Alright, who's your:
1. Reach – The rookie you're grabbing higher than consensus.
Skattebo - I've clogged up his thread enough with my gushing over him
2. Fade – The one getting too much hype.
Higgins - I don't think he was even the best WR on his own team in college, yet continually goes ahead of him in rookie drafts. Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane in the fact he's built like an X and often lined up at X, yet has issues getting separation and grades very poorly against man and press coverage. Seemed like his path to NFL success was going to be playing as a large slot. Then the Texans took his teammate Noel who is a primary slot and just does everything Higgins does, but better. I think at best, taking him at his current ADP is requiring him to hit his ceiling to pay off. Many other guys at the 1/2 turn of rookie drafts with a much higher ceiling IMO.
3. Avoid – No matter where they fall, you’re out.
Shedeur. It's the Browns, the team is a perpetual mess, and I wonder his value even if everything goes right for him and he winds up the starter. I also found him incredibly unlikable. I don't really believe in rooting against anyone in life (too much negative energy, just ignore them at that point); I also don't want to be in a position where I have to root for this guy either.
4. Sleeper – That late pick who could blow up.
Brashard Smith. I can't help but wear the rosiest of rose tinted glasses and be supremely impressed with his level of play at the college level his senior year at a position he'd never played before in his life. I think he can pack on weight and can work on easily coachable/improvable things like footwork and timing, but his natural abilities (exceptional vision, hands, contact balance, explosion, and acceleration) are some of the qualities we only see in the top backs in the league. And landed on a team with basically 0 playmakers.