2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[Puppies]

I need to go scour last year's thread, I recall someone having some interesting statistics on team size vs survival.

Via @TheWinz

QB roster makeup heading into the finals

1 QB - 4 teams (all have Hurts)
2 QB's - 109 teams
3 QB's - 88 teams
4 QB's - 23 teams
5 QB's - 1 team

Via @Puppies

Statistical Trivia - Final Edition (for the 14-week regular season qualifying period)

Overall Survival Rate for the Entire Contest = 1.83%

Highest Survival Rates by Roster Size

28 = 4.07%
27 = 4.06%
24 = 3.50%
25 = 3.37%
30 = 3.10%

Lowest Survival Rates by Roster Size
18 = 1.19%
19 = 1.23%
22 = 1.79%
21 = 2.02%
20 = 2.16%

Average Cut Line - all 14 weeks = 131.34
Average Cut line - 2 teams on bye = 139.98
Average Cut line - 4 teams on bye = 123.89
Average Cut liine - 6 teams on bye = 131.25

Highest Cut line = 145.10 Week 13 (6 teams on bye)
Lowest Cut Line = 117.00 Week 11 (4 teams on bye)

Average cut line movement for a single Monday Night game = 6.06 points
Highest Movement = 8.35 (week 5; No teams on bye)
Lowest Movement = 2.40 (week 13 - 2 teams on bye)

The survival rate data during the qualifying period is as you would expect, but how does it compare to the finals data? Has there ever been a year where a 27-28 roster size won or placed in the top 10?

Also I suspect the survival rate for a smaller roster size where all players stayed healthy is likely much higher than the survival rate for the field.

I recall the top teams in the finals were much closer to 18 players than 28.

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

Yes that was my recollection as well. It would be interesting to see the survival rates for roster sizes where all players stayed healthy and played in all their games. My guess is the results would flip.

Injuries are inevitable, and this season won't be any different. If you have any doubts, just look at all the pre-season injuries so far.

The odds of someone accurately predicting which players will not get hurt are probably at least equal to (if not longer than) the odds of predicting which players will score the most points. So while rostering a team with fewer players allows you to theoretically pick players more likely to score more points, it also puts you one or two injuries away from elimination.

I kept stats on this all last season (as noted above) and I updated them and posted the trends here weekly as they developed. The secret to success in this contest is identifying value players, which are likely to outplay their cap values. Doing so results in the best of both worlds - a deeper roster with enough players to successfully navigate bye weeks, and one that also has more “stud” players who score a lot of points.

If we assumed that there would be no injuries, and we assume that the stat projections posted by various gurus were actually accurate, it would be possible to pick the contest winning lineup by simply navigating and managing the bye weeks. But we all know that the odds of these first two assumptions actually being true, are zero. That’s what makes this contest so much fun.

So I believe your odds of winning this contest with an 18 player lineup are much slimmer than the odds of winning it with a deeper lineup. The key question is… how deep? The answer to that depends on how many “value” players you successfully identify and roster.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I need to go scour last year's thread, I recall someone having some interesting statistics on team size vs survival.

Via @TheWinz

QB roster makeup heading into the finals

1 QB - 4 teams (all have Hurts)
2 QB's - 109 teams
3 QB's - 88 teams
4 QB's - 23 teams
5 QB's - 1 team

Via @Puppies

Statistical Trivia - Final Edition (for the 14-week regular season qualifying period)

Overall Survival Rate for the Entire Contest = 1.83%

Highest Survival Rates by Roster Size

28 = 4.07%
27 = 4.06%
24 = 3.50%
25 = 3.37%
30 = 3.10%

Lowest Survival Rates by Roster Size
18 = 1.19%
19 = 1.23%
22 = 1.79%
21 = 2.02%
20 = 2.16%

Average Cut Line - all 14 weeks = 131.34
Average Cut line - 2 teams on bye = 139.98
Average Cut line - 4 teams on bye = 123.89
Average Cut liine - 6 teams on bye = 131.25

Highest Cut line = 145.10 Week 13 (6 teams on bye)
Lowest Cut Line = 117.00 Week 11 (4 teams on bye)

Average cut line movement for a single Monday Night game = 6.06 points
Highest Movement = 8.35 (week 5; No teams on bye)
Lowest Movement = 2.40 (week 13 - 2 teams on bye)

The survival rate data during the qualifying period is as you would expect, but how does it compare to the finals data? Has there ever been a year where a 27-28 roster size won or placed in the top 10?

Also I suspect the survival rate for a smaller roster size where all players stayed healthy is likely much higher than the survival rate for the field.

I recall the top teams in the finals were much closer to 18 players than 28.

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

Yes that was my recollection as well. It would be interesting to see the survival rates for roster sizes where all players stayed healthy and played in all their games. My guess is the results would flip.

Injuries are inevitable, and this season won't be any different. If you have any doubts, just look at all the pre-season injuries so far.

The odds of someone accurately predicting which players will not get hurt are probably at least equal to (if not longer than) the odds of predicting which players will score the most points. So while rostering a team with fewer players allows you to theoretically pick players more likely to score more points, it also puts you one or two injuries away from elimination.

I kept stats on this all last season (as noted above) and I updated them and posted the trends here weekly as they developed. The secret to success in this contest is identifying value players, which are likely to outplay their cap values. Doing so results in the best of both worlds - a deeper roster with enough players to successfully navigate bye weeks, and one that also has more “stud” players who score a lot of points.

If we assumed that there would be no injuries, and we assume that the stat projections posted by various gurus were actually accurate, it would be possible to pick the contest winning lineup by simply navigating and managing the bye weeks. But we all know that the odds of these first two assumptions actually being true, are zero. That’s what makes this contest so much fun.

The bottom line is your odds of winning this contest with an 18 player lineup are much longer than the odds of winning it with a deeper lineup. The key question is… how deep? The answer to that depends on how many “value” players you successfully identify and roster.

Agree re: value players, but even in the data you shared the survival rate did not increase each time for roster size +1. For example, the survival rate was higher for 20 vs 21,22 and 24 vs 25,30. I know it's only one season of data but there were a ton of top $$$ players that missed games. 2022 was the worst year that I can remember on that front.

Going on last season's data, the 24 roster size seemed like the sweet spot for survival rate. What was the roster size for the team that won?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

 

[TwinTurbo]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

I also typically utilize the same strategy. And like you said, if even 10% of your budget ends up as dead money in the form of a single player, your roster is DOA regardless of the roster size. Even if you hit on some of the value players, that >$25 miss will be too much to overcome. And that's where more granular analysis would be useful on the survival rates. I'm still convinced smaller roster size is by far the right strategy if the goal is to win the contest, rather than simply advance to the finals. I would be more interested to see the rosters sizes of teams that won over the years instead of the survival rates.

This season there are 33 players that are $25 or higher. There is close to a zero percent chance they all stay healthy and perform to expectations. But that's what makes this contest fun. You could create a large roster that includes only players under $25 from the rest of the field. It would likely survive longer, but it probably wouldn't have enough firepower to win it all.

 

[TheWinz]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

I also typically utilize the same strategy. And like you said, if even 10% of your budget ends up as dead money in the form of a single player, your roster is DOA regardless of the roster size. Even if you hit on some of the value players, that >$25 miss will be too much to overcome. And that's where more granular analysis would be useful on the survival rates. I'm still convinced smaller roster size is by far the right strategy if the goal is to win the contest, rather than simply advance to the finals. I would be more interested to see the rosters sizes of teams that won over the years instead of the survival rates.

Just a few years ago, you used to be able to go back many years to gather this data, but it's not "out there" anymore. Heck, you can't even clink on a link to a team from last year's thread. I'm afraid the only data from year's past will be from people that happened to save it themselves.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

I also typically utilize the same strategy. And like you said, if even 10% of your budget ends up as dead money in the form of a single player, your roster is DOA regardless of the roster size. Even if you hit on some of the value players, that >$25 miss will be too much to overcome. And that's where more granular analysis would be useful on the survival rates. I'm still convinced smaller roster size is by far the right strategy if the goal is to win the contest, rather than simply advance to the finals. I would be more interested to see the rosters sizes of teams that won over the years instead of the survival rates.

Just a few years ago, you used to be able to go back many years to gather this data, but it's not "out there" anymore. Heck, you can't even clink on a link to a team from last year's thread. I'm afraid the only data from year's past will be from people that happened to save it themselves.

Didn’t someone have a spreadsheet going every year?

 

[a_troll00]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

I also typically utilize the same strategy. And like you said, if even 10% of your budget ends up as dead money in the form of a single player, your roster is DOA regardless of the roster size. Even if you hit on some of the value players, that >$25 miss will be too much to overcome. And that's where more granular analysis would be useful on the survival rates. I'm still convinced smaller roster size is by far the right strategy if the goal is to win the contest, rather than simply advance to the finals. I would be more interested to see the rosters sizes of teams that won over the years instead of the survival rates.

This season there are 33 players that are $25 or higher. There is close to a zero percent chance they all stay healthy and perform to expectations. But that's what makes this contest fun. You could create a large roster that includes only players under $25 from the rest of the field. It would likely survive longer, but it probably wouldn't have enough firepower to win it all.

IMO, it's much more difficult now to build a larger roster now than several years ago. They've done an excellent job of updating the pricing of players, and $2-3 dollar sleepers used to abound. Now those sleepers cost $6-10 and if you miss, it hurts!

I've built bigger rosters, small rosters and there's risks to both. Yeah, with a small roster, a couple of key injuries and you're toast. Though, here's the risk with a larger roster: you got a nice collection of value players and some rise up this week or that week to give you 10-15 pts, and you get enough of them firing to get you to next week. That is, until two significantly owned players go off for 40 pts each and you just don't have the firepower to keep up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That is, until two significantly owned players go off for 40 pts each and you just don't have the firepower to keep up.

That’s where balance is so important.

You must have at least 1 stud per position.

Of course that’s also where hitting on upside sleepers matters as well.

But overall yes - you have to be able to keep up with those boom players, so the deeper you get, the less likely that is due to the economy of the game.

I really miss $2 k & d/st though

 

[scottybo]

Based on a few teams that went deep in the contest last year, this entry is up for grabs. Not going to use it, but feel free to if you want:

QB - Josh Allen - BUF/13 - $25
RB - Christian McCaffrey - SF/9 - $34
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/5 - $34
WR - Justin Jefferson - MIN/13 - $37
WR - Ja'Marr Chase - CIN/7 - $36
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
PK - Cameron Dicker - LAC/5 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Cade York - CLE/5 - $4
PK - Joey Slye - WAS/14 - $4
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/13 - $4
PK - Jason Sanders - MIA/10 - $4
PK - Riley Patterson - DET/9 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Michael Badgley - WAS/14 - $3
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
TD - Philadelphia Eagles - PHI/10 - $7

 

[Dez]

I

I have the same plan I have had for the past 10 years not seeing it either.

just clicked the link & did it in a browser on my phone.

I see it now on the site. I don't have a cell phone.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't have a cell phone.

in 2023?

That's unheard of.

 

[Puppies]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

... and additionally, when the "value player" you've been riding suddenly gets upstaged by his team trading for another player, who takes away touches (and value) from your value player.

... or when your player gets traded to another team with a different bye week, and that hoses up your bye week management.

 

[Ackme]

here is my fifth iteration....

this afternoon

QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/5 - $34
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/13 - $31
RB - Rashaad Penny - PHI/10 - $10
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Olave - NO/11 - $27
WR - K.J. Osborn - MIN/13 - $9
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Corey Davis - NYJ/7 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Dalton Schultz - HOU/7 - $14
TE - Luke Musgrave - GB/6 - $6
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/13 - $4
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

here is my fifth iteration....

this afternoon

QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/5 - $34
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/13 - $31
RB - Rashaad Penny - PHI/10 - $10
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Olave - NO/11 - $27
WR - K.J. Osborn - MIN/13 - $9
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Corey Davis - NYJ/7 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Dalton Schultz - HOU/7 - $14
TE - Luke Musgrave - GB/6 - $6
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/13 - $4
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

5 down, 374 to go

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I never wanna jinx it, but as if now I have
2 QB
5 RB
7 WR
2 TE
2 K
3 D/ST

I am not sure if this lineup will stand. I might scrap the whole thing. That said, I kinda like it.

For now.

 

[Ackme]

The 2 QB makes me nervous for injury risk but I think the payoff for stud numbers most weeks make it worthwhile.

Until I chicken out.

 

[TwinTurbo]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

I also typically utilize the same strategy. And like you said, if even 10% of your budget ends up as dead money in the form of a single player, your roster is DOA regardless of the roster size. Even if you hit on some of the value players, that >$25 miss will be too much to overcome. And that's where more granular analysis would be useful on the survival rates. I'm still convinced smaller roster size is by far the right strategy if the goal is to win the contest, rather than simply advance to the finals. I would be more interested to see the rosters sizes of teams that won over the years instead of the survival rates.

This season there are 33 players that are $25 or higher. There is close to a zero percent chance they all stay healthy and perform to expectations. But that's what makes this contest fun. You could create a large roster that includes only players under $25 from the rest of the field. It would likely survive longer, but it probably wouldn't have enough firepower to win it all.

IMO, it's much more difficult now to build a larger roster now than several years ago. They've done an excellent job of updating the pricing of players, and $2-3 dollar sleepers used to abound. Now those sleepers cost $6-10 and if you miss, it hurts!

I've built bigger rosters, small rosters and there's risks to both. Yeah, with a small roster, a couple of key injuries and you're toast. Though, here's the risk with a larger roster: you got a nice collection of value players and some rise up this week or that week to give you 10-15 pts, and you get enough of them firing to get you to next week. That is, until two significantly owned players go off for 40 pts each and you just don't have the firepower to keep up.

I do think they did a great job with the pricing, as there doesn't appear to be a clear cohort of value players that will be highly owned.

 

[Puppies]

The top teams were those that nailed their studs rather than having a deep roster.

I was pushing this strategy for a while, and I pretty consistently adhere to it somewhat with a roster in the 20-22 range.

That said, the chance of having a single player get hurt taking down your team is quite high.

In fact it’s exactly how I got knocked out last year. And the year before.

If you can find a combination of 18 players who all stay healthy & perform to projections, you’re gonna go far. But even then you’d have to be crazy lucky, especially during BYEs. And especially during the later BYEs where the cut line is higher and every point counts.

I also typically utilize the same strategy. And like you said, if even 10% of your budget ends up as dead money in the form of a single player, your roster is DOA regardless of the roster size. Even if you hit on some of the value players, that >$25 miss will be too much to overcome. And that's where more granular analysis would be useful on the survival rates. I'm still convinced smaller roster size is by far the right strategy if the goal is to win the contest, rather than simply advance to the finals. I would be more interested to see the rosters sizes of teams that won over the years instead of the survival rates.

This season there are 33 players that are $25 or higher. There is close to a zero percent chance they all stay healthy and perform to expectations. But that's what makes this contest fun. You could create a large roster that includes only players under $25 from the rest of the field. It would likely survive longer, but it probably wouldn't have enough firepower to win it all.

I don't have stats on the roster size of teams who won the contest over the years. But a small roster team has to be super lucky and escape the injury bug if it hopes to not be eliminated. In 2011, I won 4th overall in this contest with an 18-player roster. That was the first year I played, and YES, I was SUPER LUCKY. I have not been so lucky ever since. I had 6 players on bye in week 11 and somehow survived.

In case you are interested, this was my roster that year:

QB Aaron Rogers /8 $31 Threw for 4,643 Yards and 45 TDs, 6 int
QB Matt Stafford /9 $18 Threw for 5,038 yards and 41 TDs, 16 int

RB Maurice Jones-Drew / 9 $30 Put up 285 fantasy points
RB Felix Jones /5 $23 Put up 120 fantasy points
RB James Starks /8 $16 Put up 99 fantasy points
RB Willis McGahee /6 $11 <<< Value Player! Had 249 /1,199 / 4 rushing, and... 12 / 51 /1 receiving 160 fantasy ponts for $11
RB Isaac Redman /11 $2 <<< SUPER Value Player! Had 110 /479 / 3 rushing, and ... 18 receptions, 78 yards 130 fantasy points for $2

WR Calvin Johnson /9 $31 <<< Worth the money! Had 96 / 1681 / 16 TDs 360 fantasy points for $31
WR Roddy WHite /8 $30 <<< Worth the money! Had 100 / 1296 / 8 TD 277 fantasy poitns for $30
WR Lance Moore /11 $10 <<< Value Player! Had 52 receptions, 627 yards, 8 TDs , 162 fantasy points for $10
WR Antonio Brown /11 $3 <<< Super Value Player! Had 69 receptions, 1,108 yards, 2 TDs... and 7 carries, 41 yards 195 fantasy points for $3
WR Denarius Moore /8 $3 <<< Super Value Player! Posted 33 / 618 / 5 and rushed 5/ 61 / 1 136 fantasy points for $3

TE Owen Daniels /11 $12 <<< Value Player! Had 54 receptions, 677 yards, 3 TDs (166 fantasy points)
TE Aaron Hernandez /7 $10 <<< Value Player! Had 79 receptions, 910 yards and 7 TDs 251 fantasy points for $10

PK Matt Bryant /8 $4
PK Adam Vinatieri /11 $4

DEF New England Patriots /7 $7
DEF New Orleans Saints /11 $5

Total $250

 

[joey]

I never wanna jinx it, but as if now I have
2 QB
5 RB
7 WR
2 TE
2 K
3 D/ST

I am not sure if this lineup will stand. I might scrap the whole thing. That said, I kinda like it.

For now.

I’m currently at
2 QB
4 RB
6 WR
2 TE
2 K (“saving” $2 by picking one $4 Kand one $3 K, instead of three $3 Ks)
2 D (same exact approach as K)

I have studs at every position (Mahomes, Chubb, Lamb, Kelce)

I’m digging this studs line up and I’ll just cross my fingers that I get lucky with injuries.

Heck, last year I had “insurance” with all of these extra value players and I still got hit with injuries and unlucky kicker cuts.

Less players, less odds of injury, right?!?!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m digging this studs line up and I’ll just cross my fingers that I get lucky with injuries.

And good luck with that I say.

 

[joey]

Full disclosure. Here’s my current

DELETED. Already changed it

 

[fightingillini]

It;s the most wonderful time.........of the year!

my first iteration (and certainly won't be my last)

QB - Justin Herbert - LAC/5 - $21
QB - Derek Carr - NO/11 - $11
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - James Conner - ARI/14 - $20
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - NE/11 - $7
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/10 - $35
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/14 - $20
WR - Elijah Moore - CLE/5 - $11
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
WR - Marvin Jones Jr. - DET/9 - $4
WR - Parris Campbell - NYG/13 - $4
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/10 - $14
TE - Irv Smith Jr. - CIN/7 - $9
PK - Jake Elliott - PHI/10 - $5
PK - Anders Carlson - GB/6 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/13 - $5
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3

 

[joey]

Ok. Posting it for realz this time. it’s like I’m drafting in a 4 team redraft league

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $19
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/10 - $8
WR - Isaiah Hodgins - NYG/13 - $6
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/11 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

thoughts welcome.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Ok. Posting it for realz this time. it’s like I’m drafting in a 4 team redraft league

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $19
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/10 - $8
WR - Isaiah Hodgins - NYG/13 - $6
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/11 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

thoughts welcome.

I like the players. But $68 in week 10 byes including your QB1 and TE1 is a challenge if the team makes it that far. JLove at the Steelers in week 10 too.

 

[TwinTurbo]

It;s the most wonderful time.........of the year!

my first iteration (and certainly won't be my last)

QB - Justin Herbert - LAC/5 - $21
QB - Derek Carr - NO/11 - $11
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - James Conner - ARI/14 - $20
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - NE/11 - $7
WR - Cooper Kupp - LAR/10 - $35
WR - Terry McLaurin - WAS/14 - $20
WR - Elijah Moore - CLE/5 - $11
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
WR - Marvin Jones Jr. - DET/9 - $4
WR - Parris Campbell - NYG/13 - $4
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/10 - $14
TE - Irv Smith Jr. - CIN/7 - $9
PK - Jake Elliott - PHI/10 - $5
PK - Anders Carlson - GB/6 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Baltimore Ravens - BAL/13 - $5
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3

I have none of these players on my current roster which means you should keep it exactly as is.

 

[joey]

W

Ok. Posting it for realz this time. it’s like I’m drafting in a 4 team redraft league

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $19
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/10 - $8
WR - Isaiah Hodgins - NYG/13 - $6
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/11 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

thoughts welcome.

I like the players. But $68 in week 10 byes including your QB1 and TE1 is a challenge if the team makes it that far. JLove at the Steelers in week 10 too.

Byes have to line up on some players at some point, eh?
Love and Ferguson will save me!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

W

Ok. Posting it for realz this time. it’s like I’m drafting in a 4 team redraft league

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Godwin - TB/5 - $19
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/10 - $8
WR - Isaiah Hodgins - NYG/13 - $6
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/11 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

thoughts welcome.

I like the players. But $68 in week 10 byes including your QB1 and TE1 is a challenge if the team makes it that far. JLove at the Steelers in week 10 too.

Byes have to line up on some players at some point, eh?
Love and Ferguson will save me!

We all know this lineup is 37 iterations from locked in. cmon.

 

[Birdie048]

OK... breaking my trend from past years .... Reviewed it in detail and focused and plan on ZERO ITERATIONS / CHANGES...

3 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 5 TE format due to TE-P 1.5

QB - Derek Carr - NO/11 - $11
QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR/10 - $10
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Travis Etienne Jr. - JAX/9 - $23
RB - Miles Sanders - CAR/7 - $22
RB - James Conner - ARI/14 - $20
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
WR - Chris Olave - NO/11 - $27
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - Jordan Addison - MIN/13 - $15
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
TE - David Njoku - CLE/5 - $14
TE - Irv Smith Jr. - CIN/7 - $9
TE - Cade Otton - TB/5 - $6
TE - Logan Thomas - WAS/14 - $6
TE - Durham Smythe - MIA/10 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Cade York - CLE/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/7 - $6
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/6 - $5

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

and plan on ZERO ITERATIONS / CHANGES...

The lies, THE LIES!

 

[opensourcebeer]

Assuming no last minute injuries, I think I'm done for now.

QB - Justin Herbert - LAC/5 - $21
QB - Derek Carr - NO/11 - $11
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
RB - Kyren Williams - LAR/10 - $4
WR - Justin Jefferson - MIN/13 - $37
WR - Brandon Aiyuk - SF/9 - $18
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/6 - $9
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Justin Tucker - BAL/13 - $8
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - New England Patriots - NE/11 - $7
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/9 - $4

Total value: 250

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Assuming no last minute injuries, I think I'm done for now.

...and other lies we tell ourselves.

 

[ClownDogs]

Version 39840.2

QB - Justin Fields - CHI/13 - $20
QB - Derek Carr - NO/11 - $11
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/7 - $29
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs - DET/9 - $25
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
RB - Kyren Williams - LAR/10 - $4
WR - Jerry Jeudy - DEN/9 - $21
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - George Pickens - PIT/6 - $15
WR - Gabe Davis - BUF/13 - $12
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/10 - $8
TE - Pat Freiermuth - PIT/6 - $17
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Cameron Dicker - LAC/5 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Version 39840.2

@TheWinz scoffs at this pantry number

 

[Bill Dauterive]

Damar Hamlin kicked me in the back of the knee last year, not that I hold a grudge or anything. Glad to see him back out there. Here's my awful lineup thus far.

QB - Anthony Richardson - IND/11 - $15
QB - Bryce Young - CAR/7 - $9
RB - David Montgomery - DET/9 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
RB - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - KC/10 - $8
RB - Jerome Ford - CLE/5 - $8
RB - Chase Brown - CIN/7 - $6
WR - Justin Jefferson - MIN/13 - $37
WR - Skyy Moore - KC/10 - $12
WR - Elijah Moore - CLE/5 - $11
WR - Zay Flowers - BAL/13 - $10
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/6 - $9
WR - Rashee Rice - KC/10 - $8
WR - Jonathan Mingo - CAR/7 - $8
WR - Josh Downs - IND/11 - $6
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/10 - $18
TE - Hayden Hurst - CAR/7 - $8
TE - Trey McBride - ARI/14 - $8
PK - Evan McPherson - CIN/7 - $6
PK - Cameron Dicker - LAC/5 - $4
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/6 - $4
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3

 

[TwinTurbo]

I'm on iteration #300 or so.

23 player roster seems like the sweet spot. This might also be the first time that I ever go with 3 QBs, all $10 or less.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I'm seeing a lot of Turd Ferguson in these lineups above. I had him in my first iteration. On the fence still.

 

[TwinTurbo]

OK... breaking my trend from past years .... Reviewed it in detail and focused and plan on ZERO ITERATIONS / CHANGES...

3 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 5 TE format due to TE-P 1.5

QB - Derek Carr - NO/11 - $11
QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR/10 - $10
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Travis Etienne Jr. - JAX/9 - $23
RB - Miles Sanders - CAR/7 - $22
RB - James Conner - ARI/14 - $20
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
WR - Chris Olave - NO/11 - $27
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - Jordan Addison - MIN/13 - $15
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
TE - David Njoku - CLE/5 - $14
TE - Irv Smith Jr. - CIN/7 - $9
TE - Cade Otton - TB/5 - $6
TE - Logan Thomas - WAS/14 - $6
TE - Durham Smythe - MIA/10 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Cade York - CLE/5 - $4
TD - New York Jets - NYJ/7 - $6
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/6 - $5

I like going with the 3QB approach this season as well, although one of those QBs will probably not be Carr. He's got a fresh slate, but still burned from last season. And if you aren't good enough for the Raiders...

 

[Puppies]

Statistical Trivia - Volume 2023, number 1

Concerning the question of team size versus survival rate discussed here recently...

I looked back at the stats from last year, and I wanted to mention the trend I observed for anyone who may still be wondering about it. So here's the scoop....
(Note when readiing below, the requirement to roster between 18 and 30 players means there 13 different team sizes)

In weeks 1 and 2.... 18-player teams enjoyed the highest overall survival rate. But in week 3, 18-player teams slid all the way down to 11th place out of 13 in terms of survival rate. Then in week 4, 18-player teams slid to last place, and remained last for the next 9 consecutive weeks, after which, (for reasons I don't remember) I stopped recording the stats.

In week 3 when the 18 player rosters started their free-fall down to the worst survival rate... roster size 24 enjoyed the highest survival rate, and from that point through week 12, the highest survival rate was always with teams having between 23 and 30 players. Note that the sweet spot was roster sizes 27 and 28, which between them enjoyed the highest survival rate in 6 of the next 8 weeks. The two exceptions were 23-player teams in week 6, and 30-player teams in week 11.

So from week 4 until the end of the season last year, no team having fewer than 23 players was even in the top 5 out of 13 places, except for one single exception in week 6, when team size 20 placed 5th.

It was a head-scratcher at first, wondering why 18 player teams would have the best survival rate the first 2 weeks, then drop like rock. But then it hit me - Everyone was healthy at the start of the season, then you get a few injuries and it's all over for small roster teams.

Now these actual stats will not necessarily be repeated this year, but I do believe it's reasonable to draw the general conclusion that larger roster teams are generally more likely to survive this contest longer than smaller roster teams.

To put it another way, if you plan to roster only 18 players, you better have a crystal ball.

That said, it seems to me that salary cap values have suffered a decent amount of inflation since last year, and I'm finding that in terms of projected points per cap dollar, players are quite a bit more expensive. I've had 23 players on my roster the last 2 seasons, but am finding it difficult to roster more than 21 this year, using the same general strategy I've always used.

To re-state this in terms of projected points per cap dollar, my (current) preliminary roster iteration, which will likely change at least a couple dozen more times, works out to 15.54 projected points per cap dollar, compared to last year's roster which was 17.76 points per cap dollar. [EDIT: I already changed my roster twice in the 1:45 since I posted this] ... Are any of you guys getting that same sense?

It will be interesting once the contest starts, to compare the roster sizes of this year's field of entries with those of last year.

 

[TwinTurbo]

To re-state this in terms of projected points per cap dollar, my (current) preliminary roster iteration, which will likely change at least a couple dozen more times, works out to 15.54 projected points per cap dollar, compared to last year's roster which was 17.76 points per cap dollar. Are any of you guys getting that same sense?

It will be interesting once the contest starts, to compare the roster sizes of this year's field of entries with those of last year.

Yes I'm seeing the same. It's another reason why I think they did a great job on pricing. There are some clear tradeoffs if you try to push past 21 players. You can have a 24 player roster but that means checking boxes for 3 players from the same team that's likely to finish last in the division.

 

[opensourcebeer]

Statistical Trivia - Volume 2023, number 1

Concerning the question of team size versus survival rate discussed here recently...

I looked back at the stats from last year, and I wanted to mention the trend I observed for anyone who may still be wondering about it. So here's the scoop....
(Note when readiing below, the requirement to roster between 18 and 30 players means there 13 different team sizes)

In weeks 1 and 2.... 18-player teams enjoyed the highest overall survival rate. But in week 3, 18-player teams slid all the way down to 11th place out of 13 in terms of survival rate. Then in week 4, 18-player teams slid to last place, and remained last for the next 9 consecutive weeks, after which, (for reasons I don't remember) I stopped recording the stats.

In week 3 when the 18 player rosters started their free-fall down to the worst survival rate... roster size 24 enjoyed the highest survival rate, and from that point through week 12, the highest survival rate was always with teams having between 23 and 30 players. Note that the sweet spot was roster sizes 27 and 28, which between them enjoyed the highest survival rate in 6 of the next 8 weeks. The two exceptions were 23-player teams in week 6, and 30-player teams in week 11.

So from week 4 until the end of the season last year, no team having fewer than 23 players was even in the top 5 out of 13 places, except for one single exception in week 6, when team size 20 placed 5th.

Now these actual stats will not necessarily be repeated this year, but I do believe it's reasonable to draw the general conclusion that larger roster teams are generally more likely to survive this contest longer than smaller roster teams.

To put it another way, if you plan to roster only 18 players, you better have a crystal ball.

That said, it seems to me that salary cap values have suffered a decent amount of inflation since last year, and I'm finding that in terms of projected points per cap dollar, players are quite a bit more expensive. I've had 23 players on my roster the last 2 seasons, but am finding it difficult to roster more than 21 this year, using the same general strategy I've always used.

To re-state this in terms of projected points per cap dollar, my (current) preliminary roster iteration, which will likely change at least a couple dozen more times, works out to 15.54 projected points per cap dollar, compared to last year's roster which was 17.76 points per cap dollar. Are any of you guys getting that same sense?

It will be interesting once the contest starts, to compare the roster sizes of this year's field of entries with those of last year.

Just when I think I'm done, you've pulled me back in.

Great post and analysis.

 

[Grid71]

I never wanna jinx it, but as if now I have
2 QB
5 RB
7 WR
2 TE
2 K
3 D/ST

I am not sure if this lineup will stand. I might scrap the whole thing. That said, I kinda like it.

For now.

Looks like a winner. I like it too but might want to consider flipping your 2nd QB for the other one at the same price.

 

[Grid71]

QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/13 - $22
QB - Kenny Pickett - PIT/6 - $10
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs - DET/9 - $25
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
WR - Jaylen Waddle - MIA/10 - $28
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/6 - $18
WR - Greg Dortch - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/13 - $28
TE - Kyle Pitts - ATL/11 - $18
TE - Dalton Kincaid - BUF/13 - $10
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Anders Carlson - GB/6 - $3
PK - Caleb Shudak - TEN/7 - $3
TD - Chicago Bears - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3

Probably going with a TE heavy team this season. Felt very good last year with Kelce and Andrews starting every week till Andrews went down.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I never wanna jinx it, but as if now I have
2 QB
5 RB
7 WR
2 TE
2 K
3 D/ST

I am not sure if this lineup will stand. I might scrap the whole thing. That said, I kinda like it.

For now.

Looks like a winner. I like it too but might want to consider flipping your 2nd QB for the other one at the same price.

I’m feeling good about it. I’ve since gone to 8 WR.

 

[scottybo]

QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/13 - $22
QB - Tua Tagovailoa - MIA/10 - $14
RB - Aaron Jones - GB/6 - $26
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Raheem Mostert - MIA/10 - $10
RB - Ty Chandler - MIN/13 - $3
WR - Jaylen Waddle - MIA/10 - $28
WR - DeAndre Hopkins - TEN/7 - $19
WR - Michael Thomas - NO/11 - $12
WR - Isaiah Hodgins - NYG/13 - $6
WR - Mack Hollins - ATL/11 - $4
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/13 - $28
TE - Chigoziem Okonkwo - TEN/7 - $14
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/14 - $7
PK - Jason Sanders - MIA/10 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
TD - Green Bay Packers - GB/6 - $5
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/9 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

So far...my favorite one. Check back in 5 minutes for my new favorite.

 

[TheWinz]

QB - Patrick Mahomes - KC/10 - $25
QB - Desmond Ridder - ATL/11 - $7
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Travis Etienne Jr. - JAX/9 - $23
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Kareem Hunt - FA/1--18 - $6
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/5 - $19
WR - DJ Moore - CHI/13 - $18
WR - JuJu Smith-Schuster - NE/11 - $13
WR - Skyy Moore - KC/10 - $12
WR - John Metchie III - HOU/7 - $6
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
PK - Ka'imi Fairbairn - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3

I dunno??

 

[bamabuddha]

18 …strong as long as no injuries

 

[Grid71]

I never wanna jinx it, but as if now I have
2 QB
5 RB
7 WR
2 TE
2 K
3 D/ST

I am not sure if this lineup will stand. I might scrap the whole thing. That said, I kinda like it.

For now.

I’m currently at
2 QB
4 RB
6 WR
2 TE
2 K (“saving” $2 by picking one $4 Kand one $3 K, instead of three $3 Ks)
2 D (same exact approach as K)

I have studs at every position (Mahomes, Chubb, Lamb, Kelce)

I’m digging this studs line up and I’ll just cross my fingers that I get lucky with injuries.

Heck, last year I had “insurance” with all of these extra value players and I still got hit with injuries and unlucky kicker cuts.

Less players, less odds of injury, right?!?!

Less players, less odds of injury. New mantra for 2023 subscriber contest.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Less players, less odds of injury. New mantra for 2023 subscriber contest.

My newest foster is 20. I might roll with it. No guts no glory?

 

[Puppies]

Less players, less odds of injury. New mantra for 2023 subscriber contest.

My newest foster is 20. I might roll with it. No guts no glory?

My current iteration has 21, but as always, it will likely change many times between now and opening day. So it won't necessarily be 21 when we go live.

For everyone else.... What's the roster size of your current roster iteration? Let's take a poll. It might be pretty revealing.

 

[apalmer]

I've been right around 22 on all of my iterations. Had it up to 23 on my last one (was playing with the idea of taking 2 cheap KC WRs and hoping one or the other hit), but that lasted about 15 minutes before it went back down.