Contest Turk
Footballguy
Definitely. Almost everyone will be officially eliminated after the 3rd round.
That was of course true of the old format as well. And probably any NFL playoff pool with several thousand entries.
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Official 2022-2023 Post Season FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Dacomish
- Start date
Definitely. Almost everyone will be officially eliminated after the 3rd round.
That was of course true of the old format as well. And probably any NFL playoff pool with several thousand entries.
Contest Turk
Footballguy
E.g. there are 118 entries with this Super Bowl Six: MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04
Here are the other most popular SB6s:
Here are the other most popular SB6s:
Code:
MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 118
MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00PurdBr00McCaCh00KittGe00 110
MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00HurtJa00SandMi00BrowAJ00 78
AlleJo01DaviGa01DiggSt00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 62
MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00McCaCh00SamuDe00KittGe00 61
AlleJo01DiggSt00PurdBr00McCaCh00SamuDe00KittGe00 58
MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00HurtJa00BrowAJ00GoedDa00 58
AlleJo01SingDe00DiggSt00HurtJa00SandMi00BrowAJ00 48
MahoPa00McKiJe01KelcTr00PurdBr00McCaCh00SamuDe00 46
AlleJo01DaviGa01DiggSt00PurdBr00McCaCh00KittGe00 45
AlleJo01CookJa05DiggSt00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 40
AlleJo01SingDe00DiggSt00PurdBr00McCaCh00KittGe00 38
MahoPa00KelcTr00PurdBr00McCaCh00SamuDe00KittGe00 36
AlleJo01DiggSt00HurtJa00SandMi00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 36
BurrJo01ChasJa00HiggTe00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 35
AlleJo01SingDe00DiggSt00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 33
AlleJo01DaviGa01DiggSt00HurtJa00SandMi00BrowAJ00 32
AlleJo01DaviGa01DiggSt00McCaCh00SamuDe00KittGe00 29
BurrJo01ChasJa00HiggTe00PurdBr00McCaCh00KittGe00 28
AlleJo01CookJa05DiggSt00HurtJa00SandMi00BrowAJ00 28
BurrJo01MixoJo00ChasJa00PurdBr00McCaCh00KittGe00 28
AlleJo01DiggSt00KnoxDa00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 27
AlleJo01DiggSt00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04GoedDa00 27
AlleJo01DiggSt00KnoxDa00HurtJa00BrowAJ00GoedDa00 26
AlleJo01DaviGa01DiggSt00HurtJa00BrowAJ00GoedDa00 26
MahoPa00PachIs00KelcTr00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 25
AlleJo01DiggSt00KnoxDa00McCaCh00SamuDe00KittGe00 25
AlleJo01SingDe00DiggSt00McCaCh00SamuDe00KittGe00 25
BurrJo01MixoJo00ChasJa00HurtJa00BrowAJ00SmitDe04 23
AlleJo01DiggSt00KnoxDa00PurdBr00McCaCh00KittGe00 23
BurrJo01MixoJo00ChasJa00HurtJa00SandMi00BrowAJ00 23
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Regarding step 2, I think the pool to pick your 6 players is maybe 8 or 9 total. Probably need to win this in step 1.
P.S. I hate soccer
NotSmart
Footballguy
Ditto Rock... and I come from the internet of course... life is full of changes and curveballs, but one way or another, I've always found my way back to FBG.
rockaction
Footballguy
I hope things are good, man, and that the changes and curveballs have been edifying rather than enervating.
NotSmart
Footballguy
I'm not sure if you're saying there will be an official cut after the 3rd round?
Or just that logically speaking, if you didn't get the SB picks correct that you have no chance of winning?
rockaction
Footballguy
This is me, if I'm not mistaken.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Thoughts
I like the fact that the format keeps a certain premium on getting the Super Bowl teams right, but adds the added dimension of figuring out when exactly teams are going to lose. Be able to pick noble losers will matter as much as the winners here.
While there are 'chalk' positions it does seem like is definitely the prospect of curveball players being the ultimate difference maker in this contest. But it is so hard to pick that 'zag' buy later than the bigger stud on the given team.
And if there is an upset team or two in the Super Bowl there could be some wild scenarios in play though I think
I like that this format takes away the bye-team penalty as well.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
-QG
I like the fact that the format keeps a certain premium on getting the Super Bowl teams right, but adds the added dimension of figuring out when exactly teams are going to lose. Be able to pick noble losers will matter as much as the winners here.
While there are 'chalk' positions it does seem like is definitely the prospect of curveball players being the ultimate difference maker in this contest. But it is so hard to pick that 'zag' buy later than the bigger stud on the given team.
And if there is an upset team or two in the Super Bowl there could be some wild scenarios in play though I think
I like that this format takes away the bye-team penalty as well.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
-QG
Contest Turk
Footballguy
The latter. There won't be a cut per se, but lots of people will be mathematically eliminated after round 3.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I think that The Turk meant that teams will be locked out of winning by other entries with the same Super Bowl players. There is no mention of cut lines in the official rules.
-QG
Contest Turk
Footballguy
I'm going to put a link on the standings page so that you can see the standings among all entries who have the same Super Bowl Six as you.
rockaction
Footballguy
I like this contest better than the other one because you won't be playing against guys that didn't pick brackets or winners in the first few rounds. It rewards prognostication a little more than the previous format, which had devolved.
Contest Turk
Footballguy
Sorry, yeah. I didn't read your question carefully enough.
And of course, for many people, there is more to a contest than winning. Even if you're mathematically eliminated from winning, you can still root for a higher overall finish.
NotSmart
Footballguy
Correct, there's no mention the rules, which is why I wanted to make sure this wasn't a late change.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Ugh 35 with my 6. I should have thrown more of a random in there like a Hurst or MoneyMac :(
I actually switched off of GoGurt I think - shoulda stuck with that.
-QG
Contest Turk
Footballguy
The elephant in the room is that a bunch of people turned in entries with no chance of winning in the old format. There will be far less of that here. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing depends on your point of view!
Contest Turk
Footballguy
First glance: I think people were too chalky. If I could re-enter after seeing the entries, I'd opt for something closer to this:
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
It's a good thing. More of a challenge and more people with a legit chance is good
-QG
rockaction
Footballguy
First glance: I think people were too chalky. If I could re-enter after seeing the entries, I'd opt for something closer to this:
Of course it's Adam Harstad. That's awesome.
Contest Turk
Footballguy
But I also agree with some of the criticisms of the new format in this thread. Maybe some tweaks can make this format better, while keeping its simplicity (Joe has a strong preference for simplicity).
TheWinz
Footballguy
@Contest Turk
Just wondering, how many entries were there?
Just wondering, how many entries were there?
NotSmart
Footballguy
I'm a huge fan of simplicity as well.
I mean, I guess, obviously.
But really, if a contest gets too complicated and takes too much time to realistically analyze, it's not fun anymore.
Contest Turk
Footballguy
4088
That is an interesting method but my assumption is if you don’t have both SB QBs you might be hurting. I could be wrong.First glance: I think people were too chalky. If I could re-enter after seeing the entries, I'd opt for something closer to this:
Of course it's Adam Harstad. That's awesome.
Contest Turk
Footballguy
Yeah, what I try to do is maximize the interestingness-to-complicatedness ratio. Both those terms have different meanings to different people, though, so it's hard. But that's the goal.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The one thing I'll say is that the contest scoring basically makes defensive teams unroosterable and makes kickers very much a dubious proposition. And the difference in reception points bw RB and WR seems very pronounced in this particular format as well. But all that said I mean I think there's enough variety there.
Yes there are folks with "chalk' in their 6 players for the Super Bowl - but that's not going to lock out the people who take the TE instead, or the 3rd WR or what have you - and those guys might be the ones that end up winning it. I think 3 and 3 is sort of what will be the 'default' play (and tbh I'm most irked about myself doing THAT with my rooster).
I'd suggest letting it play out a couple years under this format before tweaking things too hard.
-QG
Yes there are folks with "chalk' in their 6 players for the Super Bowl - but that's not going to lock out the people who take the TE instead, or the 3rd WR or what have you - and those guys might be the ones that end up winning it. I think 3 and 3 is sort of what will be the 'default' play (and tbh I'm most irked about myself doing THAT with my rooster).
I'd suggest letting it play out a couple years under this format before tweaking things too hard.
-QG
This may be too simplistic but my strategy was to fill out the whole bracket (ended up with SF and KC in the superbowl. Then I went back and looked at the player pool of the LOSING teams that week (figuring that if I was right that would be the only chance to use those losing players) and picked what I thought was the highest scoring 6 from all of the losing teams.....Next round I did the same....all the teams I had losing that round and took the best of the losers. ect ect
Lastly I took KC players and SF players in the final round. I figured if I was going to end up with zeros it would be because of an error I made predicting the winners and losers. With picking all players from teams that I thought all would lose I think it capped my upside BUT if I picked right it eliminated any chance of a zero.
Lastly I took KC players and SF players in the final round. I figured if I was going to end up with zeros it would be because of an error I made predicting the winners and losers. With picking all players from teams that I thought all would lose I think it capped my upside BUT if I picked right it eliminated any chance of a zero.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
@Contest Turk - how many different final 6 combinations were there?
Oh and it looks like the Seahawks are trying to blow up the contest already
-QG
Oh and it looks like the Seahawks are trying to blow up the contest already
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
woulda couda shoulda - this was first rooster that I later changed away from:
Stefon Diggs - WR - BUF
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Austin Ekeler - RB - LAC
Kirk Cousins - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Tyler Lockett - WR - SEA
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
Gabe Davis - WR - BUF
Dak Prescott - QB - DAL
Trevor Lawrence - QB - JAX
Zay Jones - WR - JAX
Deebo Samuel - WR - SF
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Brock Purdy - QB - SF
Christian McCaffrey - RB - SF
George Kittle - TE - SF
Joe Burrow - QB - CIN
Ja'Marr Chase - WR - CIN
Tee Higgins - WR - CIN
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
Quez Watkins - WR - PHI
-QG
Stefon Diggs - WR - BUF
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Austin Ekeler - RB - LAC
Kirk Cousins - QB - MIN
Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
Tyler Lockett - WR - SEA
Josh Allen - QB - BUF
Gabe Davis - WR - BUF
Dak Prescott - QB - DAL
Trevor Lawrence - QB - JAX
Zay Jones - WR - JAX
Deebo Samuel - WR - SF
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC
JuJu Smith-Schuster - WR - KC
Travis Kelce - TE - KC
Brock Purdy - QB - SF
Christian McCaffrey - RB - SF
George Kittle - TE - SF
Joe Burrow - QB - CIN
Ja'Marr Chase - WR - CIN
Tee Higgins - WR - CIN
Jalen Hurts - QB - PHI
DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
Quez Watkins - WR - PHI
-QG
Contest Turk
Footballguy
@Contest Turk - how many different final 6 combinations were there?
Oh and it looks like the Seahawks are trying to blow up the contest already
-QG
On the first question, I'll get back to you later. On the second....
0
3
11
Contest Turk
Footballguy
NOTE: on your roster page, I added a link near the top, so you can see the standings among only those entries that have the same Super Bowl Six as you.
TheWinz
Footballguy
In the Wildcard round, you have:
Trevor Lawrence - QB - JAX, Travis Etienne - RB - JAXAustin Ekeler - RB - LAC
Daniel Jones - QB - NYG
Geno Smith - QB - SEA
Tom Brady - QB - TB
In the Divisional round (points multiplied by 2), you have:
Joe Burrow - QB - CIN, Ja'Marr Chase - WR - CINDak Prescott - QB - DAL
Justin Herbert - QB - LAC
Kirk Cousins - QB - MIN, Justin Jefferson - WR - MIN
In the Championship round (points multiplied by 3), you have:
Josh Allen - QB - BUF, Devin Singletary - RB - BUF, Stefon Diggs - WR - BUFBrock Purdy - QB - SF, Christian McCaffrey - RB - SF, George Kittle - TE - SF
In the Super Bowl (points multiplied by 5), you have:
Patrick Mahomes - QB - KC, Jerick McKinnon - RB - KC, Travis Kelce - TE - KCJalen Hurts - QB - PHI, A.J. Brown - WR - PHI, DeVonta Smith - WR - PHI
Contest Turk
Footballguy
@Contest Turk - how many different final 6 combinations were there?
Oh and it looks like the Seahawks are trying to blow up the contest already
-QG
1833 distinct Super Bowl Sixes.
1544 entries have a unique Super Bowl Six.
This thing is going to play out very differently if the Super Bowl is KC/BUF/CIN vs SF/PHI compared to if it's not. I'll try to analyze the SB6s in terms of team composition later today or tomorrow.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
I prefer playing against people who can’t be bothered to read the rules.
That is insanely highly gone the potential sb teams and players available. That’s like 100 entries that will be the same. You could have the perfect 6 in the Super Bowl and be eliminated beforehand.
Contest Turk
Footballguy
Super Bowl players, by NFL team:
Code:
PHI 5987
SF 5708
BUF 5425
KC 5077
CIN 1672
DAL 256
MIN 199
TB 94
LAC 61
NYG 33
JAX 13
MIA 2
BAL 1
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Contest Turk
Footballguy
Round 3:
Round 2:
Round 1:
Code:
KC 6451
PHI 5271
SF 4959
BUF 4101
CIN 2499
MIN 470
DAL 377
TB 158
LAC 137
NYG 45
JAX 33
SEA 13
BAL 10
MIA 4Round 2:
Code:
CIN 6264
MIN 3096
LAC 2747
BUF 2174
DAL 2171
PHI 2115
SF 1934
KC 1654
TB 943
JAX 911
NYG 407
SEA 41
MIA 39
BAL 32Round 1:
Code:
LAC 4172
MIN 3390
NYG 3361
JAX 2887
TB 2613
DAL 2507
MIA 1301
SEA 1110
CIN 1075
SF 725
BAL 700
BUF 687Contest Turk
Footballguy
Too many people split their super bowl 3/3. I have a KC/SF super bowl and still have a unique Super Bowl Six with a 4/2 split.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
@Contest Turk - how many different final 6 combinations were there?
Oh and it looks like the Seahawks are trying to blow up the contest already
-QG
1833 distinct Super Bowl Sixes.
1544 entries have a unique Super Bowl Six.
This thing is going to play out very differently if the Super Bowl is KC/BUF/CIN vs SF/PHI compared to if it's not. I'll try to analyze the SB6s in terms of team composition later today or tomorrow.
So a solid 40% or so are unique - that's pretty good imo
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Contest Turk
Footballguy
In hindsight, a Seattle-heavy lineup would be hugely +EV.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
- 32 of the last 64 Super Bowl participants were No. 1 seeds.
- 14 of the last 32 Super Bowl champions were No. 1 seeds
I dont mind them turning in entries with no chance of winning. What bugs me is people getting an advantage BECAUSE they didnt read the rules....i.e. no first round starters in a contest that cuts x number of teams over y and it turns out there is no cuts.
rockaction
Footballguy
I remember that year. The problem that year is that some astute members of the board knew enough to know there would be no cuts and nobody put action on it. That benefitted the non-readers.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Via Quizzomatic:
-QG
| PURDY | SF | QB | 42.20 |
| MCCAFFREY | SF | RB | 20.60 |
| SAMUEL | SF | WR | 28.50 |
| MASON | SF | RB | 1.20 |
| MITCHELL | SF | RB | 9.70 |
| AIYUK | SF | WR | 10.30 |
| J JENNINGS | SF | WR | 6.10 |
| KITTLE | SF | TE | 6.70 |
| JUSZCZYK | SF | RB | 1.10 |
| GOULD | SF | PK | 17.40 |
| SF DEF | SF | DEF | 7.00 |
| G SMITH | SEA | QB | 26.45 |
| WALKER | SEA | RB | 13.10 |
| DJ DALLAS | SEA | RB | 1.30 |
| METCALF | SEA | WR | 35.60 |
| LOCKETT | SEA | WR | 9.90 |
| C JOHNSON | SEA | WR | 6.90 |
| PARKINSON | SEA | TE | 5.90 |
| FANT | SEA | TE | 2.60 |
| D YOUNG | SEA | WR | 2.10 |
| MYERS | SEA | PK | 7.60 |
| SEA DEF | SEA | DEF | 1.00 |
-QG
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