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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

I will gladly take 9 at halftime for Santos
How bout 12.9? :excited:

13.9 from Santos - greedy to have wanted more after 9 in the first half but a nice solid number nonetheless - really was rooting for the Panthers to make that tying field goal to hopefully give Santos another chance. But with 1 kicker on bye I'll surely take it :) Of course still would be nice if Hopkins can beat that number...

-QG
13.9 is a great score. At this point, I want one of Dustin Hopkins or Anders Carlson to score 15+, or not at all (as long as they don't miss or get injured).
 
After the Thursday night tussle, here is how I have the cut-lion stalking around 129.58 for this week. The surviving members of the elite 100 club are projected as follows.

QuizGuy66​
150.28​
fear the bald​
150.22​
ShaunZ​
144.56​
Entry 106765​
143.39​
Entry 100158​
143.07​
ZWK​
141.62​
Troll​
141.45​
Entry 109712​
140.4​
TrishaRitasBoys​
139.6​
P U P P I E S​
139.34​
FlyEagle​
138.95​
CosmoKramer​
136.76​
TheWinz​
136.26​
HULK​
134.7​
The Mongol Horde​
133.06​
Kruegs​
132.75​
ThisSpaceForRent​
131.41​
Flyjetz​
130.77​
Deamon​
128.15​
 
After the Thursday night tussle, here is how I have the cut-lion stalking around 129.58 for this week. The surviving members of the elite 100 club are projected as follows.

QuizGuy66​
150.28​
fear the bald​
150.22​
ShaunZ​
144.56​
Entry 106765​
143.39​
Entry 100158​
143.07​
ZWK​
141.62​
Troll​
141.45​
Entry 109712​
140.4​
TrishaRitasBoys​
139.6​
P U P P I E S​
139.34​
FlyEagle​
138.95​
CosmoKramer​
136.76​
TheWinz​
136.26​
HULK​
134.7​
The Mongol Horde​
133.06​
Kruegs​
132.75​
ThisSpaceForRent​
131.41​
Flyjetz​
130.77​
Deamon​
128.15​

Pre-game I had cut lion hanging out in the mid-126s, however that's using FBG's average projections, and in best ball format would expect that number to increase as actual scores come in (unless there's across-the-board underperformance).

Count me amongst those who are happy with George Santos putting up a solid K score with Fairbairn out and my other K Carlson only having exceeded 8.4 once so far this season. My team was projected at 138.8 so the extra 6.8 above projection provides a bit more buffer heading into Sunday.
 
Last edited:
After the Thursday night tussle, here is how I have the cut-lion stalking around 129.58 for this week. The surviving members of the elite 100 club are projected as follows.

QuizGuy66​
150.28​
fear the bald​
150.22​
ShaunZ​
144.56​
Entry 106765​
143.39​
Entry 100158​
143.07​
ZWK​
141.62​
Troll​
141.45​
Entry 109712​
140.4​
TrishaRitasBoys​
139.6​
P U P P I E S​
139.34​
FlyEagle​
138.95​
CosmoKramer​
136.76​
TheWinz​
136.26​
HULK​
134.7​
The Mongol Horde​
133.06​
Kruegs​
132.75​
ThisSpaceForRent​
131.41​
Flyjetz​
130.77​
Deamon​
128.15​
FWIW, FBG projections have me at 123.72. I'm playing up the "no respect" card in my pre-game pep talk.
 
Here is the breakdown of the impact of Thursday night football. For other people using FBG projections, I would be curious how mine compare to yours. I would like to know what the closest projection settings are to this league.

Player​
Actual Score​
Projected Score​
Difference​
Ownership​
Cairo Santos​
13.9​
6.79​
7.11​
147​
D'Onta Foreman​
16.2​
11.45​
4.75​
18​
Eddy Piñeiro​
8.2​
6.24​
1.96​
9​
Roschon Johnson​
5.2​
3.67​
1.53​
97​
Hayden Hurst​
4.4​
4.9​
-0.5​
37​
Terrace Marshall Jr​
2.1​
2.65​
-0.55​
4​
Cole Kmet​
12.1​
13.1​
-1​
81​
Carolina Panthers​
6​
8.84​
-2.84​
82​
DJ Moore​
10.9​
14.1​
-3.2​
132​
Jonathan Mingo​
5​
8.68​
-3.68​
65​
Miles Sanders​
2​
6.08​
-4.08​
25​
Darnell Mooney​
3.4​
7.49​
-4.09​
19​
Chuba Hubbard​
4.9​
9.72​
-4.82​
12​
Chicago Bears​
3​
9.67​
-6.67​
100​
Bryce Young​
11.05​
17.93​
-6.88​
53​
Adam Thielen​
10.2​
17.97​
-7.77​
130​
 
My projections (with actual Thursday results) have the cutline at 124. 6. They have me at 133.1, which sounds close but projections are always compressed and actual results will be much more spread out. For instance, the projections have the max score in the 160s when it will certainly top 200. The projections have me in 569th place, which is in the top 40%, so I'm feeling cautiously optimistic.
 
Just ran it again with FBG consensus projections and actual Thursday results. The cutline works out to 126.25. I'm in 572nd place at 135.2.
 
Here is the breakdown of the impact of Thursday night football. For other people using FBG projections, I would be curious how mine compare to yours. I would like to know what the closest projection settings are to this league.

Player​
Actual Score​
Your FBG Projected Score​
My FBG Projected Score​
Difference​
Cairo Santos​
13.9​
6.79​
7.08​
0.29​
D'Onta Foreman​
16.2​
11.45​
11.35​
-0.10​
Eddy Piñeiro​
8.2​
6.24​
6.51​
0.27​
Roschon Johnson​
5.2​
3.67​
3.64​
-0.03​
Hayden Hurst​
4.4​
4.9​
4.89​
-0.01​
Terrace Marshall Jr​
2.1​
2.65​
2.72​
0.07​
Cole Kmet​
12.1​
13.1​
13.11​
0.01​
Carolina Panthers​
6​
8.84​
7.63​
-1.21​
DJ Moore​
10.9​
14.1​
14.09​
-0.01​
Jonathan Mingo​
5​
8.68​
8.66​
-0.02​
Miles Sanders​
2​
6.08​
6.07​
-0.01​
Darnell Mooney​
3.4​
7.49​
7.44​
-0.05​
Chuba Hubbard​
4.9​
9.72​
9.66​
-0.06​
Chicago Bears​
3​
9.67​
7.94​
-1.73​
Bryce Young​
11.05​
17.93​
18.96​
1.03​
Adam Thielen​
10.2​
17.97​
17.97​
0.00​

Inserted mine above. Given the number of sub-one-tenth deltas at RB/WR/TE, I'm guessing we are using the same settings but just recorded the values from the FBG site at different points in time? But my D scores are both over a point below yours, my K scores are also slightly higher, and only one QB to compare where mine is a full point above yours... so that could mean we have a difference in settings for those positions. I set up my custom "Subscriber" league settings on their site a couple years back and haven't touched it since, but I also don't think there have been any changes in the scoring system since then either. Just to be clear, I'm pulling mine from the https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/duration/weekly page.
 
I don't know how I'm still surviving. I've lost my most expensive QB and RB for the season, most expensive TE is out injured for awhile, and my most expensive WR was on bye last week... And I still scored a ton.

Better to be lucky than good I guess.
 
I don't know how I'm still surviving. I've lost my most expensive QB and RB for the season, most expensive TE is out injured for awhile, and my most expensive WR was on bye last week... And I still scored a ton.

Better to be lucky than good I guess.
I’d say you’ve been better good than lucky
 
After 9 weeks, how well have the masses done picking QB's? Here they are, in order of commonality from the start:

2383 - Howell ($8) - There were 27 QB's more expensive, yet he is currently QB10 with 24.5 PPG - the masses hit a home run with this pick
1848 - Pickett ($10) - His 14.3 PPG wouldn't even rank him in the top 20 WR's, let alone QB's - a massive bust that nearly 20% chose
1698 - Love ($9) - Gave owners hope with a great start thru 3 games (29 PPG), but has averaged over 10 points less during the next 5
1327 - Tagovailoa ($14) - Everyone knew the price was right, but only the fearless rostered him - they're reaping the rewards with 26.8 PPG (QB5)
1318 - Goff ($14) - The way the Lions are playing, you would assume Jared would be higher than QB14 - not good, not bad, average for his price
1310 - Rodgers ($14) - We'll never know what could have been, or will we? Wouldn't it be amazing for him to return for the finals in week 15?
1255 - Richardson ($15) - Fun watching him early on, but cut down by injury. Fun fact - if you had rostered Minshew too, they combine for QB11
1206 - Lawrence ($19) - 9 passing TD's in 8 games doesn't cut it for the 8th most expensive contest QB. Sad fact - Mac Jones has more TD's
1193 - Carr ($11) - Weeks 1-4 were a disaster, but hasn't had a game under 20 since. Only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts can say the same
1091 - Herbert ($21) - He's been fine at 25.5 PPG (QB7), but not quite electric. I only rostered Herbert & Howell, and have used Howell more
960 - Fields ($20) - 2 monster games in weeks 4 & 5, but very little offered in the other 4 weeks he played. 82 owners want him back ASAP
917 - Hurts ($25) - Most common of the trio of top dogs, he trails only Josh Allen with 30.3 PPG. Only Mostert & CMC have more rushing TD's
867 - Jackson ($22) - All other QB's with 9 games played have more passing TD's - this contest is 6 points per, so he sits at QB9 with 24.7 PPG
852 - Mahomes ($25) - Passing-wise, he is very similar to Allen/Hurts, but he can't keep pace with no rushing TD's - 26.9 PPG ranks him QB4
774 - Purdy ($12) - 23.9 PPG ties him with Dak for QB12 - 11th in passing yards, despite playing in only 8 games and being 27th in attempts
761 - Jones (Daniel) ($16) - I actually feel sorry for him, and I hate the Giants. Look at the bright side - in week 2, he averaged 38.95 PPG
714 - Smith ($16) - Remember 2022 when Geno was QB5? Under 225 passing YPG won't cut it for a guy with 53 rushing yards and no TD's
596 - Cousins ($17) - How many knew he was averaging 27.8 PPG when he went down? And the last 3 games were without his all-world WR!
562 - Burrow ($21) - Calf injury moved him down the commonality list, but he's coming back - 46.7 pts in his first 4 games; 120.45 in his last 4
438 - Ridder ($7) - Exactly what you'd expect from a $7 QB - 4 games over 20 pts, 4 games under 15 pts, and then he loses his job to a $4 QB
400 - Allen ($25) - I fully believe his low commonality compared to Hurts & Mahomes is due to his later bye - He is the contest QB1 at 31.1 PPG
396 - Prescott ($16) - 6 TD passes through the first 6 games was pitiful - 7 TD's and 678 passing yards in 2 games since their bye is fantastic
338 - Wilson ($13) - In this contest he is quietly QB11 with 24.1 PPG - he has 1 less passing TD than Mahomes, but with 101 less attempts
333 - Mayfield ($7) - 2 complete dud games, 5 games over 20, and week 4 with 32. I think he is playing well enough to keep his job this year
320 - Young ($9) - Panthers forgot to put talent around their prized possession, and it's showing. He's playing like a rookie, for God sakes!
280 - Garoppolo ($9) - If you're feeling bad for choosing Bryce, just look here. Jimmy got benched after 6 games, and still leads the NFL in INT's
277 - Stafford ($10) - His best game of 23.1 is lower than the average game of 14 other QB's - perhaps his bad back is catching up to him?
253 - Tannehill ($8) - 2 TD's and 6 INT's thru first 6 games - put up only 1 useful week before injury/benching - he ain't getting his job back
241 - Watson ($18) - A 5.81% survival rate will happen when you are priced as a top 10 QB and miss half the games, and suck the other half
237 - Jones (Mac) ($8) - Scored 34.3 points in week 1. Other than that, he has 1 20-pt game, 4 in the teens, and 3 in single digits - he bad
143 - Stroud ($9) - 25 geniuses remain (or is it genii) with QB6, who's averaging 26.4 PPG - just think... twice as many people chose Jimmy G
76 - White ($4) - Let's face it - anyone who chose this guy was/is rooting for a major Tua concussion. Has has shown up in the stat log twice
39 - Mariota ($3) - 3 of the 7 remaining owners also have Hurts; I'm sure they hope they never use him - the other 4 have Hurts voodoo dolls
27 - Stidham ($3) - Almost played in the Dolphins blowout game, but didn't - Fun fact - FBG lists his career completion percentage as 163.9%
24 - Levis ($3) - Every year a few cheapie QB's get a shot, and Will got his. Act 1 was way better than Act 2 - Tannehill is now the understudy
22 - Murray ($15) - Set to make his debut this week for 2 folks - one has only Mayfield and the other has only Allen, so both are ecstatic
19 - Brissett ($5) - Young Sam Howell has held off the 30-yr old journeyman - only 3 owners remain, 1 of which is rostering Howell
16 - Heinicke ($4) - Took over in week 8, and looked decent enough to retain the job, but wouldn't be surprised to see Ridder again
16 - Minshew ($6) - Normally cheap rare QB's have decent survival rates, but not Gardner - only 1 remains (6.25%), and he also has ARich
14 - Darnold ($7) - His last owner bit the dust in week 9
12 - Zappe ($3) - His last owner also bit the dust in week 9
9 - Lance ($7) - 1 team remains, with a tandem of Carr & Love
8 - Trask ($5) - Baker kept his job and Kyle went extinct
2 - Wentz ($6) - Well, you may see the field, but not for any owner in this contest
0 - McCoy ($6) - Extinct from the start
 
1318 - Goff ($14) - The way the Lions are playing, you would assume Jared would be higher than QB14 - not good, not bad, average for his price
Goff's ceiling is limited by (a) Montgomery when healthy, and (b) away games - his home/away splits are pretty significant.

Prior to getting injured Montgomery was grabbing a huge share of the Lions fantasy output...I'll be curious to see what becomes of the Montgomery / Gibbs split going forward...
 
So who's your team's MVP so far?

For me. let's see. Tyreek Hill has been everything I could have hoped, scoring for me all but once with some monsters mixed in, but he also cost a lot.
Sam Howell has scored 6 times for me, also with some monsters, and only set me back $8.
Dustin Hopkins has been crazy good for the minimum $3.

But then I was thinking, has there been a case where a single player missing his game for whatever reason eliminates me? And it turns out the answer is yes. It's happened once, it was this past week, and the player was Jake Ferguson. Without his 25.6, I have to eat Kenneth Walker's 2.2 and I miss the cut.

There's only one other time where it's been close: I still would have survived if the player missed his game, but by less than 10 points. That happened in week 4 and the player was...Jake Ferguson.

Is Ferguson my MVP then? Maybe. He's only scored for me 3 times, but he's there when I need him.

MVP candidates by position:
  • QB Herbert - My only QB, so I've needed him to stay healthy and perform, which he has (except last week's dud)... but would have been eliminated twice without him. Put another way, that means that 7 of 9 weeks so far I would have survived with a 0 at QB (except for 2 and 6).
  • RB McCaffrey - Stayed healthy and performed... 6 out of 8 weeks has scored over 20, but there isn't a week that I wouldn't have survived without him.
  • WR Hill and Nacua - Hill great performances, and both he and Herbert saved my team in week 6. Nacua has been a great value but there isn't a week that I wouldn't have survived without him (week 2 would have been close though).
  • TE Ferguson - Solid scores for the money and in particular saved me in week 9.
  • K - Nobody yet.
  • D - Nobody yet.
I think in this contest the MVP has to go to someone who you would have been dead without... otherwise they're helping you put up good scores to feel good, but not the difference-makers. The game is about surviving, not posting high scores.

So I'll go with Herbert, because despite his week 9 dud I would have been eaten by the cut lion twice without him. Of course, that's by design, putting him in a position where he HAS to count towards my total every week, but that's a lot on his shoulders and he has carried it well. And he's done this despite injuries to Mike Williams (season) and Ekeler (a few weeks early on). With his off-hand finger fracture nearly healed, and Ekeler getting back into form, I'm also optimistic that there's a chance he can elevate his fantasy game the rest of the way as well.

So congrats to Justin Herbert on my mid-season MVP award, with Hill and Ferguson alongside him on the podium.
 
This is the end of the road for my team.
Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek and Jefferson.
Bye bye.
I think the player you're really going to miss is Graham Gano :wink:
We need to move to team kicker for this contest. The NFFC does it right they use team kicker not individual names. The rate of which kicker gets injured has sky rocketed lately and with no waiver moves this contest should move to team kicker.
 
This is the end of the road for my team.
Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek and Jefferson.
Bye bye.
I think the player you're really going to miss is Graham Gano :wink:
We need to move to team kicker for this contest. The NFFC does it right they use team kicker not individual names. The rate of which kicker gets injured has sky rocketed lately and with no waiver moves this contest should move to team kicker.
I disagree. Of the 34 kickers offered, 6 weren't even starters when the season "kicked off". That left 28 kickers to pick from. Of those 28...
Brett Maher - didn't lose his job because of injury; he lost it because of suckage
Greg Zuerlein - missed only week 2
Graham Gano - missed only week 9 (so far)
Kaimi Fairbairn - this week will be his first missed

So, as of right now, only 2 out of 238 games have been missed by kicker injury. I don't think I overlooked anyone, did I?
 
This is the end of the road for my team.
Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek and Jefferson.
Bye bye.
I think the player you're really going to miss is Graham Gano :wink:
We need to move to team kicker for this contest. The NFFC does it right they use team kicker not individual names. The rate of which kicker gets injured has sky rocketed lately and with no waiver moves this contest should move to team kicker.

as one of the (eliminated) Nick Chubb drafters, what is the idea with kicker getting that treatment and not, say, RB?
 
This is the end of the road for my team.
Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek and Jefferson.
Bye bye.
I think the player you're really going to miss is Graham Gano :wink:
We need to move to team kicker for this contest. The NFFC does it right they use team kicker not individual names. The rate of which kicker gets injured has sky rocketed lately and with no waiver moves this contest should move to team kicker.
Kicker is essentially just a random element in fantasy. Going to team kicker just reduces the randomness. I'd prefer just getting rid of kickers entirely.
 
Olave, Dell, E. Moore and Pickens putting up modest numbers from the WRs for me today. Hope St. Brown is a home-run hitter later. Need the rest of my team to Pickett up, because this QB was a horrible bye week fill-in choice.
 
I'm really curious what the cut line will be after the 1pm games.

I'm not scoring many points and I don't have many decent players in the remaining games.

I'm sitting on only 85.5 with a few minutes left in the 1pm games...
 
I'm only at 88.4 but fortunately I'll get all of QB Herbert, all of RB Ekeler, and then the best one of WR Dotson, WR M Wilson, or TE H Ferguson.

And of course still chances for a few more points as 1p games wind up.
 
Moore and Mixon giving me some late points in the early games pushing me over 100. Feeling better. Walker, St. Brown, Ferguson and 2 defenses left.
 
I'm really curious what the cut line will be after the 1pm games.
At this point, I'm going <80.

Actually going to guess we don't get one since two games are going late.
Amused by the Zack Moss 0.20 cut lion after the early game.

Last week when they posted a cut line after the early game in Germany, they did NOT post another cut line until after the end of the 4pm games. I hope I don't have to wait that long in suspense today... :frown:
 
Quizzomatic mobile is a little less accurate but it has me at (roughly)

126.95 + (K Walker III - 0.5) + (Mi Wilson/Dotson - 4.00/9.40/12.10) + (Kincaid - 4.00/9.40) + (Lions/Chargers - 0.00)

-QG
 
I’m about 80 with a couple 0s and a 4 which can be filled by Metcalf, Gabe Davis, Jake Ferguson. Can get a little more at K and D. And have Josh Allen -26. So I would guess I’ll be 125ish and probably close to a final cut line. Will be a sweat. Good luck those that are in it still.
 
I was doing it manually and got 65.45 just before they posted the update. Made a few mistakes on individual players here and there to account for the delta. Ja'Marr Chase playing (and scoring) today was huge. I'm over 140 midway through the late games so I'm feeling safe for the week, which is my last week where I was really concerned about byes. If everyone can just stay healthy I like my odds to make it through week 14 now.

https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108629/week/10 was sitting on the 0.20 cut lion after the Germany game... and remained there with 0 points scored in all of the 1p games combined.
 
SNF ownership - not expecting large movement by cut lion unless Wilson goes off
252 Garrett Wilson
200 Greg Zuerlein
153 New York Jets
120 Aaron Rodgers
96 Tyler Conklin
58 Dalvin Cook
55 Randall Cobb
54 Josh Jacobs
45 Michael Mayer
41 Jimmy Garoppolo
38 Hunter Renfrow
30 Daniel Carlson
30 Las Vegas Raiders
23 Allen Lazard
21 Jakobi Meyers
14 Davante Adams
13 Breece Hall
11 Zamir White
10 Austin Hooper
6 Ameer Abdullah
4 Israel Abanikanda
2 Michael Carter

MNF ownership - definitely more chance for line movement
430 Dalton Kincaid
377 James Cook
223 Courtland Sutton
193 Marvin Mims Jr.
166 Gabe Davis
153 Wil Lutz
111 Denver Broncos
109 Josh Allen
79 Stefon Diggs
72 Javonte Williams
36 Russell Wilson
33 Tyler Bass
24 Samaje Perine
24 Khalil Shakir
24 Buffalo Bills
19 Greg Dulcich
17 Dawson Knox
13 Leonard Fournette
10 Damien Harris
9 Nyheim Hines
4 Jerry Jeudy
2 Jarrett Stidham
1 Elliott Fry
 

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