2014 Subscriber Contest is LIVE (3 Viewers)

[BaBastage]

EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.

If you want to preserve column spacings, put the stuff inside the CODE /CODE brackets.

 

[rabidsheep]

EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.

If you want to preserve column spacings, put the stuff inside the CODE /CODE brackets.

Awesome. Thanks so much!

 

[adrenaline]

I think I have my lineup if the season started today. How crazy would it be to go with 3 rookie WRs, 2 second year & 1 third year? I wanted a bigger roster but they all looked crappy, ended up with 22. 3 QB, 5 RB, 6 WR, 4 TE, 2 K, 2 TD

Not crazy at all. If you want to win you need to underpay for points, and unproven players can be a way to do that. The only part of your numbers that concern me is the 2 kickers. The prevailing wisdom seems to be 3 kickers is the way to go, at least that's what I've seen in these threads previously and my analysis tends to agree.

I'd love to hear the reasoning for taking more or less than 3 at that position.

2 reasons

1. I tried going with 3 kickers & defenses with the bigger lineups I mentioned, I just couldn't afford it with the line up I wanted.

2. My selective memory doesn't remember it being that helpful in the past.

 

[cvnpoka]

has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.

Last year I wanted to be sure not to worry about the defense slot and my other selections allowed me the budget to roll with 2 top Ds so I went with Seattle and San Fran. I didn't expect them to be the top producers (since D is notoriously difficult to predict) but I hoped they would be relatively safe and consistent bets.

Here's a sample of defensive scoring from last year:

Name Position Cost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average Points

Kansas City D $4.00 18 7 22 15 15 22 7 3 18 0 2 1 10 22 20 1 11.4375

St. Louis D $5.00 8 2 3 6 14 25 4 7 8 25 0 13 6 3 10 11 9.0625

Arizona Cardinals D $4.00 10 3 6 8 17 6 7 12 0 11 6 9 5 16 15 8 8.6875

Seattle Seahawks D $6.00 5 15 9 16 8 6 11 7 3 4 16 0 9 4 14 10 8.5625

Buffalo Bills D $3.00 13 8 4 14 5 5 14 4 2 6 18 0 8 5 11 11 8

Cincinnati Bengals D $5.00 2 6 12 3 8 7 0 20 5 11 24 0 8 0 3 18 7.9375

Carolina Panthers D $3.00 4 5 13 0 8 7 16 5 15 10 6 5 8 2 12 10 7.875

Chicago Bears D $5.00 7 13 25 7 2 13 9 0 7 2 13 2 7 2 10 4 7.6875

New England D $5.00 4 12 5 4 8 5 12 12 11 0 3 9 3 1 6 24 7.4375

San Francisco D $6.00 6 6 1 9 15 11 11 8 0 8 5 6 5 4 12 11 7.375

Tampa Bay D $4.00 9 14 5 7 0 3 2 3 6 6 15 18 4 17 2 5 7.25

Dallas Cowboys D $4.00 23 4 8 9 4 13 9 9 12 1 0 10 4 1 4 2 7.0625

Philadelphia Eagles D $3.00 11 5 5 1 9 4 6 9 7 5 8 0 11 6 5 17 6.8125

Cleveland Browns D $4.00 8 4 12 6 18 3 1 6 9 0 10 0 4 8 20 0 6.8125

Washington Redskins D $3.00 12 4 9 17 0 3 10 16 5 3 3 4 5 2 7 6 6.625

Indianapolis Colts D $3.00 5 7 7 16 12 2 12 0 1 4 2 3 9 0 10 12 6.375

Oakland Raiders D $3.00 4 5 5 9 18 5 0 9 2 13 6 2 10 3 4 7 6.375

Detroit Lions D $3.00 13 9 6 17 1 6 1 0 0 4 1 4 15 14 1 8 6.25

New York D $4.00 4 2 5 7 1 0 7 10 0 14 12 6 7 4 5 14 6.125

Baltimore Ravens D $4.00 5 5 17 8 6 7 5 0 4 11 2 9 0 8 7 2 6

Tennessee Titans D $3.00 9 12 4 19 6 12 2 0 6 7 1 4 7 0 2 4 5.9375

Pittsburgh Steelers D $5.00 3 0 2 1 0 7 1 8 5 5 8 19 2 11 9 13 5.875

Atlanta Falcons D $4.00 4 8 9 0 4 0 11 5 5 1 2 1 4 15 15 3 5.4375

New Orleans D $3.00 7 5 8 12 5 7 0 10 2 3 5 7 1 5 0 6 5.1875

San Diego D $3.00 4 3 2 5 4 3 8 0 8 4 6 7 4 8 3 5 4.625

Houston Texans D $5.00 10 6 2 9 1 0 6 0 4 7 8 3 3 1 3 1 4

This is obviously sorted by average points/week. As you can see, even the top defense only scored in double digits 9 out of 16 weeks while the next five only scored in double digits 6 out of 16 weeks.

In a perfect world my defense slot would give me at least 10 points weekly. You would have had to roster the top 4 teams on this list at a cost of $19 to get that production last year, and that's assuming you were able to predict which 4 teams would end up on top.

As I mentioned Defense has always been one of the most difficult positions to predict and my analysis leads me to believe that reliable production from that position is prohibitively expensive. Unless something changes I plan on rostering two $3 defenses this year and leveraging my funds at other positions where production is more predictable (relatively speaking). If someone were to commit to a 4-5 defense strategy it's likely they'd have a positional advantage over the other teams most weeks, but my opinion is that this would be more than offset by the disadvantage produced by the reduced budget at the other positions.

Kickers are even more of a crapshoot imho, but it's pretty much necessary to roster at least 3 kickers. You'll never have a team defense get injured or cut and leave you without points for the year whereas both are realistic outcomes with kickers.

EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.

a smart person would write a program that would parse through all the combinations of team defenses and spit out then order it by which scored the most. do this for the last 5 yrs and it would be pretty easy to tell what the best strategy would be.

likewise with kickers. the thing about kickers is that it would be a lot less susceptible to the noise since there wouldnt be situations like kc coming out of nowhere and dominating. ofc, one of the main reasons to go for 3 defenses is to increase your odds of hitting this yrs kc or carolina, or the 2012 broncos, the 2010 texans, or the 2008 saints, or the 2007 titans. cheap d's that score in the top 5.

 

[Modog814]

has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.

Last year I wanted to be sure not to worry about the defense slot and my other selections allowed me the budget to roll with 2 top Ds so I went with Seattle and San Fran. I didn't expect them to be the top producers (since D is notoriously difficult to predict) but I hoped they would be relatively safe and consistent bets.

Here's a sample of defensive scoring from last year:

Name Position Cost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average Points

Kansas City D $4.00 18 7 22 15 15 22 7 3 18 0 2 1 10 22 20 1 11.4375

St. Louis D $5.00 8 2 3 6 14 25 4 7 8 25 0 13 6 3 10 11 9.0625

Arizona Cardinals D $4.00 10 3 6 8 17 6 7 12 0 11 6 9 5 16 15 8 8.6875

Seattle Seahawks D $6.00 5 15 9 16 8 6 11 7 3 4 16 0 9 4 14 10 8.5625

Buffalo Bills D $3.00 13 8 4 14 5 5 14 4 2 6 18 0 8 5 11 11 8

Cincinnati Bengals D $5.00 2 6 12 3 8 7 0 20 5 11 24 0 8 0 3 18 7.9375

Carolina Panthers D $3.00 4 5 13 0 8 7 16 5 15 10 6 5 8 2 12 10 7.875

Chicago Bears D $5.00 7 13 25 7 2 13 9 0 7 2 13 2 7 2 10 4 7.6875

New England D $5.00 4 12 5 4 8 5 12 12 11 0 3 9 3 1 6 24 7.4375

San Francisco D $6.00 6 6 1 9 15 11 11 8 0 8 5 6 5 4 12 11 7.375

Tampa Bay D $4.00 9 14 5 7 0 3 2 3 6 6 15 18 4 17 2 5 7.25

Dallas Cowboys D $4.00 23 4 8 9 4 13 9 9 12 1 0 10 4 1 4 2 7.0625

Philadelphia Eagles D $3.00 11 5 5 1 9 4 6 9 7 5 8 0 11 6 5 17 6.8125

Cleveland Browns D $4.00 8 4 12 6 18 3 1 6 9 0 10 0 4 8 20 0 6.8125

Washington Redskins D $3.00 12 4 9 17 0 3 10 16 5 3 3 4 5 2 7 6 6.625

Indianapolis Colts D $3.00 5 7 7 16 12 2 12 0 1 4 2 3 9 0 10 12 6.375

Oakland Raiders D $3.00 4 5 5 9 18 5 0 9 2 13 6 2 10 3 4 7 6.375

Detroit Lions D $3.00 13 9 6 17 1 6 1 0 0 4 1 4 15 14 1 8 6.25

New York D $4.00 4 2 5 7 1 0 7 10 0 14 12 6 7 4 5 14 6.125

Baltimore Ravens D $4.00 5 5 17 8 6 7 5 0 4 11 2 9 0 8 7 2 6

Tennessee Titans D $3.00 9 12 4 19 6 12 2 0 6 7 1 4 7 0 2 4 5.9375

Pittsburgh Steelers D $5.00 3 0 2 1 0 7 1 8 5 5 8 19 2 11 9 13 5.875

Atlanta Falcons D $4.00 4 8 9 0 4 0 11 5 5 1 2 1 4 15 15 3 5.4375

New Orleans D $3.00 7 5 8 12 5 7 0 10 2 3 5 7 1 5 0 6 5.1875

San Diego D $3.00 4 3 2 5 4 3 8 0 8 4 6 7 4 8 3 5 4.625

Houston Texans D $5.00 10 6 2 9 1 0 6 0 4 7 8 3 3 1 3 1 4

This is obviously sorted by average points/week. As you can see, even the top defense only scored in double digits 9 out of 16 weeks while the next five only scored in double digits 6 out of 16 weeks.

In a perfect world my defense slot would give me at least 10 points weekly. You would have had to roster the top 4 teams on this list at a cost of $19 to get that production last year, and that's assuming you were able to predict which 4 teams would end up on top.

As I mentioned Defense has always been one of the most difficult positions to predict and my analysis leads me to believe that reliable production from that position is prohibitively expensive. Unless something changes I plan on rostering two $3 defenses this year and leveraging my funds at other positions where production is more predictable (relatively speaking). If someone were to commit to a 4-5 defense strategy it's likely they'd have a positional advantage over the other teams most weeks, but my opinion is that this would be more than offset by the disadvantage produced by the reduced budget at the other positions.

Kickers are even more of a crapshoot imho, but it's pretty much necessary to roster at least 3 kickers. You'll never have a team defense get injured or cut and leave you without points for the year whereas both are realistic outcomes with kickers.

EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.

a smart person would write a program that would parse through all the combinations of team defenses and spit out then order it by which scored the most. do this for the last 5 yrs and it would be pretty easy to tell what the best strategy would be.

likewise with kickers. the thing about kickers is that it would be a lot less susceptible to the noise since there wouldnt be situations like kc coming out of nowhere and dominating. ofc, one of the main reasons to go for 3 defenses is to increase your odds of hitting this yrs kc or carolina, or the 2012 broncos, the 2010 texans, or the 2008 saints, or the 2007 titans. cheap d's that score in the top 5.

I did something like this last year (or maybe 2 years ago). IIRC, Adding a 3rd defense (regardless of cost) added about 2-3 points to your expected weekly average. A 4th defense added about an additional 1 point (so 3-4 total). I didn't break it down by cost.

 

[Bamac]

Checked this morning, and my kickers were Feely and Henery, so I needed to swap them out for two different $3 guys. Ended up overhauling the entire roster.

 

[FBALLGUY]

Just wondering if Jimmy Graham is a must have? I typically don't spend big on TE, preferring 2-3 mid to small $ guys. Made it to week 13 last year...best performance yet. But it seems Graham is a pretty popular choice among successful teams.

Thoughts?

 

[cheese]

I think the top teams will spend on Graham or Gronk.

 

[HairySasquatch]

Current team as of right now:

QBs - 3 - $32

RBs - 7 - $95

Wrs - 9 - $70

Te - 4 - $29

Def - 3 - $14

Pk - 3 - $10

I don't think my roster could get more average than it is right now...at least based on price set up in this contest. There are no big names, so I'm going to need a few guys to break through and play above their predictions.

This is my first big roster team at 29 players. I have always been between 18 and 23 in the past. There were even some years I would roll with 1 QB. I think the farthest I have gotten in this competition is week 12. Injuries are usually the culprit for causing me to lose.

My biggest change has been at WR. I don't have any big names here. I have been burned here the last couple of years with the injury bug to my highest priced guy. That's probably not a good reason to avoid them, but I feel that I have put together a group of solid guys that will hold their own once the season starts. There are a couple cheap WR that I feel will produce so I was able to cut back on the $ from that position.

I'm also taking a chance at TE. I'm just hoping that 2 out of the 4 get into the top 15.....and that one will bust out and be this years Jordan Cameron.

I spent the most money at RB...this should be an area of strength on my team.

At QB I went with 2 middle of the pack guys and a cheap flyer who looks good in the pre-season.

This is the most I have spent at DEF....I usually go with three $3 defenses and never put up consistent points. I spent a little more to try to get a bump this year.

 

[massraider]

Just wondering if Jimmy Graham is a must have? I typically don't spend big on TE, preferring 2-3 mid to small $ guys. Made it to week 13 last year...best performance yet. But it seems Graham is a pretty popular choice among successful teams.

Thoughts?

Think you could make a pretty strong argument for Manning and Graham, stating with those two, and going from there.

 

[HairySasquatch]

Just wondering if Jimmy Graham is a must have? I typically don't spend big on TE, preferring 2-3 mid to small $ guys. Made it to week 13 last year...best performance yet. But it seems Graham is a pretty popular choice among successful teams.

Thoughts?

Think you could make a pretty strong argument for Manning and Graham, stating with those two, and going from there.

I did just that to see what I could make....was able to keep most of team intact except for the TE and QB position. I went from a 29 sized roster to 25. QB and TE were very thin after this because I didn't want to sacrifice the depth at WR or RB....and really, if you are going Peyton and Jimmy, you don't want to spend very much on a backup anyway because in theory you should never have to use them. Heck, with Denver having a week 4 bye week, you could be tempted to go with only 1 QB. The Saints have a week 6 bye....I'd be a little more hesitant to ride with only one at that position.

So, would you rather have:

A) Peyton Manning and Bortles

B) Stafford and Roethlisberger

C) Brady, Newton, and Bortles

D) Wilson, Kaepernick, and Bortles

and

A) Jimmy Graham and J. Amaro

B) Rudolph and Olson

C) Clay, Ebron, and D. Allen

It's not as easy as just comparing those two position since you have to come up points to cover to flex positions. So....what route do you take?

 

[cvnpoka]

has anyone done any analysis into how many more points an extra kicker or defense adds. like, does 3 random cheap defense outscore higher priced options? similary, how does 3 random cheap kickers do? wish i had a way to cheaply query weekly scores to figure it out.

Last year I wanted to be sure not to worry about the defense slot and my other selections allowed me the budget to roll with 2 top Ds so I went with Seattle and San Fran. I didn't expect them to be the top producers (since D is notoriously difficult to predict) but I hoped they would be relatively safe and consistent bets.

Here's a sample of defensive scoring from last year:

Name Position Cost 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average Points

Kansas City D $4.00 18 7 22 15 15 22 7 3 18 0 2 1 10 22 20 1 11.4375

St. Louis D $5.00 8 2 3 6 14 25 4 7 8 25 0 13 6 3 10 11 9.0625

Arizona Cardinals D $4.00 10 3 6 8 17 6 7 12 0 11 6 9 5 16 15 8 8.6875

Seattle Seahawks D $6.00 5 15 9 16 8 6 11 7 3 4 16 0 9 4 14 10 8.5625

Buffalo Bills D $3.00 13 8 4 14 5 5 14 4 2 6 18 0 8 5 11 11 8

Cincinnati Bengals D $5.00 2 6 12 3 8 7 0 20 5 11 24 0 8 0 3 18 7.9375

Carolina Panthers D $3.00 4 5 13 0 8 7 16 5 15 10 6 5 8 2 12 10 7.875

Chicago Bears D $5.00 7 13 25 7 2 13 9 0 7 2 13 2 7 2 10 4 7.6875

New England D $5.00 4 12 5 4 8 5 12 12 11 0 3 9 3 1 6 24 7.4375

San Francisco D $6.00 6 6 1 9 15 11 11 8 0 8 5 6 5 4 12 11 7.375

Tampa Bay D $4.00 9 14 5 7 0 3 2 3 6 6 15 18 4 17 2 5 7.25

Dallas Cowboys D $4.00 23 4 8 9 4 13 9 9 12 1 0 10 4 1 4 2 7.0625

Philadelphia Eagles D $3.00 11 5 5 1 9 4 6 9 7 5 8 0 11 6 5 17 6.8125

Cleveland Browns D $4.00 8 4 12 6 18 3 1 6 9 0 10 0 4 8 20 0 6.8125

Washington Redskins D $3.00 12 4 9 17 0 3 10 16 5 3 3 4 5 2 7 6 6.625

Indianapolis Colts D $3.00 5 7 7 16 12 2 12 0 1 4 2 3 9 0 10 12 6.375

Oakland Raiders D $3.00 4 5 5 9 18 5 0 9 2 13 6 2 10 3 4 7 6.375

Detroit Lions D $3.00 13 9 6 17 1 6 1 0 0 4 1 4 15 14 1 8 6.25

New York D $4.00 4 2 5 7 1 0 7 10 0 14 12 6 7 4 5 14 6.125

Baltimore Ravens D $4.00 5 5 17 8 6 7 5 0 4 11 2 9 0 8 7 2 6

Tennessee Titans D $3.00 9 12 4 19 6 12 2 0 6 7 1 4 7 0 2 4 5.9375

Pittsburgh Steelers D $5.00 3 0 2 1 0 7 1 8 5 5 8 19 2 11 9 13 5.875

Atlanta Falcons D $4.00 4 8 9 0 4 0 11 5 5 1 2 1 4 15 15 3 5.4375

New Orleans D $3.00 7 5 8 12 5 7 0 10 2 3 5 7 1 5 0 6 5.1875

San Diego D $3.00 4 3 2 5 4 3 8 0 8 4 6 7 4 8 3 5 4.625

Houston Texans D $5.00 10 6 2 9 1 0 6 0 4 7 8 3 3 1 3 1 4

This is obviously sorted by average points/week. As you can see, even the top defense only scored in double digits 9 out of 16 weeks while the next five only scored in double digits 6 out of 16 weeks.

In a perfect world my defense slot would give me at least 10 points weekly. You would have had to roster the top 4 teams on this list at a cost of $19 to get that production last year, and that's assuming you were able to predict which 4 teams would end up on top.

As I mentioned Defense has always been one of the most difficult positions to predict and my analysis leads me to believe that reliable production from that position is prohibitively expensive. Unless something changes I plan on rostering two $3 defenses this year and leveraging my funds at other positions where production is more predictable (relatively speaking). If someone were to commit to a 4-5 defense strategy it's likely they'd have a positional advantage over the other teams most weeks, but my opinion is that this would be more than offset by the disadvantage produced by the reduced budget at the other positions.

Kickers are even more of a crapshoot imho, but it's pretty much necessary to roster at least 3 kickers. You'll never have a team defense get injured or cut and leave you without points for the year whereas both are realistic outcomes with kickers.

EDIT: Tried to fix the formatting on my table of scores, with only limited success.

a smart person would write a program that would parse through all the combinations of team defenses and spit out then order it by which scored the most. do this for the last 5 yrs and it would be pretty easy to tell what the best strategy would be.

likewise with kickers. the thing about kickers is that it would be a lot less susceptible to the noise since there wouldnt be situations like kc coming out of nowhere and dominating. ofc, one of the main reasons to go for 3 defenses is to increase your odds of hitting this yrs kc or carolina, or the 2012 broncos, the 2010 texans, or the 2008 saints, or the 2007 titans. cheap d's that score in the top 5.

I did something like this last year (or maybe 2 years ago). IIRC, Adding a 3rd defense (regardless of cost) added about 2-3 points to your expected weekly average. A 4th defense added about an additional 1 point (so 3-4 total). I didn't break it down by cost.

ty for this info.

 

[Bamac]

I think the top teams will spend on Graham or Gronk.

Or both.

 

[chocula]

Hey all, I just wanted to put this out there so hopefully someone else can run with something similar. I wont be doing the gameday scoring thing that I've done in the past. I appreciate those that have supported it over the years, but with 2 young kids and a busy consulting job, it's just too much extra work for me to take on this year.

This dude wrote some software that a tech savvy person could use to integrate into a website or google spreadsheet or something.. https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame

The last two years, I wrote custom code to access and convert stats from the same source he was (NFL Gameday JSON API) to run the FBG35K Gameday Tracker.

I'm still looking forward to this contest, I just cant invest the time in this software again. Best of luck to everyone.

Just killed this contest for me. Your software was one of the best parts of this contest.

I understand though and appreciate you doing it in the past.

 

[chocula]

I usually rush through the first round of my selections and post it for some good laughs.

I am REALLY struggling this year as I have not looked at, listened to nor even tried to read about fantasy football or football in general since the super bowl.

I will be watching this thread carefully for some advice. '

My big change since reading this thread is to NOT have Witten and Graham at TE.

Yes, i will make many changes and picked up a few things from this thread so far..

Here it is, try not to laugh too much:

QB - Andrew Luck - IND/10 - $20
QB - Tony Romo - DAL/11 - $14
QB - Michael Vick - NYJ/11 - $4
RB - Reggie Bush - DET/9 - $23
RB - Ray Rice - BAL/11 - $18
RB - Frank Gore - SF/8 - $16
RB - Mike Tolbert - CAR/12 - $4
RB - Denard Robinson - JAX/11 - $3
RB - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - CIN/4 - $2
WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $25
WR - Alshon Jeffery - CHI/9 - $24
WR - Golden Tate - DET/9 - $13
WR - Danny Amendola - NE/10 - $13
WR - Malcom Floyd - SD/10 - $4
WR - Lance Moore - PIT/12 - $3
WR - Mohamed Sanu - CIN/4 - $3
TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/6 - $30
TE - David Ausberry - OAK/5 - $6
PK - Steve Hauschka - SEA/4 - $6
PK - Dan Bailey - DAL/11 - $4
PK - Graham Gano - CAR/12 - $3
TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/8 - $7
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/9 - $5

Total value: 250

 

[maf005]

I think the top teams will spend on Graham or Gronk.

Or both.

You mean to tell me there are brackets without both?

 

[benbadman]

I usually rush through the first round of my selections and post it for some good laughs.

I am REALLY struggling this year as I have not looked at, listened to nor even tried to read about fantasy football or football in general since the super bowl.

I will be watching this thread carefully for some advice. '

My big change since reading this thread is to NOT have Witten and Graham at TE.

Yes, i will make many changes and picked up a few things from this thread so far..

Here it is, try not to laugh too much:

QB - Andrew Luck - IND/10 - $20

QB - Tony Romo - DAL/11 - $14

QB - Michael Vick - NYJ/11 - $4

RB - Reggie Bush - DET/9 - $23

RB - Ray Rice - BAL/11 - $18

RB - Frank Gore - SF/8 - $16

RB - Mike Tolbert - CAR/12 - $4

RB - Denard Robinson - JAX/11 - $3

RB - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - CIN/4 - $2

WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $25

WR - Alshon Jeffery - CHI/9 - $24

WR - Golden Tate - DET/9 - $13

WR - Danny Amendola - NE/10 - $13

WR - Malcom Floyd - SD/10 - $4

WR - Lance Moore - PIT/12 - $3

WR - Mohamed Sanu - CIN/4 - $3

TE - Jimmy Graham - NO/6 - $30

TE - David Ausberry - OAK/5 - $6

PK - Steve Hauschka - SEA/4 - $6

PK - Dan Bailey - DAL/11 - $4

PK - Graham Gano - CAR/12 - $3

TD - San Francisco 49ers - SF/8 - $7

TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/9 - $5

Total value: 250

i have a pretty similar strategy, Graham plus two stud WRs, and try to go cheap at RB

interesting you went with two defenses for $12 rather than four $3 defenses or three $4 defenses

considered dumping vick and rolling the dice with 2QB, and throw another dart at WR? or upgrade a cheap dart to a $6 to $7 dart

 

[Organized Chaos]

Hey all, I just wanted to put this out there so hopefully someone else can run with something similar. I wont be doing the gameday scoring thing that I've done in the past. I appreciate those that have supported it over the years, but with 2 young kids and a busy consulting job, it's just too much extra work for me to take on this year.

This dude wrote some software that a tech savvy person could use to integrate into a website or google spreadsheet or something.. https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame

The last two years, I wrote custom code to access and convert stats from the same source he was (NFL Gameday JSON API) to run the FBG35K Gameday Tracker.

I'm still looking forward to this contest, I just cant invest the time in this software again. Best of luck to everyone.

Just killed this contest for me. Your software was one of the best parts of this contest.

I understand though and appreciate you doing it in the past.

I appreciate it man, sounds like Iggy will have something to replace it. I'm looking forward to it, because I love seeing the live stats and I it will kill me that I'm not doing it this year, but I am happy Iggy decided to run with it!

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Can't decide on whether to spend $20-25 on a 3rd RB or splitting it and going with 4 RBs.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Now down to 24 players. This will change again.

-QG

 

[rabidsheep]

Now down to 24 players. This will change again.

-QG

I've gone from 18 players to 26 and currently sitting at 22. And that's just this morning....

 

[QuizGuy66]

Now down to 24 players. This will change again.

-QG

I've gone from 18 players to 26 and currently sitting at 22. And that's just this morning....

Now 23.

-QG

 

[mphtrilogy]

Your team has been successfully entered.

4 QB -
5 RB
5 WR -

2TE
3 PK

2 TD

Total value: 249

20th version

 

[Bankerguy]

Your team has been successfully entered.

4 QB -

5 RB

5 WR -

2TE

3 PK

2 TD

Total value: 249

20th version

I wish there was a tracker that kept track of all of the various entries we submit. No doubt I am well over 100.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Your team has been successfully entered.

4 QB -

5 RB

5 WR -

2TE

3 PK

2 TD

Total value: 249

20th version

I wish there was a tracker that kept track of all of the various entries we submit. No doubt I am well over 100.

Technically I think there's one in the back-end but alas I think the Turk does not have the time or resources to make the Super-Turk-O-Matic that would be able to track all of this

-QG

 

[chocula]

We need some more chatter here. Trying to figure this year out.

 

[Phenomena]

I must be getting close to a final version. Haven't changed my roster in 6 days now.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I must be getting close to a final version. Haven't changed my roster in 6 days now.

I'm in a similar situation. Which means I'll probalby make like 10 changes to my roster right against the deadline again.

-QG

 

[Dodge]

First time in a lot of year's I'm attempting to put together the #1 stud in 2 positions with lower pick and then go middle/low grade in other positions + 3x DEF + 3x K.

 

[QuizGuy66]

And with that I made some changes...

back to 24 now.

-QG

 

[Obamassiah]

Every year there are one or two obvious value plays that end up being on every single roster. Last year it was Julius Thomas ($2), in 2011 it was Antonio Brown ($3).

So, which cheap <$10) player(s) will be on the most rosters?

I think the most rostered player this year might end up being K Benjamin ($5).

 

[GDogg]

My breakdown is as follows:

2 QB - $23

8 RB - $56

11 WR - $79

3 TE - $64

3 K - $9

3 DEF - $9

30 total players.

 

[Phenomena]

There are definilately two that should be on every roster but I'm not going to share which two...

 

[Beefeaters]

Every year there are one or two obvious value plays that end up being on every single roster. Last year it was Julius Thomas ($2), in 2011 it was Antonio Brown ($3).

So, which cheap <$10) player(s) will be on the most rosters?

I think the most rostered player this year might end up being K Benjamin ($5).

Why would you want to tell other people this information before the deadline?

 

[Obamassiah]

Because the number of people who read this thread <<<<<<<<<<<< the number of people who participate in this contest.

 

[cdubz]

Every year there are one or two obvious value plays that end up being on every single roster. Last year it was Julius Thomas ($2), in 2011 it was Antonio Brown ($3).

So, which cheap <$10) player(s) will be on the most rosters?

I think the most rostered player this year might end up being K Benjamin ($5).

Benji is a good one, I think the most rostered players are definitely going to be WRs this year. Not a lot of great cheapos at QB/RB/TE.

John Brown and Markus Wheaton are probably other candidates.

 

[SDJohnny]

Personally I think Mychal Rivera ($3) is a nice bargain at TE. Footballguys seems pretty down on him this year. Not sure why.

 

[urbanhack]

thanks for all the nuggets guys.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Because the number of people who read this thread <<<<<<<<<<<< the number of people who participate in this contest.

yeah but it's all s in this thread

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Oh and Jay Feely. I think everyone will have Jay Feely.



-QG

 

[cdubz]

Personally I think Mychal Rivera ($3) is a nice bargain at TE. Footballguys seems pretty down on him this year. Not sure why.

Heath Cummings has been a fan on Twitter I believe, but yeah not a lot of love for him otherwise. Checking FBG redraft PPR ranks, Cummings surprisingly only has him at TE24. Surprisingly, because I thought he would be highest and Bloom has him at TE21.

 

[chocula]

Every year there are one or two obvious value plays that end up being on every single roster. Last year it was Julius Thomas ($2), in 2011 it was Antonio Brown ($3).

So, which cheap <$10) player(s) will be on the most rosters?

I think the most rostered player this year might end up being K Benjamin ($5).

Arian Foster as well

Finding these deals is my problem this year

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Every year there are one or two obvious value plays that end up being on every single roster. Last year it was Julius Thomas ($2), in 2011 it was Antonio Brown ($3).

So, which cheap <$10) player(s) will be on the most rosters?

I think the most rostered player this year might end up being K Benjamin ($5).

It's exciting to think that he might catch 70 and score 7 times, but there are a half dozen other value plays under $10 which even higher ceilings.

Benjamin is currently on my roster, but he's hanging on by his fingernails.

 

[Phenomena]

I was wondering why the Lions kicker was so cheap $3... then I looked at last year's kicking stats for all teams. As prolific as the Lions' offense was last year, Hanson was 31st in scoring for the position. That's shocking. And this year it's a 1st year doing it, so I guess I understand it now.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I was wondering why the Lions kicker was so cheap $3... then I looked at last year's kicking stats for all teams. As prolific as the Lions' offense was last year, Hanson was 31st in scoring for the position. That's shocking. And this year it's a 1st year doing it, so I guess I understand it now.

Um, Hanson wasn't on the Lions last year

-QG

 

[eric rymer]

Love the contest. Always fun except how many times I redo this thing. I gotta say though, I really miss the $1 players.

 

[rabidsheep]

Every year there are one or two obvious value plays that end up being on every single roster. Last year it was Julius Thomas ($2), in 2011 it was Antonio Brown ($3).

So, which cheap <$10) player(s) will be on the most rosters?

I think the most rostered player this year might end up being K Benjamin ($5).

Why would you want to tell other people this information before the deadline?

This kind of thinking is very misguided, imho.

The fact is that the winner of the league isn't going to be determined by skill or analysis. It's going to be luck.

After lurking here for over a decade I've discovered that I'm pretty good at fantasy football, but when I get my head together with two or three other guys of equal skill we all perform better.

Here's my current philosophy:

If all of the sharks came together in this thread and openly discussed their strategies, value players, etc. we would come to an agreement on some consensus good picks. The net result is that we would all (in theory) be better off and most of us would advance further than we would have had we simply done our own analysis and kept it to ourselves.

The fact is that even in that scenario we would still draft distinct teams. I guarantee that we each have our own biases and gut instincts about certain teams, players, and coaching staff that will ultimately lead to minor differences even among the most educated. Look at the teams drafted by the Fooballguys staff. These are guys that do fantasy analysis professionally, and you know they collaborate on their rankings. And they still draft widely differing rosters in this contest.

Even if we did come up with some kind of "consensus" best team, the odds of that being the team that wins are astronomically low. Fantasy Football is an art, with a huge amount of random built in due to weather, injuries, and the lovely human factor.

My feeling is that the rising tide lifts all boats, and the more we share with each other the better the chance we find ourselves competing in the last few weeks. After that, it boils down to who happens to pick those one or two guys that overperform late in the season or that sleeper WR that comes out of nowhere against the backup cornerback that was pressed into service because the starter went down to a sprained ankle or concussion on the second play of the game.

It's definitely possible that one of you has an amazing, unique insight that will give you an edge going into the contest. It's also far more likely that at least two or three other people in this thread have a similar insight and by sharing you could gain much much more than you lost by including theirs into your calculations.

Finally, the odds of any single person winning are prohibitively low. The chances of us maximizing our enjoyment by sharing and participating in a stimulating discussion is extremely high. Over the years I've found the community here with it's insight and humor to be one of the best assets of the site and is one of the reasons that I subscribe each year. I really appreciate those like Quizguy and especially ignoratio Elenchi that are active here season after season, and it's my hope that as time goes on that I can bring something interesting to the table like they have.

Anyhow, that's simply my opinion. I don't expect anyone to agree, and honestly I don't need to hear why I'm wrong. Ultimately I play fantasy football, including this contest, to have fun. I'm pretty sure that the more people that are willing to participate in this discussion, the more fun I'll have. There's also a pretty good chance that collaboration can actually increase my chances of lasting longer in the contest. To me, it's win-win for everyone that joins in.

 

[Worm]

First time in a lot of year's I'm attempting to put together the #1 stud in 2 positions with lower pick and then go middle/low grade in other positions + 3x DEF + 3x K.

Similar strategy for me. In the past I've gone for projected value and depth and it hasn't worked out. The winner every year seems to have studs + hit on a few sleepers and catch the right breaks.

 

[rzrback77]

Awesome post about the contest, but is the crux of what the Shark Pool is all about. Contributing to the overall sharing of knowledge to assist all members!

 

[(HULK)]

This is getting close to final, but I'm fine sharing. Hope others do too. Feel free to critique:

QB - Tom Brady - NE/10 - $17
QB - Jake Locker - TEN/9 - $7
RB - LeSean McCoy - PHI/7 - $34
RB - Alfred Morris - WAS/10 - $20
RB - Knowshon Moreno - MIA/5 - $13
RB - Carlos Hyde - SF/8 - $10
RB - Mark Ingram - NO/6 - $9
RB - Jonathan Stewart - CAR/12 - $5
WR - Julio Jones - ATL/9 - $25
WR - Cordarrelle Patterson - MIN/10 - $18
WR - Brandin Cooks - NO/6 - $14
WR - Anquan Boldin - SF/8 - $9
WR - Justin Hunter - TEN/9 - $9
WR - Cody Latimer - DEN/4 - $6
WR - Kelvin Benjamin - CAR/12 - $5
TE - Julius Thomas - DEN/4 - $26
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/6 - $8
PK - Greg Zuerlein - STL/4 - $3
PK - Shayne Graham - NO/6 - $3
PK - Blair Walsh - MIN/10 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/10 - $3
TD - Pittsburgh Steelers - PIT/12 - $3

Total value: 250