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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter apalmer
- Start date
Puppies
Footballguy
Well, this may be the first time ever that I got ZERO points added to my score from 6 players in the 4pm games. Dicker's 9.8 was not enough to count, and the next highest scorer (Michael Wilson) got a paltry 6.4, which was not enough to replace my lowest flex at 7.2.
I'm sitting on only 106.60 with only James Cook -7.2 and Dalton Kincaid -7.5 left to play.
I think I finally am cooked and likely booted out this week. I don't see the cut line staying low enough for me to advance, unless if maybe I get two monster scores from those last two players.
It's been fun...
I'm sitting on only 106.60 with only James Cook -7.2 and Dalton Kincaid -7.5 left to play.
I think I finally am cooked and likely booted out this week. I don't see the cut line staying low enough for me to advance, unless if maybe I get two monster scores from those last two players.
It's been fun...
Stray Doug
Footballguy
46% of remaining Tyreek Hill owners are currently below the cutline.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
jdkapow
Footballguy
Not me!
BroncosFan07
Footballguy
133.85 with Sutton and Mims left (-7.5, -10).
Wilson is the cut mover tonight so hoping he slows down. Sutton and Mims are 3rd and 4th highest owned tomorrow so that provides some defense. Need Kincaid and Cook to just have modest games at best.
Wilson is the cut mover tonight so hoping he slows down. Sutton and Mims are 3rd and 4th highest owned tomorrow so that provides some defense. Need Kincaid and Cook to just have modest games at best.
5-10.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
second time that I need Jakobi to save me from the Turk
Oh I love all these jets FGs tonight.
a_troll00
Footballguy
Ever since his bye week in week 7, CeeDee Lamb has been Weapon X in this contest.
In the last three weeks, Lamb has scored a minimum of 30 points.
Week 8: 41.0
Week 9: 30.1
Week 10: 39.5
He was originally only owned by 348 contestants. As of now, only 55 contestants have him. For a total survival rate of 15.8%
Give 'EM Hell, Lamb!!!
In the last three weeks, Lamb has scored a minimum of 30 points.
Week 8: 41.0
Week 9: 30.1
Week 10: 39.5
He was originally only owned by 348 contestants. As of now, only 55 contestants have him. For a total survival rate of 15.8%
Give 'EM Hell, Lamb!!!
bamabuddha
Footballguy
James cook and Kincaid left. 147.2 on boat]rd and if they both get 8 pts or more they help me so should head to week 11…
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
These Jets players keeping counting for my score despite not having a real offense. G Wilson, Conklin and Zuerlein all counted for me.
168 + Gabe Davis - 10. So 168.
Johan Dotson (0 receptions, 0 yards, 2 targets). Your Mom called; she said stop pretending to be an nfl receiver.
168 + Gabe Davis - 10. So 168.
Johan Dotson (0 receptions, 0 yards, 2 targets). Your Mom called; she said stop pretending to be an nfl receiver.
Puppies
Footballguy
Cut Line Movement per Game - For Sunday 8pm and Monday Night Games 2023
Games | Cut Line | Week | Game |
1 | 6.50 | Wk1 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 7.60 | Wk1 | Monday |
1 | 6.40 | Wk2 | 8pm Sunday |
2 | 12.00 | Wk2 | Monday x2 |
1 | 6.85 | Wk3 | 8pm Sunday |
2 | 10.05 | Wk3 | Monday x2 |
1 | 7.25 | Wk4 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 4.05 | Wk4 | Monday |
1 | 7.50 | Wk5 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 3.55 | Wk5 | Monday |
1 | 8.70 | Wk6 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 6.60 | Wk6 | Monday |
1 | 13.85 | Wk7 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 8.50 | Wk7 | Monday |
1 | 6.60 | Wk8 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 11.15 | Wk8 | Monday |
1 | 11.90 | Wk9 | 8pm Sunday |
1 | 9.90 | Wk9 | Monday |
1 | 7.20 | Wk10 | 8pm Sunday |
| XXXX | Wk10 | Monday |
21 total | 156.15 | ||
High | 13.85 | ||
Low | 3.55 | ||
Average | 7.44 |
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Sorry for not recalling where historical cutoffs are posted, but should we expect cutoffs to rise steadily weeks 11-14? Can someone share last year?
I’m gonna guess it will move 10-12 tonight which means I am in trouble. I’m only 3.2 over the cut with Gabe Davis -4.3 and Josh Allen -26.1. On the last page the player count was listed for tonight and also almost every team I randomly check below me has players left.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
IIRC back when the last cut was 50% for the last week you could see cuts in the like 170-180 range.
After this week we'll be down to just over 1000 entries so using 180th or 200th place as a guide for that final cut range is not unreasonable.
-QG
brewer
Footballguy
Going to need a big night from Kincaid to stay in this thing. His entire score will count and I am currently 6.2 behind the cut line.
Kenny Pickett as my only backup to Tua is going to be my downfall otherwise. But still happy to have lasted this long without Nick Chubb. Fellow Chubb owners still alive, go get em!
Kenny Pickett as my only backup to Tua is going to be my downfall otherwise. But still happy to have lasted this long without Nick Chubb. Fellow Chubb owners still alive, go get em!
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Shown below is % of living roosters currently slated to be eaten by the post-SNF cut lion (parentheses is total number who are below out of total number alive). Mahomes is doing ok.
- Notable Bye/Injured: Mahomes owners faring better than Hurts owners this week. Roosters seem to be feeling the pain at TE and WR especially.
- MNF: Anticipate Allen and Diggs to have most impact both because they tend to score at lot and are over-represented below the cut lion currently. Kincaid, Sutton, and Cook as well just due to larger ownership. 34 Josh Allen owners have him fully counting from 0, and 24 have him replacing a score of 12.15 or less, while the other 41 already have a QB score of 19.25 or more in the bank.
- Others: Currently 6 players on the brink of elimination from the contest, with several other players on the verge of getting down to only 1 Rooster remaining.
Notable "Bye or Injured"
67% Durham Smythe (4 of 6)
58% DeVonta Smith (26 of 45)
54% A.J. Brown (87 of 161)
52% Miami Dolphins (16 of 31)
52% Jalen Hurts (115 of 223)
50% Dallas Goedert (34 of 68)
50% Pat Freiermuth (9 of 18)
50% Tee Higgins (6 of 12)
50% Tyreek Hill (100 of 202)
48% Zach Ertz (11 of 23)
44% Jaylen Waddle (19 of 43)
43% Justin Jefferson (20 of 46)
43% Philadelphia Eagles (78 of 182)
43% Kansas City Chiefs (17 of 40)
42% Travis Kelce (33 of 78)
41% Tua Tagovailoa (97 of 234)
41% Matthew Stafford (11 of 27)
40% Justin Fields (33 of 82)
40% D'Andre Swift (32 of 80)
36% Isiah Pacheco (46 of 127)
35% Dameon Pierce (60 of 173)
33% Patrick Mahomes (35 of 105)
33% Nico Collins (68 of 209)
32% Raheem Mostert (147 of 454)
30% Darren Waller (171 of 565)
30% Khalil Herbert (97 of 322)
25% Ka'imi Fairbairn (29 of 118)
24% Puka Nacua (65 of 270)
MNF
59% Josh Allen (64 of 109)
57% Stefon Diggs (45 of 79)
50% Jerry Jeudy (2 of 4)
46% Khalil Shakir (11 of 24)
43% Javonte Williams (31 of 72)
41% Dawson Knox (7 of 17)
39% Russell Wilson (14 of 36)
38% Buffalo Bills (9 of 24)
37% Greg Dulcich (7 of 19)
37% Gabe Davis (61 of 166)
35% Courtland Sutton (77 of 223)
34% Dalton Kincaid (147 of 430)
33% Nyheim Hines (3 of 9)
30% Tyler Bass (10 of 33)
30% Wil Lutz (46 of 153)
30% Damien Harris (3 of 10)
29% James Cook (110 of 377)
26% Denver Broncos (29 of 111)
24% Marvin Mims Jr. (47 of 193)
17% Samaje Perine (4 of 24)
15% Leonard Fournette (2 of 13)
0% Elliott Fry (0 of 1)
0% Jarrett Stidham (0 of 2)
Others currently >50% this week
100% Russell Gage (2 of 2)
100% Pierre Strong Jr. (2 of 2)
100% Deneric Prince (1 of 1)
100% Gardner Minshew (1 of 1)
100% Trey Lance (1 of 1)
100% Robbie Gould (1 of 1)
80% Ronald Jones (4 of 5)
75% Marquise Brown (3 of 4)
75% Corey Clement (3 of 4)
67% Chuba Hubbard (8 of 12)
60% Matt Gay (12 of 20)
60% Austin Hooper (6 of 10)
60% Jauan Jennings (3 of 5)
59% Braxton Berrios (10 of 17)
57% Marcus Mariota (4 of 7)
56% Foster Moreau (5 of 9)
56% Eric Gray (5 of 9)
56% JuJu Smith-Schuster (5 of 9)
54% Wan'Dale Robinson (19 of 35)
50% Derrick Henry (10 of 20)
50% Deshaun Watson (7 of 14)
50% Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (3 of 6)
50% Ameer Abdullah (3 of 6)
50% Luke Schoonmaker (2 of 4)
50% Will Levis (2 of 4)
50% Michael Carter (1 of 2)
50% Kyler Murray (1 of 2)
50% Corey Davis (1 of 2)
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PIK95
Footballguy
Somehow I clawed back to three below the cut line with any James Cooks points working for me. COME ON JAMES!!!
I also have Josh Allen, but I doubt he builds off of my Sam Howell score.
I thought Denver was on a bye, so non exsist Mims could build off my Downs six points in theory. Hey, it's another out I guess.
I also have Josh Allen, but I doubt he builds off of my Sam Howell score.
I thought Denver was on a bye, so non exsist Mims could build off my Downs six points in theory. Hey, it's another out I guess.
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Puppies
Footballguy
Even that would probably not be enough, unfortunately.
If the cut line prediction from @jdkapow at 136.1 turns out to be accurate, Kincaid putting up 15/150/2 for 49.5 points, woud still leave you 8.4 points short. My situation is not much better. I'm at 106.6 with Cooke and Kincaid left, -7.2 and -7.5 to replace two flex scores.
If Kincaid put up his exact same line as last week (10/81/0), I would still need 21.2 from Cook to surpass the projected 136.1 cut line by a 1/10 of a point.
Bottom line is I probably need a total of 45 points from those two players combined, and that's not going to happen. It would take a miracle.
kylechoffman
Footballguy
I am 1 point above the cut line with Cook going. As long as he scores more than 4 points, his numbers will count but not sure if that bounces me out.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Dont think I"m following you...are you saying 1000 - 30% = 700 - 30% = 490 - 40% = 290 - 40% = 170 so the final cut can be guesstimated by looking at current ranking 170th score, i.e. ~170 points?
The same would hold true for each week, no? So the cutoffs might be something like 140/150/160/170? Excepting of course that this was a heavy bye week versus 4/0/2/0 teams on bye in the next 4 weeks...I suppose these guesses are good enough.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
PIK95
Footballguy
Pretty much same boat as me I think. Need Cook.
jdkapow
Footballguy
Here's your problem, though. If those guys put up epic numbers like that, the cutline will surely move even higher than I project.Even that would probably not be enough, unfortunately.
My situation is not much better. I'm at 106.6 with Cooke and Kincaid left, -7.2 and -7.5 to replace two flex scores.
If Kincaid put up his exact same line as last week (10/81/0), I would still need 21.2 from Cook to surpass the projected 136.1 cut line by a 1/10 of a point.
Bottom line is I probably need a total of 45 points from those two players combined, and that's not going to happen. It would take a miracle.
jdkapow
Footballguy
Be thankful fumbles don't count!
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Fixed your bye tallies for the coming weeks.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
I've got 125.8 as the end of Q1 cut lion... was a low scoring opener... did Cook get benched after his fumble? Didn't see an injury but Murray's been getting the carries since.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.
[update] 126.4 after the (incredible) Sutton TD catch. Cook out of the penalty box.
[update] 129.3 after the Kincaid TD catch.
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Balco
Footballguy
Benched it looks like. Murray looks like hot garbage so I think cook will be back in at some point but who knows, McDermott doesn’t seem like he wants to win tonight.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
130.2 at halftime
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Coulnd't overcome the lack of TEs this week.
Protagonist702
Footballguy
Thank you Sutton. At 141 now, this Chubb owner may survive yet another week…
