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Official 2019 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

1,024 with the popular Breida, Duke Johnson, Singletary stack.  

377 with Greg Joseph. 

 
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I learned posting my lineup early for advice is a bad move. There are two lineups that are very very similar to mine. Ones only difference is a $9 rb and the other has 1 different wr and 2 diff kickers. 

It was not a “chalk” lineup in the least. Only 4 total teams with my top 5 players and 2 of them are mirror images of mine that I posted 

Good luck to all 3 of us I guess 🤷‍♂️
Sorry to hear that. I enjoy the back and forth in the thread. 

 
So this was my final lineup.  I went somewhat cheap at WR to go a little heavier at defense and RB.  I think McCoy may be desperate for a Super Bowl.  This could be his last chance.  I expect to see the best he has left. 

Carson Wentz

Ben Roethlisberger

...........................................................................

LeVeon Bell

LeSean McCoy

Latavius Murray

Justin Jackson

Devin Singletary

Alexander Mattison

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Adam Thielen

James Washington

Tyrell Williams

Geronimo Allison

Josh Gordon

Mecole Hardman

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Eric Ebron

Jimmy Graham

Mark Andrews

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Harrison Butker

Steve Hauschka

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chicago Bears

Seattle Seahawks

New York Jets

 
I learned posting my lineup early for advice is a bad move. There are two lineups that are very very similar to mine. Ones only difference is a $9 rb and the other has 1 different wr and 2 diff kickers. 
I wouldn't necessarily assume they copied you. With 12,000+ entries there are always going to be a few similar rosters, and certain players that are obviously popular. I doubt that half of the users who entered even read the forum on a regular basis, much less this specific thread. On the other hand, if they did copy you then I really wonder why...it's basically like copying someone's lotto ticket. Sort of a lose/lose strategy.

 
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Lamar Jackson $12

Josh Allen $11

Ezekiel Elliott $33

Sony Michel $20

David Montgomery $18

Chris Carson $18

Julio Jones $32

Mike Evans $27

Allen Robinson $17

Dede Westbrook $13

Cole Beasley $6

Josh Gordon $6 

Vance McDonald $16 

Darren Waller $8

Steve Hauschka $3

Austin Seibert $3 

Carolina Panthers $4

New York Jets $3 

 
WR - Stefon Diggs - MIN/12 - $23
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/7 - $22
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/9 - $20
WR - Josh Gordon - NE/10 - $6
WR - D.J. Chark - JAX/10 - $5

Lockett is the WR1 in that offense… a WR1 for $19 is dirt cheap, even if they do want to run the ball every play.
But... You didn't pick Lockett?

 
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I learned posting my lineup early for advice is a bad move. There are two lineups that are very very similar to mine. Ones only difference is a $9 rb and the other has 1 different wr and 2 diff kickers. 

It was not a “chalk” lineup in the least. Only 4 total teams with my top 5 players and 2 of them are mirror images of mine that I posted 

Good luck to all 3 of us I guess 🤷‍♂️
🤷‍♂️ I already knew I know nothing. If someone wants to copy me, have at it. 

 
I wouldn't necessarily assume they copied you. With 12,000+ entries there are always going to be a few similar rosters, and certain players that are obviously popular. I doubt that half of the users who entered even read the forum on a regular basis, much less this specific thread. On the other hand, if they did copy you then I really wonder why...it's basically like copying someone's lotto ticket. Sort of a lose/lose strategy.
I’ll give randomness a shot for one of them with the different wr and kickers, but with the millions of possibilities and how many are in the tourney, one is a clear copy job. I hope my 9$ RB (Brieda) does better than his (hill)

 
I’ll give randomness a shot for one of them with the different wr and kickers, but with the millions of possibilities and how many are in the tourney, one is a clear copy job. I hope my 9$ RB (Brieda) does better than his (hill)
Can you post your lineup?

 
Over half the teams have 18-19 players.  

128 have 30 players, 85 have 29 players.  

The changes to the pricing really dictated a strategy change.  Not a fan of what FBG did.  With the number of highly owned players, many of us will be sweating the cut most weeks.  

 
KICKERS

Top 5 - Butker (2345), Prater (2066), Seibert (1582), Boswell (1554), Hauschka (1416)

Bottom 5 - Gould (106), Santos (143), Hopkins (158), Gano (187), Catanzaro (204)

- Most spent was $104 (also tied with one other for the most with 20, but spent $19 more)

- Least spent was $3 (151 owners)

 
Name Pos $ Bye Teams Team%
Baker Mayfield QB 19 7 901 7.1%
Jared Goff QB 14 9 2332 18.5%

Dalvin Cook RB 24 12 2746 21.8%
Devonta Freeman RB 23 9 771 6.1%
Jaylen Samuels RB 11 7 345 2.7%
Duke Johnson RB 9 10 5246 41.6%
Matt Breida RB 9 4 3903 31.0%
Ty Montgomery RB 5 4 699 5.5%
Tony Pollard RB 4 8 3108 24.7%

Jarvis Landry WR 18 7 507 4.0%
Jamison Crowder WR 11 4 657 5.2%
John Brown WR 9 6 1407 11.2%
Albert Wilson WR 9 5 388 3.1%
Adam Humphries WR 7 11 373 3.0%
Paul Richardson WR 7 10 159 1.3%
Josh Gordon WR 6 10 7177 56.9%

Evan Engram TE 18 11 1534 12.2%
Dallas Goedert TE 12 10 404 3.2%
Chris Herndon TE 8 4 1061 8.4%

Matt Prater K 4 5 2066 16.4%
Brandon McManus K 4 10 1060 8.4%
Steve Hauschka K 3 6 1416 11.2%

Baltimore Ravens TD 7 8 1053 8.4%
Atlanta Falcons TD 5 9 223 1.8%
Carolina Panthers TD 4 7 1319 10.5%


Happy with my balance of keeping up with the Joneses and low owned characters. Settled on the Baker/Landry stack very early, and Goff is my main man this year.

Goal at RB was to get a late season surge out of either Samuels/Montgomery/Pollard.

Barebones WR group, thought this was the place to go bargain shopping. Really surprised at Humphries low ownership, he was a straight up baller last year.

TE took a similar strategy as RB with a 'solid' #1 option and two hopeful late bloomers.

Bleh at K and D, but happy that Atlanta is so low owned, they were ravaged by injury last year.

 
Name Pos $ Bye Teams Team%
Baker Mayfield QB 19 7 901 7.1%
Jared Goff QB 14 9 2332 18.5%

Dalvin Cook RB 24 12 2746 21.8%
Devonta Freeman RB 23 9 771 6.1%
Jaylen Samuels RB 11 7 345 2.7%
Duke Johnson RB 9 10 5246 41.6%
Matt Breida RB 9 4 3903 31.0%
Ty Montgomery RB 5 4 699 5.5%
Tony Pollard RB 4 8 3108 24.7%

Jarvis Landry WR 18 7 507 4.0%
Jamison Crowder WR 11 4 657 5.2%
John Brown WR 9 6 1407 11.2%
Albert Wilson WR 9 5 388 3.1%
Adam Humphries WR 7 11 373 3.0%
Paul Richardson WR 7 10 159 1.3%
Josh Gordon WR 6 10 7177 56.9%

Evan Engram TE 18 11 1534 12.2%
Dallas Goedert TE 12 10 404 3.2%
Chris Herndon TE 8 4 1061 8.4%

Matt Prater K 4 5 2066 16.4%
Brandon McManus K 4 10 1060 8.4%
Steve Hauschka K 3 6 1416 11.2%

Baltimore Ravens TD 7 8 1053 8.4%
Atlanta Falcons TD 5 9 223 1.8%
Carolina Panthers TD 4 7 1319 10.5%


Happy with my balance of keeping up with the Joneses and low owned characters. Settled on the Baker/Landry stack very early, and Goff is my main man this year.

Goal at RB was to get a late season surge out of either Samuels/Montgomery/Pollard.

Barebones WR group, thought this was the place to go bargain shopping. Really surprised at Humphries low ownership, he was a straight up baller last year.

TE took a similar strategy as RB with a 'solid' #1 option and two hopeful late bloomers.

Bleh at K and D, but happy that Atlanta is so low owned, they were ravaged by injury last year.
Where did you look to see your team?  That layout is different than everyone else's, and I like it.

 
Where did you look to see your team?  That layout is different than everyone else's, and I like it.
Copy/Pasted into Excel, Added some columns, then copy/pasted it into a forum <> code block for fixed space type for layout.

 
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Here we go...

Lamar Jackson $12

Tom Brady $11 

Sam Darnold $9

Nick Chubb $25

Chris Carson $18

Duke Johnson $9

Justice Hill $9

Matt Breida $9

Devin Singletary $8

Chris Godwin $22

Tyler Lockett $19

Christian Kirk $15

Dede Westbrook $13

Curtis Samuel $12

Josh Gordon $6

Quincy Enunwa $6

T.J. Hockenson $10

Mark Andrews $9

Darren Waller $8

Jason Myers $5

Steve Hauschka $3

Austin Seibert $3

San Francisco 49ers $3

Cincinnati Bengals $3

New York Jets $3

 
No other team with my particular 4-stud combo of McCaffery, Julio, Kelce, and Kittle.  75 others have the Kelce/Kittle tandem.  I do think Andrews was likely a very good value but couldn't afford to spend on a 3rd TE after those two, needed $$ at the other spots.  I also pulled Hill out of my lineup as my last change... needed a few more bucks at QB and added Hardman as a flier with the leftovers.

General comment after looking at a couple dozen teams is that a lot of folks either don't seem to manage their bye weeks well (i.e., rostering 3 RBs, all with same bye week and/or having like 6+ players across roster with same bye week, most frequently in weeks 8, 10, and 12 from the small sample I looked at) and/or have them backloaded into later weeks... more likely to get to later weeks, but less likely to survive them.  I didn't explicitly avoid late weeks, but did discount players with week 11/12 byes a bit and is why I took McCaffery instead of Saquon.

Is there a place we can easily download scoring for last year's contest?  Would love to have a spreadsheet to analyze that had all players/defenses with their weekly scoring last year in this contest format... not so much to look for individuals, but I'm interested in some general trends like looking at scoring volatility by position and price point, etc.

Thanks in advance if anyone can point me to a resource for this!

 
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Over half the teams have 18-19 players.  

128 have 30 players, 85 have 29 players.  

The changes to the pricing really dictated a strategy change.  Not a fan of what FBG did.  With the number of highly owned players, many of us will be sweating the cut most weeks.  
I'm curious how many have the same top players. Not many with mine. 

 
Only entry with my 5 top "studs":

RB: Barkley and McCaffrey

WR: Thielen and Godwin

TE: Henry

😲
I have to think the Querier is not running properly....  I cannot see this being a unique lineup selection.  

I searched my QB Wentz, RB'sChubb & Ingram plus 2 WR Ridley & Jeffery and came up with 1 hit... my submission.   Maybe we are just outliers... 

 
I have to think the Querier is not running properly....  I cannot see this being a unique lineup selection.  

I searched my QB Wentz, RB'sChubb & Ingram plus 2 WR Ridley & Jeffery and came up with 1 hit... my submission.   Maybe we are just outliers... 
Every year the thread is full of posts like, "I'm the only entry with [some particular combo of 5 players]."  I think you're overestimating the likelihood that someone would match you on that many players.  

 
I have to think the Querier is not running properly....  I cannot see this being a unique lineup selection.  

I searched my QB Wentz, RB'sChubb & Ingram plus 2 WR Ridley & Jeffery and came up with 1 hit... my submission.   Maybe we are just outliers... 
I think it is working fine.  Jeffrey is only owned by 297, so that's why you are unique

 
Every year the thread is full of posts like, "I'm the only entry with [some particular combo of 5 players]."  I think you're overestimating the likelihood that someone would match you on that many players.  
I'm sure you are right about the uniqueness of 5+ players.  But I'm guessing there will be more uniqueness in general this year because of the (probably) smaller rosters due to the change in salary structure.

 
Over half the teams have 18-19 players.  

128 have 30 players, 85 have 29 players.  

The changes to the pricing really dictated a strategy change.  Not a fan of what FBG did.  With the number of highly owned players, many of us will be sweating the cut most weeks.  
Highest % of 18-19 person rosters since 2014.  

On the flip side, since the contest expanded to 18-30 person rosters in 2010, this year has the lowest-ever proportion of 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, and 30 man rosters.

 
I have never before had an 18 player roster in this contest and it feels so odd :lol:  I usually end up at 25+ and sharing a bunch of the "obvious" choices across the different positions.  This year I totally zagged and passed up what I thought were good values to go with 4 studs.  I convinced myself to try this strategy after Zeke signed and was largely influenced by the change in pricing.  We'll see how it plays out.

C. Wentz
M. Trubisky


I was on Winston for the longest time but ended up with this duo.  I really like Wentz this year and with so many weapons on offense I see a return to his 2017 form (and 2018 wasn't as bad as it seems especially when you consider he was still recovering from the knee and also had a back injury).  Trubisky is in the 2nd year of Nagy's offense, the Bears D should regress a bit, so I see a bit more scoring from Mitch.

S. Barkley
E. Elliott
A. Kamara


Three studs and nobody else.  Risky? Yes. Dumb?  Maybe.  Whatever, it should be interesting to see how this plays out.  Only 2 other teams have these three players but they have other RBs as well.  The health of these guys is critical obviously.

T. Lockett
D. Westrbook
J. Crowder
A. Wilson
T. Gabriel
T. McLaurin


Lockett is supposed to get the "Baldwin share of targets" and a clear #1 WR for $19 is good with me.
Westbrook plays the slot, Foles likes to throw to the slot, Westbrook is on my team.
Crowder has an early bye and should see plenty of targets out of the slot as well.
Wilson has an early bye, the Dolphins should be trailing a lot, and garbage time points count too!
Gabriel pairs with Mitch and he got 92 targets last year - for $5 that good enough for me.
McLaurin had the best projected points per dollar at the WR position and was teammates with Haskins at Ohio State.  The Redskins don't have any established stud WRs so when Haskins eventually starts he should lean on his ex teammate.

T. Kelce
M. Andrews


Kelce is the top TE and has a favorable schedule for TEs - yes please.
Andrews is arguable the best receiving option on the Ravens and also has a favorable schedule.

M. Gay
S. Hauschka
Z. Gonzalez


Three cheap kickers to diversify.

Steelers
Jets


Jets have an early bye and should be improved.  I really think the Steelers are going to be much improved on defense.  $6 is a little steep given my roster construction but whatever.

=====

Overall notes:  Once I chose to go with the 3 studs at RB I had to pass on all the obvious value RB players so that's not too big of a concern.  One glaring omission is that I left off J. Gordon... not really sure how that happened... he was on every lineup since we was reinstated and then through all the tinkering yesterday I somehow forgot to include him :shrug:  

 
Highest % of 18-19 person rosters since 2014.  

On the flip side, since the contest expanded to 18-30 person rosters in 2010, this year has the lowest-ever proportion of 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, and 30 man rosters.
This is kind of what I expected.  So what does that mean in terms of optimal roster construction?  My first thoughts are that a 30 man roster theoretically has a better chance to make the finals but also has a worse chance of winning once it gets there. 

 
I'm sure you are right about the uniqueness of 5+ players.  But I'm guessing there will be more uniqueness in general this year because of the (probably) smaller rosters due to the change in salary structure.
Exactly - Only 13 with K. Allen and Julio and then when I add Mccaffrey there is 2.  If I go Allen/Julio/Kittle - I'm the only one.

 
Hmm.  I am the only one with LeVeon, McCoy, L. Murray, Theilen and Carson Wentz.   I have a bunch of lower rent guys, but I expect these to be consistent producers.  

Quick analysis - I think McCoy is a steal behind that KC O Line and his with previous knowledge of the offense.  I think there will be some terminology to learn and some different plays to learn, but he has studied the whole playbook before.  For years.  And now he is coming back to it with new wisdom and, best of all for fantasy, desperation to get to the Super Bowl.  I think it may be one last top 5 year for McCoy.  

 
This is kind of what I expected.  So what does that mean in terms of optimal roster construction?  My first thoughts are that a 30 man roster theoretically has a better chance to make the finals but also has a worse chance of winning once it gets there. 
I don't think the 30 man rosters will do better this year.  You really had to scrap to find players to come up with 30 that would average $8.33 per player.  In years past $8 would net you people who you thought might be weekly contributors.  Outside of the obvious guys who popped up late, $8 netter you garbage this year.

 
Big Ben, Goff

Kamara, Carson, Duke J, Singletary,  Malcom Brown

JuJu, Lockett, MVS, Gallup, Gordon, Boykin, M Hardman

Kelce, Waller, G Everett

Gostkoski, Boswell

Patriots, Jets

May fortune shine on someone here.
Very similar to mine:

Roethlisberger
Goff


Two guys capable of 5-TD games at any time should give a good score each week. Hate going with only 2, but just couldn't swing 3 with the pricing this year. Contrary to popular belief, I think Ben will have a big year. Yeah, he'll miss AB, but the Steeler WR corp as a whole is much stronger this year--Switzer was the de facto #3 guy for most of last year. Ben now has 5 or 6 reliable targets he can throw to instead of just AB and JuJu.

Kamara
Carson
Ekeler
Duke Johnson
Singletary


Had Kerryon in there for most of my iterations, but finally decided I needed to upgrade WRs, so swapped him for Ekeler.  Wanted to add Brieda, but couldn't find the cash and couldn't justify weakening another position for a 6th RB. Thought about swapping Kamara for Zeke after he signed, but decided to just go with what I had. Hope I don't regret it.

Lockett
Westbrook
Fitzgerald
Gallup
Moncrief
MVS
Gordon


I'm a firm believer in quantity over quality for WRs.  With any kind of luck, I should get 2 or 3 usable scores each week from this bunch.  Relying on my strong belief that Moncrief is going to have an outstanding year now that he finally has a real QB.

Kelce
Herndon
Hurst


Kelce gives such a huge advantage over everyone else at the position that I felt he was a must-own.  Like nearly everyone else, I flirted with the Andrews/Waller combo as backups. In an effort to get away from the crowd a little, I moved from Andrews to Herndon, thinking (hoping) I won't need a 2nd TE score for the first 5 weeks and that after that he should score as well, if not better than, Andrews. Downgraded from Waller to Hurst to give me a few more bucks at WR.

Gay
Hauschka
Bullock


3 cheap kickers with 3 different byes. Nothing to see here.

Detroit
NYJ


Generally I go with 3 Ds, but cash was an issue. I decided 2 with early byes will give me the same benefit as 3 teams with late byes. Otherwise nothing to see here either.

 
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This is kind of what I expected.  So what does that mean in terms of optimal roster construction?  My first thoughts are that a 30 man roster theoretically has a better chance to make the finals but also has a worse chance of winning once it gets there. 
I turned this over a few times & I’m not convinced they do have a better chance to get there.

30-man roster has a lot of scrubs. ~$8 players. 

You’d need to get above average performances out of 3 scrubs at WR every week, for example. 

And you’re going against 18 m-man teams with 3-4-5 studs at the position, so to be in the top weekly % & advance, you’d also need to have below average performances from those teams.

It’s a lot to ask, statistically speaking. The odds would seem to be stacked against a favorable outcome for a 30-man roster. 

There are outliers of course - and very likely the team with a low-rent player or 3 is going to have that as the difference maker when it comes down to the end. 

But a team of all low-rent players? Seems like a tall task to make it to the finish line. I know that’s the whole point of best ball; but blood from a turnip & all that.  :shrug:

 
QUARTERBACKS

Top 5 - Jackson (5542), Brady (2363), Goff (2332), Winston (1997), Mahomes (1672)

Bottom 10 (because many were inconsequential) - Driskel (3), Griffin (4), Luck (5), Lock (8), Taylor (9), Tannehill (20), Newton (101), Haskins (125), Mariota (159), Rosen (165)

- Most spent was $204

- Least spent was $4

 
Kyler Murray $16 / Jared Goff $14

Mark Ingram $20 / Chris Carson $18 /Justice Hill $9 0.00 / Matt Breida $9 / Devin Singletary $8

Tyler Boyd $20 / Dede Westbrook $13 / Curtis Samuel $12 / John Brown $9 / Marquise Goodwin $8 / Randall Cobb $6 / Trey Quinn $6 / Cole Beasley $6 / Josh Gordon $6 / Mecole Hardman $5

 Zach Ertz $24 / Dallas Goedert $12 / Mark Andrews $9

Harrison Butker $6 / Steve Hauschka $3

New England Patriots $6 / Dallas Cowboys $5 

 
This is the first time I went with an 18 man roster in this contest, after not placing in the money for years now with 25+ team rosters, I decided to swing for the fences this year.

Baker Mayfield
Josh Rosen


I'm obviously betting on Mayfield being a stud and hoping that Rosen wins the starting job by week 8 when Fitz does what he do.  I flipped between this and Jamison/Brady combo.  With Mayfield looking to be a top 5, possibly higher QB this year, this was great value, IMO.

Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey
Devonta Freeman
Duke Johnson
Devin Singletary


This is the "studliest" RB roster I've had in this contest to date.  Banking on Freeman to return to form and either Duke or Singletary to make a splash week to week. 

Mike Evans
Tyler Lockett
Mike Williams
Donte Moncrief
Josh Gordon


I felt like Lockett was the best value as a WR.  With this lineup, I have 3 solid weekly performers and can swing on Moncrief.  We'll see what happens with Gordon, worth the low cost (obviously said most of the contest)

T.J. Hockenson
Jason Witten


Spending all my $$ at RB left me challenged at TE.  I'm a Lions homer and think Hockenson has potential to be something special..  Hope he shows some of that this year.  Witten was the best value with what I had left for $$

Matt Prater
Austin Seibert


Spent absolute minimum here.  Hope Seibert keeps his job  :)

Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns


Both D's have a ton of potential, should be a good combo.

 
Where do you get the historical data for this?  I'm looking to do some analysis on past years as well, though ideally I need it broken down by player with their price that year and weekly scores.  I can scrape if needed... is there a way to access the results from past years contests?
I scraped it all.

 

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