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Who will be the GOP candidate in 2024? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Leroy Hoard
- Start date
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
You know these "for the sake of the country" or the recently popularized "for the soul of America" platitudes don't really have any meaning or value in the long run.
They especially have significantly less value when the right is going to go with a traditional establishment career politician next election. Just doesn't have that same "oomph" without Trump in the picture. It's not a tagline the Dems can use anymore with any effectiveness.
The Commish
Footballguy
It is my belief that without Trump, Trumpism dies.
I don't think there are any personalities out there that are big enough to maintain that coalition of voters. So, I think we will see the GOP swing back to a more conservative base, and those voters will shun any remnants of Trumpism.
Hawley has gone all-in on Trumpism, and I don't think he is a skilled enough politician to extricate himself from that position.
The Commish
Footballguy
You have more faith in people than I do....it's my belief that if Trump tells them to vote for him, they will. We won't be "without Trump" until he dies.
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Sea Duck
Footballguy
I don't think that Trumpism will die without Trump, but I do think that people like Hawley and Crenshaw and the various Trump children are all overlooking the one key ingredient which brings it all together: the charisma. None of those people have the fine-tuned ability to not just "say what people want to hear", but to confidently state random hogwash and convince people that it's exactly what they believe.
Trump possesses a unique combination of charisma, narcissism and sociopathy that this country hasn't seen in decades. I don't see anyone on the horizon who can step in and replicate his style.
I think that Ted Cruz could come close, if only because he's smarter than the others and he's highly experienced in the art of politspeak. But I suspect that Ted would ultimately fall short, if only because he gives off a slight hint of cynicism in everything that he says. He's kind of like a political version of Rush Limbaugh, where you know that a good portion of the stuff he says is shtick, but you enjoy it anyway because it riles up the libs.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Exactly why Trump or another Trump makes the most sense. He has already thrown a bunch of outside supporters under the bus, up to & including his VP. If it's not him it will be someone he has the most control over.
The Commish
Footballguy
Yeah, I hear this "charisma" thing a lot and I've never understood it. I think people using it are mistaking his genuine belief in all the conspiracy theories as "charisma". From an actual "charisma" standpoint, it's not much better than a wet mop IMO. ANYONE who actually believes these things is going to be able to connect on that level.
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Sea Duck
Footballguy
It's difficult to define Trump's charisma with a single sentence. But it's more than just believing in conspiracies. It's the way he can believe in conspiracies without actually saying that he believes in them; it's the way he can get away with saying "many people are saying" and "believe me" and "in about two weeks" and none of his supporters question it; it's the way that he can embody various traits that his supporters had historically claimed to condemn -- adultery, lying, irreligiousness, criticizing the military and the police -- and then just wave it off like a jedi knight. He's a master of it, because he's been doing it for his entire adult life. It takes years of practice to be that slick. That's why I think the younger guys (Hawley, Crenshaw, Don Jr, etc.) would crash and burn. Replacing the king takes more than posting memes to own the libs.
BladeRunner
Footballguy
Moonlight
Footballguy
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
He's got absolutely zero shot but I'm still a fan of Jon Huntsman.
I could be interested in Evan McMullin as well, though he's perhaps a tad conservative on some social issues for my liking. Amash still tops my list.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
We all caught a break there.jm192 said:
rockaction
Footballguy
The 2024 candidate is dead in the water unless he or she fully energizes the base. If someone, say...Nikki Haley runs an apology tour, she's dead in the water. If Sasse does, the same thing will happen to him. What I fear will happen is that the next GOP candidate takes the formula of Trumpism and tries to use that coalition to win the electoral college. In as much as one does that, it further cements nationalism as its animating principle rather than conservatism or classical liberal thought, and it will result in even more divisive politics than we have now.
I think it is going to be fascinating to watch. The election cycle is actually a lot closer than people think, as it will really start up in earnest in a little over 2 years from now.
I think the 2022 mid-terms will have a large say in what type of GOP candidate emerges. Whatever the issues are that carry the day for GOP members in 2022 will probably shape the beginning of the election cycle. So, in that sense, we are about 18 months away from seeing what issues matter to GOP voters.
the rover
Footballguy
A Sasse type could have success. The risk is that the Trump base just won't turn out, but there's no way the democrats are going to get the kind of energy that they had this time without a villain. I think a more centrist Republican candidate makes that aspect of the election a wash.
jm192
Footballguy
I think the party needs to do some serious soul searching. The GOP is fractured in a big way.
Up until the 6th, the Republican party had stood together as a unit minus the stray vote here and there that wasn't enough to move the needle. On the 6th, McConnel and Graham tried to do the right thing. Cruz and Hawley dug their heels in and remained loyal to Trump. And...well, you can't be fractured on the POTUS's act of sedition. They need to do the right thing, show they care about America, and unanimously vote to impeach/prevent him from running for office again.
Right now I can't imagine any Republican winning in 2024. I think either Donald or one of the Trump off-spring try to run in 2024 and interfere with the GOP. Are we still the Republican party of old? Or are we the party of Trump? Are we going to put up with them to tap into that base? I hope not. We need to reject all things Trump. If we have to pander to the Trump base of White Supremacy, we don't need to win an election.
Up until the 6th, the Republican party had stood together as a unit minus the stray vote here and there that wasn't enough to move the needle. On the 6th, McConnel and Graham tried to do the right thing. Cruz and Hawley dug their heels in and remained loyal to Trump. And...well, you can't be fractured on the POTUS's act of sedition. They need to do the right thing, show they care about America, and unanimously vote to impeach/prevent him from running for office again.
Right now I can't imagine any Republican winning in 2024. I think either Donald or one of the Trump off-spring try to run in 2024 and interfere with the GOP. Are we still the Republican party of old? Or are we the party of Trump? Are we going to put up with them to tap into that base? I hope not. We need to reject all things Trump. If we have to pander to the Trump base of White Supremacy, we don't need to win an election.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I agree. 2024 is a placeholder for a real challenge in 2028. Of course, things could really change over the next 4 years, but I imagine Biden will have a pretty dull term.
jm192
Footballguy
Well, and maybe it's the election we burn fighting off the Trumps. If Donald is able to run, he'll run. If he's not, one of the off-spring will. If for no other reason to "punish" the GOP for not standing up for their wanna-be-tyrant father. GOP will probably spend a lot of resources bashing/fighting the Trump segment off. After only 4 years, those embers will probably still be burning hot enough that the crazies are going to throw support behind Don Jr. or whoever.
Hopefully in 2028...
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
I'm not sure what you mean. Do you not anticipate a Trump in the 2024 GOP Primary?Lot of wishful (obsessive) thinking in this post...
Rich Conway
Footballguy
Personally, I would anticipate a Trump if the primary started today. 3 years is a long time. Who knows what can happen...
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KingPrawn
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
That I believe.
I still worry they'll run in 2024. I still worry that when they don't get through the primary, they run as an independent and split the GOP vote.
timschochet
Footballguy
So I’ve been thinking about this some more. Things have obviously changed after Wednesday.
The person with the best chance will be someone who wasn’t a part of any of Trump’s controversies, who avoided criticizing Trump, yet is not viewed as part of the Trump movement.
The closest to that is Nikki Haley.
The person with the best chance will be someone who wasn’t a part of any of Trump’s controversies, who avoided criticizing Trump, yet is not viewed as part of the Trump movement.
The closest to that is Nikki Haley.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
A Trump family member (including Donald) on the ballot as an Independent may be the greatest thing to ever happen to the Democratic Party. That’s why I think there’s a small chance one of them could get the nomination - they aren’t going away.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I think that Trump will be a potential millstone around the party's neck for the next 4-6 years..... but Romney, Christie, Haley (to a degree), Kasich, Amash........ there are 5 candidaes (IMO) who don't have the stink of Donald Trump on them, who have national exposure and who could win 232 EC votes.
I'm not one who thinks that a Biden/Harris ticket generates momentum and enthusiasm on their own. To that, without Trump as a galvanizer of Indys, moderate and liberal Repblicans and ALL Democrats....... do the D's replicate GA and AZ in 2024?
I'm not one who thinks that a Biden/Harris ticket generates momentum and enthusiasm on their own. To that, without Trump as a galvanizer of Indys, moderate and liberal Repblicans and ALL Democrats....... do the D's replicate GA and AZ in 2024?
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tri-man 47
Footballguy
Totally agree. 2024 might still be up in the air, depending on Biden's abilities and who might run if he does not. But I expect the Rs to be a very split party for a while, as you state.
RnR
Footballguy
May seem silly given the way the press has covered his Covid policy, but Ron DeSantis may be someone to watch eventually.
He's 42.
Yale undergrad.
Harvard law school.
Bronze star lieutenant commander in the Navy.
5 years as a U.S. congressman.
Sitting governor in a key Republican state.
He's 42.
Yale undergrad.
Harvard law school.
Bronze star lieutenant commander in the Navy.
5 years as a U.S. congressman.
Sitting governor in a key Republican state.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I always think of the 'wax poetically' foot in the mouth when I think of DeSantis.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/06/30/chris-cuomo-ron-desantis-florida-coronavirus-cpt-vpx.cnn
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
DeSantis is pretty much covered in the miasma of Trump, though. RNC going to want to try that tact all over again, even if they wait until 2028?
Not saying they won't, but it'd probably be a mistake.
RnR
Footballguy
Yeah, that's obviously regrettable.
Counterpoint: Joe Biden has a highlight reel of foot-in-mouth moments that is decades long, but he seems to have successfully buried that narrative.
ETA: Chris Cuomo is like nails on a chalkboard. I'm triggered by his mere presence in that video.
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dawgtrails
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
True enough. I think though that a working Governor who keeps his head down for the next few years can fumugate enough of that Trumpism that it's not a rallying cry to his opponents yet he's still "Trump enough" to court some of the people who liked Trump.
It will be interesting to see if The Right can come up with a word that describes a "Trump like" candidate without mentioning Trump. "Maverick" has already been taken. "Nationalist" is an unattractive label?
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5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
If you heard Trump’s comments as he left the White House, it is clear he intends to run.
bigbottom
Footballguy
I’d say it’s clear he intends to talk about running. I’m not sure that he thinks he can win, and he surely doesn’t want to lose again.
Rich Conway
Footballguy
I'm not so sure. He garnered far more donations, month over month, by losing than by running.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
It's clear that he intends to run and collect $$ from supporters, keep his name in the news, then not actually run.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
Cringeworthy, but I could see him running. Maybe Lord Voldemort too (Rick Scott for those outside of FL)
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