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Plant Your Flag - Your Player / Team / Situation for 2020 (1 Viewer)

Stompin' Tom Connors said:
@Joe Bryant - let's hear your specific projections and numbers for Brady and the Bucs. Or do you consider Dodds' ranking (or any other other staffer - Henry, Tremblay, Woods) as your definition of "excel?"

I think the Bucs take a leap forward with Brady but they will face competition in their own division with another win-now team in the Saints, so I don't think they are a runaway division leader going into the playoffs, and between these two and the 9ers, I don't think it's going to be easy for the Bucs to reach the big show. To me, I think Brady reaches Top 10, but just -- 4100 yards, 26 TDs, 13 INTs

As for my call, Jacobs wins the rushing title -- surpasses 1300 yards and 10 TDs.
Click to expand...
I see it right in line with this.

From: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections.php?projforwhat=qb&projector=996&profile=0

Brady 4437 yards and 29 TDs and 11 Int for QB7

Newton 3188 yards and 20 TDs and 13 Int for QB25

I like Newton and I'm pulling for him. I just don't have confidence there for him. 
 

What do you see for Newton @Stompin' Tom Connors?

 
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Fournette = 2020 version of prime NE Leg Blount

Daverek Carr finishes as a top 10 fantasy QB 

Darren Waller finishes as the #1 fantasy TE (in PPG, to account for injuries/covid)

Dak Prescott - 35+ passing TDs

LAC = bust city

Kareem Hunt is a top 10 fantasy RB during weeks 15+16

Preston Williams - 10+ TDs

Jerry's Jeudy - 80+ catches

Baltimore defeats Oakland Las Vegas in AFC title game, after Raiders upset Chiefs in divisional round

 
Joe Bryant said:
I see it right in line with this.

From: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections.php?projforwhat=qb&projector=996&profile=0

Brady 4437 yards and 29 TDs and 11 Int for QB7

Newton 3188 yards and 20 TDs and 13 Int for QB25

I like Newton and I'm pulling for him. I just don't have confidence there for him. 
 

What do you see for Newton @Stompin' Tom Connors?
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Just curious . . . Why do you guys have Cam with so few carries (60)? He’s averaged 120 carries a season. I see Cam more in the 550-600 rushing yards range and 7 or 8 TD rushing. Using your passing totals, that alone would get Cam up to QB7. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just curious . . . Why do you guys have Cam with so few carries (60)? He’s averaged 120 carries a season. I see Cam more in the 550-600 rushing yards range and 7 or 8 TD rushing. Using your passing totals, that alone would get Cam up to QB7. 
Click to expand...
Could well be. We'll see.

What are your passing yards and passing TDs for Newton? 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Cam ends the year ranked higher than Brady.
Asiasi ends the year ranked higher than Gronk.
NE wins more games than Tampa.
NE advances farther than Tampa.
Click to expand...
The hate is strong with this one.

 
The AJ and DJ twins are all top 12 WRs.

AJ Brown

AJ Green

DJ Moore

DJ Chark

Note, the JJ twins will not be:  JJ Arcega-Whiteside and JJ Nelson

Extended, the AJ and DJ triplets will do well.  David Johnson and Aaron Jones top 12 RBs.

 
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Joe Bryant said:
Could well be. We'll see.

What are your passing yards and passing TDs for Newton? 
Click to expand...
New England offense . . .

Passing:
Newton - 325-500-3340-23-15
Other QBs - 20-35-250-2-1
Total: 345-535-3590-25-16

Rushing
Michel - 200-840-5
Newton - 110-600-8
Harris - 100-440-4
White - 60-240-1
Burkhead - 55-260-3
Byrd - 5-50-1
Harry - 5-40-0
Edelman - 5-30-0
Olszewski - 5-25-0
Johnson - 5-15-0
Total: 550-2540-22

Receiving
Edelman - 65-700-4
White - 75-660-4
Asiasi - 45-550-5
Harry - 35-425-3
Byrd - 30-400-3
Burkhead - 20-160-1
Harris - 20-150-1
Meyers - 15-200-1
Michel - 10-60-0
Johnson - 5-35-0
Total: 345-3590-23

I heard an interesting discussion this afternoon about teams facing 7 men in the box. The last season Cam played the whole season (2018), CAR ranked #1 in yards per play, expected yards per play, exceeding expected yards per play, and yards per rushing attempt in those situations. NE last year, on the other hand, ranked last in all of the same categories. That may not matter much if NE is not as effective in those same situations  as CAR was (or if Tampa doesn't see many 7 man fronts) . . . but I at least found it worthy of discussion.

Anyway . . . that was my first pass at Patriots projections. I will let you calculate where Newton would rank if he were added into your projections. Other than Cam, not a ton of guys that will move the needle much for fantasy purposes. Note that I have Asiasi projected almost exactly the same as Dodds does.




 

 
toppshelff said:
The AJ and DJ twins are all top 12 WRs.

AJ Brown

AJ Green

DJ Moore

DJ Chark

Note, the JJ twins will not be:  JJ Arcega-Whiteside and JJ Nelson

Extended, the AJ and DJ triplets will do well.  David Johnson and Aaron Jones top 12 RBs.
Click to expand...
What about the other JJs?

Julio, Juju, Jefferson, Jeudy

 
CMC sees at least a 20% drop-off in production across the board in 2020, if not more. First time HC, first time OC , a former college guy/passing game coordinator suddenly thrust into the OC role, for a franchise that the Vegas oddsmakers have as the 3rd worst team in the NFL in 2020  tied with Bengals at 5.5 win o/u. We're CLEARLY underestimating how good the Turners were/are at getting max value from RBs. Not sold on the new kids on the block turning Carolina into a 10 win team - there will be huge growing pains here. I just don't see how CMC can finish anywhere near where he was last season. Teddy Bridgewater and his career 38/25 TD/int ratio with his 173 career passing yards/gm make me think defenses stack the box and dare Cap't INT to sling it. It's one thing to babysit the QB position in N.O. when you're throwing the MT and Kamara and Co., but now you have DJ Moore? oof.good luck with that.

stats for 2020: 1110 yards, 11 rushing Td, 85 rec, 680 yards, 3 TD.

Nick Chubb is going to kill it this season in a Kubiak style offense that has a history of producing top RBs. 

315 carries/1575 ( 5 per carry),  15 TD, recs= 37/245, 2TD. Hunt stays in the garage as nothing more than a show car that's never driven - because Cle trades him to NE/Jax/Hou,/SD, etc..

A Mattison is the fantasy football league winner of the year. NO WAY the ever-brittle potato chip Dalvin Cook lasts more than 3-4 games without a hangnail or a wart that costs him the 2020 season. this guy is the most overrated player in fantasy football in 2020 - by far. how can people reliably pick a guy like Cook as the de facto 4th or 5th RB off he board in fantasy drafts?! he barely avg'd 50 yards/gm final 8 weeks of 2019. his stats went from 5.7 yards/carry games 1-4, 4.86 games 5-8, 3.33 games 9-12, 3.30 games 13-16, with 9 rush TD first 8 weeks and just 4 TD the remainder of the season. what am I missing here I'm sorry, perhaps  I didn't get the Cook memo.

Cook 2020: 175 carries, 4.5 per, 787 yards, 6 TD, 37 recs, 320, 2TD. statistically , you take 60% of guys who finish in top 10 at RB and toss them aside the following year - they don't make it back to the top 10 list. Cook is my #1 guy to miss the mark in 2020.

David Johnson FLOPS big time in Houston. 

Brandin Cooks still keeps chugging along as a top 12 WR like he had for 3 of the past 4 seasons prior to 2019. Who else is Hou going to throw to, Coutee? Stills? LOL. Fuller? he's hurt more than Dalvin Cook! 

85/1275/12 - loooong ball returns to Houston with the best long ball WR in football. No running game, no reliable WR on the other end.no TE. do people think Hopkins' 2 million recs last year are going to disappear with him, that the team suddenly shifts coaching philosophy?? never underestimate a coach on the fringe of being fired, sticking with the guy he traded for in Cooks as the replacement for the ever-awesome Hopkins. 

Brady isn't capable of throwing 45-50x/gm as will be required in TB because this team will be in shootout after shootout yet again, just like last season. pinball football with a 60 yr old guy at the helm, on a team that gave up 47 sacks last season and got Winston killed. and somehow he's going to be better than he was in NE??? I don't see it. TB12 is going to look worse than the noodle-armed version of  Eli. no zip means INT and pick-6 lotto!  Brady was off last season, WAYYY off, especially the 2nd half of 2019. That trend will continue

3200 yards, 20 TD, 12 int.  if he's lucky.

Conversely, I think Cam has a good to great season in NE - plenty of rushing yards. Joshy McD's shiny new toy.Superman is back. 

 
JuJu Smith-Schuster has a 2020 like folks expected his 2019 to be.

Contract year, worked with a trainer all off-season, Roethlisberger potential to throw for 5K, Dionte drawing coverage on the other side, and a 3rd round ADP.

JuJu will be a top 3 WR and I’m here for that. 

 
Joe Bryant said:
I see it right in line with this.

From: https://subscribers.footballguys.com/myfbg/myviewprojections.php?projforwhat=qb&projector=996&profile=0

Brady 4437 yards and 29 TDs and 11 Int for QB7

Newton 3188 yards and 20 TDs and 13 Int for QB25

I like Newton and I'm pulling for him. I just don't have confidence there for him. 
 

What do you see for Newton @Stompin' Tom Connors?
Click to expand...
Thanks, Joe -- I'm with you on Newton. I think he's been a hugely talented QB in this league but I don't have confidence in him this year. He has a couple of hurdles that will make for a rough go, including:

1) Proving he is fully persistent nagging injuries that limited his play

2) Not having a particularly great squad around him. Edelman is fantastic but hitting a point where age brings decline. N'Keal Harry seems the real deal but needs to prove it at this level. They have two rookie TEs. Michel took a step back last year and while they have depth at RB, there are still unknowns with Damien Harris and a middling O-line.

3) Cam isn't Brady. A big part of what made NE successful was Brady making it work, even with a subpar team around him. We've seen Cam operate with a sub-par team (outside of McCaffrey) around him and try to put it on his own shoulders. It often wasn't pretty, and I don't think he suddenly can operate a Belichick offense and play off the D in the way Brady can, or even work with new players in the midst of rebuilding positional groups like Brady could.

There are some things going for Cam -- Belichick is one. A still-questionable division is another. But in the end, I see Cam just cracking 3K and being just shy of 20 passing TDs (with an uptick of INTs - 15 or more), falling outside the Top 25.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
Thanks, Joe -- I'm with you on Newton. I think he's been a hugely talented QB in this league but I don't have confidence in him this year. He has a couple of hurdles that will make for a rough go, including:

1) Proving he is fully persistent nagging injuries that limited his play

2) Not having a particularly great squad around him. Edelman is fantastic but hitting a point where age brings decline. N'Keal Harry seems the real deal but needs to prove it at this level. They have two rookie TEs. Michel took a step back last year and while they have depth at RB, there are still unknowns with Damien Harris and a middling O-line.

3) Cam isn't Brady. A big part of what made NE successful was Brady making it work, even with a subpar team around him. We've seen Cam operate with a sub-par team (outside of McCaffrey) around him and try to put it on his own shoulders. It often wasn't pretty, and I don't think he suddenly can operate a Belichick offense and play off the D in the way Brady can, or even work with new players in the midst of rebuilding positional groups like Brady could.

There are some things going for Cam -- Belichick is one. A still-questionable division is another. But in the end, I see Cam just cracking 3K and being just shy of 20 passing TDs (with an uptick of INTs - 15 or more), falling outside the Top 25.
Click to expand...
Thanks Buddy.

However this goes, it's fascinating drama. The "who was responsible for the success?" drama is an age old story. I think the truth is likely somewhere in the middle but this will be super fun to watch play out. 

 
Homerism but:

Ben is healthy and the Steelers offense returns to top 5 form. Ben, Conner, Johnson, and Ebron are all fantasy values. A top 5 offense paired with the best D in the league sends the Steelers to the Super Bowl.  

 
https://twitter.com/Football_Guys/status/1303683591386402817?s=20

My heart:  My Heart: Cam is going to GO OFF in New England and show what the offense can be with a dynamic mobile QB finally.

My head: 

@32BeatWriters·

“During camp in a limited scheme environment, Newton completed less than 60 percent of his passes, threw five picks, and took several would-be sacks waiting for someone to get open outside of Julian Edelman.”
Click to expand...

 
Mack and Taylor get 2000 yards rushing between them this season (if it is a full season).

 
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Chicago wins 11 games and narrowly takes the division over the Vikings.

Buffalo wins 12 and is the only team in the AFC East over .500.

 
On September 27th, in the fourth quarter of a routing of the Browns by the WFT, zombies will descend upon the field, hungry for brains. Antonio Gibson will lead a charge of good-willed football players and take down 123 zombies while the others manage to kill 35.  Kareem Hunt will outkill Nick Chubb by seven zombies. The players will fight hard, but it will ultimately come down to Gibson standing alone. He will look to his left to see Baker Mayfield lying on his back with five zombies poised to finish him. Gibson will attack, but the five zombies are simply too strong. Just when all hope is lost, Jermichael Finley will hop onto the field from some end zone seats he won in a radio contest and help Antonio fight the last five zombies to end the battle. Baker, Finley and Gibson will start to high five, but realize that’s the wrong thing to do during COVID-19 and opt for elbow bumps instead. The survivors in the stands rejoice.  
 

After investigation, it will be revealed that Mike Shanahan had released a strain of alien virus that created the zombies in an attempt to create a plloy to motivate Tatum Bell.

 
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Joe Bryant said:
https://twitter.com/Football_Guys/status/1303683591386402817?s=20

My heart:  My Heart: Cam is going to GO OFF in New England and show what the offense can be with a dynamic mobile QB finally.

My head: 

@32BeatWriters·
Click to expand...
What's funny about this is that I have been providing regular and daily updates on how terrible the NE offense has looked in camp. Yet you saw what I predicted.
One of the reasons the offense struggled in practice is the defense essentially knew the small amount of plays the offense was running. And also the defense should
still be very good. At a minimum, they will again have one of the best secondaries. The front 7 is a work in progress.

The examples I cited in other treads of NE having very few strong skill players yet still won a lot of games was the 2001 Patriots (when Brady wasn't doing much). And Carolina didn't exactly have a ton of all Pro Bowl talent working with Cam in 2015. BB has shown he could win with limited weapons on offense and a good defense. Certainly there have been a lot of changes on defense, so that part is hard to predict.

Trust me, NE could really go off the rails if things don't work out and they suffer the same number of injuries as they did last year. However, NE usually has a healthy year after a year with a ton of guys going to IR. Certainly we will have to see how things turn out . . .

 
-jb- said:
On September 27th, in the fourth quarter of a routing of the Browns by the WFT, zombies will descend upon the field, hungry for brains. Antonio Gibson will lead a charge of good-willed football players and take down 123 zombies while the others manage to kill 35.  Kareem Hunt will outkill Nick Chubb by seven zombies. The players will fight hard, but it will ultimately come down to Gibson standing alone. He will look to his left to see Baker Mayfield lying on his back with five zombies poised to finish him. Gibson will attack, but the five zombies are simply too strong. Just when all hope is lost, Jermichael Finley will hop onto the field from some end zone seats he won in a radio contest and help Antonio fight the last five zombies to end the battle. Baker, Finley and Gibson will start to high five, but realize that’s the wrong thing to do during COVID-19 and opt for elbow bumps instead. The survivors in the stands rejoice.  
 

After investigation, it will be revealed that Mike Shanahan had released a strain of alien virus that he was attempting to use as a plloy to motivate Tatum Bell.
Click to expand...
This one may be a bit too specific. 🤔 

 
I agree with others on David Johnson, but for a different reason : He will be given every opportunity to prove the trade wasn't lopsided. BOB is nothing but stubborn. He'll get his chances and if, big if, he can stay healthy, the volume alone might rocket him back up the rankings.

My craziest take I could see coming true : Christian Kirk is the top standard scoring WR on the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. Almost would go PPR too, but think Hop eats a lot of underneath stuff.

 
QB

Mahomes wins MVP and goes beserk with 5500 yards and 55 TDs--starting with a destruction of the Texans tomorrow (no bias though) and ending with revenge on Brady for the 2018 AFC CG in Brady's new house--14-2 season with 2 losses at Buffalo and at Miami and only close playoff game being Indy in the AFC CG

Daniel Jones top 8 QB as the Giants fight for the 7 seed

Bengals go 8-8 and Joe Burrow is a low QB1

Packers get hit by the regression train a year after they should have and end up missing the playoffs

Cam Newton is washed and the Patriots go 6-10

Herbert is garbage and the Chargers win 3 games and pull a Rosen on him in the first round next year by taking Fields

RB

Melvin Gordon is terrible again and Philip Lindsay is the Broncos' top RB despite fewer touches--Denver goes 10-6 and gets the 5 seed

Joe Mixon=top 3 RB behind just Saquon and CMC thanks to late season-2019 type usage and increased passing game work from Burrow

Singletary and Zack Moss are annoying to own because of unpredictability but finish as low RB2 (Moss)/high FLEX (Singletary) plays for a league-leading Bills rushing offense that takes the 1 seed in the AFC

CEH and Kenyan Drake round out the top 5 RBs

Jonathan Taylor spends some time in a committee since Marlon Mack is a good player; but after an injury in week 5, he gains the starting job and doesn't lose it for years=low RB1 from week 6 onwards

D'Andre Swift spends a bit longer in a committee because of Patricia but finds his niche as a pass catcher with a QB who has thrown to back plenty in the past and earns more carries to the tune of a Miles Sanders like rookie year and a RB15ish finish

Cam Akers 2020 is David Montgomery 2019 thanks mainly to an awful OL--no one really knows if he is good going into next year

WR

Diontae Johnson is Pittsburgh's new number 1 WR and finishes as a fantasy WR2 while Juju shows his 2019 was no fluke and is barely a top 35 WR before walking in the offseason

OBJ, DJ Moore, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson are are top 8 WRs in that order

Tyreek is the WR1 (no bias though) while MT "regresses" to WR3 overall (behind Julio too) thanks to the entry of Emmanuel Sanders--who ends up a sneaky WR2 himself--meaning the Saints' next best WR is not **checks notes)** Tre'Quan Smith

DeAndre Hopkins shows why moving teams is pretty much never a good thing for a WR's fantasy production--at least not when that move comes with a worse QB (for now) and worse O Line-- and is not a top 10 WR

Terry McLaurin is DJ Moore 2019 as he gets peppered by targets from Haskins and later Kyle Allen (since Haskins sucks) to the tune of 1200 yards

Cooper Kupp regresses with the absence Cooks forcing him to the outside against press/man corners, while Robert Woods regresses positively in the TD department, making both mid to low WR2s

TY Hilton while healthy is a high WR 2 as Rivers--with a real O Line and organization--shows he was not the problem with the Chargers on a Colts team that is this year's Titans, making the AFC Championship via an upset of 1 seed Buffalo despite narrowly losing the division to the actual Titans and being a Wild Card

Of course not staying healthy means Michael Pittman gets his shot and steps up to finish as the number 2 rookie WR with 900 yards on the year

Bryan Edwards is close behind with a Terry McLaurin like early season surge later derailed by injury resulting in 850ish yards on the year

TE

Darren Waller is a one year wonder whose time has gone now that the Raiders have real WRs--not a top 10 TE and barely the top TE on the Raiders with Foster Moreau's sophomore (mini) breakout

Tyler Higbee is also a one hit wonder except he never even really hit because he isn't good; by the end of the year, 4th round rookie Brycen Hopkins is taking the majority of first team TE reps (though as with all rookie TEs: not fantasy relevant)

By the end of the year Dallas Goedert has overtaken Ertz as the Eagles top TE thanks to his ability after the catch and blocking prowess

Hayden Hurst and Mike Gesicki are the number 4 and 5 TEs in fantasy respectively

Defenses

Patriots D massively regresses now that they can't feast off awful offenses like they did too start last year

Colts D is this year's 49ers type pickup and a top 5 unit with Deforest Buckner and an easy strength of schedule

Washington Football Team D is another sneaky great unit that comes on strong in the second half of the year as a top 8 unit over that span thanks to a young and emerging front 7 that pushes the team to 7 wins, down the draft order and forces them trade up for Trey Lance instead of Lawrence

Ravens D number 1 unit overall (not very bold but still)

Bucs D is another top pickup but flies under the radar because of historical opinions on the Bucs D and the attention given to the offense--but in playoff time they show how improved they are under Bowles to get the team to a home Super Bowl with a key sack fumble on Dak Prescott in the NFC Championship Game

Seahawks D is pretty awful—too many bad drafts in recent years pushes to the back of the playoffs and to 3rd in the division; like the Packers they won an unsustainable amount of close games last year (though Wilson puts up his best statistical season yet)

 
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Okay, I'll chime in. 

Josh Jacobs (yeah, Raider Nation bias present) leads the NFL with 1525 yards rushing. 

Tom Brady passes for 4550 yards and 33 TDs, with 2 rushing TDs.   The Bucs get in the playoffs as a wild card (Saints win division and NFC Title).  

Comeback Player of the Year:   Ben Roethlisberger   passes for 4200 yards and 28 TDs.   He leads the Steelers to the Super Bowl and wins it. 

A.J. Green (Comeback Runner-up) gets 85 catches, 1100 yards and 8 TDs.  

Kenyan Drake gets 1500 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs.   

Calvin Ridley becomes Batman to Julio's Superman, getting 90 catches for 1200 yards and 10 TDs.    Marquise Brown gets 850 yards receiving, 170 yards rushing and 7 TDs.   

Danny Dimes passes for 4100 yards and 25 TDs, but turns the ball over 25 times.   

J.K. Dobbins gets 700 yards rushing, 300 yards receiving and 7 TDs playing 2nd fiddle to Mark Ingram.   

 
Tanner9919 said:
CMC sees at least a 20% drop-off in production across the board in 2020, if not more. First time HC, first time OC , a former college guy/passing game coordinator suddenly thrust into the OC role, for a franchise that the Vegas oddsmakers have as the 3rd worst team in the NFL in 2020  tied with Bengals at 5.5 win o/u. We're CLEARLY underestimating how good the Turners were/are at getting max value from RBs. Not sold on the new kids on the block turning Carolina into a 10 win team - there will be huge growing pains here. I just don't see how CMC can finish anywhere near where he was last season. Teddy Bridgewater and his career 38/25 TD/int ratio with his 173 career passing yards/gm make me think defenses stack the box and dare Cap't INT to sling it. It's one thing to babysit the QB position in N.O. when you're throwing the MT and Kamara and Co., but now you have DJ Moore? oof.good luck with that.
Click to expand...
I watched one Panthers practice that was aired on TV.  They were handing the ball off to CMac on every dang play sans one pass play to who....yup...CMAC.  I think he scored 5 straight TDs.  They backed the offense up to the 10 yard line and he continued to score at will.  On came the second unit and Bonnofin was stuffed time after time.  Later for giggles they started having CMac split out and run fly routes.  While every one else was walking back to the huddle, Cmac was doing wind sprits back to the huddle.  The dude is possessed.

If you don't think the box was stacked last year with Allen and Grier at QB I don't know what to say.  Bridgewater will be an upgrade.  Robbie Anderson came in in the offseason.  Between Moore/Samuels/Anderson there will be plenty of speed and talent on the field to open up the underneath.  Tamara had 25 receipts in 4 games with Bridgewater, Murray had 6 over those 4 games.  That's 31 Recpts in a quarter of a season.

 
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