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RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (1 Viewer)

They were 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts last season, and 27th in 2021. Adding a 1st round WR would seem to suggest they aren't going back to their run heavy ways.
Carson went down. Penny went down. Then Walker eventually went down. I think there were some factors involved and would say the second round RB (for the second draft in a row) suggests things as well.
I honestly can't say how either player will be used in 2023, especially this early. If I end up being wrong on this one, I won't be too upset with my process at least.
 
He's probably gonna be over drafted considering this is a time share for a few years.
I keep hearing this but who exactly are you foregoing if you take Charbonet. I mean he still has to be RB3 in this class, no? Late first for a young RBBC back seems fine to me in this class.

For me in a 1qb ppr league where I'm deep at WR but thin at RB and have Lamar as my only QB, it comes down to Charbonnet vs Anthony Richardson. I will probably change my mind 100 times between now and our draft.
 
He's probably gonna be over drafted considering this is a time share for a few years.
I keep hearing this but who exactly are you foregoing if you take Charbonet. I mean he still has to be RB3 in this class, no? Late first for a young RBBC back seems fine to me in this class.

For me in a 1qb ppr league where I'm deep at WR but thin at RB and have Lamar as my only QB, it comes down to Charbonnet vs Anthony Richardson. I will probably change my mind 100 times between now and our draft.

This sounds eerily similar to me. Sold off some of my older RBs at the trade deadline as a few injuries had flattened my season out so decided to try re-tool on the fly. Got Lamar. Got JJ, Kupp, Amari and a few others.

Going back to an earlier post in this thread Charbonnet v Kendre Miller is a close one. I’m a big fan of Kendre and don’t think there’s much between them skill wise. You have Charbonnet thrown into a situation where there’s another top level RB locked down for another 3 years. Kendre has Kamara who will face suspension and is getting on a bit, and Jamaal who is also older and short term. It could open up for Kendre quite quickly tbh, and years 2-3 he could be the man. It’s close. The fact I have both Kamara and Jamaal means that Kendre makes more sense for me, but there’s not much in it without that anyways
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jones. Many expected Jones to be cut Because of salary. Entering year 4/ and Jones still there and Dillon only nice RB with injury.

I own pick 15 and 17 in my home league where TE premium, PPR and will fade Charbonnet there. I own Dillon and hardly started. Looking at TE and know they take time but feel Walker better than Jones overall. I also take a Mingo instead because longevity of RB. What is Dillons value today as he enters contract year. Mid 2nd at best in leagues. Those taking early will regret Unless you own Walker.
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jones. Many expected Jones to be cut Because of salary. Entering year 4/ and Jones still there and Dillon only nice RB with injury.

I own pick 15 and 17 in my home league where TE premium, PPR and will fade Charbonnet there. I own Dillon and hardly started. Looking at TE and know they take time but feel Walker better than Jones overall. I also take a Mingo instead because longevity of RB. What is Dillons value today as he enters contract year. Mid 2nd at best in leagues. Those taking early will regret Unless you own Walker.
except noone's expecting Walker to be cut. also their skill sets appear to be more similar than Dillon and Jones.
 
I have Walker and picks 3-4-6-20.

I'm not even sure I'd be tempted to use pick 20 on him right now. As I essentially have to take JSN to get value for these picks that's just too much Seahawk on my team.

I have picks 14-16 in SF, and have him ranked exactly 14th. If he drops to me I'm taking him, if he doesn't I don't really care
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jones. Many expected Jones to be cut Because of salary. Entering year 4/ and Jones still there and Dillon only nice RB with injury.

I own pick 15 and 17 in my home league where TE premium, PPR and will fade Charbonnet there. I own Dillon and hardly started. Looking at TE and know they take time but feel Walker better than Jones overall. I also take a Mingo instead because longevity of RB. What is Dillons value today as he enters contract year. Mid 2nd at best in leagues. Those taking early will regret Unless you own Walker.

I really don't see the similarities...Dillon/Jones was an older/younger scenario in which there was also two different skill sets and two different contract situations...Walker/Charbonet is more unique in that you have a lot of overlap...both young, both second round picks in back-to-back years, both on their first (and rather cheap) contract and the unknown that no one really knows how they will be used (whereas Dillon/Jones had a thunder and lightning feel when they took Dillon)...that is the rub with this situation...it is an unknown...Walker looked very good last year so I can't fathom him not still being a big piece of this offense but Seattle just used legit draft capitol on Charbonnet and I can't imagine it was done with simply being a backup in mind...and who knows what happens if once he gets on the field and he is lights out...overall, i will repeat what I said earlier in that I don't have an issue with being scared off by Charbonnet in this situation or saying screw it I believe in the talent and with this rookie crop I'm still gonna take him high...both angles make sense because until the season starts it's all speculation and everyone is guessing.
 
They were 22nd in the NFL in rushing attempts last season, and 27th in 2021. Adding a 1st round WR would seem to suggest they aren't going back to their run heavy ways.
Carson went down. Penny went down. Then Walker eventually went down. I think there were some factors involved and would say the second round RB (for the second draft in a row) suggests things as well.
I honestly can't say how either player will be used in 2023, especially this early. If I end up being wrong on this one, I won't be too upset with my process at least.
Seattle has faced extended periods of time where they wished they had one more RB than they had. It wasn't too long ago Riverdance was starting games for them and that experience might have affected their recent draft strategies.
 
It wasn't too long ago Riverdance was starting games for them and that experience might have affected their recent draft strategies.

Riverdance (I assume you mean Alex Collins) ran well for them when called upon, even at his advanced age. But your point is exactly what I thought of. if you're going to be a running team, and your average starting running back will average about 3 missed games a year, what are you trotting out there for those three games? I don't agree with it, and I don't agree with Sneaky Pete often, but I can see where he's coming from at least.
 
It wasn't too long ago Riverdance was starting games for them and that experience might have affected their recent draft strategies.

Riverdance (I assume you mean Alex Collins) ran well for them when called upon, even at his advanced age. But your point is exactly what I thought of. if you're going to be a running team, and your average starting running back will average about 3 missed games a year, what are you trotting out there for those three games? I don't agree with it, and I don't agree with Sneaky Pete often, but I can see where he's coming from at least.

The days of the bellcow are pretty much gone...and those owners chasing it are playing old school fantasy football.
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jone
You could actually just stay in Seattle under the regime of Carroll/Schneider and find several examples were the RB drafted high was not able to carve out a big role or present a threat to the incumbent.

Christine Michel was the first one.

Penny was the next one. Was not able to beat out Carson.

Walker was the clear second banana to Penny, though that was only a 4 game sample size.
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jone
You could actually just stay in Seattle under the regime of Carroll/Schneider and find several examples were the RB drafted high was not able to carve out a big role or present a threat to the incumbent.

Christine Michel was the first one.

Penny was the next one. Was not able to beat out Carson.

Walker was the clear second banana to Penny, though that was only a 4 game sample size.
Yep. Seattle has always drafted backup RBs high.

My two cents is that this is still Walker's backfield with Charbonnet, a good downhill runner without anything near Walker's explosiveness, getting like 30% of the carries to spell Walker.
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jone
You could actually just stay in Seattle under the regime of Carroll/Schneider and find several examples were the RB drafted high was not able to carve out a big role or present a threat to the incumbent.

Christine Michel was the first one.

Penny was the next one. Was not able to beat out Carson.

Walker was the clear second banana to Penny, though that was only a 4 game sample size.
Yep. Seattle has always drafted backup RBs high.

My two cents is that this is still Walker's backfield with Charbonnet, a good downhill runner without anything near Walker's explosiveness, getting like 30% of the carries to spell Walker.
I see it the other way. I see charbonet getting the bulk of the Carrie’s as the season wears on and relegates Walker to the change of pace back breaker at the end of the game when defenses start to get winded. I think Charbs represents more the mauling Marshawn type of back Pete loves and wants to get in the game more than the kind of rb Walker is.
I’m not a Seattle fan so I’m no expert on them but just on the outside looking in that’s how I see it. I don’t think I’d draft Charb top 6 like he was probably going to go if he was drafted somewhere else but back of the first round for fantasy someone could get a nice deal unless camp shows us something on how they want to use these two young rbs
 
Why does this feel eerily similar to AJ Dillon in 2020. Drafted in 2nd round. Everyone expected him to take over from Jone
You could actually just stay in Seattle under the regime of Carroll/Schneider and find several examples were the RB drafted high was not able to carve out a big role or present a threat to the incumbent.

Christine Michel was the first one.

Penny was the next one. Was not able to beat out Carson.

Walker was the clear second banana to Penny, though that was only a 4 game sample size.
Yep. Seattle has always drafted backup RBs high.

My two cents is that this is still Walker's backfield with Charbonnet, a good downhill runner without anything near Walker's explosiveness, getting like 30% of the carries to spell Walker.
I see it the other way. I see charbonet getting the bulk of the Carrie’s as the season wears on and relegates Walker to the change of pace back breaker at the end of the game when defenses start to get winded. I think Charbs represents more the mauling Marshawn type of back Pete loves and wants to get in the game more than the kind of rb Walker is.
I’m not a Seattle fan so I’m no expert on them but just on the outside looking in that’s how I see it. I don’t think I’d draft Charb top 6 like he was probably going to go if he was drafted somewhere else but back of the first round for fantasy someone could get a nice deal unless camp shows us something on how they want to use these two young rbs
That was a fleeting thought I had as well but in need of RB1, 1.07 is a costly gamble for RBBC risk. I had Charbs RB3 early in process and have to look at more KW3 film to see if he can carve majority share carries… even but EOS
 
If there was one area Walker struggles it was short yardage. I see Zach more of a glider, and Walker more explosive.....merge them together you get a Shaun Alexander.
 
I can see this kind of ending up like how Carroll wanted to use Penny and Carson (but I don't think that's as bad for Walker as it sounds, more like the few games in 2019 when Penny was healthy). Charbs probably gets the short yardage running situations and gets more work in the passing game, so that could leave Walker lacking high value touches. He probably still houses them at a high rate because he's very good, and his game is explosive plays. Still going to be fun in fantasy, but more boom or bust than he was last year and with a capped ceiling.

KW3 is a wonderful runner, but he's a home run hitter, and Charbs is probably more consistent when they just need a guy to fall forward for 2 yards against a stacked box. Charbonnet's also a good receiver, which is a question mark for KW3. I get why they make a good pair (although I think they could have found a complement much cheaper). It's a bummer for Walker, but I can't get behind the idea that Walker becomes some sort of change of pace back. He's a near elite level runners and I think Charbs is more a big consistent grinder on the ground.
 
Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
2023 Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet projection: 113 carries, 476 yards, 3 TDs; 27 targets, 21 receptions, 156 yards, 1 TD (14 games)
- Yeah, these numbers are ugly...and they'll likely have to be even lower for Ken Walker III to produce a RB1 fantasy campaign.
I’ll take the over. 😬
So you're just a Charbonnet guy. I think you underestimate Walker. Walker may be a top 5 RB in the league right now. So Zach would have to be better than a top 5 RB.
Maybe he is.
 
Grading Fantasy Football Landing Spots for Top Rookies After 2023 NFL Draft

Excerpt:

Confession time. Zach Charbonnet was my favorite running back prospect of the class. Maybe not the best—that would be Bijan Robinson. But I thought Charbonnet was a better all-around prospect than Jahmyr Gibbs, and he has the skill set to be an every-down back and fantasy force. Had he landed with the Cincinnati Bengals or Philadelphia Eagles, Charbonnet would be the No. 2 rookie running back, someone who would have been relevant for fantasy managers from the get-go.
Instead, from a fantasy perspective, disaster struck. The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round—you know, the same team that drafted Ken Walker III in the second round last year.
Head coach Pete Carroll talked up Charbonnet in a Monday radio appearance—but acknowledged the carry split between the two is an unknown.
"He's so versatile," Carroll said on Bump and Stacy. "He just will fit in and be a great addition. And really we're going to find out how far he can take it in terms of the receiving part of it. We know he's really good at it, but so is Kenneth, and so those guys will be battling."
Mind you, it's not like Walker was bad as a rookie—he topped 1,000 rushing yards and averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Even if Charbonnet wins the lead role, this has the makings of a committee.
And that's bad news for Charbonnet and Walker.
Grade: D
 
Mike Clay@MikeClayNFL
2023 Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet projection: 113 carries, 476 yards, 3 TDs; 27 targets, 21 receptions, 156 yards, 1 TD (14 games)
- Yeah, these numbers are ugly...and they'll likely have to be even lower for Ken Walker III to produce a RB1 fantasy campaign.
I’ll take the over. 😬
So you're just a Charbonnet guy. I think you underestimate Walker. Walker may be a top 5 RB in the league right now. So Zach would have to be better than a top 5 RB.
Maybe he is.
Out the gate, your projection/assertion is off - I’m certainly not “a Charbonnet guy”, I’m a FF guy. I have no shares of Charbonnet, nor any possibility of drafting him anywhere except redraft. Nor do I roster Walker anywhere, thank goodness.

The fact is that Walker struggled in short yardage situations last year, and was woefully inconsistent - near last in the league. Another fact is that the Seahawks had initially intended on putting him in a time-share with Penny. Walker is also a pretty mediocre receiver, which was the biggest knock on him headed into the NFL draft. He performed better than expected in that dept when thrust into a featured role, but he was still less than ideal.

So while he may have been a top FF RB, clearly he was not a top NFL RB, or the Seahawks wouldn’t have spent a 2nd round pick (roughly the same capital they spent on Walker) on a RB.

The real fantasy is assuming they spent that significant draft capital on a better short yardage and better receiving back in Charbonnet only to make him a backup.

This is why they drafted Charbonnet:
But in between the explosive plays are the moments when Walker doesn’t take what’s there or dances his way into trouble for a loss or a run of no gain. Walker averages 4.54 yards per carry, which ranks 21st among running backs with at least 50 carries. But using that same carry minimum, Walker ranks 51st out of 52 running backs in success rate and has the second-highest rate of carries for either no gain or negative yardage. According to Next Gen Stats, Walker has the second-lowest rate of runs that exceed expectation.
It’s very likely to be a RBBC in Seattle, and I believe it’s a reasonable assumption that ZC is more likely to get those high value touches (receptions/short yardage) than Walker.

Make no mistake - Walkers FF value has cratered. In no way, shape, nor form is he a top 5 FF RB right now, and the addition of a super talented Chabonnet did not help.

Hey, maybe it’s a buy-low situation if you believe he is. Go for it.

Personally, I’m avoiding the entire situation and it has zero to do with my personal affinity for one player over the other, as I roster neither.
 
So Zach would have to be better than a top 5 RB.
You've repeated this twice now and neither time was it true. Even if Walker was a Top 5 back, that would not mean Charbonet has to be better to cut into Walker's snaps. You do realize the team just drafted Charbonet in Round 2, same round they drafted Walker?
Exactly. RBBC just eviscerates both their values. And I’m confident Carroll will use them both, a lot.

Since Charbs has a better receiving & short yardage profile, I’d be more likely to throw a dart his way in redraft if the ADP is depressed.

But it could be ugly in SEA this year for FF RB
 
I think the most encouraging aspect of this situation for ZC is that Seattle already had the Kenneth Walker experience for a year and then decided to spend a 2nd round pick on ZC.

Furthermore, here's a clip of well-liked, starting QB Geno and rookie RB KWalker arguing on the sideline in week 13: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MppV5GYnMRQ
The first comment on the video includes Richard Sherman's reaction via his podcast: "Rookies should be seen and not heard…I don’t give a damn how good your season’s going…you a rookie…sit down and shut up". Of course, KW isn't a rookie anymore but stuff like this could portend larger issues not made public. Also, I could see old-school Pete Carroll agreeing with Sherman's take.

As soon as ZC was drafted I thought he'd be my guy at the 1.09 in 1 QB draft. Since then Achane has grown on me a bit and if a 1st round drafted WR/TE fell to me I'd have to consider, but I certainly like ZC's prospects going forward.
 
I have taken him 1.6 and 1.7 in 2 drafts today, 1 QB full PPR leagues. Just a matter of what your flavor/team needs are once you get past the first 3 picks. The first 5 are about the same, then it takes different turns from there. Big fan of his style and potential, even if he might be stuck in RBBC hell for now.
 
Personally, I’m avoiding the entire situation and it has zero to do with my personal affinity for one player over the other, as I roster neither.
This is where I'm at.

I wasn't in the position to take Walker, so now that another back is there, I see no reason to invest in that backfield now.
I sure do if the store is offering close out prices
 
I sure do if the store is offering close out prices
I mean sure, there’s a price for every player if it gets cheap enough.

If I’m in the 8-9 round of redraft after loading up on WR/TE/QB and cobbling together a zero RB backfield, Walker would definitely be a consideration.

But then, so would Charbonnet.

Who would you pick 1st of the two, is the more interesting question I think.
 
I sure do if the store is offering close out prices
I mean sure, there’s a price for every player if it gets cheap enough.

If I’m in the 8-9 round of redraft after loading up on WR/TE/QB and cobbling together a zero RB backfield, Walker would definitely be a consideration.

But then, so would Charbonnet.

Who would you pick 1st of the two, is the more interesting question I think.
7th round you don't take walker? Lol
 
I sure do if the store is offering close out prices
I mean sure, there’s a price for every player if it gets cheap enough.

If I’m in the 8-9 round of redraft after loading up on WR/TE/QB and cobbling together a zero RB backfield, Walker would definitely be a consideration.

But then, so would Charbonnet.

Who would you pick 1st of the two, is the more interesting question I think.
7th round you don't take walker? Lol
It was a hypothetical. I pulled a round # out of my butt.

I have no idea what their ADP will be.

Who do you take first in redraft, Waker or Charbonet?
 
Last edited:
I sure do if the store is offering close out prices
I mean sure, there’s a price for every player if it gets cheap enough.

If I’m in the 8-9 round of redraft after loading up on WR/TE/QB and cobbling together a zero RB backfield, Walker would definitely be a consideration.

But then, so would Charbonnet.

Who would you pick 1st of the two, is the more interesting question I think.
7th round you don't take walker? Lol
It was a hypothetical. I pulled a round # out of my butt.

I have no idea what their ADP will be.

Who do you take first in redraft, Waker or Charbonet?
I could certainly be wrong but I don’t think this is hard. Walker is the better back imo.
Although as the Walker owner with the 1.12 in SF, Char is very tempting.
 
KENNETH WALKER AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION

Excerpt:

Kenneth Walker is currently being drafted in round 13.3, with an ADP of 178



ZACH CHARBONNET AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION

Excerpt:

Zach Charbonnet is currently being drafted in round 18.8, with an ADP of 145.4



I think the automated text for the round taken is incorrect. Right now based on the ADP data, it appears that Charbonnet is being selected ahead of Kenneth Walker.
If that’s the case it’s probably rookie drafts being included
 
Looking at limited FFPC startups in their standard leagues that have started after the NFL draft we got Walker with an ADP of 3.1, based on 11 drafts he's been selected and Charbonnet as 6.6 in the 8 drafts he's been selected.

11 and 8 is not a ton of data but both of those sound about right to me and what I'd expect.
 
Looking at limited FFPC startups in their standard leagues that have started after the NFL draft we got Walker with an ADP of 3.1, based on 11 drafts he's been selected and Charbonnet as 6.6 in the 8 drafts he's been selected.

11 and 8 is not a ton of data but both of those sound about right to me and what I'd expect.
No way in hell would I draft Walker in the early 3rd after the Seahawks took a RB in the 2nd round.
 
I sure do if the store is offering close out prices
I mean sure, there’s a price for every player if it gets cheap enough.

If I’m in the 8-9 round of redraft after loading up on WR/TE/QB and cobbling together a zero RB backfield, Walker would definitely be a consideration.

But then, so would Charbonnet.

Who would you pick 1st of the two, is the more interesting question I think.
7th round you don't take walker? Lol
It was a hypothetical. I pulled a round # out of my butt.

I have no idea what their ADP will be.

Who do you take first in redraft, Waker or Charbonet?
Walked easily
 
Looking at limited FFPC startups in their standard leagues that have started after the NFL draft we got Walker with an ADP of 3.1, based on 11 drafts he's been selected and Charbonnet as 6.6 in the 8 drafts he's been selected.

11 and 8 is not a ton of data but both of those sound about right to me and what I'd expect.
No way in hell would I draft Walker in the early 3rd after the Seahawks took a RB in the 2nd round.
I did not refresh the page and I was looking at Walker went even higher now that he's been drafted 16 times. ADP of 2.10, lowest he's gone is 4.3

Charbonnet 6.1 based on 15 drafts. The highest he's gone, 4.10, is 7 spots away from the lowest Walker has gone.

I would personally be looking at other options over both of them but I can see what people are thinking in startups. The amount of RB's people feel they can trust for just 2-3 years is pretty low.
 

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