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2024 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
rustycolts
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
Hey Rusty,
I know you got booted, but didn't you carry 2 memberships last year?
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Did we get a file posted (CSV, etc.) that has all the rosters? If so I missed it, but if someone can link it I can maybe do some analysis / weekly writeups / etc.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
On Waldman Pond
Footballguy
Every roster size is beating the spread except 18 and 30. Go figure!
rustycolts
Footballguy
Yea I'm not quite dead yet.
- YouTube
Auf YouTube findest du die angesagtesten Videos und Tracks. Außerdem kannst du eigene Inhalte hochladen und mit Freunden oder gleich der ganzen Welt teilen.
youtu.be
Here's my other team. Hopefully it will be around a little longer.
Entry 109127
This entry survived week 2Week 2
| QB Jalen Hurts - $27 | 28.65 |
| QB Baker Mayfield - $14 | 23.65 |
| RB Raheem Mostert - $16 | 0.00 |
| RB Devin Singletary - $15 | 16.00 |
| RB Javonte Williams - $14 | 9.00 |
| RB Brian Robinson Jr. - $13 | 14.10 |
| RB Justice Hill - $2 | 4.20 |
| WR Tyreek Hill - $37 | 6.60 |
| WR DeVonta Smith - $21 | 20.60 |
| WR Keenan Allen - $18 | 0.00 |
| WR Mike Williams - $13 | 2.90 |
| WR Adam Thielen - $12 | 4.00 |
| WR Elijah Moore - $7 | 10.40 |
| WR Jauan Jennings - $3 | 5.70 |
| WR Tre Tucker - $3 | 3.30 |
| TE George Kittle - $15 | 24.10 |
| TE Cade Otton - $8 | -0.40 |
| PK Nick Folk - $3 | 6.10 |
| PK Graham Gano - $3 | 0.00 |
| TD Los Angeles Rams - $3 | 3.00 |
| TD Green Bay Packers - $3 | 7.00 |
| TOTAL | 142.55 |
| CUT LINE | 120.55 |
joey
Footballguy
Team 24 Roster Size checking in!
Thanks for this Turk! Is there an extension I need to add to this link? https://doug-dev.fbg-dev.com/contests/contest/player-scores
something like /week1, /week_1 or something like that? Right now I just get an empty page. Thanks again for providing this detail for us!
Instinctive
Footballguy
Idk that I'll survive without Kupp. Week 6 was always likely death anyway.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In a BB format, why would the contest use my TE that scored negative points over the TE who scored 0?
0 > -.40
Yet in my scoring, Otton is highlighted.
Seems like a glitch?
@Contest Turk - any thoughts?
0 > -.40
| TE Jake Ferguson - $17 | 0.00 |
| TE Cade Otton - $8 | -0.40 |
Yet in my scoring, Otton is highlighted.
Seems like a glitch?
@Contest Turk - any thoughts?
chocula
Footballguy
I only had two kickers to start and am basically down to one like you
chocula
Footballguy
Just to clarify...This is true for last year and this year, but there is no guarantee we will have that bonus next year,
TheWinz
Footballguy
Correct. Every year we will have to ask Joe if he is willing to make the same wager. I don't mind tracking it, but would prefer if someone else asks him each year.
Saint
Footballguy
* laugh emoji *
BassNBrew
Footballguy
* laugh emoji *
Blaming J when the Feds revise GDP down because of a decrease in productivity.
chocula
Footballguy
What is the black eye story?
BassNBrew
Footballguy
The FBG logo is called black-eyed Joe.What is the black eye story?
Saint
Footballguy
Love going old school… means we’ve been around since late 90s, early 2000s… @BassNBrew da@n we’re oldThe FBG logo is called black-eyed Joe.What is the black eye story?
TheWinz
Footballguy
I still have a black-eyed Joe sweater I won in an FBG limerick contest in 2008. I tried to find the thread but can't. It went something like this...
Some day I will tell my son,
the time I saw Westbrook run.
I was behind by just 5,
and yelled, YES, I'm alive,
then he took a knee at the one.
ZWK
Footballguy
I looked at ownership rates for pairs of players, using the data dump. Main finding is that stacking isn't that common; there isn't that strong a tendency for NFL teammates to be on the same team.
The most common pairing, on 12.6% of rosters, is Rashee Rice + Taysom Hill. Rice and Hill are the two most highly owned players - 37.2% for Rice and 28.4% for Hill. By chance you'd expect 10.6% of teams to have both, so 12.6% is just about +2% higher than expected (+2.1%, given rounding). Turns out that the 10 most common pairings all involve Rice, the most owned player.
The pair that is on the most rosters over expected, at +2.7% over expected, is Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze, who are together on 6.4% of rosters vs. 3.7% expected (23.0% of teams have Odunze and 16.3% have Williams). At 6.4%, this is also the most common pairing of teammates.
But most of the top 10 most common pairings over expected are just pairs of commonly owned players. CHI Williams+Odunze in 1st at +2.7% and WAS Daniels+McLaurin in 10th at +1.7% are the only two that are teammates. 6 of the top 10 involve Rashee Rice (including the Rashee+Taysom pairing already mentioned) and two involve $3 PK Joshua Karthy with $3 PK Bates and with $3 DEF GB. So the pattern of "a team that drafts some of the obvious highly-owned players also drafts others" looks stronger than the pattern of drafting teammates, and the pattern of some teams going for the cheap kickers & defenses is about as strong as the pattern of drafting teammates.
Another way to look at the CHI Williams+Odunze pairing is is that Caleb Williams is on 28.0% of teams that have Odunze vs. 12.8% of teams that don't have Odunze, a +15.2% gap. Ignoring some rarely owned pairs (who are together on <1% of teams), and focusing on the relative ownership rate of the less owned player, this is the 3rd largest gap. The largest 5 are:
+17.2%: Brandon Aubrey on 25.7% of teams with SF D vs. 8.5% of teams without
+16.1%: Cairo Santos on 22.8% of teams with CHI D vs. 6.7% of teams without
+15.2%: Caleb Williams on 28.0% of teams with Rome Odunze vs. 12.8% of teams without
+14.0%: Ravens D on 21.2% of teams with Justin Tucker vs. 7.1% of teams without
+13.8%: Christian McCaffrey on 19.2% of teams with CeeDee Lamb vs. 5.3% of teams without
That's two kicker-defense team stacks (CHI & BAL), one case where people who take the most expensive D also take the most expensive PK, and one case where people who take the most expensive WR also take the most expensive RB. Just two more stacks with a QB make the top 20, QB Levis at +12.0% higher on Calvin Ridley teams and Terry McLaurin at +11.2% higher on QB Daniels teams.
I would've looked more directly at how common stacks are, but the data files don't include which NFL team each player is on and I didn't want to go through the schlep of trying to add that, so instead I just looked at the most common pairings (calculating that a few different ways) and seeing what the patterns were.
The most common pairing, on 12.6% of rosters, is Rashee Rice + Taysom Hill. Rice and Hill are the two most highly owned players - 37.2% for Rice and 28.4% for Hill. By chance you'd expect 10.6% of teams to have both, so 12.6% is just about +2% higher than expected (+2.1%, given rounding). Turns out that the 10 most common pairings all involve Rice, the most owned player.
The pair that is on the most rosters over expected, at +2.7% over expected, is Caleb Williams + Rome Odunze, who are together on 6.4% of rosters vs. 3.7% expected (23.0% of teams have Odunze and 16.3% have Williams). At 6.4%, this is also the most common pairing of teammates.
But most of the top 10 most common pairings over expected are just pairs of commonly owned players. CHI Williams+Odunze in 1st at +2.7% and WAS Daniels+McLaurin in 10th at +1.7% are the only two that are teammates. 6 of the top 10 involve Rashee Rice (including the Rashee+Taysom pairing already mentioned) and two involve $3 PK Joshua Karthy with $3 PK Bates and with $3 DEF GB. So the pattern of "a team that drafts some of the obvious highly-owned players also drafts others" looks stronger than the pattern of drafting teammates, and the pattern of some teams going for the cheap kickers & defenses is about as strong as the pattern of drafting teammates.
Another way to look at the CHI Williams+Odunze pairing is is that Caleb Williams is on 28.0% of teams that have Odunze vs. 12.8% of teams that don't have Odunze, a +15.2% gap. Ignoring some rarely owned pairs (who are together on <1% of teams), and focusing on the relative ownership rate of the less owned player, this is the 3rd largest gap. The largest 5 are:
+17.2%: Brandon Aubrey on 25.7% of teams with SF D vs. 8.5% of teams without
+16.1%: Cairo Santos on 22.8% of teams with CHI D vs. 6.7% of teams without
+15.2%: Caleb Williams on 28.0% of teams with Rome Odunze vs. 12.8% of teams without
+14.0%: Ravens D on 21.2% of teams with Justin Tucker vs. 7.1% of teams without
+13.8%: Christian McCaffrey on 19.2% of teams with CeeDee Lamb vs. 5.3% of teams without
That's two kicker-defense team stacks (CHI & BAL), one case where people who take the most expensive D also take the most expensive PK, and one case where people who take the most expensive WR also take the most expensive RB. Just two more stacks with a QB make the top 20, QB Levis at +12.0% higher on Calvin Ridley teams and Terry McLaurin at +11.2% higher on QB Daniels teams.
I would've looked more directly at how common stacks are, but the data files don't include which NFL team each player is on and I didn't want to go through the schlep of trying to add that, so instead I just looked at the most common pairings (calculating that a few different ways) and seeing what the patterns were.
Last edited:
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Excellent read and thanks for doing this.
Main thoughts:
With this mainly being a survivor contest, it naturally sets up against stacking because you want bye weeks spread out.
Also value trumps stacking. While stacking might payoff in the finals, it isn't needed in the bulk of the event just trying to advance. Also with less less 250 teams in the final, stacking and ownership percentages really doesn't carry the weight it would in a DFS tournament.
Not surprising, but rookie fever will influence you results. If the Giants had drafted a rookie, Naber would have made your list. Since everyone hates Daniel Jones, he's not making your list. Harrison didn't get the umphhh because he cost 50% more for roughly the same predicted production.
CMAC and Lamb pairing isn't surprising as some people just try to start with the top players.
Regarding the D/K pairing, I think you found a method to sniff out the dumb money in this contest.
JustAnotherFantasyVet
Footballguy
Is there a user-friendly way to find our entry? Forgot what I put it under.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Hope this works. Just click on "Your Team's Status"
JustAnotherFantasyVet
Footballguy
Where do I find that?
Hope this works. Just click on "Your Team's Status"
JustAnotherFantasyVet
Footballguy
Where do I find that?
Hope this works. Just click on "Your Team's Status"
Nevermind, it worked, thanks!
Hope this works. Just click on "Your Team's Status"
Saint
Footballguy
I don’t know if that’s the case. I think Tucker has always been considered a top kicker and I believe Baltimore was ranked as a top defense. Just ironic they are on the same team. I think folks were trying to get top players at the positions.
TheWinz
Footballguy
2010 - Most expensive contest D were the $9 Jets. They finished D12
2011 - Most expensive contest D were the $9 Steelers. They finished D30
2012 - Most expensive contest D's were the $6 49ers, Eagles, Lions, and Packers. They finished D's 11, 18, 28, and 30
2013 - Most expensive contest D's were the $6 49ers and Seahawks. They finished D's 4 and 11
2014 - Most expensive contest D were the $9 Seahawks. They finished D23
2015 - Most expensive contest D were the $12 Seahawks. They finished D11
2016 - Most expensive contest D were the $8 Broncos. They finished D5
2017 - Most expensive contest D were the $9 Broncos. They finished D23
2018 - Most expensive contest D were the $10 Jaguars. They finished D25
2019 - Most expensive contest D were the $10 Bears. They finished D25
2020 - Most expensive contest D's were the $7 49ers and Steelers. They finished D's 1 and 24
2021 - Most expensive contest D's were the $7 Buccaneers and Steelers. They finished D's 4 and 21
2022 - Most expensive contest D's were the $7 Bills and Cowboys. They finished D's 3 and 13
2023 - Most expensive contest D's were the $7 49ers, Bills, Cowboys, Eagles, and Patriots. They finished D's 3, 5, 11, 20, and 25
Not once was the top D worth the money. And yes, I'm even talking about the 2020 Steelers, who finished D1. That year, there were 408 possible trio combos you could have rostered for the same $7. And how many of those trios outscored the Steelers? Every one of them! You couldn't have accidentally scored less, as long as you chose 3 D's totaling $7.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I miss the days of $10 Defense flame to attract the moths.
TheWinz
Footballguy
It's comical how many people still opt for expensive D's. Of the 5 D's for $7, all of them are in the top 18. Even if they finish 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 they still won't be worth it!
Army Eye
Footballguy
That was a bad link, they've got the good link up now at https://www.footballguys.com/contests/contest/raw-data
ZWK
Footballguy
I do think it's worth stacking, at least pairing each QB you roster with one of their receivers.
It helps a lot in the finals - a 200 team contest is plenty big for the positive correlation to matter (even a 20 team contest is).
And on the whole I'd guess that it helps your chances at being one of the 2% or so of teams that make the final. You're betting on that passing offense to have a good season, and if they do you probably get a bunch of good games out of two of your players. That probably outweighs the negative of both being on bye at the same time (you just have to be careful not to take too many other players with the same bye), and their down weeks coinciding. It might hurt your value a little, but if you have 10+ pass catchers on your roster that gives you some choices on which QB to target.
There can be a tradeoff where stacking hurts uniqueness, if most other managers are stacking. But in this contest the other mangers aren't stacking much so this isn't a problem.
Stray Doug
Footballguy
Gano's injury has me feeling better about my decision to roster 4 kickers (he was one of them).
TheWinz
Footballguy
Kicking off week 3 with the Jets vs Patriots. Ownership numbers are:
QB - Rodgers (457), Maye (130), Brissett (37), Taylor (20)
Rodgers was the 17th most common QB, and Brissett is still starting for the Pats, so what little amount the needle moves will be because of Rodgers
RB - Hall (1112), Allen (465), Stevenson (264), Gibson (83)
One out of every 9 teams will be rooting for Breece, so he will be tonight's line mover.
WR - Polk (734), Wilson (629), Douglas (206), Williams (162), Bourne (72), Corley (56), Baker (51), Gipson (51)
The 4 NE contest WR's have combined for 30 receiving yards, so Garrett Wilson will carry this bunch all by himself.
TE - Conklin (678), Henry (371), Hooper (69)
Conklin has played 90%+ snaps of both games and has 2 targets in each game. Aaron hates him! Hunter is the stud here.
K - Zuerlein (916), Slye (211)
The Leg started as the 6th most common kicker
D - NYJ (838), NE (310)
Jets were one of only 9 teams to start the contest with 1K+
QB - Rodgers (457), Maye (130), Brissett (37), Taylor (20)
Rodgers was the 17th most common QB, and Brissett is still starting for the Pats, so what little amount the needle moves will be because of Rodgers
RB - Hall (1112), Allen (465), Stevenson (264), Gibson (83)
One out of every 9 teams will be rooting for Breece, so he will be tonight's line mover.
WR - Polk (734), Wilson (629), Douglas (206), Williams (162), Bourne (72), Corley (56), Baker (51), Gipson (51)
The 4 NE contest WR's have combined for 30 receiving yards, so Garrett Wilson will carry this bunch all by himself.
TE - Conklin (678), Henry (371), Hooper (69)
Conklin has played 90%+ snaps of both games and has 2 targets in each game. Aaron hates him! Hunter is the stud here.
K - Zuerlein (916), Slye (211)
The Leg started as the 6th most common kicker
D - NYJ (838), NE (310)
Jets were one of only 9 teams to start the contest with 1K+
TheWinz
Footballguy
Remind me to show you my stats on 2 vs 3 vs 4 kickers
Saint
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
I added teams to the dataset, so now I can report that 35% of all rostered QBs (10113/28937) are stacked with at least 1 WR or TE from the same NFL team.
12% of entries stacked all of their QBs with at least 1 WR or TE (1454/11728)
51% of entries stacked some but not all of their QBs (6004/11728)
36% stacked none of their QBs (4270/11728)
Saint
Footballguy
Notes from last night:
- Biggest Loser: 264 Stevenson owners
- Biggest Reality Check: 371 Hunter Henry owners come back to reality
- Happiness Factor: 678 Conklin owners are glad Rodger's knows he exists
- Gaining Hope: 130 Drake Maye owners
- Losing Hope: 37 Jacoby Brisset owners
- Stars are Aligning: 457 Aaron Rodgers owners who have seen his stats increase each week. For 40+, he looked good last night, but then again, it's the Pats.
- Holding Steady: 629 Garret Wilson owners
- A Little Worried: 1112 Breece Hall owners who are seeing a committee split with 465 Braelon Allen owners
- Expecting a lot more: 162 MIke Williams owners
joey
Footballguy
Happy Campers: Mike Williams avoiders since 2020
dbc925
Footballguy
Somehow, I had forgotten about this. Which is weird, cause this contest is one of the highlights of my season. I checked in and I’m still still alive after week two. But I had a serious serious brain fart apparently and have Sam Howell instead of Sam Darnold. What was I thinking? What was I drinking? And somehow 14 other people have Howell on their rosters as well. I will not be repeating my 5th place finish this year.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Sam Howell is not the guy you have to worry about on your team. You need Jordan Love to get healthy fast, and losing Pacheco is gonna be tough after rostering just 4 RB's.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Entering week 3, this team would still be alive:
QB - Sam Darnold - MIN/6 - $9
RB - JK Dobbins - LAC/5 - $8
RB - Braelon Allen - NYJ/12 - $5
WR - Andrei Iosivas - CIN/12 - $5
WR - Alec Pierce - IND/14 - $4
TE - Isaiah Likely - BAL/14 - $9
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/9 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/6 - $4
Total value: 48
QB - Sam Darnold - MIN/6 - $9
RB - JK Dobbins - LAC/5 - $8
RB - Braelon Allen - NYJ/12 - $5
WR - Andrei Iosivas - CIN/12 - $5
WR - Alec Pierce - IND/14 - $4
TE - Isaiah Likely - BAL/14 - $9
PK - Chris Boswell - PIT/9 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/6 - $4
Total value: 48
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Is that Geno swimming?Howell could be the late seasonmove
-QG
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