knowing tendencies, then what? (1 Viewer)

[Bri]

Followup to Texasmouth's thread. I had a previous discussion with TheJerk(I think) and we were looking for an example and I believe Texasmouth inadvertently gave it to us in this thread. Thanks TM BTW

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=248340&st=0

Suppose you know someone in your league covets Roy Williams, Donovan McNabb, and Jason Witten. What do you do in your draft?

Suppose it's not so crystal but instead you know he'll draft a QB late, in round X or 2 WRs by round Y, or a TE couple rounds after Tony G and Gates are gone.

You know this. How do you use this to your advantage?

 

[FUBAR]

It depends on where you draft in relation and if you want those players.

If you draft at the 2 hole, and he drafts in the 1, it's a pretty good advantage because you'll know that your player will fall from the even-11 to odd-2 (2.11 to 3.02 or 4.11 to 5.02); if you draft at opposite ends, I wouldn't think about it much, unless you're after the same player.

 

[SSOG]

Followup to Texasmouth's thread. I had a previous discussion with TheJerk(I think) and we were looking for an example and I believe Texasmouth inadvertently gave it to us in this thread. Thanks TM BTW

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=248340&st=0

Suppose you know someone in your league covets Roy Williams, Donovan McNabb, and Jason Witten. What do you do in your draft?

Suppose it's not so crystal but instead you know he'll draft a QB late, in round X or 2 WRs by round Y, or a TE couple rounds after Tony G and Gates are gone.

You know this. How do you use this to your advantage?

You have to evaluate it on a round-by-round basis. The trick is to let guys that you want fall for as long as you possibly can before finally pulling the trigger on them. Knowing your league's tendencies are critical on that.An example. Let's say that you are just absolutely OBSESSED with getting Antonio Gates. Say that your mother's best friend's neice is Gates' cousin's hairdresser, and she heard Gates' cousin say that Schotty's planning on throwing him the ball on every down and expects Gates to get 1500 yards and 20 TDs. In other words, you just HAVE to have him... but unfortunately, you're drafting out of the 6-hole.

In Round 1, you think about your league's tendencies. How likely is it that, if you pass, Gates will be gone by 2.07? Look specifically at the owners between your two picks. Have any of them expressed an unhealthy man-love for Gates? Are any of them SD Homers? Are any of them related to Gates in any manner? Odds are you will look at the league and conclude that he'll fall, so you can grab an RB in round 1 (even though you think Gates will be better value).

Now, Round 2 rolls around. This is where it gets tricky. Gates' ADP is the early third. If he lives up to his ADP, he'll be gone by your next pick. Let's say you know that one owner is obssessed with going RB-RB-RB at all costs, another is the biggest Peyton Manning fanboy, another one reads a preseason mag that accidentally forgot to rank Gates entirely, another one is a Raiders fan who refuses to draft Chargers players, and another guy is on a quest to field a fantasy team featuring nothing but white people (and is desperately hoping Brock Forsey makes a comeback). Armed with that knowledge, you might feel it's safe to let Gates slide another round and pick him up in the third. In this scenario, KNOWING YOUR LEAGUE has created value for you- it's basically given you an extra first round pick, since you can get TWO players that you were targeting in the first round.

Obviously, the further it is between your picks, the harder this strategy is. It's a lot easier to project who'll drop between pick 2.11 and 3.02 than it is between picks 3.02 and 4.11.

The other example is when you know someone else likes a specific player (like me and Ron Dayne). Let's say that we're competing on FBGs to become the biggest Ron Dayne Fanboy in history. Let's say that every time you make a projection for Dayne, I just add 20 yards, and every time I make a post about Dayne, you quote it and replace all the adjectives with even better adjectives. In other words, it's crystal clear... we both want Dayne. In that case, you have to use your knowledge of the league to know that there is no way in hell Dayne is lasting to his ADP. The question then becomes how long do you think that *I* think you're going to wait for Dayne? Because obviously I'm going to try to grab Dayne the pick before you do... so now you have to grab Dayne the pick before I do. Basically, you just have to take Dayne a round before you think that *I* expect you to take Dayne.

The third example of when knowing your league helps is when it comes to filling out your roster. Let's say it's late in the draft, 12th or 13th round, and you have 4 WRs and 4 RBs and are trying to decide between your WR5 and RB5. If you look and see that everyone between your next two picks already has 6 or more WRs, then grab the RB because there's a great chance there will be minimal dropoff at the WR position before your next pick.

 

[mlball77]

You have to evaluate it on a round-by-round basis. The trick is to let guys that you want fall for as long as you possibly can before finally pulling the trigger on them. Knowing your league's tendencies are critical on that.

Well put and succinct.

 

[WhoDat]

Followup to Texasmouth's thread. I had a previous discussion with TheJerk(I think) and we were looking for an example and I believe Texasmouth inadvertently gave it to us in this thread. Thanks TM BTW

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=248340&st=0

Suppose you know someone in your league covets Roy Williams, Donovan McNabb, and Jason Witten. What do you do in your draft?

Suppose it's not so crystal but instead you know he'll draft a QB late, in round X or 2 WRs by round Y, or a TE couple rounds after Tony G and Gates are gone.

You know this. How do you use this to your advantage?

To the bolded point I would suggest you leverage that knowledge and use it to your advantage. If Owner A has already locked himself into a specific player and is blind to the rest of the draft board due to his beliefs in that lone player, open a dialogue with him sooner than later. Trust that one or more other owners probably know this about Owner A and someone is going to play to Owner A's ego, while working what Owner A will feel like is a solid trade but what will appear like a slighly lopsided deal to the rest of the league.As players are removed from the draft pool; it draws closer to Owner A's selection and that much closer to the coveted player's actual ADP, put something into motion. Owner A is operating of off his perceived value of the player in question not necessarily factual ADP information. Thus, he will reach and overpay, as his pride is temporarily impairing his judgment. He wants his guy. Depending on Owner A's overall skill level and gut feeling about the player, he might only accept a trade that is slightly marked up or he may shock and pay whatever price necessary. You never know until you ask Owner A. There is nothing wrong with asking but not asking is a huge mistake.

If you are picking in front of him, then it would be silly not to propose an if, then type of trade with Owner A. If his player is available at your pick, then you will either pick the player on Owner A's behalf in exchange for (blank) or drop down and accept (blank) in compensation for your pick on the clock. I would suggest you go as far as to let Owner A know you have noticed he has an unhealhty man love for the player in question in your first email or phone exchange. Tell him you can see why he might feel that away about the player, as the player has a great situation; skill level; schedule; etc...You get the idea. Pump up the player. Pump up Owner A.

Capitialize on the fact you can temporarily inflate the player's value beyond what it should be according to all available sources and common sense. Make sure Owner A knows that you fully realize he cannot live without that player and that player is most likely going to get drafted before Owner A is back on the clock. Immediately establish that you have done your homework, as it will augment your negotiation position and speed things along. Present your first offer. Make the offer just a tad over realistic and see what takes place.

Everyone has an IQ, intelligence quotient, and EQ, emotional quotient. There are many books written about each. Owner A might normally be a personality type that has a significantly IQ, as compared to his EQ, but in this instance his EQ will interfere his ability to reason. Use it against him.