Puppies
Footballguy
Monday night cut line movement... by the numbers
Through the first 4 weeks of the season, we have had two weeks with a single Monday night game, and two weeks with two Monday night games. During those six games, the cut line has moved an average of 5.86 points per game, with the highest movement being 7.60 points in week 1 and the lowest being 4.05 points in week 4. With the cut line currently sitting at 130.00, using these numbers I would expect the cut line to move between 4.05 and 7.6 points tonight. That puts the range at 134.05 to 137.60, and applying the average movement, the cut line would move just 5.69 points to 135.69.
To get a larger sample, you could go back and include each single Sunday night game the first 5 weeks. Doing that would produce the same high and low, so the "range" would be the same, but the average movement would be 1.21 points higher than with the smaller sample. So, using the larger data set of 11 total games, the cut line could be expected to move 6.90 points to 136.90.
My situation is not good, and I expect to be eliminated this week. I currently sit 2.95 points above the current cut line at 132.95, and my remaining chance to stay alive is Luke Musgrave -6.6 points. To have a good shot to adavnce, I estimate that Musgrave needs to score a minimum of 10.60, which would add 4 points to my score and bring my total to 136.95, which is 0.05 above the projected cut line estimate of 136.90.
Luke Musgrave has scored an average of just 7.625 points per game through the first 4 weeks. So I expect to be saying adios at this time tomorrow morning. But even if I manage to advance, I am without Nick Chubb and I have Pickett, Pickens, and Musgrave on bye next week. So I'm probably gone either way.
Good luck going forward, to all who survived week 5. I noted that virtually all the scores of the people who post in this forum that I have been tracking, have been very high this week with only myself and 5 others on the bubble out of 32 teams. Most of the people in this group are far above the projected cut for week 5. I may or may not continue to track this stuff going forward, depending on whether or not anyone seems to be interested in seeing it continue.
Through the first 4 weeks of the season, we have had two weeks with a single Monday night game, and two weeks with two Monday night games. During those six games, the cut line has moved an average of 5.86 points per game, with the highest movement being 7.60 points in week 1 and the lowest being 4.05 points in week 4. With the cut line currently sitting at 130.00, using these numbers I would expect the cut line to move between 4.05 and 7.6 points tonight. That puts the range at 134.05 to 137.60, and applying the average movement, the cut line would move just 5.69 points to 135.69.
To get a larger sample, you could go back and include each single Sunday night game the first 5 weeks. Doing that would produce the same high and low, so the "range" would be the same, but the average movement would be 1.21 points higher than with the smaller sample. So, using the larger data set of 11 total games, the cut line could be expected to move 6.90 points to 136.90.
My situation is not good, and I expect to be eliminated this week. I currently sit 2.95 points above the current cut line at 132.95, and my remaining chance to stay alive is Luke Musgrave -6.6 points. To have a good shot to adavnce, I estimate that Musgrave needs to score a minimum of 10.60, which would add 4 points to my score and bring my total to 136.95, which is 0.05 above the projected cut line estimate of 136.90.
Luke Musgrave has scored an average of just 7.625 points per game through the first 4 weeks. So I expect to be saying adios at this time tomorrow morning. But even if I manage to advance, I am without Nick Chubb and I have Pickett, Pickens, and Musgrave on bye next week. So I'm probably gone either way.
Good luck going forward, to all who survived week 5. I noted that virtually all the scores of the people who post in this forum that I have been tracking, have been very high this week with only myself and 5 others on the bubble out of 32 teams. Most of the people in this group are far above the projected cut for week 5. I may or may not continue to track this stuff going forward, depending on whether or not anyone seems to be interested in seeing it continue.
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He got 2 receptions on that final drive, giving him 6 receptions for 34 yards, for 12.40 points. 
CRAZY.
the 
pic. My rooster is just skating by. Will help if I can get Metcalf and Dionte Johnson going together after Week 7, but my RBs have a lot of misses that are getting harder to overcome:
