2024 FBG Subscriber Contest (8 Viewers)

[TheWinz]

Okay folks, we are about a month away from the contest opening. Thought I would start the thread and provide some useful links.

Previous year's contest threads. I could go back further if anyone wants, but figured 3 years would be fine.
2023 - https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/2023-fbg-subscriber-contest.808976/
2022 - https://forums.footballguys.com/thr...s-10k-5k-to-food-bank-of-their-choice.804787/
2021 - https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/2021-fbg-subscriber-contest.798569/

2023 contest querier - Shocked to see this link still works, but until it doesn't, here you go. 2024 link will be posted here when it becomes available.

Subscriber Contest Analyzer

Subscriber Contest Analyzer

www.footballguys.com

Courtesy of @ZWK here are player prices and ownership numbers going back to 2015. Thanx once again.

FBG Subscribers Contest Ownership, 2015-23

docs.google.com

2023 contest rules - For those who forget the scoring format, this one's for you. You can also find the yearly prize breakdown, contest deadlines, and other legal mumbo jumbo here. Just like the 2023 contest querier, I assume this link will morph into the 2024 rules when the contest opens. It's up to you to be aware of any rule/scoring changes from last year, but from memory, I think the scoring has remained the same for at least the last few seasons.

2024 Subscriber Contest Rules

2024 Subscriber Contest Rules

www.footballguys.com

Thanx to @Shaunz33 for this suggestion. Here is the link to a Subscriber Contest strategy article written before the opening of the 2022 contest. A few decent tips for those new to the contest.

Subscriber Contest Strategy

www.footballguys.com

Reply if you have ideas for other links to be posted on the front page, or if you just want to start some discussion. Game almost on!

 

[Grid71]

ready to rework lineup 11,000 times only to pay a visit to the Turk week 2
Let's Goooooo!!!

 

[joey]

Okay folks, we are about a month away from the contest opening. Thought I would start the thread and provide some useful links.

Previous year's contest threads. I could go back further if anyone wants, but figured 3 years would be fine.
2023 - https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/2023-fbg-subscriber-contest.808976/
2022 - https://forums.footballguys.com/thr...s-10k-5k-to-food-bank-of-their-choice.804787/
2021 - https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/2021-fbg-subscriber-contest.798569/

2023 contest querier - Shocked to see this link still works, but until it doesn't, here you go. 2024 link will be posted here when it becomes available.

Subscriber Contest Analyzer

Subscriber Contest Analyzer

www.footballguys.com

Courtesy of @ZWK here are player prices and ownership numbers going back to 2015. Thanx once again.

FBG Subscribers Contest Ownership, 2015-23

docs.google.com

2023 contest rules - For those who forget the scoring format, this one's for you. You can also find the yearly prize breakdown, contest deadlines, and other legal mumbo jumbo here. Just like the 2023 contest querier, I assume this link will morph into the 2024 rules when the contest opens. It's up to you to be aware of any rule/scoring changes from last year, but from memory, I think the scoring has remained the same for at least the last few seasons.

2024 Subscriber Contest Rules

2024 Subscriber Contest Rules

www.footballguys.com

Reply if you have ideas for other links to be posted on the front page, or if you just want to start some discussion. Game almost on!

You’re obsessed with this contest more than anyone…and we love you for it.
:sehorn:

 

[Scoresman]

Are there links still up to the last few years' standings?

 

[TheWinz]

Are there links still up to the last few years' standings?

Nope, only last year, and here it is...

Subscriber Contest Standings

Week 17 Standings

www.footballguys.com

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

heyyyyy milton....what's happening....

 

[(HULK)]

I've made the top 250 twice in like, I dunno, 15 years of this contest. Not sure what it takes to hit the top 10. I typically favor big rosters as my preferred strategy.

 

[TheWinz]

I've made the top 250 twice in like, I dunno, 15 years of this contest. Not sure what it takes to hit the top 10. I typically favor big rosters as my preferred strategy.

Let's look at last year's top 10 to see what they did...

1st place - 30 players, most expensive was $15 George Pickens, $31 never used (QB Kenny Pickett, RB Tank Bigsby, WR Skyy Moore), closest call was 11.5 in week 14
2nd place - 29 players, spent $59 on CMC/Gibbs tandem, only dead money was top QB ($14 Aaron Rodgers), closest call was 1.85 in week 14
3rd place - 27 players, only true stud was $34 CMC, also lost top QB Rodgers, used top WR only once ($17 Mike Williams), closest call was 1.35 in week 14
4th place - 22 players, stud-filled with Hurts, CMC, Lamb, Waller, $16 QB Daniel Jones was useless, closest call was 11.15 in week 11
5th place - 25 players, mid-stud type team (RB's Mixon, Conner, Kamara & WR's Olave, Diontae), no dead money, closest call was 12.85 in week 12
6th place - 25 players, used RB's CMC, Conner, Kamara 34 times, used 4 others totaling $36 only 8 times, closest call was 1.65 in week 14
7th place - 24 players, 4 mids each at both RB & WR ranging from $14-$25, no dead money but Charbonnet was kind of wasted, closest call was 1.1 in week 6
8th place - 23 players, closest call was 0.9 in week 14, any other QB besides Lamar would've been booted, but MVP's were Amon and LaPorta
9th place - 21 players, no QB or TE over $9, $175 spent on 8 RB's/WR's, carried thru finals by QB Love (Howell/Ridder useless), closest call was 8 in week 6
10th place - 25 players, no player over $19, 6 WR's ranging from $12-$18, and the only other WR was $3 Puka, closest call was 11.7 in week 6

I quickly noticed there were no teams with 18-20 players, but only 3 had over 25 (all of which spent double digits on a dead QB). Also, no team spent money on the top 6 priced TE's (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, Kittle, Pitts, Goedert). Also missing were stud QB's Allen & Mahomes and the top 5 priced WR's (JJ, Chase, Kupp, Tyreek, ands Diggs).

Getting back to the fact there were no 18-20 player teams in the top 10, I just wanted to add... they made up 69.4% of all submissions! Not a good year to go small I guess.

 

[Scoresman]

I've made the top 250 twice in like, I dunno, 15 years of this contest. Not sure what it takes to hit the top 10. I typically favor big rosters as my preferred strategy.

My guess is you're doing all that you can. At some point you need good luck to take you the rest of the way in this.

 

[Scoresman]

I can do this properly if someone can tell me how to query for every contest team. The analyzer tool only seems to spit out 100 teams max.

For 52 random teams out of all remaining teams in week 17, I was able to do a lookup on the team's rank and their number of players. To get all 182 teams, I'd need the query tool to give more results.

Anyway, for those 52 teams that made it to the end here is the breakdown.

Average final ranking by number of players. Obviously lower is better.

# players	Average Rank
18​	134​
19​	75​
20​	136​
21​	83​
22​	114​
23​	85​
24​	114​
25​	76​
26​	47​
27​	78​
28​	72​

 

[Scoresman]

Ok, I just noticed the roster breakdown spreadsheet does what I did above but for all teams. Nice.

 

[TheWinz]

If you were wondering roster size of the 182 teams that made it to the finals

18 - 37 out of 4360 teams = 0.85% survival rate
19 - 19 out of 1450 teams = 1.31% survival rate
20 - 14 out of 1121 teams = 1.25% survival rate
21 - 16 out of 829 teams = 1.93% survival rate
22 - 13 out of 649 teams = 2.00% survival rate
23 - 15 out of 474 teams = 3.16% survival rate
24 - 18 out of 361 teams = 4.99% survival rate
25 - 16 out of 241 teams = 6.64% survival rate
26 - 14 out of 175 teams = 8.00% survival rate
27 - 7 out of 96 teams = 7.29% survival rate
28 - 6 out of 81 teams = 7.41% survival rate
29 - 4 out of 67 teams = 5.97% survival rate
30 - 4 out of 90 teams = 4.44% survival rate

Overall survival rate was 1.83%. Looks like 26 player rosters was the sweet spot last year.
And if you're wondering why that adds up to 183 instead of 182, it's because we had 1 FBG staff member make the finals. Congrats to @Adam Harstad

 

[joey]

If you were wondering roster size of the 182 teams that made it to the finals

18 - 37 out of 4360 teams = 0.85% survival rate
19 - 19 out of 1450 teams = 1.31% survival rate
20 - 14 out of 1121 teams = 1.25% survival rate
21 - 16 out of 829 teams = 1.93% survival rate
22 - 13 out of 649 teams = 2.00% survival rate
23 - 15 out of 474 teams = 3.16% survival rate
24 - 18 out of 361 teams = 4.99% survival rate
25 - 16 out of 241 teams = 6.64% survival rate
26 - 14 out of 175 teams = 8.00% survival rate
27 - 7 out of 96 teams = 7.29% survival rate
28 - 6 out of 81 teams = 7.41% survival rate
29 - 4 out of 67 teams = 5.97% survival rate
30 - 4 out of 90 teams = 4.44% survival rate

Overall survival rate was 1.83%. Looks like 26 player rosters was the sweet spot last year.

With randomness and luck plus mathematical variability, I’d say 25 to 29 is the sweet spot to target.

I can’t recall but I think I was in the range where I did a top 12-ish RB, WR and TE, 2 bargains at QB, of course bargains at K and D (I mean, that’s been burned into our skull a few thousand times by now) and then a bunch of mid/lower guys to fill out RB, WR and TE. I’d guess I was at a 26 player level. Anyone have a link that can get you back to your 2023 contest roster?

 

[TheWinz]

If you were wondering roster size of the 182 teams that made it to the finals

18 - 37 out of 4360 teams = 0.85% survival rate
19 - 19 out of 1450 teams = 1.31% survival rate
20 - 14 out of 1121 teams = 1.25% survival rate
21 - 16 out of 829 teams = 1.93% survival rate
22 - 13 out of 649 teams = 2.00% survival rate
23 - 15 out of 474 teams = 3.16% survival rate
24 - 18 out of 361 teams = 4.99% survival rate
25 - 16 out of 241 teams = 6.64% survival rate
26 - 14 out of 175 teams = 8.00% survival rate
27 - 7 out of 96 teams = 7.29% survival rate
28 - 6 out of 81 teams = 7.41% survival rate
29 - 4 out of 67 teams = 5.97% survival rate
30 - 4 out of 90 teams = 4.44% survival rate

Overall survival rate was 1.83%. Looks like 26 player rosters was the sweet spot last year.

With randomness and luck plus mathematical variability, I’d say 25 to 29 is the sweet spot to target.

I can’t recall but I think I was in the range where I did a top 12-ish RB, WR and TE, 2 bargains at QB, of course bargains at K and D (I mean, that’s been burned into our skull a few thousand times by now) and then a bunch of mid/lower guys to fill out RB, WR and TE. I’d guess I was at a 26 player level. Anyone have a link that can get you back to your 2023 contest roster?

Here you are...

Subscriber Contest Roster

Contest Roster

www.footballguys.com

But this link is better, as you get to see your team each week, even after you were eliminated. Special thanx to @Army Eye for this link...

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107237

 

[joey]

If you were wondering roster size of the 182 teams that made it to the finals

18 - 37 out of 4360 teams = 0.85% survival rate
19 - 19 out of 1450 teams = 1.31% survival rate
20 - 14 out of 1121 teams = 1.25% survival rate
21 - 16 out of 829 teams = 1.93% survival rate
22 - 13 out of 649 teams = 2.00% survival rate
23 - 15 out of 474 teams = 3.16% survival rate
24 - 18 out of 361 teams = 4.99% survival rate
25 - 16 out of 241 teams = 6.64% survival rate
26 - 14 out of 175 teams = 8.00% survival rate
27 - 7 out of 96 teams = 7.29% survival rate
28 - 6 out of 81 teams = 7.41% survival rate
29 - 4 out of 67 teams = 5.97% survival rate
30 - 4 out of 90 teams = 4.44% survival rate

Overall survival rate was 1.83%. Looks like 26 player rosters was the sweet spot last year.

With randomness and luck plus mathematical variability, I’d say 25 to 29 is the sweet spot to target.

I can’t recall but I think I was in the range where I did a top 12-ish RB, WR and TE, 2 bargains at QB, of course bargains at K and D (I mean, that’s been burned into our skull a few thousand times by now) and then a bunch of mid/lower guys to fill out RB, WR and TE. I’d guess I was at a 26 player level. Anyone have a link that can get you back to your 2023 contest roster?

Here you are...

Subscriber Contest Roster

Contest Roster

www.footballguys.com

But this link is better, as you get to see your team each week, even after you were eliminated. Special thanx to @Army Eye for this link...

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107237

Wow. Only 21 players. I severely misremembered my roster construction. I am going with a minimum of 25 players this year for sure!

(Someone remind me )

 

[ZWK]

If you were wondering roster size of the 182 teams that made it to the finals

18 - 37 out of 4360 teams = 0.85% survival rate
19 - 19 out of 1450 teams = 1.31% survival rate
20 - 14 out of 1121 teams = 1.25% survival rate
21 - 16 out of 829 teams = 1.93% survival rate
22 - 13 out of 649 teams = 2.00% survival rate
23 - 15 out of 474 teams = 3.16% survival rate
24 - 18 out of 361 teams = 4.99% survival rate
25 - 16 out of 241 teams = 6.64% survival rate
26 - 14 out of 175 teams = 8.00% survival rate
27 - 7 out of 96 teams = 7.29% survival rate
28 - 6 out of 81 teams = 7.41% survival rate
29 - 4 out of 67 teams = 5.97% survival rate
30 - 4 out of 90 teams = 4.44% survival rate

Overall survival rate was 1.83%. Looks like 26 player rosters was the sweet spot last year.
And if you're wondering why that adds up to 183 instead of 182, it's because we had 1 FBG staff member make the finals. Congrats to @Adam Harstad

My spreadsheet has a tab with those numbers for most of the past 8 seasons.

 

[Scoresman]

Here's a random question. If you were to come up with VBD rankings for the contest (to compare to the actual player prices), what baselines would you use? Usually to come up with your baseline player, you choose something like "worst starter" which is based partly on the number of teams in your league. That obviously wont work here.

 

[Titans_fan]

But this link is better, as you get to see your team each week, even after you were eliminated. Special thanx to @Army Eye for this link...

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107237

I can't get this to generate info for any team other than the one linked. Suggestions?

 

[TheWinz]

But this link is better, as you get to see your team each week, even after you were eliminated. Special thanx to @Army Eye for this link...

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107237

I can't get this to generate info for any team other than the one linked. Suggestions?

Yeah, that link was just for @joey team. Here is a link for all teams, but you have to know your 6 digit team number from last year. If you don't remember it, let me know.

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/

 

[scottybo]

 

[TheWinz]

But this link is better, as you get to see your team each week, even after you were eliminated. Special thanx to @Army Eye for this link...

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107237

I can't get this to generate info for any team other than the one linked. Suggestions?

Does this roster ring a bell?

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107452

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just want you all to know that I’ve learned my lesson from last year, and my plan is to do the exact opposite.

I’m practically guaranteed to win.

 

[TheWinz]

I just want you all to know that I’ve learned my lesson from last year, and my plan is to do the exact opposite.

I’m practically guaranteed to win.

My roster is nearly complete. I'm just waiting for the pricing now.

 

[QuizGuy66]

-QG

 

[bryhamm]

I just want you all to know that I’ve learned my lesson from last year, and my plan is to do the exact opposite.

I’m practically guaranteed to win.

Steps:
1. Complete your team how you've done in the past.
2. Now, players from step 1 become the players to avoid.
3. Clear our your selections and pick all new players.
4. Profit.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just want you all to know that I’ve learned my lesson from last year, and my plan is to do the exact opposite.

I’m practically guaranteed to win.

Steps:
1. Complete your team how you've done in the past.
2. Now, players from step 1 become the players to avoid.
3. Clear our your selections and pick all new players.
4. Profit.

Basically this.

Wait, who told you my secret plan?!


Thankfully you missed the 17 other steps where I do this 16 more times.

 

[Titans_fan]

But this link is better, as you get to see your team each week, even after you were eliminated. Special thanx to @Army Eye for this link...

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107237

I can't get this to generate info for any team other than the one linked. Suggestions?

Does this roster ring a bell?

https://tensionmask.com/fbgcontest/team/107452

I swear I tried changing the last 6 numbers and it didn't work, but yes. Reading those names just makes me cringe today! LOL

 

[Dacomish]

I just want you all to know that I’ve learned my lesson from last year, and my plan is to do the exact opposite.

I’m practically guaranteed to win.

Steps:
1. Complete your team how you've done in the past.
2. Now, players from step 1 become the players to avoid.
3. Clear our your selections and pick all new players.
4. Profit.

Basically this.

Wait, who told you my secret plan?!


Thankfully you missed the 17 other steps where I do this 16 more times.

Only 16 times? Those are rookie numbers in this racket....lol!

 

[Scoresman]

Gonna try and use excel solver to come up with optimal lineups. There's a ton of constraints though so it may be more than excel can handle.

- pick between 18 and 30 total players
- pick between X and Y number of players at each position
- avoid X number of same bye weeks, and X number of same bye weeks at each position.
- stay within $250 cap

Plug in my projections and have it spit out the optimal team.

I dont do weekly projections though so it will be lacking a bit there. If I did, you could add constraints to meet minimum weekly point totals.

After doing all this, I plan to revise the team 20+ times based on gut and settle on something completely different.

 

[TheWinz]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just want you all to know that I’ve learned my lesson from last year, and my plan is to do the exact opposite.

I’m practically guaranteed to win.

Steps:
1. Complete your team how you've done in the past.
2. Now, players from step 1 become the players to avoid.
3. Clear our your selections and pick all new players.
4. Profit.

Basically this.

Wait, who told you my secret plan?!


Thankfully you missed the 17 other steps where I do this 16 more times.

Only 16 times? Those are rookie numbers in this racket....lol!

That’s the 1st day.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I would take the K/D position of course

Naturally.

 

[joey]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

I know you’re joking but…one of the beauties of this contest is the CROSS position choices we have to make because of the budget constraints. Ooh, I really want WR37 on the list but I need to free up $X, I’ll find it at RB by turning RB13 into RB25 and RB31….etc.

Man, I’m ready to go RIGHT NOW!
Damn, I wish I ponied up for the Super Platinum Velociraptor Subscription this year so I could start setting my lineups now.

 

[Grid71]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

you certainly hold the K/D crown and scepter
you'd need to work across teams for positional salary, bye management and balance upside with raising the floor. it'll be tough with each in their own silo, but i like the approach. pool some experts and ask them for some edits to create a super team. wish i could claim to be an expert, but definitely not that good.


my college try with a group of regulars, spend time working on our own roosters then meet up a week before the deadline. each person submit their top value 4Q, 8R, 10W, 5T and defer D/ST to you. work out a target cap by position and bye week. pencil in players with the most overlap. shrink the list to our favorite players then start adding by consensus.

 

[Dacomish]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

@TheWinz I am willing to make my entry the test subject for this if you didn't want to use your own...Just need to know who besides you (and your K/D) entries would be, it would take a bit of coordination to be able to get the math to stay in cap to work, but I'm willing to work with everyone.

@Contest Turk or @Joe Bryant - this wouldn't affect any of the legal issues if its my entry would it? I would still be submitting my entry, it would just be a consensus of 5 other posters.

 

[TheWinz]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

@TheWinz I am willing to make my entry the test subject for this if you didn't want to use your own...Just need to know who besides you (and your K/D) entries would be, it would take a bit of coordination to be able to get the math to stay in cap to work, but I'm willing to work with everyone.

@Contest Turk or @Joe Bryant - this wouldn't affect any of the legal issues if its my entry would it? I would still be submitting my entry, it would just be a consensus of 5 other posters.

If you really wouldn't mind using your entry, I see no reason why the FBG would care. You'd still be just submitting your 1 entry. As for who to invite to participate, I do have a suggestion - you could make a post in here asking for volunteers. Make a deadline for volunteers, like 2 weeks from now. Then you can create a group conversation where only the volunteers are, and they can chat amongst themselves all they want. As @Grid71 and @joey have already said, you really have to have all "experts" chatting at the same time, because even though each position is it's own, they all have to kind of merge together.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

@TheWinz I am willing to make my entry the test subject for this if you didn't want to use your own...Just need to know who besides you (and your K/D) entries would be, it would take a bit of coordination to be able to get the math to stay in cap to work, but I'm willing to work with everyone.

@Contest Turk or @Joe Bryant - this wouldn't affect any of the legal issues if its my entry would it? I would still be submitting my entry, it would just be a consensus of 5 other posters.

Your entry is your entry.

 

[BassNBrew]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

The answer to this is to take the lineups of the people entering Joe's special contest (if he does that again) and use the most common listed players.

The top 10 from last year is littered with Puka, Love, and Lions D.

 

[TheWinz]

2023 stats for contest D's

- Of the 3154 total points scored by D's, 1330 points were by sacks, which accounted for 42.17%
- INT's were the next highest contributor with 810 points (405 INT's x 2 pts per INT) and they accounted for 25.68%
- Fumble recoveries were next with 576 points (288 FR's x 2 pts per FR) and they accounted for 18.26%
- Lastly, there were 73 TD's, and at 6 pts per TD (total 438 points), they accounted for 13.89%
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 270 out of 438 points (61.64%) came from INT's returned for TD's
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 102 out of 438 points (23.29%) came from fumble recoveries for TD's
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 42 out of 438 points (9.59%) came from punt returns for TD's
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 24 out of 438 points (5.48%) came from kick returns for TD's

The reason I broke this down was to see exactly where the D points are coming from in the contest.
- Which player on the opposing team gets sacked? The QB
- Which player on the opposing team throws INT's? The QB (although Tyler Boyd did throw one last year)
- Which player on the opposing team loses the most fumbles? The QB, and it's not even close. Last year, there were 10 players who had at least 5 lost fumbles. All were QB's.
- Which player on the opposing team throws INT's that get returned for TD's? The QB
- Which player on the opposing team is most likely to lose a fumble that gets returned for a TD? The QB

Looking at the above, the opposing QB plays a massive role in about 97.91% of all contest D scoring.

 

[TheWinz]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

The answer to this is to take the lineups of the people entering Joe's special contest (if he does that again) and use the most common listed players.

The top 10 from last year is littered with Puka, Love, and Lions D.

I missed the boat on all the cheap studs last year, and I mean every one of them. I did have Van Jefferson and Parris Campbell though, and they finished as WR's 121 and 140. Amazed I made it to week 12.

 

[Dacomish]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

@TheWinz I am willing to make my entry the test subject for this if you didn't want to use your own...Just need to know who besides you (and your K/D) entries would be, it would take a bit of coordination to be able to get the math to stay in cap to work, but I'm willing to work with everyone.

@Contest Turk or @Joe Bryant - this wouldn't affect any of the legal issues if its my entry would it? I would still be submitting my entry, it would just be a consensus of 5 other posters.

If you really wouldn't mind using your entry, I see no reason why the FBG would care. You'd still be just submitting your 1 entry. As for who to invite to participate, I do have a suggestion - you could make a post in here asking for volunteers. Make a deadline for volunteers, like 2 weeks from now. Then you can create a group conversation where only the volunteers are, and they can chat amongst themselves all they want. As @Grid71 and @joey have already said, you really have to have all "experts" chatting at the same time, because even though each position is it's own, they all have to kind of merge together.

Per Joe's thoughts later on in the thread nixing my entry as test subject.

 

[Scoresman]

2023 stats for contest D's

- Of the 3154 total points scored by D's, 1330 points were by sacks, which accounted for 42.17%
- INT's were the next highest contributor with 810 points (405 INT's x 2 pts per INT) and they accounted for 25.68%
- Fumble recoveries were next with 576 points (288 FR's x 2 pts per FR) and they accounted for 18.26%
- Lastly, there were 73 TD's, and at 6 pts per TD (total 438 points), they accounted for 13.89%
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 270 out of 438 points (61.64%) came from INT's returned for TD's
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 102 out of 438 points (23.29%) came from fumble recoveries for TD's
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 42 out of 438 points (9.59%) came from punt returns for TD's
- Breaking down the TD's even further, 24 out of 438 points (5.48%) came from kick returns for TD's

The reason I broke this down was to see exactly where the D points are coming from in the contest.
- Which player on the opposing team gets sacked? The QB
- Which player on the opposing team throws INT's? The QB (although Tyler Boyd did throw one last year)
- Which player on the opposing team loses the most fumbles? The QB, and it's not even close. Last year, there were 10 players who had at least 5 lost fumbles. All were QB's.
- Which player on the opposing team throws INT's that get returned for TD's? The QB
- Which player on the opposing team is most likely to lose a fumble that gets returned for a TD? The QB

Looking at the above, the opposing QB plays a massive role in about 97.91% of all contest D scoring.

When using this criteria, there are some surprising defenses(that should be cheap) that project to do well in this contest.

 

[joey]

I want to try a roster where 5 different board regulars each take a position (QB, RB, WR, TE, and K/D) and become expert at it, then make a killer team. I would take the K/D position of course.

@TheWinz I am willing to make my entry the test subject for this if you didn't want to use your own...Just need to know who besides you (and your K/D) entries would be, it would take a bit of coordination to be able to get the math to stay in cap to work, but I'm willing to work with everyone.

@Contest Turk or @Joe Bryant - this wouldn't affect any of the legal issues if its my entry would it? I would still be submitting my entry, it would just be a consensus of 5 other posters.

If you really wouldn't mind using your entry, I see no reason why the FBG would care. You'd still be just submitting your 1 entry. As for who to invite to participate, I do have a suggestion - you could make a post in here asking for volunteers. Make a deadline for volunteers, like 2 weeks from now. Then you can create a group conversation where only the volunteers are, and they can chat amongst themselves all they want. As @Grid71 and @joey have already said, you really have to have all "experts" chatting at the same time, because even though each position is it's own, they all have to kind of merge together.

Ok I'm happy for my entry to be the test subject @TheWinz is alluding to. If you want to help with the exercise, feel free to DM me or post up here if you are interested. No deadline yet, still real early, just looking at who wants to participate.

Looking forward to seeing if our collective minds in here can formulate a winning roster!

I don’t think I’ve ever made it past week 7, 8 or 9 in this contest, so while it’s an interesting exercise and I look forward to seeing what roster options comes from it, I have zero proven track record of fielding a contender in this contest.

Good luck.

 

[Scoresman]

I wish we could do a few of these "test" entries. A Solver based optimized team based on expert consensus rankings would be fun too.

 

[joey]

I wish we could do a few of these "test" entries. A Solver based optimized team based on expert consensus rankings would be fun too.

Hell, I’d be interested in being a test entry as well this year since I’m obviously not picking any better than average.
If this effort ends up with a couple of “expert built” rosters we’d like to submit, one can be from @Dacomish and the other could be mine.

 

[Scoresman]

Does anyone have last year's players and prices?

 

[TheWinz]

When using this criteria, there are some surprising defenses(that should be cheap) that project to do well in this contest.

And you quickly see how very few special teams TD's there really are.
In 2023, 22 teams scored none, 9 teams scored 1, and only the Texans scored 2
In 2022, 24 teams scored none, 7 teams scored 1, and only the Bills scored 2
In 2021, 22 teams scored none, 9 teams scored 1, and only the Vikings scored 2
In 2020, 18 teams scored none, 13 teams scored 1, and only the Chiefs scored 2

The days of Devin Hester are over

 

[TheWinz]

I wish we could do a few of these "test" entries. A Solver based optimized team based on expert consensus rankings would be fun too.

Does anyone have last year's players and prices?

You can find last year's players and prices by using the contest querier link that I posted in the OP of this thread. As for doing test entries, I have an idea for that, and I have a sneaking suspicion you are thinking the same. Why not just use last year's pricing, and merge it with this year's current ADP? Sure, the ADP will change, but it's not like CMC is going to become RB12 or anything. Barring injury, he will be the most expensive RB in the contest, and last year that was $34. He was tied with Ekeler for $34, but common sense says he will have his very own dollar amount this year, so he will probably be closer to the $39 that Jonathan Taylor was in 2022.

 

[Scoresman]

I wish we could do a few of these "test" entries. A Solver based optimized team based on expert consensus rankings would be fun too.

Does anyone have last year's players and prices?

You can find last year's players and prices by using the contest querier link that I posted in the OP of this thread. As for doing test entries, I have an idea for that, and I have a sneaking suspicion you are thinking the same. Why not just use last year's pricing, and merge it with this year's current ADP? Sure, the ADP will change, but it's not like CMC is going to become RB12 or anything. Barring injury, he will be the most expensive RB in the contest, and last year that was $34. He was tied with Ekeler for $34, but common sense says he will have his very own dollar amount this year, so he will probably be closer to the $39 that Jonathan Taylor was in 2022.

Thanks. I see them in the analyzer tool dropdown, was just wondering if the prices existed in a downloadable or copy/paste-able format. If not, I'll just wait for this year's player list to come out.

I already have a solver set up for my auction league, it wouldn't be too much work to tweak it for this.

 

[TheWinz]

Thanks. I see them in the analyzer tool dropdown, was just wondering if the prices existed in a downloadable or copy/paste-able format. If not, I'll just wait for this year's player list to come out.

Scroll on up to post #16 in this thread. Will ZWK's spreadsheet work for you?