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Week 15 who should I start thread **OFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Chaka

Footballguy
seems Aaron Jones is the play over Dillon in one league so I just need one from these 4 in my second league  

0.5 ppr

Gordon vs CIN 

jeff wilson vs ATL

foreman vs PIT

sony vs SEA
Melvin has been your best and most consistent player of this group all season

Melvin>The Field

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I almost never do these crazy last minute adjustments, but is it feasible to start St Brown in .5 ppr over DJ Moore as underdog? Pittmans trash game has me thinking I need some upside surprises 
Yes, it's feasible and in a PPR I might do just that.

Amon-Ra>DJ

 

wgoldsph

Footballguy
Okay kids my long shot of the week to go nuts - Shenault Jax WR

Why?  They're playing Houston and I expect jags to have the biggest F U game ever.  Everyone might score on that team, and Shenault playing like cpatt/deebo is an option.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Who do I start at QB? Standard QB scoring

Newton

Bridgewater

Huntley

i have survived this year on a QB rotation of Darnold, Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor,  and Newton

i picked up Huntley this morning to give myself another option. Not sure if I should go with Newton and hope for the best or wait until 4:00 and go with Huntley if he is starting.

This is a 16 team IDP dynasty so QB doesn’t have as big an impact as some other leagues.
OOOOOOOooooof...

Gonna say Bridgewater because of weapons, facing a tough offense and the uncertainty around the others.

Bridgewater>Cam>Huntley

 

tigerz

Footballguy
Thanks, Chaka. Great reasoning and thoughts as always. Mixon is a crazy workhorse, and IMO, is a better back than Robinson. It's all match-up. Looks like I make my decision at 9:55 AM West Coast Time. 


FYI, I wanted to look into the stats of RBs vs Denver. Still close for me between Mixon / Kamara / Robinson / Conner... I think they are all comparable. However, based on likely game scripts and scenarios I think Mixon is going to have the lowest probability of reaching his ceiling. He can, but I think the other guys have higher probability.

Average of lead RBs vs Denver over 14 weeks:

12.5 rushes/59 rush yds/4.7 ypc/.36 rush TD
2.5 rec/25.21 yds/9 ypr/.14 rec TDs

You can see, very low TDs vs Broncos. Murray/Najee/Jacobs/Drake/Dernest were the ones who scored rushing TDs. Only Drake and Ekeler scored receiving TDs.

Average non PPR FP are 11.4 with average rank of 23.84 for RBs against Denver.

Denver is also better against the pass than the run so I'm not sure Bengals will dominate them through air either. If anything will be a close, low scoring game TBH.

Denver will also plan to run over Bengals and dominate time of posession. Bengals have good run D but weak pass D. Don't think this will be a lopsided game that favors Mixon or will have a lot of 1st and goal situations. Given the .36 TDs scored per game on average on the ground, I feel Mixon doesn't have a high probability of reaching his ceiling. He can, and has the talent, but his FP really are TD heavy and this is not a matchup conducive to TDs.

Football is random though so GL either way.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Choose 2 of these 5. Lots of question marks I know... PPR scoring

Devonta Freeman vs GB

Myles Gaskin vs NYJ

Marquis Brown vs GB

Darrel Henderson Jr vs SEA

Rashaad Penny vs STL
Henderson>Penny>Gaskin>Brown/Freeman

 

Loipz

Footballguy
One last one, need one of these 

4pt passing TD league 

hurts vs WFT

jimmy G vs ATL

seems the extra 2 days of rest puts hurts on the right side of questionable? 
 

Jimmy G may need to throw more with no Eli to pound the ball 30 times? Kittle been on a monster run?

am I overthinking it? Hurts the obvious play?

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Need to choose one ,   M Brown, Bateman or G Davis?    SF,  PPR,  I am favored by a bit in the semi finals, but...

Brown seems best with Jackson at qb

Bateman seems best with Huntley at qb

Davis is a decent pivot off of any more Baltimore players

Except I need to play either Jackson or Huntley in my 2 nd qb spot
I honestly have no opinion here, too many moving parts.  

Gut says M.Brown>Davis>Bateman

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Okay, I went Robinson/Harris/Cook and benched Mixon. 

What can I say? I'm sentimental about Robinson. 

LOL. I just switched again. Mixon in. 

 
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Chaka

Footballguy
QB - Tua or Burrow (I have Lamar but not chancing that).  Starting Mixon and Gesicki.

Also - AJ Green or Hollywood Brown.  .5 PPR.  Also have lockett but not sure he will play.
Burrow>Tua don't overthink it.

If you have a backup to Lockett I might wait on that.

AJ>Brown but not by much.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
One last one, need one of these 

4pt passing TD league 

hurts vs WFT

jimmy G vs ATL

seems the extra 2 days of rest puts hurts on the right side of questionable? 
 

Jimmy G may need to throw more with no Eli to pound the ball 30 times? Kittle been on a monster run?

am I overthinking it? Hurts the obvious play?
Jimmy G>Huntley

 

tigerz

Footballguy
Okay, I went Robinson/Harris/Cook and benched Mixon. 

What can I say? I'm sentimental about Robinson. 
Good luck to us both.  Robinson averaged 5 YPC and 9.7 YPR last time. Can't see him having a bad day if he gets volume.

Top 10 finishes against HOU
Chubb 6 - 15.8
Taylor - 2 - 27.8
Henderson 2 - 21.3
Taylor again - 1 26.3
Penny - 25.8

 
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rockaction

Footballguy
Good luck to us both.  Robinson averaged 5 YPC and 9.7 YPR last time. Can't see him having a bad day if he gets volume.

Top 10 finishes against HOU
Chubb 6 - 15.8
Taylor - 2 - 27.8
Henderson 2 - 21.3
Taylor again - 1 26.3
Penny - 25.8
I subbed Mixon back in. Jeez. Couldn't help it. 

 

Chaka

Footballguy
It’s Jalen Hurts sorry lol

edit to add thanks for this weekly. You’ve been great!
:wall:

So sorry man, totally misread that one and I was pressing for time.

I agree that the extra two days favors Hurts and I do think he is probably the better play that Jimmy Garappolo because of his mobility.  The Covid thing makes WFT tough to predict but I think it probably favors Philly.

Still Garappolo is Steady Eddie and has been performing well for weeks now. It isn't a terrible idea to start him if you are worried about the downside of Hurts injury. Garappolo should be good for 250 & 2 TDs

Hurts>Garappolo

If you favor a safer floor

Garappolo>Hurts

 

Chaka

Footballguy
QB2: Huntley vs GB or Fields vs Minny? Or Mayfield vs Raiders if he clears COVID?
I like Fields here.

Minnesota is a slumpbuster and they score plenty so Fields will have opportunity to put up points.  Whether or not he succeeds is another question entirely but the opportunity is there.

Fields>Huntley>Baker

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Robinson is going to make me regret not benching Najee, which is what I had done about eight times and thought was nuts. Oof. 

 

sho nuff

Footballguy
Ive gone back and forth over and over again with Javonte and Penny and Tee Higgins (playing 2 of the three).  Standard scoring.

With Kyler stinking up the joint…I need big points/upside.  

have been going with Higgins and Javonte…but does Penny have the bigger upside to keep Javonte in and bench Higgins?

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Ive gone back and forth over and over again with Javonte and Penny and Tee Higgins (playing 2 of the three).  Standard scoring.

With Kyler stinking up the joint…I need big points/upside.  

have been going with Higgins and Javonte…but does Penny have the bigger upside to keep Javonte in and bench Higgins?
Higgins seems like the must start of the three. Three 100+ yard games in a row on 29 targets & 2 TDs. He may finally have become the #1 WR in Cinci.

I would argue that Penny has more upside because he has less competition and he has been impressive in each of the very few times he has gotten 12+ opportunities. But he's definitely a bigger risk.

Truth is there isn't really a wrong answer in your choices, but there may be negative outcomes.

Higgins>Penny>Javonte 

 

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