Week 10 2023 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

[dickey moe]

Kincaid over Hock in PPR?

Y'know, Kincaid looked to be taking over the TE receiving role before Knox got hurt and he has looked very good over the last two weeks. It's also a solid matchup. It's a bigger risk as Hock is probably a bigger piece of the Minnesota offense, but he's on a snap count (allegedly) and it is still a very new QB to this offense regardless of what we saw last week.

Kincaid>Hock

Oof. Sorry everybody.

 

[N Zone]

Need 2 of these 3 Full PPR
Kenneth Walker vs Washington Commanders
Bijan Robinson @ Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery @ LA Chargers

 

[Chaka]

Need 2 of these 3 Full PPR
Kenneth Walker vs Washington Commanders
Bijan Robinson @ Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery @ LA Chargers

To me it comes down to how you feel about Montgomery & Walker's health.

If Walker is healthy I would expect to see him return to being the 18-20 guy we saw before two weeks ago. I don't think Charbonnet has done anything to reduce the workload of a healthy Walker.

Monty is definitely the GL guy in Detroit and probably still the lead guy in most even and leading game scripts. However Gibbs is probably the guy in trailing game scripts and has done enough over the last couple games to warrant some more PT and he was already averaging ~13 opportunities in the three games they played together.

I'm sticking with Bijan, contrary to popular belief he's seeing more opportunities than Allgeier. That migraine game was just a weird outlier IMO. It's a great matchup and I just love Bijan's skill set.

If you're confident about Walker's health I would start him, if not Monty.

Bijan>Walker>Montgomery

 

[N Zone]

Need 2 of these 3 Full PPR
Kenneth Walker vs Washington Commanders
Bijan Robinson @ Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery @ LA Chargers

To me it comes down to how you feel about Montgomery & Walker's health.

If Walker is healthy I would expect to see him return to being the 18-20 guy we saw before two weeks ago. I don't think Charbonnet has done anything to reduce the workload of a healthy Walker.

Monty is definitely the GL guy in Detroit and probably still the lead guy in most even and leading game scripts. However Gibbs is probably the guy in trailing game scripts and has done enough over the last couple games to warrant some more PT and he was already averaging ~13 opportunities in the three games they played together.

I'm sticking with Bijan, contrary to popular belief he's seeing more opportunities than Allgeier. That migraine game was just a weird outlier IMO. It's a great matchup and I just love Bijan's skill set.

If you're confident about Walker's health I would start him, if not Monty.

Bijan>Walker>Montgomery

Thank you. I was originally going to start Walker and Montgomery and then my concern is Walker's poor production the last couple of weeks is why I asked the question, so going with Bijan and Montgomery now (I think). I'm concerned about the entire Seahawks offense.

 

[N Zone]

Need 2 of these 3 Full PPR
Kenneth Walker vs Washington Commanders
Bijan Robinson @ Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery @ LA Chargers

To me it comes down to how you feel about Montgomery & Walker's health.

If Walker is healthy I would expect to see him return to being the 18-20 guy we saw before two weeks ago. I don't think Charbonnet has done anything to reduce the workload of a healthy Walker.

Monty is definitely the GL guy in Detroit and probably still the lead guy in most even and leading game scripts. However Gibbs is probably the guy in trailing game scripts and has done enough over the last couple games to warrant some more PT and he was already averaging ~13 opportunities in the three games they played together.

I'm sticking with Bijan, contrary to popular belief he's seeing more opportunities than Allgeier. That migraine game was just a weird outlier IMO. It's a great matchup and I just love Bijan's skill set.

If you're confident about Walker's health I would start him, if not Monty.

Bijan>Walker>Montgomery

Thank you. I was originally going to start Walker and Montgomery and then my concern is Walker's poor production the last couple of weeks is why I asked the question, so going with Bijan and Montgomery now (I think). I'm concerned about the entire Seahawks offense.

Went with David Montgomery and Bijan (over Kenneth Walker). That's definitely worked out in my favor!

 

[Chaka]

Need 2 of these 3 Full PPR
Kenneth Walker vs Washington Commanders
Bijan Robinson @ Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery @ LA Chargers

To me it comes down to how you feel about Montgomery & Walker's health.

If Walker is healthy I would expect to see him return to being the 18-20 guy we saw before two weeks ago. I don't think Charbonnet has done anything to reduce the workload of a healthy Walker.

Monty is definitely the GL guy in Detroit and probably still the lead guy in most even and leading game scripts. However Gibbs is probably the guy in trailing game scripts and has done enough over the last couple games to warrant some more PT and he was already averaging ~13 opportunities in the three games they played together.

I'm sticking with Bijan, contrary to popular belief he's seeing more opportunities than Allgeier. That migraine game was just a weird outlier IMO. It's a great matchup and I just love Bijan's skill set.

If you're confident about Walker's health I would start him, if not Monty.

Bijan>Walker>Montgomery

Thank you. I was originally going to start Walker and Montgomery and then my concern is Walker's poor production the last couple of weeks is why I asked the question, so going with Bijan and Montgomery now (I think). I'm concerned about the entire Seahawks offense.

Went with David Montgomery and Bijan (over Kenneth Walker). That's definitely worked out in my favor!

 

[N Zone]

Need 2 of these 3 Full PPR
Kenneth Walker vs Washington Commanders
Bijan Robinson @ Arizona Cardinals
David Montgomery @ LA Chargers

To me it comes down to how you feel about Montgomery & Walker's health.

If Walker is healthy I would expect to see him return to being the 18-20 guy we saw before two weeks ago. I don't think Charbonnet has done anything to reduce the workload of a healthy Walker.

Monty is definitely the GL guy in Detroit and probably still the lead guy in most even and leading game scripts. However Gibbs is probably the guy in trailing game scripts and has done enough over the last couple games to warrant some more PT and he was already averaging ~13 opportunities in the three games they played together.

I'm sticking with Bijan, contrary to popular belief he's seeing more opportunities than Allgeier. That migraine game was just a weird outlier IMO. It's a great matchup and I just love Bijan's skill set.

If you're confident about Walker's health I would start him, if not Monty.

Bijan>Walker>Montgomery

Thank you. I was originally going to start Walker and Montgomery and then my concern is Walker's poor production the last couple of weeks is why I asked the question, so going with Bijan and Montgomery now (I think). I'm concerned about the entire Seahawks offense.

Went with David Montgomery and Bijan (over Kenneth Walker). That's definitely worked out in my favor!

In my league
21 BIjan
24 Montgomery
24 K Walker
So they were all good. Should have benched Etienne instead.

 

[BobbyLayne]

A lot of these questions could/should have been asked earlier in the week.

you are doing amazing work here every week

thanks brother man

 

[BobbyLayne]

PSA

Fire up anyone connected with the Lions offense. The OL is healthy for the first time since Week 1 (all 53 were FP Tuesday), Lions are coming off a bye while Los Angeles flew back from NJ after MNF.

Despite the stellar pass rush provided by #52 and #97, the Chargers allow the most fantasy football points per game to QBs (4 pt passing TDs), 7th most points to RBs, 5th most points to WRs, 7th most points to TEs. They can't cover anyone. IMO

Detroit's Team Grade rankings per PFF:

• OFFENSE 3rd
• PASSING 3rd
• PASS BLOCKING 3rd
• RECEIVING 7th
• RUSHING 12th
• RUN BLOCKING 2nd

calling this a dub

full PPR part deux

need a WR3:

• Jayden Reed at Pittsburgh
• Josh Reynolds at LAC (neutral site known as SoFi)

Jayden is getting more looks lately (13 over the last 3 games) but his snap counts are all over the map (48%, 78%, 39%).

Reynolds is still on the field for 80% of the Lions snaps over the last three games even if he has only seen 7 total targets during that span. I don't see where he fits with Monty, Gibbs, ARSB, LaPorta and Williams all in the game plan.

I think Reed is probably the right call, with Minkah Fitzpatrick trending out but you can't have much confidence in either option.

Reed>Reynolds

BIG DUB

Flex in a full PPR

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caveat emptor

I'm an 80% favorite over a guy with 6 players on a bye.....check that, a guy who still needs to add a QB for this week and his WW options are Baker, Bryce, Bilbao Baggins, Zach Wilson, and Tommy Devito.

Enough about the loser in second I'm about to take to the woodshed, let's talk about my team.....

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• Jaylen Warren v GB
• Keaton Mitchell v CLE

While this appears to be an unserious query, the (twisted) thought process goes like this....I'm a 25 point favorite. The chalk move is Warren, a delightfully boring player with flex appeal. Ho hum, another 9-to-14 pointers, thanks, 4-for-4 on the do-no-harm scale.

Do I take the boring 10 pointer?

Or do I YOLO this thing and swing for the fences at M&T Bank Stadium (a venue literally in the shadows of Camden Yard)?

EDIT

after the 2nd place team decides on which WW QB he wants to lose with, I'll be a 25-27 point favorite

I have a bit of a bias for selecting players that I like to root for. Based on that logic, and nothing else, I absolutely support

Keaton>Warren

But the smart move is definitely Warren.

I chose to be smart, another dub for you pard

PPR

Jaylen Warren vs GB

or

Chubba Hubbard vs Chi?

ECR has it a coin flip, both have a good matchup, I'd lean the guy playing at home on the team that is favored. Chuba probably outsnaps Warren but he's more inefficient with his starters touches than Warren is with his CoP role.

dub #2 for me

Need one SUPERFLEX 1 PPR

Bagent
Ford
Hunt

Ford

but I wouldn't feel great about it

I like what Bagent is bringing with his mobility, good floor - if you are a favorite I might go with Bilbo Baggins. If you're a dog, Ford.

Man Baltimore is tough at M&T Bank Stadium this year, tough one.

dub #3

PPR
Khalil Herbert vs Car
or
Courtland Sutton vs Buf

Sutton

I don't think this one is much of a dilemma, am I missing something? Sutton has 6 TDs and Buffalo is very mid on pass defense this year.

dub #4
walkover since Herbert DNP

As Usual…WR issues in 2 different leagues.

LEAGUE 1: .5 PPR SIT 1 OF THESE 4
Higgins Vs Houston
Diontae Vs Green Bay
DJ Moore Vs Carolina
Pittman VS New England

Diontae will have Alexander to deal with. DJ Moore has Bagent for another week. Pittman in Europe. Higgins seems like best matchup, although he just showed up on injury report (hamstring). No idea of severity.

Obviously monitor the reports. If Higgins is FP by Friday I'd stick with him, otherwise I like DJM in a revenge game. Pittman has a tough matchup but so consistent (WR 9-17-14-13 the last 4. Dionte will have volume but more of a floor play.

I just like the way Burrow and the offense is playing rn, though.

BIG L #1 - Pittman (16.4) crushed DJM (10.9) and Diontae's floor was the basement (2.7)

LEAGUE 2: 1 PPR SIT 2 of these 4
Diontae Vs Green Bay
Nico Collins at Cincinnati
Davante Adams Vs Jets
Derrick Henry at Tampa

No idea what to do here..

If there is snow in Vermont you start Henry.

Feel like the WRs are Diontae-Adams are a coin flip. Collins is your 4th option. None of those three have the upside of Derrick Henry.

BIG L #2 - Henry (3.0) was a bust, Adams (14.6) dominated DJ (2.70)

PPR league

Zay Flowers v CLE
Calvin Ridley v SF

TIA

my gut says go with the game that might have some offense

Ridley is coming off a good game and has a favorable matchups (hey, don't like it, play better D, just looking at stats here)

Flowers has been the suck the last two weeks

BIG L #3 - Flowers (12.3) tripled Ridley (4.0) production

On a 0-10 scale, 0 being not at all, whats your guess on how much I will regret dropping C Watson

1.5

about as much as I regret Jamo and then Josh Reynolds

sitting here realizing that IF JA'MARR CHASE CAN'T GO tomorrow I'm hitting a WW that has.....checks notes....zero WRs projected for more than 7.69 points. In Full PPR.

Trenton Irwin, you might just be starting tomorrow. For the Bengals and for me. Are you excited? Because I sure am.

dub #5

PPR

Logan Thomas vs Sea
or
Pitts vs Ariz?

Thomas has a better matchup and he sucks less

dub #6

Standard league non-ppr

Kyler Murry vs Atl

or

Trevor Lawrence vs SF?

according to the consensus rankings of 173 X-Spurts, Lawrence will outscore Kyler 16.4 to 16.2

made ya feel a lot better, didn't it?

L #4

On a 0-10 scale, 0 being not at all, whats your guess on how much I will regret dropping C Watson

1.5

about as much as I regret Jamo and then Josh Reynolds

sitting here realizing that IF JA'MARR CHASE CAN'T GO tomorrow I'm hitting a WW that has.....checks notes....zero WRs projected for more than 7.69 points. In Full PPR.

Trenton Irwin, you might just be starting tomorrow. For the Bengals and for me. Are you excited? Because I sure am.

I’m playing Irwin in some props

10 targets 8-60 last time Tee missed a game

dub #7 2-54-1 for a last minute filler is fine

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1. @Chaka your weekly thread is one of the best things in TSP
   
   thank you again, it is an amazing act of service on your part
   
   
2. it's impossible to get them all right but I feel like your thought process & reasoning is super solid; I have been playing almost 25 years and observing you + applying that to my process has made me a better FF manager

 

[The Dude]

Thanks for advice this week.

i know the below are low value but which 2 are best ros

C watson
jsn
q johnston
r rice
gabe

 

[Chaka]

Thanks for advice this week.

i know the below are low value but which 2 are best ros

C watson
jsn
q johnston
r rice
gabe

I think you need to be out on Watson at this point. He maybe, possibly, might do something but he has hurt you far more often than helped and I imagine that trend will continue. He will have a big game, we'll chase the points then get burned.

I can't get too excited about JSN. He seems like a 5-7 target, 4-50 guy with the occasional TD. Good player for sure but I'm thinking he's a next year option.

In a game where Herbert threw the ball 40 times for 323 yards, QJ saw 4 targets (4th on the team) for 34 yards. The TD was awesome but nothing about the situation feels like the recipe for consistent success. When Palmer comes back it gets even cloudier.

That leaves Rice & Gabe Davis and not just by default, but also by default, I think they are your best options. Two best QBs of the bunch (okay Herbert=Allen maybe) and both have demonstrated high TD upside , this season at the very least. If you're putting a guy in your lineup as a flex or injury replacement I am okay with guys on those two offenses who seem to have a nose for the end zone. I don't think either morphs into a consistent 7-80-.5 kind of guy this year but if I need a spot start or injury replacement they are the kind of guys I'm looking for.

Rice & Gabe IMO

 

[The Dude]

Do you mind when I ask non-WDIS questions?

Best WR pick up in trade - top 2 - half ppr:

M Brown (AZ)
Dell
Flowers
J Downs

 

[Chaka]

Do you mind when I ask non-WDIS questions?

Best WR pick up in trade - top 2 - half ppr:

M Brown (AZ)
Dell
Flowers
J Downs

Bunch of similar options IMO. Marquise is probably the correct call, unless you think Trey McBride is going to see 13 targets/week. The target distribution in general yesterday felt like an anomaly.

Dell is also a fine option but, depending on the status of Nico I wonder if the Texans can sustain so many options in the passing game. Between Nico, Schultz and now apparently Noah Brown I could see some inconsistency.

Flowers is the #1 WR on the Ravens and it really isn't close. ATM the Ravens are just strong across the board and aren't really throwing the ball all that much so Zay is seeing only about 7 targets per game and averaging 5-54-0.1 The lack of TDs is the ultimate disappointment, he and Lamar have been close on several deep shots but they keep missing. Zay does see plenty of targets in the RZ but, again that hasn't translated into TDs.

Downs is a good player, some say he's the best WR in Indy. I am not one of those people. Pittman is unquestionably the alpha in that offense and, IMO, that doesn't change this season IMO. And, for whatever reason the offense is starting to look more like a 200 pass yards/game team than 300 so the pie that Downs is pulling from is fairly small. Same with Zay/Lamar but at least Zay is leading the WRs in Baltimore. Still Downs does appear to be very good and he probably has some stand alone value this season, I just worry that he will have a high variance.

Brown>Zay>Dell (depending on Nico's status)>Downs