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2025 FBG Subscriber Contest (7 Viewers)

Looks like my gambit to load up on week 5 byes looks like it paid off! I'm sitting at 145.6, and I still get all of KC defense and Cam Little.

Goff had a good game as expected against Cincy. Chase Brown and Chubb did just enough with Bijan on bye. Egbuka, Sutton did their thing, and Ridley finally counted for me with Odunze on bye. And Hockenson and Warren gave me good scores with Kraft on bye. Woohooo!!!
 
This is my best week so far, even with 4 guys on bye week and Pearsall out injured.

I’m sitting in 198.8 after 4pm games…
With RB James Cook -10.8, and WR Kayshon Boutte, - 13.3 remaining for FLEX scores,
And JAGS defense and CHIEFS defense - 17

Would be nice to get a few more points and crack 200. I’m guessing lots of teams will probably be over 200 this week.
I also have 199. Onto week 6.
 
JCM, Chase and Egbuka trying to carry me across the finish line with no QB this week and no Bowers and no Bijan but not feeling good about it with 4 teams left to play.
 
OK, start with this mentality - 2 RBs for $13/each are better than 1 RB at $26. And so on .... You want protection from injuries, and byes, and your RB getting the flu on Sunday, or being game-planned into a single digit score, or being ejected during the game, or his team fighting from behind with the passing game, or ...... then better to have a next man up mentality.
But if you use this mentality, you can then say it's better to roster 4 RB's for $6.50 each, or 8 RB's for $3.25 each. Next thing you know, you have a roster of $1 scrubs.
There are obvious limits. I see teams going into battle with only 4 RBs. Won't last by a long shot. If we were allowed more than 30 players, for $85 spent on your running back group, I'd rather have 14 each of $6 RBs than just 4 RBs averaging $21. Ever heard about too many eggs in one basket? Same applies to the other groups (WR, TE, K, D).
The hardest position for cheap players to make a difference is RB. Here are the top 20 scorers at each position from last year:

QB - 47 offered - bolded the 5 "best" deals. I defined "best" by expense minus overall finish (i.e. Baker Mayfield is 20 - 3 = 17)
1 - Lamar Jackson - $24 - 4th most expensive
2 - Joe Burrow - $22 - 7th most expensive
3 - Baker Mayfield - $14 - 20th most expensive
4 - Josh Allen - $27 - 1st most expensive (tied)
5 - Jayden Daniels - $17 - 14th most expensive (tied)
6 - Jared Goff - $18 - 11th most expensive (tied)
7 - Sam Darnold - $9 - 31st most expensive (tied)
8 - Jalen Hurts - $27 - 1st most expensive (tied)
9 - Patrick Mahomes - $27 - 1st most expensive (tied)
10 - Bo Nix - $11 - 26th most expensive (tied)
11 - Brock Purdy - $18 - 11th most expensive (tied)
12 - Kyler Murray - $20 - 9th most expensive
13 - Justin Herbert - $16 - 16th most expensive (tied)
14 - Geno Smith - $12 - 22nd most expensive (tied)
15 - Aaron Rodgers - $16 - 16th most expensive (tied)
16 - Caleb Williams - $16 - 16th most expensive (tied)
17 - Jordan Love - $21 - 8th most expensive
18 - CJ Stroud - $23 - 5th most expensive (tied)
19 - Matthew Stafford - $13 - 21st most expensive
20 - Kirk Cousins - $15 - 19th most expensive

RB - 91 offered - bolded the 5 "best" deals
1 - Saquon Barkley - $29 - 4th most expensive
2 - Derrick Henry - $26 - 10th most expensive
3 - Jahmyr Gibbs - $28 - 5th most expensive (tied)
4 - Bijan Robinson - $33 - 2nd most expensive (tied)
5 - Josh Jacobs - $23 - 13th most expensive (tied)
6 - Kyren Williams - $27 - 7th most expensive (tied)
7 - De'Von Achane - $21 - 16th most expensive
8 - James Cook - $24 - 12th most expensive
9 - Alvin Kamara - $23 - 13th most expensive (tied)
10 - James Conner - $17 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
11 - Chase Brown - $13 - 34th most expensive (tied)
12 - Chuba Hubbard - $12 - 38th most expensive (tied)

13 - Joe Mixon - $22 - 15th most expensive
14 - Jonathan Taylor - $28 - 5th most expensive (tied)
15 - Aaron Jones - $19 - 18th most expensive (tied)
16 - Bucky Irving - $5 - 64th most expensive (tied)
17 - David Montgomery - $19 - 18th most expensive (tied)
18 - Breece Hall - $33 - 2nd most expensive (tied)
19 - Rachaad White - $27 - 7th most expensive (tied)
20 - D'Andre Swift - $17 - 23rd most expensive (tied)

WR - 116 offered - bolded the 5 "best" deals
1 - Ja'Marr Chase - $35 - 4th most expensive
2 - Justin Jefferson - $36 - 3rd most expensive
3 - Amon-Ra St. Brown - $34 - 5th most expensive (tied)
4 - CeeDee Lamb - $38 - 1st most expensive
5 - Brian Thomas Jr. - $13 - 43rd most expensive (tied)
6 - Malik Nabers - $19 - 27th most expensive (tied)
7 - Terry McLaurin - $19 - 27th most expensive (tied)
8 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $15 - 37th most expensive
9 - Garrett Wilson - $32 - 6th most expensive (tied)
10 - Drake London - $30 - 9th most expensive (tied)
11 - Jerry Jeudy - $12 - 50th most expensive (tied)
12 - Ladd McConkey - $14 - 40th most expensive (tied)

13 - Mike Evans - $29 - 12th most expensive
14 - Courtland Sutton - $13 - 43rd most expensive (tied)
15 - Davante Adams - $30 - 9th most expensive (tied)
16 - AJ Brown - $32 - 6th most expensive (tied)
17 - Tee Higgins - $19 - 27th most expensive (tied)
18 - Tyreek Hill - $37 - 2nd most expensive
19 - DJ Moore - $22 - 20th most expensive
20 - Jordan Addison - $14 - 40th most expensive (tied)

TE - 49 offered - bolded the 5 "best" deals
1 - Brock Bowers - $14 - 10th most expensive
2 - Trey McBride - $24 - 3rd most expensive
3 - George Kittle - $15 - 9th most expensive
4 - Travis Kelce - $30 - 1st most expensive (tied)
5 - Jonnu Smith - $8 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
6 - Mark Andrews - $23 - 4th most expensive
7 - Zach Ertz - $8 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
8 - Sam LaPorta - $30 - 1st most expensive (tied)
9 - Tucker Kraft - $7 - 28th most expensive (tied)
10 - Hunter Henry - $9 - 18th most expensive (tied)
11 - Pat Freiermuth - $10 - 16th most expensive (tied)
12 - David Njoku - $14 - 10th most expensive (tied)
13 - Cade Otton - $8 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
14 - Mike Gesicki - $7 - 28th most expensive (tied)

15 - Kyle Pitts - $17 - 7th most expensive (tied)
16 - Chig Okonkwo - $9 - 18th most expensive (tied)
17 - Cole Kmet - $14 - 10th most expensive (tied)
18 - Isaiah Likely - $9 - 18th most expensive (tied)
19 - Dalton Schultz - $12 - 15th most expensive
20 - Tyler Conklin - $10 - 16th most expensive (tied)

PK - 32 offered - bolded the 5 "best" deals
1 - Chris Boswell - $4 - 13th most expensive (tied)
2 - Brandon Aubrey - $8 - 1st most expensive
3 - Ka'imi Fairbairn - $6 - 5th most expensive (tied)
4 - Cameron Dicker - $4 - 13th most expensive (tied)
5 - Chase McLaughlin - $4 - 13th most expensive (tied)
6 - Jake Bates - $3 - 26th most expensive (tied)

7 - Jason Sanders - $5 - 11th most expensive (tied)
8 - Wil Lutz - $4 - 13th most expensive (tied)
9 - Daniel Carlson - $4 - 13th most expensive (tied)
10 - Jake Elliott - $6 - 5th most expensive (tied)
11 - Tyler Bass - $6 - 5th most expensive (tied)
12 - Matt Gay - $7 - 2nd most expensive (tied)
13 - Justin Tucker - $7 - 2nd most expensive (tied)
14 - Jason Myers - $6 - 5th most expensive (tied)
15 - Joshua Karty - $3 - 26th most expensive (tied)
16 - Younghoe Koo - $6 - 5th most expensive (tied)
17 - Blake Grupe - $4 - 13th most expensive (tied)
18 - Will Reichard - $3 - 26th most expensive (tied)
19 - Cam Little - $3 - 26th most expensive (tied)
20 - Jake Moody - $6 - 5th most expensive (tied)

TD - 32 offered - bolded the 5 "best" deals
1 - DEN - $3 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
2 - MIN - $4 - 16th most expensive (tied)

3 - BUF - $6 - 6th most expensive (tied)
4 - HOU - $5 - 10th most expensive (tied)
5 - DAL - $7 - 1st most expensive (tied)
6 - PIT - $6 - 6th most expensive (tied)
7 - GB - $3 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
8 - SEA - $4 - 16th most expensive (tied)
9 - CIN - $5 - 10th most expensive (tied)
10 - PHI - $5 - 10th most expensive (tied)
11 - DET - $4 - 16th most expensive (tied)
12 - LAR - $3 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
13 - LAC - $3 - 23rd most expensive (tied)

14 - ATL - $3 - 23rd most expensive (tied)
15 - IND - $5 - 10th most expensive (tied)
15 - BAL - $7 - 1st most expensive (tied)
17 - CHI - $5 - 10th most expensive (tied)
18 - TB - $4 - 16th most expensive (tied)
19 - KC - $6 - 6th most expensive (tied)
20 - WAS - $3 - 23rd most expensive (tied)

As you see above, only 3 of the top 20 RB's were priced under $17, and the 20th highest scoring RB scored only 179 points. There were 35 WR's to score at least 180 points, and 14 of them were $16 and under. My whole point for doing this is to show you can't win with bargain basement RB's, but you can with every other position. I'm not saying you should totally avoid the cheap RB's, but you simply can't survive with a bunch of RB's $13 and under. Just look at the current top 20 RB's after 4 weeks - 15 of them are $20 and over, 3 are $16-$18, and the 2 outliers are $13 (Javonte Williams at RB6) and $8 (Kenneth Gainwell at RB20). A grand total of 1 entry chose both Javonte Williams and Kenneth Gainwell.
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
 
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Sitting at 140.4 so sweating. The good news is I still have Trevor Lawrence and cam little who will both fully count for me. I have Diggs -8.3 and jaguars defense -7 so hopefully they start counting.
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
 
Sitting at 140.4 so sweating. The good news is I still have Trevor Lawrence and cam little who will both fully count for me. I have Diggs -8.3 and jaguars defense -7 so hopefully they start counting.
You should only be sweating if you’re in a sauna, I mean, you’ve got to be a 99.9% Log to fence
 
Sitting at 140.4 so sweating. The good news is I still have Trevor Lawrence and cam little who will both fully count for me. I have Diggs -8.3 and jaguars defense -7 so hopefully they start counting.
You should only be sweating if you’re in a sauna, I mean, you’ve got to be a 99.9% Log to fence
I appreciate the insight. I sweat the Turk and am terrible with forecasting the cut.
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
$16 or more would include me: rookies RJ Harvey $19, and Trevion Henderson $18. Definitely still waiting for them to grow into their 2025 potential. One can't just operate from out of the bargain basement! My team is 101260 in case your interested, and so far so good. But that can change in an instant because the main ingredient in this whole thing is good old fashioned luck, or lack thereof.
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
I'm finding it instructional to have taken Henry and Brown as RB1 and RB2...although the lesson may end up getting me bounced. I think in future years...Lord willing....I will either go superdeluxe RB1 (Gibbs, Mcaffree) and $12 RB2A and $12 RB2B....or $12 each RB1A, RB1B, RB2A, RB2B (the $12 figure is just for reference by which I mean the price for Henry and Brown was too rich from a risk mgt standpoint).
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.

Having played this contest for 20+ years (and spending countless hours for a lot of those years cutting up the data in every way imaginable), the main conclusion I've come to is that to win a contest like this with 10,000+ entrants, you mostly need to be lucky. You can slightly improve your chances through thoughtful roster construction but the primary ingredient is luck. Sometimes the winner gets lucky by surviving through the regular season with a smaller roster, and sometimes the winner gets lucky by having some cheaper randos peak in week 16. Sometimes the winner has 18 players, sometimes 27+ (I don't remember if anyone ever won with 30, though). One year the winner had only one QB - obviously not a "good" strategy but they survived the bye week with a 0 at QB and won anyway.

I used to spend the entire month of August working on my entry, and then the next four months analyzing it weekly, and usually got bounced somewhere in the middle of the season. The last couple of years I've thrown together a roster at the last minute and I think I've made the finals two years in a row (or two of the last three or something, and currently am in 5th place this week with a score of 230 going into tonight!) You can look at how many weekly top ten winners make the playoffs - I suspect they overindex on playoff representation, but no longer have all the data to check - but unless you're doing it for fun I promise it's not worth it.
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
I'm finding it instructional to have taken Henry and Brown as RB1 and RB2...although the lesson may end up getting me bounced. I think in future years...Lord willing....I will either go superdeluxe RB1 (Gibbs, Mcaffree) and $12 RB2A and $12 RB2B....or $12 each RB1A, RB1B, RB2A, RB2B (the $12 figure is just for reference by which I mean the price for Henry and Brown was too rich from a risk mgt standpoint).
I couldn't find any bargains at RB that I liked. I felt like I needed 2 workhorse, so I shelled out for Bijan and Chase Brown. Brown obviously has been a disappointment, and I think I've used Nick Chubb more than Brown, but I think Bijan has been worth it so far. Also really disappointed in Braelon Allen, even before the injury. I really thought he was going to be the goal line back for the Jets.
 
I love my 30-man team for survivability, but not sure I have a great shot at winning unless a couple of low level guys get bigger shares. RBs are a weak spot.
 
I survived another week. Goff had a good game with Caleb on bye. Should go over 175 this week, my best week so far. Chase Brown is still killing me and will be my downfall.
I saw that Goff had a sweet matchup with Cincy in week 5, and paired him with Love instead of Caleb. Definitely made me more comfortable with going 2 QB.
 
I survived another week. Goff had a good game with Caleb on bye. Should go over 175 this week, my best week so far. Chase Brown is still killing me and will be my downfall.
I saw that Goff had a sweet matchup with Cincy in week 5, and paired him with Love instead of Caleb. Definitely made me more comfortable with going 2 QB.
I always go 2 mid range QB, and I select carefully given the matchups when the other is on bye. At the time I thought CIN-DET would be a shootout. Caleb plays BAL when Goff is on bye, which now is a good matchup, but at the time I figured BAL would score 30+ against CHI and Caleb would have to keep pace.
 
I survived another week. Goff had a good game with Caleb on bye. Should go over 175 this week, my best week so far. Chase Brown is still killing me and will be my downfall.

Yeah, Chase Brown is killing lots of teams this year. He has been a bust so far, but I attribute that somewhat to the fact that Burrow is out, and defenses are focusing more on stopping the run because Browning is not the passing thread at QB that Burrow was.

I'm just hoping Brown shows up and produces a score that counts here and there for the rest of the season... if and until Burrow comes back, which is not a given if the Bengals are out of the playoff picture by the time he is healthy enough to come back.

What sucks is like most people, I was looking for 2 or 3 RBs that I felt would likely produce a score each week and was willing to spend a little to get them, and I thought Brown and Cook were pretty much a sure thing at $26 and $25. I threw in Montgomery for $18 thinking he was the best RB2 available. Of those three, I didn't expect Brown to be the weakest link. I threw in JCM as a $6 lottery ticket, which is starting to pay off, and Brooks for $4 as Chase Brown insurance, thinking Brown was likely my strongest RB. I really missed on that one and I wish I had spent that $4 somewhere else.

But the good news is my RB group has carried me well so far in spite of the mess with Chase Brown. If Brown finds a way to turn it around, I would be in good shape.
 
I survived another week. Goff had a good game with Caleb on bye. Should go over 175 this week, my best week so far. Chase Brown is still killing me and will be my downfall.

Yeah, Chase Brown is killing lots of teams this year. He has been a bust so far, but I attribute that somewhat to the fact that Burrow is out, and defenses are focusing more on stopping the run because Browning is not the passing thread at QB that Burrow was.

I'm just hoping Brown shows up and produces a score that counts here and there for the rest of the season... if and until Burrow comes back, which is not a given if the Bengals are out of the playoff picture by the time he is healthy enough to come back.

What sucks is like most people, I was looking for 2 or 3 RBs that I felt would likely produce a score each week and was willing to spend a little to get them, and I thought Brown and Cook were pretty much a sure thing at $26 and $25. I threw in Montgomery for $18 thinking he was the best RB2 available. Of those three, I didn't expect Brown to be the weakest link. I threw in JCM as a $6 lottery ticket, which is starting to pay off, and Brooks for $4 as Chase Brown insurance, thinking Brown was likely my strongest RB. I really missed on that one and I wish I had spent that $4 somewhere else.

But the good news is my RB group has carried me well so far in spite of the mess with Chase Brown. If Brown finds a way to turn it around, I would be in good shape.

Ironically, I think the Bengals MUST allow Browning to throw more 50/50 balls to have a prayer to not go winless until Burrow comes back. I want to take some encouragement in the fact that Chase was very productive late in yesterday's game, and that there is a newfound 50/50 ball attitude which will create some "fall in the end zone" opportunities for Brown from the 1 yard line.

Because of this year's scar tissue, it will hard to not treat the Brown/Cook/"RB1B" range as radioactive in future contests....he said naively.
 
I survived another week. Goff had a good game with Caleb on bye. Should go over 175 this week, my best week so far. Chase Brown is still killing me and will be my downfall.

Yeah, Chase Brown is killing lots of teams this year. He has been a bust so far, but I attribute that somewhat to the fact that Burrow is out, and defenses are focusing more on stopping the run because Browning is not the passing thread at QB that Burrow was.

I'm just hoping Brown shows up and produces a score that counts here and there for the rest of the season... if and until Burrow comes back, which is not a given if the Bengals are out of the playoff picture by the time he is healthy enough to come back.

What sucks is like most people, I was looking for 2 or 3 RBs that I felt would likely produce a score each week and was willing to spend a little to get them, and I thought Brown and Cook were pretty much a sure thing at $26 and $25. I threw in Montgomery for $18 thinking he was the best RB2 available. Of those three, I didn't expect Brown to be the weakest link. I threw in JCM as a $6 lottery ticket, which is starting to pay off, and Brooks for $4 as Chase Brown insurance, thinking Brown was likely my strongest RB. I really missed on that one and I wish I had spent that $4 somewhere else.

But the good news is my RB group has carried me well so far in spite of the mess with Chase Brown. If Brown finds a way to turn it around, I would be in good shape.

Ironically, I think the Bengals MUST allow Browning to throw more 50/50 balls to have a prayer to not go winless until Burrow comes back. I want to take some encouragement in the fact that Chase was very productive late in yesterday's game, and that there is a newfound 50/50 ball attitude which will create some "fall in the end zone" opportunities for Brown from the 1 yard line.

Because of this year's scar tissue, it will hard to not treat the Brown/Cook/"RB1B" range as radioactive in future contests....he said naively.
Amazing what an elite QB can do for a team. Announcers said something about Jamar Chase being tied for the lead in tackles. Pushing the ball downfield more feels more like 10% than "50/50" balls. Coaches need to simplify things and create some easier opportunities. Chase Brown should be peppered with targets. Let him take the check downs and make plays. Team is a mess.

Hopefully the team finds a way to score some points and move the chains outside garbage time.
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
Yes agree. And I would go a step further and advise focusing on RB first as you evaluate how to build the roster. Pick your 2 starters at RB as the foundation and build out the roster from there making sure the starters at QB, WR, TE have different bye weeks from those 2 RB.
 
Because of this year's scar tissue, it will hard to not treat the Brown/Cook/"RB1B" range as radioactive in future contests....he said naively.
Here's the current top 10 scoring RB's:
Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty

Pricewise, all of the top 6 are on this list, and the others are 8th, 11th, 13th, and 40th. I just happened to roster Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, who have both been relative busts. But I guarantee the 29 left who rostered CMC and Cook are ecstatic.
 
QB-Stafford
RB-Bill, Mason
WR-Egbuka, Pittman and Coleman
TE- Kincaid and Fannin -Flex
K/Def- Slye and the Phins

188 this week
It's been steady 155-175 most weeks
Injuries starting to mount
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
Yes agree. And I would go a step further and advise focusing on RB first as you evaluate how to build the roster. Pick your 2 starters at RB as the foundation and build out the roster from there making sure the starters at QB, WR, TE have different bye weeks from those 2 RB.
Yeah, I started by choosing my top 2 RB's. I just happened to pick very very badly this year. :-)
 
I appreciate the time you invested and the detailed analysis you provided, thank you. But to a large extent, this proves the next point I need to make. You don't need rosters comprised of top annual performers in this game. It's a survivor contest for the first 14 weeks. All you need is a roster that keeps you from losing (scoring under the cut line). I'd like an analysis as to how many weekly top ten winners get to the playoffs. It's easy to pick a team of top week 1-4 performers. Then the injuries, and the byes, and the cuts, and the spread-the-ball-arounders, and the up-and-comers, and the fumblitists, and the bad attitudists, and, and and. In my opinion, you need to fill out 30 roster positions after careful study and due diligence (which you Winz are quite good at), and figure out how to keep your nose above a rough sea until week 15. Then, you're one of < 250 teams and hopefully, your early $5 scrubs and 2nd & 3rd stringers have developed into end-of-year gems and next year's $25 players. And, hopefully, that growth is the result of the reasoned forethought that you mixed into your recipe on how the NFL season might progress.
I provided data for all the positions to highlight one thing - yes, you can certainly advance without spending $$ on stud players, but IMO, I don't think you can make it to week 15 without spending up on at least 1 RB, and maybe even 2. Sadly, you used to be able to view rosters from year's past, but that no longer exists. I will certainly be digging through the rosters that make it to the finals, but my guess is most of them will have at least 2 RB's priced $16 or more.
Yes agree. And I would go a step further and advise focusing on RB first as you evaluate how to build the roster. Pick your 2 starters at RB as the foundation and build out the roster from there making sure the starters at QB, WR, TE have different bye weeks from those 2 RB.
Yeah, I started by choosing my top 2 RB's. I just happened to pick very very badly this year. :-)
I wouldn't say I picked great either and my current iteration is the only 1 that would still be alive.
 
It's not about 50/50 balls with Browning - it's about his inclination to throw 25/75 balls. There is no reluctance in that regard with him - the choices aren't always great. That said with him in there there certainly is the chance for the garbage time stats like Chase and Higgins had yesterday.

Brown has been killed by a stale run plan and a line clearly not built to establish the run (and also with 3 young starters.

But having Burrow in this contest right now it looks bleak for a return unless the Bengals miraculously come back to like - no sense putting him in if the team is 4-9

-QG
 
Taking quick stock of my rooster after 5 weeks...

QB - Tagovailoa $10 - Used 4 times for 98.80 points. Burrow $26 - Used 1 time for 11.95
Clearly a sense of doom overall about the roster with the absence of Burrow being a heavy blow. But very happy and surprised with how well Tua has produced. That said, this experience is almost certain to get me back into the 3 QB camp as injury risk disaster is just too high.

RB - Mason $11 - Used 3 times for 45.40 points. Brown $26 - 3 for 28.20 points. Henry $31 - 2 for 42.90. Croskey-Merritt $6 - 2 for 42.20. Chubb $8 - 1 for 14.20.
I've used everybody so I guess that's good. Only 1 time all season has one of my RBs been a flex however and these total contributions are lacking. Henry and Brown have been massive disappointments to this point and Mason and Croskey-Merritt has probably kept things from being worse.

WR - Egbuka $10 - Used 4 times for 87.50. K Allen $5 - 3 for 56.40. T McMillan $17 - 3 for 39.50. T Franklin $3 - 2 for 33.50. Ayomanor $2 - 2 for 29.40. D Moore $16 - 1 for 12.80. J Palmer $7 - 0 for 0. D Douglas $7 - 0 for 0. K Turpin $2 - 0 for 0.
Overall this has been a great group with some real solid values (making up for D Moore looking like a mistake). This group also has the only 3 players that haven't counted for me yet. Turpin came close and Palmer did have one decent effort. Douglas has been mostly a waste though I can safely say that all 3 of them at least have in the mix for targets and receptions. 5 times one of these guys have filled a flex spot. Feel very good about my approach of a lower ceiling price with lots of mid and low-priced bullets.

TE - T Warren $15 - Used 4 times for 69.50. LaPorta $23 - 3 for 48.90. M Taylor $7 - 2 for 34.20. These 3 have been a big hit for me - in hindsight I do wish I had thrown another cheap TE onto my rooster though. 4 flex appearances from a group of 3 players is excellent. Very happy here.

PK - Boswell $4 - Used 2 times for 29.70 points. Santos $3 - Used 2 times* for 27.20 points. Grupe $3 - used 1 time for 16.30 points. (Santos and Grupe actually tied in week 3, so far I'm giving it to Santos as he has scored more so far. An average of 14.64 kicker points per week is awesome. Even screwing up and having Boswell and Santos on the same bye I couldn't be happier with these choices.

DEF - New Orleans $3 - Used 2 times for 22 points. Atlanta $3 - 2 for 17 points. Miami $3 - 1 for 8 points. An average of 9.4 points each week per defense with 3 $3 defenses is outstanding as well. Very satisfied with this approach as well.

Nobody has counted for me all 5 weeks - Tua (naturally), Egbuka, and Warren lead the way at 4 apiece. As mentioned above 3 of my 9 WRs haven't counted yet - making a total of $16 in dead money.

So there you go. I don't really regret my approach at RB - just the choices that were made at the high dollar slots - there are many other pairs totaling $57 that would have worked out much better. But Tua's solid play and the depth at WR, TE, and full hits at PK and DEF have kept me alive. If only I could somehow last and somehow Burrow does come back.

On to Week 6!!!
:pickle:
-QG
 
Enjoying the sweat. Started the night 5.2 under the cut line.

5 of 21 players on bye
Get all of JAX kicker
Life depends upon Travis Hunter and/or Hollywood (-5.6 and -6.5) squeaking out enough points. Travis Hunter is fun to watch. He smiles so much and has fun out there. Refreshing.

Think I’m going to make it, but not certain. I know we have live scoring option but I like going old school waiting till FBG updates scores in the morning.
 
Because of this year's scar tissue, it will hard to not treat the Brown/Cook/"RB1B" range as radioactive in future contests....he said naively.
Here's the current top 10 scoring RB's:
Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, James Cook, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Ashton Jeanty

Pricewise, all of the top 6 are on this list, and the others are 8th, 11th, 13th, and 40th. I just happened to roster Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, who have both been relative busts. But I guarantee the 29 left who rostered CMC and Cook are ecstatic.

I'm wondering aloud if there is a tier BELOW Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson where the risk/reward is sketchy.

Call this the "well they SHOULD be an elite RB1 but there might be something that is sketchy about their situation" and in this case its better to spend $12 and $13 than to spend $25.

In other words, instead of Henry and Brown you go CMC and two RB2s and minimize overall risk.

Admittedly it would have been hard to predict the Ravens / Henry implosion or the loss of Burrow trashing Brown's value...I think this may all boil down to remorse over "buying the Brown story" without really believing in the player.
 
Best week I’ve had so far, 193, which I find kind of ironic with Lamar being out. But Dak has really stepped up. Pickens/Egbuka/Warren have scored for me each week. Horrible pics by me of GANO and the Tennessee defense, but now I have Green Bay back from the bye, and hopefully they will carry me most weeks.
 
First time all year no ties affected the future cutlines, (not counting ties that may affect the final cut numbers):

Start 11139
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10026
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9026
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8127
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 6511
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5209
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4168
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3335
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2335
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1635
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1145
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 802
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 562
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 338
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 203 (means the top 22 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.

- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.

- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
 
Since I'm still alive and finished 115th this week, I imagine everyone is SUPER interested in my 30 man roster so here is a quick summary of this season to date:

QB - Ward, Tua, Rodgers, Darnold ($41) - feel good about this group. Most expensive guy, Ward, is the only one that hasn't contributed yet. Averaging 29.45 pts/week. All 4 are entrenched as starters and healthy so a big win so far.

RB - Brown, Henderson, Chubb, Bill, Woody, Monangai & Kendre Miller ($71) - very weak group thanks to my highest cost players (Brown/Henderson) underperforming expectations. Bill is looking like a possible savior and one of the Texans duo (Chubb/Woody) have counted 3/5 weeks. Lots of room for growth here as my bottom 3 are poised for potentially bigger roles and no one has been knocked out by injury. Only contributed 1/10 of the flex positions so far and only averaging a combined 28.46/week. Nobody is injured but need Brown/Henderson to start to do....something.

WR - JSN, DJ Moore, Golden, Pearsall, Egbuka, Keenan Allen, Coker & Franklin ($83) - I dropped some money here but it has paid off. Egbuka and JSN have counted all 5 weeks so far and Keenan Allen 4/5 weeks. This group has also contributed 7/10 possible flex spots with 3 guys who haven't contributed at all yet (Moore, Golden & Coker) but all will could easily have a big game on any given week going forward. My WR1 has averaged 23.52/week and my WR2 19.92/week. Have good top guys and depth here and expect them to continue to carry my team week to week.

TE - Goedert, Ertz, Taylor & Ferguson ($32) - like my top 3 guys here and Ferguson got his first catch of the year this week. I'm hoping Ertz's 0 catch week was an anomaly but this position has contributed 2 flex spots in addition to averaging 17.8 pts/week. Could have chosen a couple of other guys, but the position has been solid and still has potential for growth later on.

PK - Loop, Boswell & Grupe ($11) - Boswell/Grupe have taken all of the scores, but Loop has been solid as well. All 3 are still healthy and have job security so this position looks to be fine moving forward. Averaging 12.58/week.

TD - Falcons, Raiders, Saints & Dolphins ($12) - went with 4 highest rated $3 options due to the extreme variability of this position. All have different byes and I've only had one week where no one surpassed 3 points and have broke double digits twice. Averaging 9.60/week from this group.

I've had 3 weeks of 170+ points and 2 down weeks for an average weekly score of 170.81 points. This week was my high mark at 213.35 and it was a high bye week with 6 players out. If I survive to week 12, I'll be sweating out 6 guys off that week as well but the positions are spread out.
 
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Have not used

Kyle Monangai $4
Jayden Higgins $7
Roman Wilson $4
Kyle Williams $2
Evan McPherson $4

Egbuka and Tyler Warren have counted all 5 weeks for me.
 
I haven't done the shoulda/woulda/coulda analysis yet on what would have been a better pick than the guys that I did pick. I'd definitely look hard at my RB's and then some TE changes most likely.

Feel like my QB, WR, PK and TD picks are as solid and good going forward as I hoped.
 
We started the week with 42 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant badge offer. The great news is we still have 41 :clap:; the bad news is we lost @brun :crying:

Moving on to week 6 are:
@Irelad - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105109/week/1
@ZWK - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104585/week/1
@Galileo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102193/week/1
@rzrback77 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110111/week/1
@TheWinz - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102376/week/1
@scottybo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100693/week/1
@Tha Guru - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109783/week/1
@Maggot Brain - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105999/week/1
@-OZ- - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108784/week/1
@ClownDogs - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102155/week/1
@JoeSteeler - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101707/week/1
@MikesVikes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107455/week/1 and https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102212/week/1
@WoodedHills - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100720/week/1
@rustycolts - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104930/week/1
@H8fulHuck - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109705/week/1
@IHEARTFF - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104094/week/1
@ConstruxBoy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107958/week/1
@SeniorVBDStudent - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/111053/week/1
@Church of Iggy Pop - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110444/week/1
@dbc925 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/110116/week/1
@J Rod - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100110/week/1
@formerfourdigit - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/108618/week/1
@dzambo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109048/week/1
@BlackCrowes - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105260/week/1
@davidwb - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104854/week/1
@cstruk - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100211/week/1
@fightingillini - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107904/week/1
@Golden Gopher - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/104995/week/1
@Scoresman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105305/week/1
@Hot Sauce Guy - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/109871/week/1
@Birdie048 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107712/week/1
@kajaet - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102872/week/1
@Charles in Houston - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/101260/week/1
@da_budman - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102339/week/1
@JaBoo - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107978/week/1
@Gatorade - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/102094/week/1
@Shaunz33 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105827/week/1
@The Jerminator - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/107831/week/1
@a_troll00 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/105628/week/1
@Deamon - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/100194/week/1
@jm192 - https://www.footballguys.com/contests/subscribers/roster/106187/week/1

Of note
- rzrback77 was this week's top dog with 230.45 (12th place)
- H8fulHuck was this week's lowest advancing team, with a score of 147.75 (5016th place)

Good luck in week 6!
 
Shark poolers had some seriously high scores this week! Just in Joe's badge contest, there were about 30 out of 42 over 180, and another 10 or so over 200.
I am down to $9 in dead money (LAC D, Coker, and Dotson). This week have Marks on bye, with McLaurin and Coker still out injured.
I have been hesitant to look too close .. I don't want to jinx it...

But I had a weak moment and went into it...

Dead Money - 2 Players not used yet = $8 (Keaton Mitchell and Kyle Monangai).
Only 1 Player used all 5 x = JSN
With only 3 used 1x each = Tua, Jordan Mason & Kendre Miller ($25 total)
 

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