Desert_Power
Footballguy
These mexican jerseys are pretty cool.
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2024 Summer of Soccer - Euro's, Copa America, Olympics, WCQing (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NewlyRetired
- Start date
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Dr. Joe seems worse than Mike Carey to me
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
No way
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I don't think it is a pk.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
that’s a dive
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Mexican fans about to cover themselves in class and glory.
prefontaine
Footballguy
Mexico out in group in two straight major tournaments
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Mexico can't even advance out of group at Copa America. What a sad and unserious team. That would never happen to the USMNT with a coach returning for a second cycle.
El Floppo
Footballguy
But seriously... No consequences, once again.
jabarony
Footballguy
That ECU #2 is the luckiest guy in earth today. Possibly 3pks he dodged. That last one was so dumb. He luckily got the ball first, but why even make that attempt? Once the attacker is by you and you’re on his back you gotta lay off. The attacker was at a bad angle with another defender and the goalie in good position. Dumb dummie.
Major
Footballguy
Cant believe Canada may be the only North American team to advance
gianmarco
Footballguy
Not for the men's team, at least.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I might be wearing biased glasses but I think I prefer the mess the US has instead of the mess Mexico is in. It just feels that on average our core players are more talented and younger.
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encaitar
Footballguy
Yeah, but the Mexican federation has zero issue firing a head coach that's not getting results.... so....
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I honestly don't know what any coach could do with that talent level. This one already has tried to remove the vets with younger players and there is nothing there.
There is a reason they have so few players in Europe right now. Alvarez is their only class player.
prefontaine
Footballguy
Exactly. Mexico is in a world of hurt. Not only is their current NT the lowest quality in my lifetime, their youth teams - something they've always excelled at - are hurting too. This is looking like it will be a long down cycle.
Moe.
Footballguy
Yeah and we can still blame our coach for bad results, not really an option for them. That actually might be Berhalter’s best attribute, we can pin all of our failings on him
FMF seems to be lost. Their only hope is that they can continue to poach dual nats that we develop.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Copa Group D scenarios
Colombia has advanced.
Brazil advances with
A win or tie
Or
A Costa Rica loss or tie
Or
A loss and a Costa Rica.win and the combined margin is 5 goals or less.
Or
A loss and a Costa Rica win and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica fails to outscore Brazil by 4+ goals
Or
A loss and a Costa Rica win and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica outscores Brazil by exactly 4 goals and Brazil has better discipline (currently CR 3 yellows and BRA 4 yellows) or they tie on that and Brazil's lucky ping pong ball is picked.
Costa Rica advances with
A win and a Brazil loss and the combined margin is 7+ goals
Or
A win and a Brazil loss and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica outscores Brazil by 5+ goals
Or
A win and a Brazil loss and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica outscores Brazil by exactly 4 goals and Costa Rica has better discipline (currently CR 3 yellows and BRA 4 yellows) or they tie on that and Costa Rica's lucky ping pong ball is picked.
Paraguay is eliminated.
So there you go.
-QG
Colombia has advanced.
Brazil advances with
A win or tie
Or
A Costa Rica loss or tie
Or
A loss and a Costa Rica.win and the combined margin is 5 goals or less.
Or
A loss and a Costa Rica win and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica fails to outscore Brazil by 4+ goals
Or
A loss and a Costa Rica win and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica outscores Brazil by exactly 4 goals and Brazil has better discipline (currently CR 3 yellows and BRA 4 yellows) or they tie on that and Brazil's lucky ping pong ball is picked.
Costa Rica advances with
A win and a Brazil loss and the combined margin is 7+ goals
Or
A win and a Brazil loss and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica outscores Brazil by 5+ goals
Or
A win and a Brazil loss and the combined margin is exactly 6 goals and Costa Rica outscores Brazil by exactly 4 goals and Costa Rica has better discipline (currently CR 3 yellows and BRA 4 yellows) or they tie on that and Costa Rica's lucky ping pong ball is picked.
Paraguay is eliminated.
So there you go.
-QG
The Z Machine
Footballguy
I've loved Navas for a looooooong time. I think it's great he went from speedy winger to seasoned right back. No his defense isn't spectacular and he's a liability defending set pieces, but he's still got some wheels and could be the father of some of thee youngsters.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Mexico will be hurting until they unearth some more talent. Really strange how their pipeline dried up, yet Uruguay has produced talent for years.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
BTW, can we talk about the 9 points from 3 games for the Vino Tinto??? My in-laws are STOKED, some of which are going to the QF. I truly hope they mudhole stomp the Cannucks.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
It's amazing that Marsch was able to create red cards on both Chile and Peru, while Berhalter did his on Weah. Proof that Marsch >> Berhalter I guess.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Some people are just more gifted than others.
El Floppo
Footballguy
I think Santi is a beast up top, but plays in more of a traditional euro 9 than the MF knows how to handle. It was interesting see them lump the ball up to him at the end... It was their only attack and felt like they were figuring it out but ran out of time. But The MF is the glaring weakness to me, especially defensively.
Sammy3469
Footballguy
It's pretty easy to support the guy when he centers the attack around you.
As my son has progressed in high level hockey, I'll just say that GGG reminds me of a lot of core club coaches who get by with politics, his guys, and making sure the game plan revolves his system and keeping his guys (and they're parents) happy. It's what the coach knows, his players are great with it since its what they like to do best, and everyone in the group is happy....until you get against better teams. However, you don't really want to be playing for that guy (and you certainly don't want your kids). They're effectively a caretaker for the team and your progression (and they tend to have the most hubris) and don't put players in a position to develop, but more importantly, don't challenge the team. They all talk a great game and seem like they are great (hey I've attracted the best players and have good enough records), until you're exposed to great coaches, coaches that always challenge, that adept, that don't play favorites, etc.
We've been stuck with a caretaker.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
We have been slightly disappointed with Balogun over all. Not great, not terrible but his average performance is not like how he played against Panama. From a scoring perspective, he has 5 goals in 14 appearances.
But Santi has been a disappointment for Mexico seeing that goal scoring is his thing. He only has 4 goals in 29 appearances.
While I agree that Mexico is likely not using him well, he also may be one of those guys that just thrives in the Eredivisie but finds scoring so much harder internationally.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
god I how I wish the US was really in a knock out game technically.
I can't get past the feeling the US may play well tonight, grab the 3 points and still not advance.
TennesseeJed
Footballguy
El Floppo
Footballguy
I'm already in the mindset that they're out, so for me... seeing what individual players step up in this game and how the team can impose itself against a better than usual opponent.
El Floppo
Footballguy
Hmmm the Dutch success thing could be something.
I was reading into that his teammates/team tactics just couldn't figure out how to use him.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
we don't need Bolivia to draw. They can still lose but they have to avoid losing by 2-3 goals.
If Bolivia some how manage a miracle draw, we don't even need a win. We just need to draw.
Best chance to advance is the US winning by 2-3 goals.
Moe.
Footballguy
I know, I understand the circumstances, just trying to be overly positive. A draw from them gives us some wiggle room in case we’re up 1 and give up a late goal for the draw, etc. Would be nice to hit the 80 minute mark and we’re up one and they are still level in the other match. Oddly enough goals scored is ahead of h2h on the tiebreaker hierarchy, so if we lose by one and Panama wins by 1 we’re through if we outscore them tonight.
El Floppo
Footballguy
That would be something.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
"Ridiculous" is the right word for that sequence.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The odds on this are really low. I'm a lot more worried we get trucked by a very good, in form, team.
The Gator
Footballguy
Hopefully Darwin has two left feet tonight
TennesseeJed
Footballguy
Quite the evolution...
TennesseeJed
Footballguy
I don't see much downside to that....
If, in fact, we get trucked - it will be a reflection of reality. That should cause everyone to take a step back and reassess where were are as a national team - manager, players, tactics - and how it all fits together.
Same, if we beat a good Uruguay team - assuming they are not mailing it in - a win should also cause everyone to reassess where we are - and perhaps the sky is not falling.
For me - the worst scenario - you get an Uruguayan team that is not trying, and we beat them. That says nothing about the state of the program. Are we good? Are we bad? Nobody will have an informed answer. If we lose the knockout game - it will be met with a shrug, since nobody is expecting us to win a knockout game against Colombia or Brazil.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Ok, this is a little tricky, but stick with me.
Using the odds at Oddschecker:
Since the odds of Win/Win are 21.21% and the odds of Lose/Lose are 6.11% it probably makes sense that the chances of the tie-breaker coming into play are proportionally similar to the two scenarios. 21.21%/27.32% = 77.64% for W/W, so...
Using the odds at Oddschecker:
- The US is 29.05% likely to just straight advance (USA W + Pan D or L; USA D + Pan D or L)
- Panama is 43.64% likely to just straight advance (Pan W + USA D or L; Pan D + USA Loss)
- So 27.31% of the time the US and Panama both win or both lose (which is where the goal difference and other tie-breakers comes in)
- If the US is 47.47% likely to advance and 29.05% of that is due to clear results, then the other 18.42% must come thru superior goal difference (or other tie-breakers).
- And the US goes out on GD or another tie-breaker 8.89% of the time (27.31% - 18.42%).
Since the odds of Win/Win are 21.21% and the odds of Lose/Lose are 6.11% it probably makes sense that the chances of the tie-breaker coming into play are proportionally similar to the two scenarios. 21.21%/27.32% = 77.64% for W/W, so...
- W/W - 77.64% * 8.89% = 6.90% chance of losing tie-breaker after two wins
- L/L - 21.36% * 8.89% = 1.99% chance of losing tie-breaker after two losses
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bagger
Footballguy
I was expecting Uruguay to be ranked in the top 10 with how everyone is talking about them but the US is actually ranked higher than them.
Are we just ranked much higher than we should be?
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Some of the rankings are just crap.
ETA: the first good rankings I looked up have Uruguay at #6 and the US at #30. That's much closer to right.
ETA: the first good rankings I looked up have Uruguay at #6 and the US at #30. That's much closer to right.
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