2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (3 Viewers)

[Puppies]

Undoubtedly my exit week. All players except ARSB crapped the bed. Going to need huge games from Walker, Waller and Ferguson for even a chance.

No Puppies tails are "wagging" here either. I'm just 2.60 clear of the cut line and most of my players have alread played. Mahommes might save my butt if he has a good game and if the cut line doesn't move too much.

I'm sitting at 103.50, with (Mahomes - 5.6), (Elliott - 8.1), (Aiyuk and P. Campbell - 5.5), (Josh Palmer and M. Wilson - 6.0) left to go.

Hopefully I'll be Ok if Mahomes puts up his usual game.

We didn't get the Steelers game here. Does anyone know if Pickett's knee injury looks serious

 

[Irelad]

Man, I'm so glad I went with Chubb over McCaffrey due to the injury concern....

 

[QuizGuy66]

Undoubtedly my exit week. All players except ARSB crapped the bed. Going to need huge games from Walker, Waller and Ferguson for even a chance.

No Puppies tails are "wagging" here either. I'm just 2.60 clear of the cut line and most of my players have alread played. Mahommes might save my butt if he has a good game and if the cut line doesn't move too much.

I'm sitting at 103.50, with (Mahomes - 5.6), (Elliott - 8.1), (Aiyuk and P. Campbell - 5.5), (Josh Palmer and M. Wilson - 6.0) left to go.

Hopefully I'll be Ok if Mahomes puts up his usual game.

We didn't get the Steelers game here. Does anyone know if Pickett's knee injury looks serious

Pickett was declared out fairly quickly and they did have him go to the locker room but wasn't carted off the field when it happened so dunno.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

McCaffrey has me somewhere into the 160s so on to week 5 for me. Good luck to those sweating the Turk!

-QG

 

[scottybo]

Jake Ferguson's 16.3 in the first half gives a glimmer.

 

[a_troll00]

Currently at 130.7 with Lamb and Ferguson still going. Tomorrow night will be Walker and Waller. It should be enough to move on.

 

[scottybo]

Think we had a late scoring fix. Cut line just jumped another point to 101.45.

 

[scottybo]

18.2 from Ferguson and 13 from Chargers bumps me 11.4 to probably keep me above cut line. Crossing fingers for Waller/Walker just to be decent (-6 and -7 flex scores).

 

[Mister CIA]

I think I'm all right. Sitting on 140.40, and McCaffery is about to bump Amari Cooper from the calculation.

 

[QuizGuy66]

after 4pm games via Quizzomatic:

194.55 + (Walker III - 14.30) + (Waller - 11.80)

Hope CMC keeps it up - especially when Burrow is on bye!
-QG

 

[(HULK)]

188.8 points with Waller and Seattle D left. I figured I was dead when I lost Chubb, but maybe I'll hang around a bit.

 

[scottybo]

6 over the cut line. Will probably drop below it tonight, but feel like I have a 75-80% chance that Walker and Waller get me across the finish line.

 

[jdkapow]

Thought I was in deep trouble this week with a bad Tyreek day and no obvious good days, but this was a team effort: no 25-point QB, no 20-point player anywhere else, but lots of 10-18 type scores. Sitting at 143.7 vs. the 119.9 cutline, with Walker and Waller left and my flexes sitting at 10.2 and 16.4. Not worried, but also glad cuts are only 20%.

 

[Angry Beavers]

171. Only a matter of time before Turk visits my Chubb less squad

 

[Puppies]

I was worried this afternoon with only 14 and 8 from RBs, and no WR scores above 10, until Dotson got a TD catch with 1 second on the clock to send the Washington game into OT, which pushed me just 2 points clear of the cut line.

But in the 4pm games, 20.8 from Aiyuk, and (surprise!) 26.6 from Michael Wilson, gets me to 141.40.

Remining players: Mahomes -5.6, and Parris Campbell-10.7

Looks like I'll survive the week afterall.

But I'm concerned about Pickett's injury even though I only plan to need him for a bye week fill-in. I hate to take a 0 on Mahomes bye week, if I last that long.

 

[a_troll00]

Thought I was in deep trouble this week with a bad Tyreek day and no obvious good days, but this was a team effort: no 25-point QB, no 20-point player anywhere else, but lots of 10-18 type scores. Sitting at 143.7 vs. the 119.9 cutline, with Walker and Waller left and my flexes sitting at 10.2 and 16.4. Not worried, but also glad cuts are only 20%.

I'm pretty much in the same boat. Sitting at 136.2 with Walker, Waller and Moore left to go. No big booms from any of my squad, but looking like enough contributors nonetheless to get me another week.

 

[Desert_Power]

6 over the cut line. Will probably drop below it tonight, but feel like I have a 75-80% chance that Walker and Waller get me across the finish line.

I'm 6 above too which means Waller, Moore, or Metcalf will have to throw up a big one. My highest scorer right now is Michael Wilson

 

[stubby]

Herbert and Michael Wilson are MVPs of this week. If Pickett is out next week I’ll have no QB

 

[QuizGuy66]

Herbert and Michael Wilson are MVPs of this week. If Pickett is out next week I’ll have no QB

yeah Khalil and Wilson joined my scoring column this week. Now have used 20 of the 25 members of my rooster.
The passengers remaining:
Chris Evans $3 (looking very doubtful - if he counts it's probably a bad sign for my team).
Tank Bigsby $9 (he has found paydirt a couple times at least - it might take two 1-yard touchdowns in a game for him to ever count the way he is being used).
Alec Pierce $7 (at least he is playing - he does get the odd target here or there and is getting the snap counts so maybe he can put up a game like Wilson some time soon)
Cairo Santos $3 (the tanking Bears are holding him back but hopefully he'll sneak onto the score sheet at some point)
Los Angeles Rams $3 (they have done zilch - will need a fluke it seems but at some point I suppose they'll count)

-QG

 

[Balco]

I wonder how many teams carry two qbs with Pickett being one of them and the other being on bye next week (like Herbert).

Have a feeling there will be a few hundred goose eggs at qb next week.

 

[stubby]

Herbert and Michael Wilson are MVPs of this week. If Pickett is out next week I’ll have no QB

yeah Khalil and Wilson joined my scoring column this week. Now have used 20 of the 25 members of my rooster.
The passengers remaining:
Chris Evans $3 (looking very doubtful - if he counts it's probably a bad sign for my team).
Tank Bigsby $9 (he has found paydirt a couple times at least - it might take two 1-yard touchdowns in a game for him to ever count the way he is being used).
Alec Pierce $7 (at least he is playing - he does get the odd target here or there and is getting the snap counts so maybe he can put up a game like Wilson some time soon)
Cairo Santos $3 (the tanking Bears are holding him back but hopefully he'll sneak onto the score sheet at some point)
Los Angeles Rams $3 (they have done zilch - will need a fluke it seems but at some point I suppose they'll count)

-QG

Ty Chandler is now the only dead weight I’m carrying on my rooster of 22, although I’m starting to lose faith that Warren is anything but a pipe dream.

 

[TheWinz]

Let's go back and revisit the 2021 K's. Since there were 2 K's for $2 each, all $$ values are in play this year, but there were no 3 for 1 deals. Before we get into it, we must remove a few K's:
- Wil Lutz ($5) - started the season on IR - chosen by less than 2%
- Robbie Gould ($5) - missed 3 games while on IR; luckily chosen by less than 3%
- Tucker McCann ($3) - waived before contest deadline - chosen by less than 2%
- Aldrick Rosas ($3) - waiver fodder fighting for Lutz's job - chosen by less than 2%
- Cody Parkey ($3) - same boat as Rosas, only kicked 1 week
- Kaimi Fairbairn ($3) - started the season on IR - chosen by less than 2%
- Rodrigo Blankenship ($4) - legitimately lost job after going on IR, and not due to suckage (but I think he does suck). When he went down with a bad hip, he was K8.
I would like to remove Tristan Vizcaino and Josh Lambo (both for $3) because it would boost my numbers, but they lost their jobs due to suckage, so I must keep them.

The $6 kickers, in order of commonality, were:
Justin Tucker - 7th most common - 167.6 pts (K2) - was outscored by 75 of 105 $4, $5, and $6 combos
Harrison Butker - 11th most common - 138.2 pts (tied K13) - was outscored by 94 of 105 $4, $5, and $6 combos (all 11 lower scoring combos had either Lambo or Vizcaino)
169 out of 210 combos scored higher than the single $6 kickers (80.5%).

The $5 kickers, in order of commonality, were:
Ryan Succop - 13th most common - 130.8 pts (K18) - was outscored by 25 of 25 $4 and $5 combos
Tyler Bass - 15th most common - 138.2 pts (tied K13) - was outscored by 24 of 25 $4 and $5 combos (the only combo was Bullock/Lambo, and Lambo was cut after 3 weeks)
Mason Crosby - 24th most common - 138.3 pts (K12) - was outscored by 24 of 25 $4 and $5 combos (the only combo was Bullock/Lambo, and Lambo was cut after 3 weeks)
73 out of 75 combos scored higher than the single $5 kickers (97.3%).

The $4 kickers, in order of commonality, were:
Younghoe Koo - 1st most common - 121.7 pts (K19) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
Greg Zuerlein - 3rd most common - 141.8 pts (K11) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
Jason Sanders - 8th most common - 112.5 pts (K20) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
Matt Gay - 10th most common - 163.2 pts (K4) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
Jason Myers - 12th most common - 101 pts (K24) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
Matt Prater - 14th most common - 148.5 pts (K8) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
Chris Boswell - 27th most common - 160.4 pts (K6) - was outscored by the only $4 combo
If you were going to spend $4 on K's, the right move would've been to roster Evan McPherson & Randy Bullock ($2 each). You would've scored 202.4 pts.

All in all, 249 out of 292 combos outscored the more expensive single kickers (85.3%). Just look at Justin Tucker above. He was everything you could ask for and finished K2, but was still outscored by 71.4% of the cheaper combos.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I spent more time iterating on QB2 and went with Baker in the final build. Burrow is now my QB2.

 

[a_troll00]

I wish I had the Cowboys' defense in this contest, though no recollection on how much they cost. However, the Cowboys' defense is becoming quite problematic.

In two games now, they have caused so much damage in the first half, that the offense takes the foot off the pedal in the second half.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Not asking for it - but the defense scenario is intriguing to. Curious because the really low scoring defenses tend to score really really low, but there still does seem to be some $3 type teams that hit.

Thanks for all the cool stuff
-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

I wish I had the Cowboys' defense in this contest, though no recollection on how much they cost. However, the Cowboys' defense is becoming quite problematic.

In two games now, they have caused so much damage in the first half, that the offense takes the foot off the pedal in the second half.

Cowboys were $7

Scored 25, 11, 2 and 20 so far.

My $9 combo of Chargers/Lions/Rams (which has really been a $6 combo as the Rams haven't done anything)
8, 5, 9, and 13

There were 10 $3 defenses available. So 90 $6 combo and 720 $9 combos so a lot more variety available.

All the prices:

DEF	7​	Eagles
DEF	7​	49ers
DEF	7​	Bills
DEF	7​	Cowboys
DEF	7​	Patriots
DEF	6​	Steelers
DEF	6​	Jets
DEF	6​	Saints
DEF	6​	Dolphins
DEF	5​	Ravens
DEF	5​	Bengals
DEF	5​	Chiefs
DEF	5​	Buccaneers
DEF	5​	Packers
DEF	5​	Browns
DEF	4​	Colts
DEF	4​	Giants
DEF	4​	Vikings
DEF	4​	Jaguars
DEF	4​	Commanders
DEF	4​	Seahawks
DEF	4​	Broncos
DEF	3​	Bears
DEF	3​	Falcons
DEF	3​	Lions
DEF	3​	Cardinals
DEF	3​	Chargers
DEF	3​	Raiders
DEF	3​	Titans
DEF	3​	Panthers
DEF	3​	Texans
DEF	3​	Rams

-QG

 

[BassNBrew]

after 4pm games via Quizzomatic:

194.55 + (Walker III - 14.30) + (Waller - 11.80)

Hope CMC keeps it up - especially when Burrow is on bye!
-QG

I think Burrow has been on a bye all year.

 

[TheWinz]

Not asking for it - but the defense scenario is intriguing to. Curious because the really low scoring defenses tend to score really really low, but there still does seem to be some $3 type teams that hit.

Thanks for all the cool stuff
-QG

I've already run the numbers for 3-for-1 and 4-for-1 since 2010, and 99.58% of the time it was better to roster multiple cheapies versus expensive ones. As a matter of fact, being the most expensive D is like being on the cover of Madden. The most expensive D's have averaged D17, with only 4 out of 18 finishing top 10. And believe it or not, in 2015, the Seahawks D cost $12, while 7 other teams were only $3. Another fun fact - during the 5 year span from 2017-2021 the Raiders finished D32, D32, D29, D32, and D32.

This year, there were 755 different duos vs the 9 D's that were $6 or $7. It's only week 4, so running the numbers would be pretty useless.

 

[joey]

Another fun fact - during the 5 year span from 2017-2021 the Raiders finished D32, D32, D29, D32, and D32.

“Fun” is in the eye of the beholder :(


I'm sitting at 161with only Hyatt to play. Looking like this former-Chubb owner gets another week stay of execution

 

[jdkapow]

I wonder how many teams carry two qbs with Pickett being one of them and the other being on bye next week (like Herbert).

Have a feeling there will be a few hundred goose eggs at qb next week.

The QBs in the contest on bye are Justin Herbert, Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Deshaun Watson and Kyle Trask.
Aaron Rodgers is out for the year, of course. Kyler Murray is still unavailable.
I'll assume Pickett is out next week.

There are 252 teams who do not have any QBs other than those listed above. Those teams will all get zeros at the QB position next week.
Of those, 49 rostered only one QB, 190 rostered two QBs, and 13 rostered 3 QBs.

 

[TheWinz]

I don't know how much the cut moved from the KC/NYJ game, but here were the numbers:

QB
665 - Mahomes - 19.25

RB
569 - Pacheco - 23.3
423 - Cook - 2.3
288 - McKinnon - 0.7
146 - Edwards-Helaire - 1.8
54 - Hall - 8.4
37 - Prince - 0.0
26 - Abanikanda - 0.0
8 - Carter - 3.1

WR
1295 - Wilson - 15.0
1007 - Moore - 1.9
447 - Toney - 4.2
409 - Valdes-Scantling - 1.6
355 - Ross - 0.0
336 - Cobb - 2.8
180 - Lazard - 15.1
156 - Rice - 6.2
138 - Hardman - 0.0
70 - James - 0.0
10 - Davis - 0.0

TE
458 - Conklin - 11.8
433 - Gray - 10.9
383 - Kelce - 15.0

K
918 - Zuerlein - 4.1
572 - Butker - 12.4

D
904 - NYJ - 7.0
238 - KC - 4.0

 

[a_troll00]

The cut went up higher than I thought it would. It's now at 127.1

Gonna make a prediction of around 134 for the final cut.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Cutoff 127.1 My Current Total 127.1

127.1 + (Waller - 11.6) + (Seahawks D - 9.0).

 

[Balco]

Cutoff 127.1 My Current Total 127.1

127.1 + (Waller - 11.6) + (Seahawks D - 9.0).

Going to be tight - here’s hoping Waller finally has that breakout game we know is coming at some point!

 

[nittanylion]

Total: 120.25

Cut Line 127.10

All 19 of my Players who played, scored. They just didn't score very much. Wish I'd found a way to my usual 24-man Roster, not 22.

Jason Myers chasing 15.70, so that's likely not happening.

Tyler Lockett and Jalin Hyatt chasing my 2 lowest RB/WR/TE scores (8.5, 8.7).

I guess there's a chance, but it's a slim one, at best. That's why they play the games!

 

[rustycolts]

Well I get to experience the "fun" part of the contest this week sweating the turk. I'm 3 points below the cutline with Lockett and Waller to go. They need 7 and 3.8 points before they start scoring. I think if I can get 15 out of them I might skate by. Let the fun begin.

11 points out of Waller and 15 out of Lockett is not to much to ask is it.

 

[scottybo]

Tonight's cut line movers:

Jones - 502
Barkley - 276 (doubtful)
Breida - 69
Hyatt - 716
Slayton - 242
Campbell - 409
Hodgins - 375
Robinson - 132
Waller - 2828
Gano - 573
Giants - 242

Smith - 472
Walker - 771
Charbonnet - 485
Metcalf - 241
Lockett - 519
Smith-Njigba - 509
Fant - 70
Dissly - 50
Myers - 159
Seahawks - 522

 

[Irelad]

I'm safe at 160, with Lockett (-11.7) and Waller (-11.6). My whole team showed up, gonna need this to be the norm if I'm going to survive without Chubb. $3 Michael Wilson was my top scorer, with Khalil Herbert as the 2nd highest. Lots of scores in the teens, solid all-around contributions.

 

[Puppies]

The "Turk" might be getting a knock on his own door this week, as his team is sitting at 115.85, with only Kenneth Walker - 8.5 left

 

[Galileo]

Another weak week, but I should be barely safe sitting at 141.55 with no one left to play

 

[Bill Dauterive]

Sitting at 152 with Fant - 7.4. I would think I'm safe, but feels like treading water.

 

[apalmer]

My highest score of the year at 178.55, led by the two guys I obviously thought would be my studs: Kyren Williams and Michael Wilson.

 

[rzrback77]

That trio of $3 WRs, M. Wilson, T. Dell and Nacua really lighting up the scoreboard. Keep it up guys!

 

[Puppies]

From NBC News....
No ACL injury for Kenny PIckett
Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of Sunday’s game with a knee injury and head coach Mike Tomlin said at his press conference that Pickett would need further evaluation before the team had a firm update on his condition.

Mike Florio of PFT reported on Sunday night that the Steelers were hopeful that Pickett suffered an MCL sprain and Mike Garafolo of NFL Media reports on Monday morning that initial testing on Pickett’s knee showed no injury to his ACL.

Pickett is still expected to miss time as a result of the injury, but an MCL sprain would likely mean they’re looking at a matter of weeks rather than a season-ending injury. The Steelers face the Ravens in Week Five and they have a bye in Week Six.

Mitch Trubisky replaced Pickett in Sunday’s loss to the Texans and would be the starter for however long Pickett is out of action.

 

[TheWinz]

11.65 above, with 1091 entries between the cut and my entry. Looking at the numbers a few posts above, I should be safe, but you never know.

 

[BroncosFan07]

No sweating of the turk this week however I will be sweating Goff every week until Pickett gets back as I'm now down Rodgers and Pickett. Lions have a week 9 bye so hoping to have Pickett back by then at the least (and then he also needs to figure out how to be good).

What a weird week. I've scored 200+ in weeks 2 and 3 only to see all of my main scorers not do much at all. This week I was bailed out by K. Herbert, Kamara, Ferguson, M. Wilson, and Jags defense. This is the first time I've used scores from 4 of those 5. I've used the Jaguars defense only once.

 

[steelcityman]

Kyren Williams and Puca as low dollar long shots are sure making the first month easy for me. I will need at least one to keep it up.
Easily above cut line with Walker still to go.

 

[BassNBrew]

That trio of $3 WRs, M. Wilson, T. Dell and Nacua really lighting up the scoreboard. Keep it up guys!

Large rosters destroying the small roosters. These $3 guys are making Chase look like a practice squad palyer.

 

[Balco]

That trio of $3 WRs, M. Wilson, T. Dell and Nacua really lighting up the scoreboard. Keep it up guys!

Large rosters destroying the small roosters. These $3 guys are making Chase look like a practice squad palyer.

Could be wrong but this usually evens out as the season progresses. But at the same time I don’t remember the last time so many $3 and $4 players have done so well.

 

[Puppies]

That trio of $3 WRs, M. Wilson, T. Dell and Nacua really lighting up the scoreboard. Keep it up guys!

Large rosters destroying the small roosters. These $3 guys are making Chase look like a practice squad palyer.

Could be wrong but this usually evens out as the season progresses. But at the same time I don’t remember the last time so many $3 and $4 players have done so well.

As long as I've tracked survival statistics, larger roster teams have always had higher survival rates overall, than smaller roster teams.
Below are some statistics to support this...

In 2022, (full season) .... 18 player rosters had the lowest survival rate at 1.19%, while 28 player rosters had the highest survival rate at 4.07%.
ALL rosters with 23 or more players had higher survival rates that ALL teams with 18 - 22 players.

I do not have statistics for 2021

In 2020, (weeks 1-9) .... 18 player rosters had the lowerst survival rate at 4.34% , while 27 player rosters had the highest survival rate throuhg week 9, at 14.29%.
ALL rosters with 24 or more players had higher survival rates than ALL teams with 18 - 23 players. (I was eliminated in week 5 and only recored stats through week 9)

In 2019, (weeks 1-8).... 18 player rosters had the lowest survival rate through 8 weeks at 17.35%, while 28 player rosters had the higherst survival rate at 41.59%
All but 1 roster size with 23 players or more had better surival rates than teams with 22 or fewer players.

In 2018, (weeks 1-12).... 18 player rosters had the lowest survival rate at 6.60%, while 28 player rosters had the highest survival rate at 6.60%.
ALL rosters with 23 or more players had higher survival rates than ALL teams with 18-22 players. (I was eliminated in week 9 and only tracked stats through week 12)

In 2016, (full season).... 18 player rosters had the lowest survival rate at 1.20%, while 28 player rosters had the highest survival rate at 3.18%
All rosters with 24 or more players had higher survival rates than ALL teams with 18 - 23 players.
So far this season (through 3 weeks), the lowest survival rate is with 18 player teams at 69.45%, and the highest is with 29 player teams at 89.55%,
So far this season, all teams with 25 or more players have higher survival rates than all teams with between 18 and 24 players.

It's anybody's guess how this year ends up, but I think we can all see a pretty solid pattern favoring larger roster teams for the last 5 years or so.