JoeSteeler
Footballguy
ended +8.9 over the cut line...going to be very, very close but not feeling good about it
Line will probably move 8-10 tonight I would think
Line will probably move 8-10 tonight I would think
I need Ekeler to score low to have a chanceCut line sits at 137.30 with only Monday Night to go...
QB - Rivers (112), Mahomes (94)
RB - Ekeler (435), Thompson (267), Jackson (100), McCoy (47), Williams (12), Gordon (1)
WR - Hardman (195), Williams (161), Hill (111), Watkins (79), Allen (34), Benjamin (20), Robinson (9)
TE - Kelce (283), Henry (245)
K - Butker (346), Badgley (149)
D - KC (115), LAC (50)
I have been eliminated for the 3rd time (weeks 7, 10, 11). Note to self - stop choosing David Johnson for this contest.
The tool I built for this is actually set up to answer exactly these kinds of questions, but TBH I've found it too much of a pain in the butt to go through and figure out who's in and who's out each week, especially with the return from IR option that exists now. But maybe I'll try to figure it out this week, since you asked so nicely.Stray Doug said:On that note, something interesting for the guys who run the numbers and provide those great analyses every week, would be nice to see some takes on the "$ on bye" and possibly "$ injured" each week.
I.e., what was the average $ on bye this week? I only had $6 (Gordon), but also had $25 idle due to injury (Kittle). I'm sure there might be some more interesting takes than just average $, but that seems like one that could probably be computed without much effort. Would be interesting to do an X-Y plot of "$ on bye/injured" and "survival rate"... though calculating the injured amount takes a bit more effort, and somewhat subjective (if a guy was technically active but only in case needed in emergency and wound up sitting). But definitely could be some lessons learned for next year. I know I took a gamble with Kelce and Ekeler having late byes but liked their value too much and figured there were a lot of other appealing players (Mahomes, Cook, etc.) with week 12 bye so I wouldn't be the only one.
That's way more players than I had this week - scoring over 180. You never knowSolomon Grundy said:Well, with a rash of byes coming up and now Marlon Mack out, my run here will end in week 12 barring some kind of miracle. I have only the following players going next week (out of a 30-player roster!!):
QB: Lamar Jackson (Stafford out, Rivers bye)
RB: Duke Johnson, Devin Singletary, Malcolm Brown (Mack out, Ekeler bye, Darwin Thompson bye)
WR: Chris Godwin, Ted Ginn, Josh Gordon, Willie Snead, Taylor Gabriel, Josh Reynolds, Chris Conley (Fitzgerald bye, Kirk bye, Hardman bye, Hogan out, Benjamin out/bye)
TE: Vance McDonald, Delanie Walker, Mark Andrews
K: Ryan Succop, Matt Gay (Zane Gonzalez bye)
DEF: Titans, Panthers, 49ers
It's been super-fun and this is by far the furthest I've made it. Next year I would probably take one or two more RBs and fewer WRs, but I love the way I built this team.
Congratulations on getting through next week already!moving the chains, onto week 13...
149.6Can someone post the cutline after the game tonight? I appreciate it.
And I’m glad he didn’t otherwise I’d have lost a league I won. Maybe two if Money Badger tied it and kicked another FG.Looks like Henry’s points pushed me forward. Wishing that Rivers would have targeted him again at the goal line to tie the game and force overtime.
Made it thanks to Ekeler's 17.2Lehigh98 said:I'm at 145.2 + (Ekeler - 5.4)
Looks like it will be close, how much does the line normally move for MNF? O/U is 53
Careful what you wish for... sometimes it may just scoop up a few extra souls!I’ve got Cook and Diggs on bye next week but still feel good about my chances. Would love to see a high rate of Cook owners get bounced to make him more unique.
Thought this week would be bad having minimal players, but some came through with high scores and cleared the cut by plenty.Stayin' alive.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 used
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Jameis Winston $13 14.00 17.30 36.30 42.15 23.50 21.10 BYE 30.35 29.55 25.90 25.95 ____.4
Lamar Jackson $12 46.80 37.60 23.95 34.95 18.05 33.00 24.75 BYE 32.25 41.65 43.70_____7
Kerryon Johnson $23 7.20 15.80 10.80 16.70 BYE 13.10 2.30 INJ INJ INJ INJ___.___4 IR/OUT
Josh Jacobs $20 23.80 9.90 4.40 11.80 27.80 BYE 14.90 9.10 24.00 17.60 13.90_____6
Chris Carson $18 23.10 10.20 5.60 16.50 18.80 23.90 8.90 15.00 14.30 17.60 BYE..........9
Matt Breida $9 3.70 13.70 9.80 BYE 26.40 8.30 4.10 5.50 10.20 3.50 INJ...........3
Devin Singletary $8 12.30 11.70 INJ INJ INJ BYE 2.60 12.90 21.50 6.50 8.40.........3
Mike Evans $27 4.80 10.10 45.00 18.90 0.00 18.60 BYE 42.80 36.00 12.20 10.90.........7
Dante Pettis $16 1.70 0.80 12.00 BYE 2.10 7.50 0.00 1.50 9.10 0.00 0.00.........0 What a waste
Courtland Sutton $14 19.00 8.00 13.70 24.20 19.20 11.60 14.70 10.20 17.30 BYE 19.20........8
Curtis Samuel $12 6.20 14.30 16.30 6.30 7.40 23.80 BYE 8.60 16.40 13.50 6.50........6
John Brown $9 25.30 14.20 9.50 11.90 12.50 BYE 19.30 10.40 11.60 12.70 34.70........8
Josh Gordon $6 16.30 3.90 14.40 7.60 10.90 1.70 INJ INJ INJ 4.70 BYE.........3
Jaron Brown $4 0.00 0.00 6.00 8.00 5.60 17.90 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 BYE.........3
David Njoku $15 15.70 INJ INJ INJ INJ INJ BYE INJ INJ INJ INJ .........0 IR/OUT
Austin Hooper $15 21.20 9.40 27.60 26.50 14.60 29.70 16.60 21.50 0.00 13.70 INJ..........8
Darren Waller $8 17.50 15.30 33.60 15.80 9.90 0.00 35.10 10.10 8.20 8.50 15.10........9
Brandon McManus $4 10.90 7.50 4.00 6.30 10.60 14.20 0.00 7.00 7.30 BYE 13.80........5
Daniel Carlson $3 6.00 4.00 2.00 7.00 7.10 BYE 7.50 7.40 7.20 9.00 5.00.........3
Steve Hauschka $3 6.30 4.00 8.90 5.60 2.00 0.00 14.70 1.00 7.20 2.00 15.50........3
Dallas Cowboys $5 5.00 1.00 5.00 7.00 2.00 4.00 11.00 BYE 17.00 1.00 3.00.........3
San Francisco 49ers $3 23.00 6.00 6.00 BYE 12.00 6.00 5.00 13.00 3.00 19.00 14.00........7
New York Jets $3 15.00 5.00 17.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 8.00.........1
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TOTAL........................... 226.90 146.30 219.70 186.65 176.30 191.80 168.95 173.65 194.25 165.45 181.90
CUTOFF.......................... 0.00 140.00 154.30 142.45 147.35 142.30 125.85 135.99 155.15 152.40 149.60
Stealing your format, to see how common my team is...A massive 50% cut looms this week for the survivors. Colts at the Texans kicks it off...
QB - Watson (25) - All 25 owners have other options playing this week, including 18 with Lamar. That, accompanied by his 2.5% ownership, will make him pretty irrelevant.
RB - Johnson (586), Hyde (18), Mack (7), Hines (3) - No RB costing less than $10 has more FP than Hyde, but his 4.97 % survival rate is well below the overall contest average of 7.98%. Mack is "handing" some extra touches to Hines this week, but only 3 entries will benefit. Duke and Carlos have taken turns outscoring each other (5 to 5), but Carlos has been the more consistent scorer.
WR - Hopkins (34), Fuller (31), Stills (15), Coutee (9), Campbell (3), Hilton (2) - Ownership numbers are really dwindling.
TE - Doyle (33), Thomas (5), Ebron (2) - Not gonna be much from the TE position.
K - Vinatieri (27), Fairbairn (25) - Both were uncommon from the start.
D - IND (31), HOU (23) - see Kickers above.
Fun facts - even if all players listed suit up (which ain't happening), they would equal exactly half (293) of the Duke ownership. Also, Duke is the only one with a survival rate over the contest average.
Here you go... http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/contest_querier_form.phpwhere do you guys get ownership numbers?
I've bolded your projected starters, based on FBG's early rankings. Overall, your team looks pretty healthy. Good luckStealing your format, to see how common my team is...
QB - Lamar Jackson (753), Tom Brady (179), Sam Darnold (185)
RB - Chris Carson (630), Austin Ekeler (312), Duke Johnson (586), Matt Breida (425), Devin Singletary (559)
WR - Kenny Golladay (55), Tyler Lockett (499), Robby Anderson (26), Dede Westbrook (345), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (285), Michael Gallup (394), Josh Gordon (680)
TE - O.J. Howard (69), Dallas Goedert (32), Mark Andrews (604)
K - Matt Prater (229), Matt Gay (133), Austin Seibert (174)
D - Seattle Seahawks (213), Carolina Panthers (154), New York Jets (231)
Uh... let's go Brady, Golladay, Anderson, OJ, and Goedert I guess.
Really good uniqueness in a lot of positions. Such low numbers on guys like Dak, CMC and Kupp are going to really work in your favor.QB - Josh Allen (110), Dak Prescott (79)
RB - Chris Carson (630), Devin Singletary (559), Matt Breida (425), David Montgomery (124), Christian McCaffrey (123), Ty Montgomery (61)
WR - Michael Gallup (394), Dede Westbrook (345), John Brown (276), Chris Godwin (202), Cooper Kupp (120), Mohamed Sanu (17)
TE - Mark Andrews (604), Darren Waller (489), David Njoku (11)
K - Brandon McManus (100), Ryan Succop (24)
DST - Kansas City Chiefs (73), Atlanta Falcons (23)
I REALLY like the low numbers on Sanu and my QBs. Njoku could be a difference maker for me if I can make the top 250.
Thoughts?
I like yours a little more than mine.QB - Josh Allen (110), Dak Prescott (79)
RB - Chris Carson (630), Devin Singletary (559), Matt Breida (425), David Montgomery (124), Christian McCaffrey (123), Ty Montgomery (61)
WR - Michael Gallup (394), Dede Westbrook (345), John Brown (276), Chris Godwin (202), Cooper Kupp (120), Mohamed Sanu (17)
TE - Mark Andrews (604), Darren Waller (489), David Njoku (11)
K - Brandon McManus (100), Ryan Succop (24)
DST - Kansas City Chiefs (73), Atlanta Falcons (23)
I REALLY like the low numbers on Sanu and my QBs. Njoku could be a difference maker for me if I can make the top 250.
Thoughts?
You smashed it out of the park. With your lack of uniqueness you are a lock for the final 250. Your avoidance of injuries and major busts should make this a very competitive entry for a nice cashQB - Josh Allen (110), Dak Prescott (79)
RB - Chris Carson (630), Devin Singletary (559), Matt Breida (425), David Montgomery (124), Christian McCaffrey (123), Ty Montgomery (61)
WR - Michael Gallup (394), Dede Westbrook (345), John Brown (276), Chris Godwin (202), Cooper Kupp (120), Mohamed Sanu (17)
TE - Mark Andrews (604), Darren Waller (489), David Njoku (11)
K - Brandon McManus (100), Ryan Succop (24)
DST - Kansas City Chiefs (73), Atlanta Falcons (23)
I REALLY like the low numbers on Sanu and my QBs. Njoku could be a difference maker for me if I can make the top 250.
Thoughts?
Nice review of the hindsight that goes into the building of a competitive roster... we all have our own perspectives and I fell victim to some of the same decisions as you!Why I passed on certain players this year...
QB - Lamar Jackson - Thought he was gonna be useless as a passer, and get hurt as a runner. Boy was I wrong. Only 3 QB's have more passing TD's. One of only 5 QB's with 3K combined passing/rushing, and would be a top 10 RB on rushing stats alone. I opted for Goff over him, because I wanted Winston, and figured the Winston/Jackson combo was too volatile. Dak Prescott - see CMC below. With the $2 saved, I can pass on Dak and take the surefire Goff.
RB - CMC - Why would I spend $35 when I can save $2 and roster Zeke? And yes, I bought into the "we won't overuse CMC again" hype. Dalvin Cook - He had the same bye as another stud RB I wanted more... David Johnson. Oops. Chris Carson - had too much invested in week 11 already with Lockett & Engram. Lockett has been great, and Evan has scored well when on the field.
WR - Overall, I liked my WR corps (Julio, Godwin, Lockett, Fitz, Gordon). They carried my team.
TE - Darren Waller - ran out of money after choosing Engram & Andrews.
K - Liked my trio of $3 kickers. They did fine.
D - Went very light with NYG/NYJ combo, but they were great together.
Overall, my downfall was putting too much trust in the Zeke/DJ duo. When DJ faltered, I didn't have enough firepower to back him up (Duke, Breida, Singletary).
Looking forward to the postseason contest now. Basically if you pick the 2 teams to make it to the SB and blow your wad on them, you have a real good shot. Just have to make it past the first week if you choose the top seeds, because they will be on a bye. Last year I talked myself into a DAL/LAC SB, mostly because they weren't top seeds.In a similar trend.... thoughts on who/why and what thoughts tiped me over ..FWIW... Knocked out Week 5 by 0.25 pts.
QB: Wentz ($19) & Winston ($7) - Really wanted 3 QB... initial roster was Wilson ($17), Brees ($16) & D Jones ($4) or Wilson, L Jackson ($12) & Carr ($9). Told myself Sea had no real offense or WR, Jackson was 1 awkward run from IR & Brees was a budget decision to add WR5.
RB: Chubb ($25), Ingram ($20), L Murray ($16) & M Sanders ($15), A Mattison ($6) - lots my loved this RB corp fast when I realized my final roster did not have Cook..., saw Sanders as my late season flier. There were 2 RB's I wanted but could not fit due to budget -Carson ($18) & Cook ($24). I really wanted them. Toyed with dropping boty Murray & Sanders for 1 of them. Avoided Big 5 for budget/value concerns limiting other critical needs. Really wanted to add Singletary ($8), and Montgomery ($5). Singletary was late season valueas I figured Buff often had good def and was playing Miam & NYJ 2x each & Bell ($29) was unpredictable ... like cheap handcuffs.
WR: Ridley ($20), Jeffery ($18), Anderson ($17), Mike Williams ($16), Sammy Watkins ($12), Dede Westbrook ($10) - only other player I wanted was Lockett, but went Alshon over him since Phl offense would be higher scoring! HA! Tried to fit C Samuel ($12) & Gallop ($10) but figured more high value players than fliers was a better decision. Decision to have a 19-20 roster team over 24 to increase the "firepower" only to have all my gunpowder get wet week 5!
That's all I got time for.... just a small sign of my insanity!
damnOut this week by less than 1 point (.7). One more extra pt from any of my kickers. The dropped pass last night from Mike Williams. Oh well, it was a run.
@Jayrok I am sorry for your downfall! but I feel your pain... I was eliminated in Week 5 by a grand total of 0.35 pts! That is just falling forward an extra time instead of backwards!Out this week by less than 1 point (.7). One more extra pt from any of my kickers. The dropped pass last night from Mike Williams. Oh well, it was a run.
I absolutely disagree with your take, but hey I've never won it so what do I know...the toughest week is week 2 since you can only score two players from any one team...Looking forward to the postseason contest now. Basically if you pick the 2 teams to make it to the SB and blow your wad on them, you have a real good shot. Just have to make it past the first week if you choose the top seeds, because they will be on a bye. Last year I talked myself into a DAL/LAC SB, mostly because they weren't top seeds.
Well, you can only use 2 players from each team for every week, except the SB, where all players finally count. If you can avoid spending alot on the 4 teams that lose in week 1, you will be set up well for week 2 onward.I absolutely disagree with your take, but hey I've never won it so what do I know...the toughest week is week 2 since you can only score two players from any one team...
Yeah it's tough when it's that close. This week was my lowest output too. It may have been week 5 that I had my biggest scare, can't remember. Was cruising most weeks. Guess it doesn't matter if it's 0.35 or 0.7 or 70. You're out when your're out.Birdie048 said:@Jayrok I am sorry for your downfall! but I feel your pain... I was eliminated in Week 5 by a grand total of 0.35 pts! That is just falling forward an extra time instead of backwards!