2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[QuizGuy66]

Unofficial scoring via Quizzomatic:

1902 - Wilson (Garrett)	1902​	JETS	14.40​
1310 - Rodgers	1310​	JETS	0.00​
1296 - Zuerlein	1296​	JETS	11.30​
1248 - NYJ	1248​	JETS	19.00​
667 - Cook (Dalvin)	667​	JETS	7.40​
598 - Conklin	598​	JETS	1.70​
472 - Cobb	472​	JETS	0.00​
325 - Lazard	325​	JETS	6.60​
202 - Hardman	202​	JETS	0.00​
114 - Hall	114​	JETS	15.20​
34 - Abanikanda	34​	JETS	0.00​
12 - Carter	12​	JETS	2.80​

2152 - Cook (James)	2152​	BUF	8.30​
2115 - Kincaid	2115​	BUF	8.60​
899 - Davis (Gabe)	899​	BUF	5.20​
400 - Allen	400​	BUF	18.40​
318 - Diggs	318​	BUF	26.20​
254 - Bass	254​	BUF	13.40​
238 - Knox	238​	BUF	7.00​
218 - BUF	218​	BUF	5.00​
131 - Shakir	131​	BUF	0.00​
105 - Harris (Damien)	105​	BUF	2.90​
101 - Hines	101​	BUF	0.00​

-QG

 

[joey]

At 136. Is that good enough? (Don’t know if the cut line on the official contest page still will move after MNF)

 

[rustycolts]

At 136. Is that good enough? (Don’t know if the cut line on the official contest page still will move after MNF)

Your good.

 

[QuizGuy66]

So officially done at 140.5
-QG

 

[joey]

So officially done at 140.5
-QG

“Done”? Sounds like you’re good

 

[Dacomish]

I never moved off of 122, now sweating the Turk....hopefully it didn't move over 7 points....uggh

 

[scottybo]

Cut line -

122.25

Barely made it

 

[QuizGuy66]

So officially done at 140.5
-QG

“Done”? Sounds like you’re good

I meant done for the week to be honest (and yeah I know everybody was done for the week - dumb way to put it). I will put something like "in the clubhouse" next time

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Only 68 out of 98 Burrow/Chase owners survived The Turk

-QG

 

[Puppies]

This has turned out to be a really bizarre week 1 .

I wanted to roster Waller for my top TE, but didn't have the $$. Instead I took Engram (plus Hurst, Kincaid, and Musgrave)

Ironic that ALL 4 of my TEs outscored Waller this week, and I got both Flex scores from TE.

 

[Dacomish]

Cut line -

122.25

Barely made it

Me too....PHEW!

TOTAL	122.65
CUT LINE	122.25

 

[-OZ-]

Just curious, what was everyone’s biggest last minute decisions? (I’ll be tracking my own to see “what if?”)

For me - deciding on Garrett Wilson and Jav Williams plus a 3rd defense (falcons) over Ridley and Chubb. That’s probably a decision I’ll regret.

I’m outta here!

 

[Dacomish]

A few ties this week pushed the scores slightly all the way through the week 9 cuts, NEW is what is expected UNOFFICIALLY after each week (barring future ties):

Start 9966
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 8970 NEW 8972
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 8075 NEW 8075
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 7266 NEW 7268
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 5813 NEW 5815
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 4651 NEW 4652
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 3721 NEW 3722
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 2977 NEW 2978
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2084 NEW 2085
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1459 NEW 1460
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1022
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 716
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 502
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 302
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Already know a specific “cheap” player who is a lock to make my rooster. I think I have an obsession problem. Step 1 is admitting it

Did he in fact make your rooster @Grid71 ?
-QG

Allen Robinson yes. He and Shaheed were my no brainer locks.

A Rob built huge chemistry with KP. Been classy vet. Kenny even commented about how ARob always makes the right decisions, always in the right position. Earned his trust and encouraged the young QB. Need that trust in the red zone. I believe ARob will lead all Steelers WR in touchdowns and far exceed his ADP. If Diontae or Pickens miss time, he will have a high floor with TD upside.

 

[BlackCrowes]

Link to set week 2 lineups?

 

[PIK95]

Not one of my Monday guys cracked my scoring. Josh Allen, James Cook, Garrett Wilson, and Legatron. I advanced, but so strange.

 

[ClownDogs]

peace out.

Top 250 last year to out week 1.

Good luck to all!

 

[bro1ncos]

Survived week 1, but Mac and Richardson are my QBs with dual attached Achilles. So week 11 is going to be rough with no QB.

 

[BroncosFan07]

Anybody know how many teams had Rodgers and only 1 other QB?

 

[bryhamm]

Anybody know how many teams had Rodgers and only 1 other QB?

I wasn't that bad, but close. Rodgers +2 others

 

[fightingillini]

I am at 140.5 and done. I should make it easily, but you never know.

You never know what? Final score might be 200 to 200?

I doubt the cut line will go above 120 (probably a little less) .... unless multiple players go off the rails with high fantasy points tonight. If we were betting a cut line of 120, I would probably take the "Under".

But you never know.

How many Burrow/Chase rosters will make it thru week 1?

This one is sitting on 195 but you never know.

Yeah, I get it. Line didn't move much.

 

[Golden Gopher]

Too Many Cooks in the Kitchen

 

[Gottabesweet]

124.0 barely made it as well. Not a promising start.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Anybody know how many teams had Rodgers and only 1 other QB?

Looks like 12 had only Rodgers. Just realized that is not your question.

-QG

 

[MikesVikes]

Only 68 out of 98 Burrow/Chase owners survived The Turk

-QG

Not a chase guy but I’m done after week one. Burrow and Josh Allen both disappointed.

 

[rzrback77]

124.0 barely made it as well. Not a promising start.

but, on the positive side you survived and that is the single most important thing each week.

 

[Puppies]

Lots of regulars here had close calls, and unfortunately a few have already heard a knock on their door from the Turk. It's just another reminder how tough this contest really is. There are lots of different strategies, but one untimely injury or one roster misjudgement can blow a hole in the middle of your plan.

The season at this point holds lots of unknowns. I didn't have Aaron Rodgers, but seeing his injury last night made me feel sick for him. Such a shame. I was looking forward to seeing how well he would do with his new team. I feel for any of you guys who rostered him, to lose a QB so early in the contest. It sucks.

Probably none of us expected to see Joe Burrow or Josh Allen play the way they did this week, and to a lesser extent Kenny Pickett. I personally can hardly wait to see how those 3 players in particular, do in week 2. Hopefully week 1 was an outlier, especially if you rostered one of those guys.

It's a small statistical sample, but the worst survival rate in week 1 was with teams that rostered only 18 players. The best survival rate in week 1 was enjoyed by teams wtih 25 players. It will be interesting to see if any trends develop.

Good luck to everyone, in week 2

 

[TheWinz]

We started the contest with 39 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. The great news is we still have 38; the bad news is we lost @Drunken Cowboy

Moving on to week 2 are:
Page 10 - @TwinTurbo @QuizGuy66 @JaBoo @Angry Beavers @Puppies @cstruk @ZWK @IHEARTFF @Kruegs @scottybo @bigfoamfinger @Balco @TrishaRita
Page 9 - @apalmer @Galileo @dzambo @steelerfan1 @msudaisy26 @firstseason1988 @Parmcat @Shaunz33 @wollac @BassNBrew @Steeler @Instinctive @SeniorVBDStudent @Monty Burns @bamabuddha @Hatch
Page 8 - @joey @BroncosFan07 @(HULK) @a_troll00 @themeanmachine @Deamon
Page 7 - @Dacomish @rustycolts @HairySasquatch

Of note
- I assumed the oldest active submission was sure to tinker, but didn't. HairySasquatch went with a full team of rookies, and K Dustin Hopkins
- BassNBrew was this week's top contest dog, with a score of 195.1 (176th place)
- Dacomish was this week's lowest advancing team, with a score of 122.65 (8931st place)

Good luck in week 2!

 

[chocula]

Done at 108. Hope the cut line barely moves

Looks like you miscalculated....

TOTAL	116.45
CUT LINE	114.65

Weird. I was going based on the score posted here on the site. Of course it doesn’t matter because the The Turk had other plans for me.

What really irritates me is that Jordan Love was one of the first players I knew I wanted on team this year. I went back and forth multiple times and started looking at teams without him. I should have never taken him off the team. Never went out in the first week before.

 

[joey]

Putting in my waiver pickups now for week 2…

 

[Army Eye]

Survived, though almost nobody on my team was impressive. But it was a super weird Week 1, right? I'm going with that, and not burying my dudes yet!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

First year I’ve ever been bounced in week 1.

That’s brutal.

LJax sunk me. Up until my last iteration I had TLaw & Puka in there. I wish I’d not tinkered

TOTAL	111.85
CUT LINE	122.25

 

[QuizGuy66]

:( sorry HSG
-QG

 

[TwinTurbo]

First year I’ve ever been bounced in week 1.

That’s brutal.

LJax sunk me. Up until my last iteration I had TLaw & Puka in there. I wish I’d not tinkered

TOTAL	111.85
CUT LINE	122.25

I tinkered at the last iteration and pivoted to Bijan and Tyreek. The earlier build would not have made it. Sorry to hear.

 

[BassNBrew]

First year I’ve ever been bounced in week 1.

That’s brutal.

LJax sunk me. Up until my last iteration I had TLaw & Puka in there. I wish I’d not tinkered

TOTAL	111.85
CUT LINE	122.25

Might I suggest better karma next year?

Maybe shipping some yummy hot sauce to someone like me might do the trick.

 

[BassNBrew]

Worried about 2 more weeks of Kamara donuts with veteran FBGs going down this early.

 

[BassNBrew]

I updated my lineup to this one, after many attempts. More today than all combined probably. I went back to two stud QBs as originally planned. So I'm out on this board stipend. Chandler is the only player on the roster that isn't a legit "starter" without injuries. Three tight ends (which I like) help fill in the gaps with the RBs and WRs. Not relying on a super stud like Kelce with this lineup. On paper, my average weekly score is less but with no dips for bye-week.

QB - Josh Allen - BUF/13 - $25
QB - Joe Burrow - CIN/7 - $21
RB - Bijan Robinson - ATL/11 - $33
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/7 - $29
RB - Rachaad White - TB/5 - $19
RB - Ty Chandler - MIN/13 - $3
WR - DeVonta Smith - PHI/10 - $26
WR - George Pickens - PIT/6 - $15
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Courtland Sutton - DEN/9 - $12
TE - Evan Engram - JAX/9 - $15
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/10 - $14
TE - Tyler Conklin - NYJ/7 - $7
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Anders Carlson - GB/6 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3

Nicely done.

Sorry dude...you got the Bass kiss of death. Who would have thought Burrow and Allen would be putrid at the same time.

As usual, I am freaking out and changed my roster like 10 times in the past few hours

Stastical Trivia - Volume 2023, Number 2

Things to consider when balancing your roster between positions....

We all know that injuries are part of the game, and they do happen. So how do you structure your lineup so that you are at least somewhat insulated from a situation that invariably will happen?

I was curious about incidence of injuries, so I went back 5 years through my contest entries and calculated some statistics. Have you ever wondered if you are more likely to lose one position to injury more than others? Below is what I found. It is a calculation of the number of man-games lost to injury by players on my rosters for the last 5 years. These numbers are just for how many games were missed due to injury. This does not count situations where a player got cut and was without a job (like Rodrigo Blankenship last year).

QB = 1.96%
RB = 14.05%
WR = 8.45%
TE = 9.13%
PK = 4.05%

This is the percentage of games missed due to injury. Now granted, this is only the players that were on my rosters the last 5 years, but I suspect it's probably a fairly accurate estimate of what you can expect in a typical season. I have long believed for example that I was more likely to lose a running back than a wide receiver due to injury, due to the amount of normal wear and tear faced by running backs, vs WR or TE. These numbers appear to confirm that suspicion. Side note: The QB percentage may be small because I rarely roster a running QB like Lamar or Jalen.

Take it for what it's worth. But to me, it resulted in adding one extra RB even though I hated to spend the cap dollars there. Your mileage may vary.

Good luck everyone this year, and thanks to @Joe Bryant and @Contest Turk for making all this fun possible for all of us!

... and @TheWinz ... Now maybe you go back and change your roster a few more times....

I come up with the exact opposite conclusion. I want my cap dollars concentrated on positions where injuries are less likely. If you take CMAC and he's lost for the year, unless you have a horseshoe hidden somewhere we can't mention, you're not going to win. When you considered that RB $s also bring you fewer projected points, the optimum team will spend as little as possible once the two required RB scores are posted.

We both agree that you want to spend as little “extra money” as possible on RB, because those are the most expensive projected points in the contest. But if by “drawing the exact opposite conclusion “ you mean ignoring the likelihood that you might lose a RB to injury, then you increase the likelihood of eating donuts for breakfast. Everything is a trade-off.

I think you just have to risk eating the donut. Some years you will but in the years you don't, you'll have a much better chance at being a contender for real coin.

Probably true, if your main focus is trying to be the overall winner of the contest. But I'm personally more focused on trying to survive 14 weeks than actually winning the contest. Crazy things can happen if you make it that far.

This probably won't happen, but if I manage to survive 14 weeks, I would have a sense of satisfaction knowing I made if further than 98% of the participants. I doubt that anyone entering this contest is in it for the money. If you're like me, you're in it for the challenge, the strategy, and the fun. The first part of my challenge is surviving 14 weeks. Admittedly, if you are really trying to go for broke and risk all in order to have a slim chance at the top prize, then your approach is the correct one. I finished 4th in 2011 using that basic strategy, with an 18-player lineup of mostly studs, and with 6 players on bye in week 11. (talk about risking all...)

For me, the contest boils down to this question: Would I rather survive 14 weeks and at least make the playoffs, or would I rather go for broke, realizing I'll probably have shorter season before I get eliminated, in return for a slim chance of taking a bigger prize? My answer is the former, partly because I hate the feeling of alienation I have every year starting the week after I get eliminated, and going to his forum and still trying to enjoy what's left of the contest even though I'm no longer in it. At that time I always still track my players anyway, to find out if I would have survived to the end had I not been eliminated in that one dreadful week. You may remember last year I posted the "fantom standings" every week, showing how all the eliminated teams would be doing had they not been eliminated. That was a fun way to stay involved. Last year I got bounced in week 11, but would have made it to the finals if not for that one bad week, so I was pretty close with my roster. The bad news is this year I feel less confident in my lineup than I did last year. I found some good value players last year, but I'm not confident that I have done that well with my selections this year. I guess we'll soon find out...

Not arguing with you as I pretty much feel the same way. My question to you is if you goal is to make it to the finals, are you better off optimizing points each week by allocating budget to where you get your best return OR by putting in contingency plans for an injury that's 15% likely to happen? Furthermore if you can reduce the injury risk to your flex scorers by close to 50% by selecting WRs over RBs, aren't you more likley to make the finals?

I agree that money should be spent where the greatest return is found, once your requirements are met at each position. I approached that by going for a top QB (rather than 2 mid range guys like I have in the past), thinking if I get more at QB, I need less elsewhere each week. Then I rostered 1 more RB than I might need because it has a dual purpose: It covers both the injury contingency and possibly provides a flex score at the same time. So it's sort of like killing two birds with one stone, or if you prefer, you can call it a BOGO (buy one - get one FREE). Faulty strategy? ... maybe; maybe not. And we're only talking one player.

And to futher answer your question about how to best spend the extra dollars, I moved some dollars from WR to TE, which offers the best potential return in fantasy points compared to RB or WR, with injury risk only slightly more than WR. But all this discussion aside, it is also what fit in terms of bye week management.

Obviously some exceptions like the team above, but the theme I'm seeing on eliminations this week is RB heavy teams. Many of the teams had 5 RBs that were expected to contribute and ended up with weak flex scores.

 

[Instinctive]

Man. Jordan Love keeping me alive pretty much. Need that stack with Watson, need Kamara, and Waller production wouldn't hurt either.

 

[JaBoo]

Is anyone aware if the "big ole' zip" file with the team constructions has been taken down? I was going to download it in an effort to do some analysis, and contribute on this forum. But I am getting the "page not found" error.

The page I looked at was .../download/football/2023_contest_entries.zip

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Is anyone aware if the "big ole' zip" file with the team constructions has been taken down? I was going to download it in an effort to do some analysis, and contribute on this forum. But I am getting the "page not found" error.

The page I looked at was .../download/football/2023_contest_entries.zip

I dont think there was ever a confirmation that it had been posted / I think the turk is still working on it.

 

[steelcityman]

Avoided Rodgers, Dobbins, Wilson, Kupp, D Johnson. But the shoe will drop sooner or later, always does.

 

[dkp993]

Slid by with 124. Got 0 from my TE’s (Kelce and Mayers) and Drake London. Got lucky. Need my TE and second tier RB’s (all I took) to starts providing something otherwise it will be an early exit.

 

[joey]

Avoided Rodgers, Dobbins, Wilson, Kupp, D Johnson. But the shoe will drop sooner or later, always does.

Avoided all the same as well. Phew.
Need Kelce back since I went Uber-stud TE in this contest for the first time.

My Lamar/Love QB combo is awesome (due to Love )

still liking my Chubb/Etienne/Pierce/Mostert RB combo

With Dionte J injury, Pickens value goes up more (theoretically). I assume he’s on tons of rosters in this contest.

 

[Smack Tripper]

What’s the puca ownership?

 

[Angry Beavers]

What’s the puca ownership?

Before or after waivers?

 

[QuizGuy66]

897 left with Puka.
11 somehow got eliminated
-QG

 

[Angry Beavers]

897 left with Puka.
11 somehow got eliminated
-QG

still a very strong survival rate

 

[joey]

897 left with Puka.
11 somehow got eliminated
-QG

still a very strong survival rate

You’d be out too if you only rostered all of the Puka’s in the league


actually, a funny/real scenario that happened in my long time work league (28 years and running) one year. One of the guys realized he didn’t have to reach at all to build an All Johnson Team (brad, keyshaun, jeeze, can’t remember the other Johnson’s from that era). Was hilarious and amazing that he pulled it off in the draft (got 4 or 5 of them Iirc).
oh, don’t worry…his team was HORRIBLE as expected. But he tried.

 

[Instinctive]

897 left with Puka.
11 somehow got eliminated
-QG

still a very strong survival rate

You’d be out too if you only rostered all of the Puka’s in the league


actually, a funny/real scenario that happened in my long time work league (28 years and running) one year. One of the guys realized he didn’t have to reach at all to build an All Johnson Team (brad, keyshaun, jeeze, can’t remember the other Johnson’s from that era). Was hilarious and amazing that he pulled it off in the draft (got 4 or 5 of them Iirc).
oh, don’t worry…his team was HORRIBLE as expected. But he tried.

I did something similar once but it was amazing. Cornerstones of Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson, CJ4.24...I feel like I had another couple.

Called it "Who's got the Biggest Johnson" lol. Won the league.

 

[QuizGuy66]

897 left with Puka.
11 somehow got eliminated
-QG

still a very strong survival rate

You’d be out too if you only rostered all of the Puka’s in the league


actually, a funny/real scenario that happened in my long time work league (28 years and running) one year. One of the guys realized he didn’t have to reach at all to build an All Johnson Team (brad, keyshaun, jeeze, can’t remember the other Johnson’s from that era). Was hilarious and amazing that he pulled it off in the draft (got 4 or 5 of them Iirc).
oh, don’t worry…his team was HORRIBLE as expected. But he tried.

Old school draft where guy didn't make it and so everyone sorts took turns filling out his team and in the last round realized he had like two Anderson so they said what the hell and gave him....Otis Anderson who had like 16 tds.

-QG