131.65 after Q3. Best of luck to those close to the line!

 

[Shaunz33]

I've got 125.8 as the end of Q1 cut lion... was a low scoring opener... did Cook get benched after his fumble? Didn't see an injury but Murray's been getting the carries since.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.

130.2 at halftime

131.65 after Q3. Best of luck to those close to the line!

I’m 131.5 after 3rd. Need another gabe catch or two.

 

[Shaunz33]

I've got 125.8 as the end of Q1 cut lion... was a low scoring opener... did Cook get benched after his fumble? Didn't see an injury but Murray's been getting the carries since.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.

130.2 at halftime

131.65 after Q3. Best of luck to those close to the line!

I’m 131.5 after 3rd. Need another gabe catch or two.

Also would have been nice if scoring rules included that 2pt for gabe earlier. It doesn’t count in this contest.

 

[jdkapow]

I've got 125.8 as the end of Q1 cut lion... was a low scoring opener... did Cook get benched after his fumble? Didn't see an injury but Murray's been getting the carries since.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.

130.2 at halftime

131.65 after Q3. Best of luck to those close to the line!

I’m 131.5 after 3rd. Need another gabe catch or two.

Also would have been nice if scoring rules included that 2pt for gabe earlier. It doesn’t count in this contest.

The two fumbles would have helped keep the line down but they don't count either.

 

[Stray Doug]

I've got 125.8 as the end of Q1 cut lion... was a low scoring opener... did Cook get benched after his fumble? Didn't see an injury but Murray's been getting the carries since.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.

130.2 at halftime

131.65 after Q3. Best of luck to those close to the line!

135.5 at 2 min warning after Allen TD... gonna be awfully close to jdk's 136.1 estimate

 

[Shaunz33]

good luck all. See you for post season contest

 

[Stray Doug]

I think it wound up at 135.85

 

[PIK95]

How many points did Cook get? Mims did nothing, I think I am out

 

[cstruk]

Hope that 135 is it as I closed at 138.35 thanks to Cook’s last drive.

 

[cstruk]

Cook got 13

 

[PIK95]

Cook got 13

I was at 121.3. DOH!

 

[Puppies]

Puppies tails are not wagging tonight

I didn't expect to even have a chance, but with Cook's last series I was at 123.50, and hoping for a TD pass to Kincaid to finish the drive. Even if that happened It probably would not be enough, but at least it would have given me 131.60 and a long shot if the cut line didn't move more than 6.70 tonight. Josh Allen running in for the TD himself ended all hope. Puppies are out.

I'll probalby still hang around in the forum a little, and I'll see all of you in the playoff contest.

Good luck to everyone who survived this week. I hope some of you are able to cash in on the @Joe Bryant $100 bonus!

 

[jdkapow]

I think it wound up at 135.85

I get 136.2 but it wouldn't surprise me if I have an error somewhere.

 

[Stray Doug]

I think it wound up at 135.85

I get 136.2 but it wouldn't surprise me if I have an error somewhere.

Same... let's just say it's 136-ish.

Actually I just caught one, I had Cook at 12 instead of 13, pushing my cut lion up to 136.1

 

[jdkapow]

I think it wound up at 135.85

I get 136.2 but it wouldn't surprise me if I have an error somewhere.

Same... let's just say it's 136-ish.

Actually I just caught one, I had Cook at 12 instead of 13, pushing my cut lion up to 136.1

Looks like I had it right: 136.2.

 

[scottybo]

I think it wound up at 135.85

I get 136.2 but it wouldn't surprise me if I have an error somewhere.

Same... let's just say it's 136-ish.

Actually I just caught one, I had Cook at 12 instead of 13, pushing my cut lion up to 136.1

Looks like I had it right: 136.2.

And you shall recieve a chicken dinner.

 

[brewer]

Thank you Dalton Kincaid! Cleared the bar by 1 point. Let's go!

 

[Puppies]

Year to Date Averages through Week 10

This Wk 10​	Last Week​	FootballGuy:	Size	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week9	Week 10	Total	Average
1​	1​	ZWK	26​	165.25	182.25	191.50	216.30	223.55	168.00	218.30	180.45	160.85	162.25	1868.70	186.87​
2​	2​	Scottybo	20​	125.90	182.45	216.75	133.85	209.55	189.20	194.55	167.65	182.55	156.00	1758.45	175.85​
3​	3​	jdkapow	24​	164.05	169.85	199.75	147.40	221.30	170.45	183.90	199.15	136.65	161.70	1754.20	175.42​
4​	6​	The Stray Doug	19​	186.90	153.25	178.25	210.55	192.00	138.75	173.15	208.50	134.60	177.05	1753.00	175.30​
5​	7​	TrishaRitasBoys	21​	159.05	183.15	206.35	162.15	170.85	192.80	148.55	195.95	151.15	161.30	1731.30	173.13​
6​	4​	BrncosFan07	28​	126.15	207.24	207.85	169.70	208.90	173.35	166.70	168.90	156.70	145.65	1731.14	173.11​
7​	8​	QuizGuy66	25​	140.50	168.10	192.35	194.55	195.15	121.65	173.70	178.35	184.50	164.75	1713.60	171.36​
8​	9​	dbc925	25​	150.95	177.15	170.95	150.20	202.00	154.75	174.20	207.35	149.05	156.20	1692.80	169.28​
9​	10​	cStruk	21​	152.40	189.25	177.95	206.85	183.70	131.75	155.75	196.25	132.25	138.35	1664.50	166.45​
10​	11​	Senior VDB Student	22​	140.75	193.05	181.25	141.10	189.00	161.45	162.00	177.90	138.50	168.15	1653.15	165.32​
11​	14​	fear the bald	20​	153.80	169.70	131.80	162.50	201.80	143.55	154.95	172.75	176.35	180.80	1648.00	164.80​
12​	13​	The Winz	23​	152.00	152.35	167.15	139.35	171.20	156.25	169.45	209.55	159.25	167.85	1644.40	164.44​
13​	15​	Bill Dauterive	25​	183.05	171.85	141.70	153.90	165.60	126.95	166.85	212.55	142.65	149.90	1615.00	161.50​
14​	17​	Deamon	21​	132.80	191.60	190.85	176.25	155.65	140.35	164.90	170.15	117.70	141.15	1581.40	158.14​

Missed the Cut in week 10 : aPalmer, Jdoggydogg, PIK95, Puppies, Woolac

 

[PIK95]

Missed by 1.9! Mostert and Puka on bye, Etienne and Downs down weeks. Dotson...well he Dotsoned. Amazingly Waller was the only injury I had all year. I instantly knew I would regret not taking a third defense, and this week it mattered. Tennessee only had five. Good luck everyone, that was fun.

 

[TheWinz]

Week 10 started with 19 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @Puppies @apalmer @wollac @Shaunz33

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @QuizGuy66 @cstruk @ZWK @Kruegs @scottybo @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @firstseason1988 @SeniorVBDStudent @bamabuddha
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00 @Deamon
Page 7 - @HairySasquatch

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @bamabuddha with 180.8 points. Five RB's in double digits must be nice.
- Our lowest survivor was @cstruk with 138.35 points, and he needed all those James Cook yards on that last drive.
- The overall contest survival rate is 10.27%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 38.46%.

Bring on week 11!

 

[jdkapow]

Awards and notable teams of the week.

Strongest Living Team: One Giant Loss (#107797), who has been dominant to this point in the contest, narrowly avoided the Turk this week, clearing the cutline by just 1.2 points. As a result, we no longer have any teams averaging over 200 points per week, as this close call brought their average down to 195. Still, nobody else is over 190, so One Giant Loss remains the strongest team in the contest by a wide margin.

Strongest Dead Team: Lavalley01 (#103589) and Cake or Death (#100791) remain the strongest dead teams. Lavalley01 stays in 8th overall, while Cake or Death slipped a bit from 10th down to 13th. The next 6 strongest dead teams were all eliminated just this week. Entry #109657, in 35th overall, is the strongest team to have missed the cutline twice.

Keep Your Day Job Award: Nobody is ever going to catch the very silly Entry #102381, still averaging 57 points a week where no other team is under 89. We have a new leader as the worst “serious” team, though, because Entry #104339 has topped 100 three weeks in a row now, including clearing the cutline in week 9. The new leader is Entry #102876, averaging 97.1 points per week. They cleared 120 four times in the first five weeks but it’s all been downhill from there. Gambling on Aaron Rodgers as your only QB turned out not to be the best strategy.

Safest Team: There are no longer any teams that have always cleared the cutline by 40 points. The new safest team is Chupacabra (#103765), who have always clared by at least 39.35 points. They’re the safest by a lot: no other team is over 34.

If we go by average clearance instead of minimum, One Giant Loss still leads, clearing the cutline by 64.6 points on average. Chupacabra is second, at 59.4.

Just Skating By Award: New leader here: Entry #106587 has never cleared the cutline by more than 26.05 points. The lowest average clearance for a living team belongs to Mickles (#102084), who clear by only 13.6 points on average.

Steady Eddie Award: The lowest standard deviation for a living team crawled over 8 this week. Entry #101343 and Entry #108539 have the 2nd and 3rd lowest standard deviations overall and the lowest for living teams, at 8.1 and 8.4 respectively. Their scores are clustered in the same area: they’ve each scored between 142 and 164 every week.

Crazy Eddie Award: No change here: GUNMAN1217 still has the highest standard deviation among living teams, at 43.4, but they continued dropping down the overall list, from 36th to 74th. It’s hard to be highly inconsistent and still alive!

Icarus Award: Entry #107999 and Entry #107163 had the 3rd and 4th highest average scores in the entire contest through 9 weeks, only to collapse this week and get eliminated. Entry #107999 had Hurts and Tua as their only QBs, which suggests a lack of foresight. Entry #107163 had Hurts and Carr, which speaks more to bad luck.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: There are 74 teams that were eliminated in week 1 but have cleared the cutline every week since. Dirtypirates (#107096), who’s led this category for weeks, is no longer one of them, as they scored well below in week 10. The new leader is Entry #102923, who has averaged over 175 points per week after their 107 point week 1 debacle. They are the 146th strongest team in the contest overall.

 

[jdkapow]

Notable Teams:

QBs: The last two 6-QB teams survived another week. Entry #100302 and Entry #108571 have managed what the other 23 6-QB teams could not…so far.

RBs: The last remaining 10-RB team, Entry #104404, also survived another week.

WRs: Oh, I’m sad. Entry #105705, with all 14 of their WRs, hung in there so long, but week 10 was the end of the road. Now the nation turns its lonely eyes to Entry #100272, the last survivor of the original thirteen 12-WR teams.

TEs: No change: Walts Froze Head (#105214), the last 7-TE team standing, made it through yet another week.

PKs: Of the 54 teams that rostered 5 Ks, only two remain, Entry #102778 and Badgers (#101746). Don’t roster that many kickers, kids.

DEFs: Nothing wrong with rostering six defenses though. Of the 15 teams that rostered that many, 3 still remain. That 20% survival rate nearly doubles the overall rate for the contest.

Dollars: Entry #104361 is still with us, despite spending only $241 to assemble their roster. There are three remaining teams (out of 45 originally) who left enough money and roster spots on the table that they could easily have added someone else with no downside.

 

[jdkapow]

And now the players:

Eliminated Players: Five more players are no longer contributing to living teams, bringing the total number of zombie players to 13. Say goodbye to Trey Lance, Robbie Gould, Deneric Prince, Russell Gage, and the surprising outlier here as he has actually been putting up points for his teams, Gardner Minshew.

The Biggest Mistake: Jerry Jeudy (102 rosterers), Pat Freiermuth (356 rosterers) and Justin Jefferson (1065 rosterers) are clearly the biggest mistakes among commonly-rostered players: they all have survival rates under 2.3%.

The Survivor: Taylor Heinicke has a solid 25% survival rate, but he was only rostered on 24 teams to begin with. Next on the list are Puka Nacua (905 rosterers), at 23%, and Sam Howell (2374 rosterers), at 22%.

The Bargain: Nacua ($3) and Howell ($8) seem the obvious choices here.

The Parasite: Leonard Fournette, who still hasn’t scored a single point, has the 6th-highest survival rate in the contest, right at 20%.

 

[Dacomish]

No ties this week affected the UNOFFICIAL cut after each week (barring future ties):

Start 9966
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 8971
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 8077
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 7271
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 5817
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 4657
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 3726
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 2981
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2087
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1462
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1024
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 717
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 502
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 302
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.

 

[brun]

My team is done. This matches my longest run in this contest.
Congrats and good luck to those still in it. Condolences to those who are not.
Now waiting for the playoff contest.

On the bright side. This was my 1st week using Zeke. Leaving Pickett as my only unused player, out of 24, for the contest.

 

[dbc925]

Week 11, here I come. It’s been a while since I breathed this rarefied air. Refresh my memory. At what point do I start paying attention to uniqueness of roster?

Other than Darren Waller being out this week,I’ll be without Kamala, Moss, Downs, and.my big hurt, Olave. That’s $69 in dead money.

Fortunately, my four remaining RBs are getting starter time (Mixon, Conner, Gainwell and Warren).. if I’m out, it will be due to my WRs. Diontae, Flowers, MVS, Shakir and Puca. No doubt I’ll need nice games from both TEs.

If I somehow get to the week 13 Bye-mageddon, I’m without Flowers, Shakir, Santos, and Waller. Not my worst bye week, although that’s where every point counts.

It’s weird still being in it.

 

[QuizGuy66]

NGL I just had to look up who Deneric Prince is

-QG

 

[TheWinz]

First time I used 2 RB's in the flex spots. Through 10 weeks:

WR Tyreek Hill ($33 - 103 remain) - Used 9 times
RB Joe Mixon ($24 - 116 remain) - Used 8 times
PK Dustin Hopkins ($3 - 210 remain) - Used 8 times
RB Alvin Kamara ($15 - 360 remain) - Used 7 times
WR Zay Flowers ($10 - 364 remain) - Used 7 times
TE Jake Ferguson ($6 - 303 remain) - Used 7 times
RB James Cook ($18 - 304 remain) - Used 6 times
QB Justin Herbert ($21 - 120 remain) - Used 5 times
WR Tyler Lockett ($19 - 85 remain) - Used 5 times
TE Darren Waller ($17 - 396 remain) - Used 5 times
WR Jahan Dotson ($14 - 461 remain) - Used 5 times
QB Sam Howell ($8 - 519 remain) - Used 5 times
TD Los Angeles Chargers ($3 - 219 remain) - Used 5 times
TE Luke Musgrave ($6 - 336 remain) - Used 4 times
RB Javonte Williams ($19 - 57 remain) - Used 3 times
TD Detroit Lions ($3 - 206 remain) - Used 2.5 times
TD Houston Texans ($3 - 63 remain) - Used 2.5 times
RB Ezekiel Elliott ($7 - 178 remain) - Used 2 times
TE Noah Gray ($3 - 71 remain) - Used 2 times
PK Anders Carlson ($3 - 120 remain) - Used 1 time
PK Cairo Santos ($3 - 107 remain) - Used 1 time
WR Van Jefferson ($8 - 108 remain) - Never used
WR Parris Campbell ($4 - 67 remain) - Never used

Now that I typed that out, at least I am glad the bottom 8 were not expensive.

 

[Puppies]

Cut Line Comparison for years 2021 - 2022 - 2023

Note that 2021 was the last year before swithing to a percentage cut line each week, with the percentage getting higher as the season progressed. That's why the cut lines are so much higher in the early weeks of 2021, versus the lower (10%) cut line the first few weeks of 2022 and 2023. the number of teams on bye is shown below the cut line for the applicable weeks.

WEEK >>>​

1​

2​

3​

4​

5​

6​

7​

8​

9​

10​

11​

12​

13​

14​

2023 Cut Line

122.25​

134.55​

125.00​

131.15​

133.50​

120.95​

128.80​

155.05​

117.70​

136.20​

???​

???​

???​

???​

Teams on Bye

4​

2​

6​

---​

4​

4​

4​

---​

6​

2​

2022 Cut Line

125.05​

119.10​

133.05​

142.00​

139.80​

117.35​

120.00​

134.85​

126.15​

141.20​

117.00​

141.70​

145.10​

136.35​

Teams on Bye

4​

4​

2​

6​

4​

4​

---​

6​

2021 Cut Line

151.15​

150.15​

156.30​

143.35​

178.20​

146.35​

116.45​

131.15​

120.05​

138.00​

141.55​

133.45​

146.45​

143.45​

Teams on Bye

4​

6​

2​

4​

4​

2​

2​

4​

4​

 

[QuizGuy66]

Just realized past years with heavier cuts in the last round were probably before the NFL had such late bye weeks like Washington and Arizona have this year.

That last one will be interesting given that Howell is currently on just a feather over half of the live roosters.

-QG

 

[stubby]

I was bounced a couple of weeks ago, but I decided to resurface again to offer congrats to those still alive, as well as lament my Ty Chandler share that would finally be at least one-week relevant.

 

[Puppies]

Just realized past years with heavier cuts in the last round were probably before the NFL had such late bye weeks like Washington and Arizona have this year.

That last one will be interesting given that Howell is currently on just a feather over half of the live roosters.

-QG

@QuizGuy66
It's probably a combination of that, plus the fact that before Footballguys changed to the graduated percentage cuts, the number of teams cut the last few weeks always amounted to the equivalent of 40% to 50%. I remember that under the old system, the final 2 weeks were cuts from 1000 to 500, then 500 to 250. Those last two weeks now are only 40% cut weeks. Also remember that the NFL expanded the season from 16 games to 17 games starting in 2021. So that was probably the reason the bye weeks got pushed a little later.

Looking back at how late the NLF scheduled the bye weeks, here's a list showing the last bye week for each year going back to 2012:

2023=14
2022=13
2021=14
2020=13
2019=12
2018=12
2017=11
2016=13
2015=11
2014=12
2013=12
2012=11

 

[smcindoe]

My annual tradition of throwing together an entry at the last minute without really thinking about it has finally paid off, and I have to say, this has been a lot of fun to follow over the season, especially with some of the work you guys do in this thread.

I look forward to putting a lot more thought into it next year, then going out in week one.

 

[ZWK]

Week 10 started with 19 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @Puppies @apalmer @wollac @Shaunz33

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @QuizGuy66 @cstruk @ZWK @Kruegs @scottybo @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @firstseason1988 @SeniorVBDStudent @bamabuddha
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00 @Deamon
Page 7 - @HairySasquatch

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @bamabuddha with 180.8 points. Five RB's in double digits must be nice.
- Our lowest survivor was @cstruk with 138.35 points, and he needed all those James Cook yards on that last drive.
- The overall contest survival rate is 10.27%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 38.46%.

Bring on week 11!

Only 2 of the 28 staff entries are still alive (7.1%): Adam Harstad & Dan Hindery. Adam Harstad has a thread about their teams.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Of my 4 ghost entries (iterations officially submitted before my final one) 2 are now dead. First impression bit the dust with too many week 10 byes but a good run for that one nonetheless seeing as I did zero research ahead of it. It joins first "serious" entry in the graveyard. After weeks of trailing the others actual entry has come on strong and seems like it actually may be the best of the three left.
-QG

 

[Stray Doug]

Wk 10 survival rates by QB status:

# of QBs starting (Wk 10):	0	1	2	3	4	5
# of roosters:	94	491	590	256	29	2
Surviving roosters:	17	300	464	213	28	2
Survival rate:	18%	61%	79%	83%	97%	100%

Rough QB Week: Rooster 103354 lost Rodgers early this year, and then Garoppolo benched last week, had Stafford on bye, but good thing he rostered a full 5 QBs and still had both Derek Carr and Kenny Pickett going this week. However, Carr's early concussion capped him at 6.5 for the week, and Pickett's full-game hot garbage performance could barely top that with a 7.9 this week. Even a pedestrian 13.8 QB performance would have been enough for him to advance, but Pickett just wasn't up to the task.

Close Calls: Rooster 102248 survived by 0.2 points (and 3 others by a shade more) courtesy of Lutz' FG on the final play of MNF... which he of course missed on the first attempt, only to get a second shot courtesy of 12 men on the field. Phew! Rooster 102848 needed a big game from Russ and got it, edging above the cut lion courtesy of 32 passing yards and 4 rushing yards on the final 2 minute drive of MNF. He almost jumped back into the lion's mouth when Russ kneeled thrice for -6 yards, but managed to remain 0.5 clear.

Heartbreakers: Rooster 101531 had nobody going on MNF, but survived all the way through until that Lutz FG on the last play. Ouch! :( Rooster 105231 started the MNF game over 35 points below the final cutline, but had Allen, Cook, and Kincaid all going for him and putting up solid games to try and push through to week 11... unfortunately they finished 0.5 short.

Faceplants: 17 roosters came into week 10 averaging over 185 points per week... and 8 (almost half) were eaten by the cut lion. Of the eight, 2 had overloaded week 10 byes, 3 others had >$100 dead money (between byes and injuries and guys just not playing), and the other 3 mostly just had off weeks, with 107449 coming closest and missing the cut by less than 2.5 points.

Luck Ran Out: Rooster 104085 (FBG Chaka) had been playing with fire for weeks, having survived the cut by an average of only 9.69 points over the first 9 weeks, but finally fell victim missing the cut by less than 6 points this week.

Playing With Fire: Rooster 103215 had yet another close call surviving by 3 points this week, bringing their tally to a remarkable 6 of 10 weeks that they have survived the cut lion by 4.3 points or less. Rooster 103912 had survived by an average of only 10.76 before easily clearing by 59.55 this week, so Rooster 102084 now holds the smallest average weekly clearance with 13.6. And Rooster 108539 has the lowest "max score" of any surviving team, having never broken past the 161.5 they posted way back in week 2.

Most improved: New to this category is Rooster 103725 who survived the first 7 weeks by an average of 27.5, including just 4.1 in week 7, but has shown strength since clearing the line by an average of 73.1(!) points weeks 8-10. Previous most improved Roosters 101280, 104355, and 100394 all regressed and were eaten by the cut lion this week, however 109158 had another strong (189.5) performance.

 

[BassNBrew]

Week 11, here I come. It’s been a while since I breathed this rarefied air. Refresh my memory. At what point do I start paying attention to uniqueness of roster?

Other than Darren Waller being out this week,I’ll be without Kamala, Moss, Downs, and.my big hurt, Olave. That’s $69 in dead money.

Fortunately, my four remaining RBs are getting starter time (Mixon, Conner, Gainwell and Warren).. if I’m out, it will be due to my WRs. Diontae, Flowers, MVS, Shakir and Puca. No doubt I’ll need nice games from both TEs.

If I somehow get to the week 13 Bye-mageddon, I’m without Flowers, Shakir, Santos, and Waller. Not my worst bye week, although that’s where every point counts.

It’s weird still being in it.

Whenever you want but
1) it doesn't matter
2) you're already unique

 

[JaBoo]

I was doing a little review of the QB position, wondering about the best combination of QBs would have been through 10 weeks. After looking at 180,000 groups of QBs, I'm still not sure what the answer is, but four combos stuck out to me for their price to points ratio.

Value Town - ($17 - 295.5 pts) Jordan Love and Sam Howell. This combo never dropped below 22 pts, and would likely get you past the cut lion each week. While Howell did most of the heavy lifting, Love stepped up in weeks 3 and 7 when he was needed. For $17 who would you rather have?

Mid Range - ($23 - 342.85 pts) Howell, Stroud and Minshew(?!) The obvious oddball here is Minshew, and to this point he is only used in week 7 when he puts up 41.15 points. But without him you probably get knocked out in week 7. Plus, if he put up 41 already, he might do it again?

Luxury - ($53 - 390.15 pts) Take out Minshew, replace him with Llamar, and throw in Tua for good measure. This super quad of qbs increases your budget for QBs by nearly 150%, but only adds 5 points per week to your average score. However, as you head into the unknown, this foursome seems more fearsome than the previous groups.

Elite - ($64 - 405.25 pts) The best scoring 4-some possible through ten weeks. This list of all-stars and break outs never scored below 30 points a week and averaged 40.5. This group of Allen, Tua, Prescott and Stroud has been the cream of the crop through 10 weeks, but can they maintain it?

Were I going to pick one of these groupings to start a new team going forward, I would probably take the mid range group, and hope for more Minshew magic down the stretch. I just can't stomache spending 20% of my budget on a position group that can only start 1 player. Is that the obvious choice? Would anyone save the 6 bucks and ride with Love and Howell?

​	Week 1​	Week 2​	Week 3​	Week 4​	Week 5​	Week 6​	Week 7​	Week 8​	Week 9​	Week 10​
Value​	31.45​	28.25​	27.85​	24.5​	32.3​	25.85​	22.1​	43.95​	23.95​	35.3​
Mid Range​	22.2​	31.3​	27.4​	28.9​	32.3​	25.85​	41.15​	43.95​	54.5​	35.3​
Luxury​	40.8​	31.3​	39.45​	36​	32.3​	31.1​	45.45​	43.95​	54.5​	35.3​
Elite​	40.8​	32.4​	39.45​	47.7​	36.35​	31.1​	31.95​	40.1​	54.5​	50.9​

 

[QuizGuy66]

74 live roosters have Llamar

-QG

 

[TheWinz]

Week 11 kicks off with the following players:

364 - WR Zay Flowers
194 - TD Baltimore Ravens
116 - RB Joe Mixon
74 - QB Lamar Jackson
61 - PK Evan McPherson
58 - RB JK Dobbins
56 - WR Odell Beckham
56 - PK Justin Tucker
54 - QB Joe Burrow
39 - WR Ja'Marr Chase
35 - TE Isaiah Likely
31 - TE Mark Andrews
30 - RB Chris Evans
23 - WR Rashod Bateman
19 - WR Tyler Boyd
18 - TE Irv Smith
18 - RB Chase Brown
17 - TD Cincinnati Bengals
13 - RB Gus Edwards
4 - WR Tee Higgins

I will be pulling for Flowers and Mixon.

 

[QuizGuy66]

With my 3 Bengals going tomorrow night I will have an early Indication of how it is going...

-QG

 

[Stray Doug]

I was doing a little review of the QB position, wondering about the best combination of QBs would have been through 10 weeks. After looking at 180,000 groups of QBs, I'm still not sure what the answer is, but four combos stuck out to me for their price to points ratio.

Value Town - ($17 - 295.5 pts) Jordan Love and Sam Howell. This combo never dropped below 22 pts, and would likely get you past the cut lion each week. While Howell did most of the heavy lifting, Love stepped up in weeks 3 and 7 when he was needed. For $17 who would you rather have?

Mid Range - ($23 - 342.85 pts) Howell, Stroud and Minshew(?!) The obvious oddball here is Minshew, and to this point he is only used in week 7 when he puts up 41.15 points. But without him you probably get knocked out in week 7. Plus, if he put up 41 already, he might do it again?

Luxury - ($53 - 390.15 pts) Take out Minshew, replace him with Llamar, and throw in Tua for good measure. This super quad of qbs increases your budget for QBs by nearly 150%, but only adds 5 points per week to your average score. However, as you head into the unknown, this foursome seems more fearsome than the previous groups.

Elite - ($64 - 405.25 pts) The best scoring 4-some possible through ten weeks. This list of all-stars and break outs never scored below 30 points a week and averaged 40.5. This group of Allen, Tua, Prescott and Stroud has been the cream of the crop through 10 weeks, but can they maintain it?

Were I going to pick one of these groupings to start a new team going forward, I would probably take the mid range group, and hope for more Minshew magic down the stretch. I just can't stomache spending 20% of my budget on a position group that can only start 1 player. Is that the obvious choice? Would anyone save the 6 bucks and ride with Love and Howell?

​	Week 1​	Week 2​	Week 3​	Week 4​	Week 5​	Week 6​	Week 7​	Week 8​	Week 9​	Week 10​
Value​	31.45​	28.25​	27.85​	24.5​	32.3​	25.85​	22.1​	43.95​	23.95​	35.3​
Mid Range​	22.2​	31.3​	27.4​	28.9​	32.3​	25.85​	41.15​	43.95​	54.5​	35.3​
Luxury​	40.8​	31.3​	39.45​	36​	32.3​	31.1​	45.45​	43.95​	54.5​	35.3​
Elite​	40.8​	32.4​	39.45​	47.7​	36.35​	31.1​	31.95​	40.1​	54.5​	50.9​

If I was building a team going forward from this point (keeping most of my roster intact but making small tweaks focused on this QB question), I'd include Stroud and Howell, but would take a 3rd QB for week 14 purposes... however it would probably be Mayfield over Minshew. He also had a decent performance in week 7 (21.95) which would have been enough for most to survive (I could have taken a 0 at QB that week and still cleared by about 27 points). That'd be an extra $3 at QB ($24 vs. the $21 I actually budgeted for Herbert alone), but give me a stronger floor and probably a similar ceiling given how Stroud and Howell have been performing. To get those extra $3 I'd drop $6 Isaiah Hodgins for the $3 at QB as well as adding either Tank Dell, a 4th K (Hopkins?), or a 3rd D (Chargers)... probably Dell.

Another $24 option would be Prescott and Howell... the way Dallas and Dak are playing the past 3 weeks I wouldn't feel the need for a 2nd QB in week 14. I don't have the same level of confidence in Stroud just yet.

 

[Stray Doug]

Week 11 Starting QBs:
0: 7 Roosters (1%)
1: 141 Roosters (14%)
2: 584 Roosters (57%)
3: 264 Roosters (26%)
4: 26 Roosters (3%)
5: 2 Roosters (<1%)

There are 6 teams remaining who only rostered 1 QB... 1 Jalen Hurts, 1 Patrick Mahomes, and 2 Justin Herbert (including me). The other 2 rostered Sam Howell, which is impressively bold and prescient from a performance POV, however seems short-sighted to be taking a QB 0 in week 14 with 40% of remaining Roosters getting cut that week from amongst those that were clearly the strongest in the contest to have survived that far in the first place (assuming your goal is to make the playoffs and be in the money).

Dead Money Projections (including low scorers as dead):
12% <$40
22% $40-59
31% $60-79
22% $80-99
10% $100-119
3% $120+

KC vs. PHI has the potential to be our biggest MNF cut lion mover of the season so far

 

[QuizGuy66]

Officially dead (out this week or on bye): $22
Possible dead (K Herbert) $13
Might as well be dead (have not counted) : $12

-QG

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Officially dead (out this week or on bye): $22
Possible dead (K Herbert) $13
Might as well be dead (have not counted) : $12

-QG

Permanently Dead (season ending) $48
Temporarily Dead (IR, bye week) $24

Temp W12 $17
Temp W13 $29
Temp W14 $12 (assumes Waller back W14)

 

[(HULK)]

Week 10 started with 19 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @Puppies @apalmer @wollac @Shaunz33

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @QuizGuy66 @cstruk @ZWK @Kruegs @scottybo @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @firstseason1988 @SeniorVBDStudent @bamabuddha
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00 @Deamon
Page 7 - @HairySasquatch

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @bamabuddha with 180.8 points. Five RB's in double digits must be nice.
- Our lowest survivor was @cstruk with 138.35 points, and he needed all those James Cook yards on that last drive.
- The overall contest survival rate is 10.27%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 38.46%.

Bring on week 11!

I continue to be amazed that I haven't yet been eliminated.

 

[(HULK)]

I was bounced a couple of weeks ago, but I decided to resurface again to offer congrats to those still alive, as well as lament my Ty Chandler share that would finally be at least one-week relevant.

He almost counted for me last week. Maybe this week.

 

[Stray Doug]

1/ I averaged the 5 highest scores each player has posted this season (and ignored the bottom 5 scores)
2/ I then calculated a baseline expectation for each player using a formula of $cost/2 + 10 for RB/WR/TE (similar but tweaked formula for other positions since their scoring is different)
Took 1/ and subtracted 2/

Using the (somewhat simple and arbitrary) methodology above, here's the 10 best value players of the season so far by position:

9.8​	C.J. Stroud​	10.8​	Raheem Mostert​	13.9​	Puka Nacua​	7.1​	Cole Kmet​	5.5​	Dustin Hopkins​
9.1​	Sam Howell​	8.3​	Zack Moss​	10.9​	Keenan Allen​	5.4​	Jonnu Smith​	4.0​	Brett Maher​
9.0​	Dak Prescott​	7.6​	Kyren Williams​	9.0​	Tank Dell​	5.4​	Sam LaPorta​	2.8​	Indianapolis Colts​
7.3​	Tua Tagovailoa​	3.3​	De'Von Achane​	8.8​	Adam Thielen​	4.7​	T.J. Hockenson​	2.6​	Dallas Cowboys​
4.6​	Josh Allen​	3.1​	Gus Edwards​	5.8​	Tyreek Hill​	4.5​	Jake Ferguson​	2.6​	Los Angeles Chargers​
4.3​	Kirk Cousins​	1.8​	Travis Etienne Jr.​	5.8​	Nico Collins​	4.4​	Taysom Hill​	2.6​	Greg Zuerlein​
4.2​	Brock Purdy​	1.3​	Jerome Ford​	5.4​	CeeDee Lamb​	3.6​	Dalton Kincaid​	2.3​	Brandon McManus​
3.2​	Baker Mayfield​	1.1​	Christian McCaffrey​	4.8​	DJ Moore​	3.6​	Dalton Schultz​	2.3​	Jake Elliott​
3.2​	Jared Goff​	1.0​	Alvin Kamara​	4.6​	Kendrick Bourne​	3.1​	Logan Thomas​	2.2​	Seattle Seahawks​
3.2​	Justin Herbert​	0.6​	David Montgomery​	4.2​	Mike Evans​	2.4​	George Kittle​	1.9​	Matt Prater​

From this list I make a 26-man team consisting of the top 2 QBs, 7 RBs, 7 WRs, 3 TEs, 4 Ks, and 3 Ds, which costs exactly $250 (players bolded above). I get a team that has averaged 233 points per week, only dipping below 200 points once for a low score of 174.35 (week 7), and a high score of 301.45 (week 3). Zack Moss and the Chargers only count towards the weekly score once, everyone else has 2+ scores. Keenan Allen leads the way with 7 weekly scores, and then Howell, Thielen, and Tyreek each count 6 times.

I'm sure a better performing roster could be constructed by picking and choosing particular players (e.g. to shore up week 7's score) but this is a pretty impressive squad for just letting a simple methodology pick the players... though some of the players might have diminished prospects going forward (e.g. Moss).

 

[TheWinz]

Thru 10 weeks...
- Best $3 spent on kicker - Dustin Hopkins = 12.88 PPG
- Best $4 spent on kicker - Brandon McManus = 10.60 PPG
- Best $5 spent on kicker - Jake Elliott = 11.06 PPG
- Best $6 spent on single kicker - Jason Myers = 10.51 PPG
- Best $6 spent on 2 kickers - Dustin Hopkins & Kaimi Fairbairn = 14.15 PPG
- Best $7 spent on single kicker - Matt Gay = 9.70 PPG
- Best $7 spent on 2 kickers - Dustin Hopkins & Brandon McManus = 14.46 PPG
- Best $8 spent on single kicker - Justin Tucker = 9.2 PPG
- Best $8 spent on 2 kickers - Dustin Hopkins & Jake Elliott = 15.40 PPG

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Thru 10 weeks...
- Best $3 spent on kicker - Dustin Hopkins = 12.88 PPG
- Best $4 spent on kicker - Brandon McManus = 10.60 PPG
- Best $5 spent on kicker - Jake Elliott = 11.06 PPG

I drafted Hopkins, Zuerlein (9.20 PPG) and Elliott. 1.4 PPG from perfect. yay me.