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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Cut lion is 134.20 after the 4pm games

My official ghost entry would be thoroughly dead at 96.90 + (Bigsby/Evans - 0.00/4.30/7.20/20.80) + (Chase/Doubs - 0.00/4.30/19.00/23.90) + (Musgrave - 0.00)

My woulda coulda shoulda entry that I went away from would be in trouble too but in better shape:
98.20 + (Love - 0.00) + (Bigsby - 0.00/2.20/6.70) + (S Moore/Higgins/Doubs - 0.00/2.20/19.00/23.90) + (Musgrave - 0.00/2.20/4.70)

Good luck to those sweating the Turk!
-QG
 
Did anyone record the cut line after the 1pm games? I was tied up and did not have a chance to check. I'd like to know for statistical purposes so if anyone knows what it was (assuming they posted a cut line after the 1pm games), please let me know. Thanks!
 
I need a few above average games:

Love has to replace Herbert’s 10.10
Watson also has to clear 10
Etienne, Evan Engram, Skyy Moore (lol) could use an above average game from one of them too
 
Jordan Love the biggest potential line mover tonight with 145 owners (29%). Doubs at 63, Pacheco 43, Reed 41, Mahomes 33, Kelce 23, Watson 20, Rice 18.
 
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Tomorrow night guys who score regularly are Ridley 151, McManus 74, Mixon 58, Etienne Jr., 33, Engram 30, Chase 13, Kirk 8. Bigsby has high ownership (100) but has been bumped to 3rd string and high score was 7.3 in week 1. Jags D only other widely owned at 70.
 
Was booted last week, but would be sitting at 151.05 with likely only Mixon to replace a crappy 4.3 flex score
 
Balco said:
I need a few above average games:

Love has to replace Herbert’s 10.10
Watson also has to clear 10
Etienne, Evan Engram, Skyy Moore (lol) could use an above average game from one of them too
Click to expand...
Thank you Christian Watson! Guy has been dead weight all season and has come up big for me last two weeks.
 
Balco said:
Balco said:
I need a few above average games:

Love has to replace Herbert’s 10.10
Watson also has to clear 10
Etienne, Evan Engram, Skyy Moore (lol) could use an above average game from one of them too
Click to expand...
Thank you Christian Watson! Guy has been dead weight all season and has come up big for me last two weeks.
Click to expand...
And going forward it looks like he will be dead weight on my team again! Yikes.
 
TheWinz said:
Stray Doug said:
With 2:31 to go in Q3 of SNF, I have cutline up to 139.9
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Hey, you got a new avatar!
Click to expand...

I think I had a similar one many years ago (black and white Calvin) but just kinda finally dawned on me that I was just a generic "S" now. Not sure when or why that happened.

jdk, I suspect you've got a mistake... I have the lion at 142.7 heading into MNF.

Solid game from Carlson, I'm now well clear at 167.4 (possibly more from Chase on MNF).

I'm also up to 19 out of my 26 flexes this season being WRs. I think I've learned from past seasons where I tended to underinvest in WRs. I usually have gone with TE studs (had Kelce/Kittle the year I finished 2nd) but a combo of bye weeks and perceived value convinced me to go a different direction this year. I expect it'll be 6 Dotson, 5 Chase, 3 Nacua, 2 Reed, 1 each Hill/Hodgins/Wilson. Rounding it out are non-WRs, 3 Musgrave, 2 Ekeler, 1 each Herd/Kamara.

If I survive week 14, I'm hopeful to get Waller and Michael Wilson back into the mix for the playoffs... less optimistic that we'll see Musgrave again. The fact that these are my only 3 injuries at the moment is a large part of why I'm still alive.
 
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Stray Doug said:
TheWinz said:
Stray Doug said:
With 2:31 to go in Q3 of SNF, I have cutline up to 139.9
Click to expand...
Hey, you got a new avatar!
Click to expand...

I think I had a similar one many years ago (black and white Calvin) but just kinda finally dawned on me that I was just a generic S.

jdk, I suspect you've got a mistake... I have the lion at 142.7 heading into MNF. Solid game from Carlson, I'm now well clear at 167.4 (possibly more from Chase on MNF).
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Yes, I deleted my post as soon as I found my mistake. I left in the estimated values for tomorrow's game, which means that is actually my estimate for the cutline after tomorrow night.

I also get 142.7 after tonight.

I'm sitting comfortably at 179.15.
 
So what's the estimate for post-MNF?

I'm in the unfortunate position of needing a big game from the Jaguars D to survive. Which is possible, except in my mail league I'm on the other side, where a strong Jags D game costs me a must-win game. So it's probably one or the other.

(Spoiler: There will turn out to be a very slim margin where I can lose both, and that's exactly where the Jags will end up.)
 
smcindoe said:
So what's the estimate for post-MNF?

I'm in the unfortunate position of needing a big game from the Jaguars D to survive. Which is possible, except in my mail league I'm on the other side, where a strong Jags D game costs me a must-win game. So it's probably one or the other.

(Spoiler: There will turn out to be a very slim margin where I can lose both, and that's exactly where the Jags will end up.)
Click to expand...

I think jdk had it at 150.7 when plugging in the FBG estimates for JAX/CIN players.
 
Stray Doug said:
smcindoe said:
So what's the estimate for post-MNF?

I'm in the unfortunate position of needing a big game from the Jaguars D to survive. Which is possible, except in my mail league I'm on the other side, where a strong Jags D game costs me a must-win game. So it's probably one or the other.

(Spoiler: There will turn out to be a very slim margin where I can lose both, and that's exactly where the Jags will end up.)
Click to expand...

I think jdk had it at 150.7 when plugging in the FBG estimates for JAX/CIN players.
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In that case, thank you and good night, unless MNF ends up being the long-awaited Tank Bigsby game.
 
For the first time in a long while, I have no reason to watch MNF tonight. Most all my regular leagues games are settled, and I’m comfortably at 50 over the lion here.

Next week, I’m only missing Conner and the WAS D, and they’ve counted for me less often than they haven ‘t.

Mrs. C will be happy if I watch The Voice with her.
 
As a Chase owner I’m just glad to see he’s still capable of having an impact with Browning throwing the ball. Didn’t need the points this week, but it’s a good sign going forward!
 
Well the woulda coulda shoulda entry finished at 146.15 which looks no good. So officially no regerts

Good luck to this continuing on. Go get Joe B's money!

-QG
 
Awards and notable teams of the week.

Strongest Living Team: One Giant Loss (#107797) is still the strongest team, averaging 189.3 points per week, but they haven’t reached that level since week 8. That they’re still on top tells you just how strong they were before that point. They have only two injured players, I believe, but they may spell trouble. With Andrews and Musgrave out, their only active TE is Cade Otton.

Strongest Dead Team: Cake or Death (#100791) is the 3rd-strongest team in the contest overall, averaging less than 2 points less than One Giant Loss. Unfortunately, that does not get them cake but instead the other thing, as they died back in week 9.

Keep Your Day Job Award: With 72.45 points this week, Entry #102876, the worst “serious” entry, managed to bring their weekly average down below 90, at 89.76. They also moved from 5th-worst to 4th-worst overall, surrounded by a bunch of goofy teams that could never field a full roster.

Safest Team: We have a new safest team by my usual measure (greatest minimum clearance). ZWK (#103184) has cleared by at least 25.4 points every week. Entry #107349 is just behind at 24.8, and then there’s a gap to everyone else.

One Giant Loss is still the safest teams by average: they’ve cleared by 54.5 points per week. ZWK is right behind at 53.1.

Just Skating By Award: ChentesArmy (#103486) has cleared the cutline by only 16.3 points per week on average: nobody else is under 17. They are also second by my usual measure (least maximum clearance), just behind Entry #109574, who has never cleared the cutline by more than 37.5 points.

Steady Eddie Award: alonegunman (#105693), by scoring within 0.5 of their season average this week, brought their standard deviation back into single digits, at 9.8. Nobody else is under 12. They have always scored between 145 and 177: quite a marksman if you ask me.

Crazy Eddie Award: Surprisingly, the leader here hasn’t changed. Entry #107504 has the highest standard deviation among living teams, at 37.0 almost 4 points higher than anyone else. They’ve scored under 130 three times (but chose good weeks for it) and over 230 twice (every week is a good week for that).

Icarus Award: Chupacabra (#103765) has appeared in this space several times, most recently as the 2nd safest team in the contest. Well, that’s not so much the case anymore, as they scored 149.65 in week 13 and just barely failed to advance. They’re still the 5th strongest team overall and the 3rd strongest dead team.

Woulda Coulda Shoulda Award: Last week, there were 13 teams that were eliminated in week 1 but cleared the cutline every week after. This week, there are just four. Entry #109985, Entry #107812, Entry #103724, Entry #106899 are the last teams remaining with the excruciating knowledge that if they had only survived the first week, they’d be in the thick of things today.
 
Notable Teams:

QBs: We lost the last 6-QB team this week. Of the 111 teams that rostered 5 QBs, 5 remain.

RBs: We lost the last 10-RB team this week. Of the 46 teams that rostered 9 RBs, one, Stlrzfan (#107164) remains.

WRs: No change: Entry #100272 remains the last survivor of the original thirteen 12-WR teams. It’s been that way since week 10.

TEs: No change: Walts Froze Head (#105214), the last of four 7-TE team standing, made it through yet another week. It’s been that way since week 6!

PKs: No change: Entry #102778, the last of 54 5-K teams, remains alive.

DEFs: No change: Amazingly, Entry #102778 is ALSO the last 6-DEF team standing. It helps that they are one of the last 5 surviving teams with a 30 player roster.

Dollars: No change: two remaining teams (out of 45 originally) left enough money and roster spots on the table that they could easily have added someone else with no downside. PurpleJesus (#109361) spent only $245 on their 29 player roster. DMFL Champ (#102562) spend only $247 on their 21 player roster. Either could have added a kicker or defense with no downside.
 
And now the players:

Eliminated Players: We added 14 players to the rolls of the zombies, bringing us to 39 players who are still out there somewhere but not on any living rosters. Spare a thought for Damien Harris, Eddy Pineiro, Jarrett Stidham, Jelani Woods, Ameer Abdullah, DeWayne McBride, Pierre Strong Jr., Marcus Mariota, Chase McLaughlin, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Jacoby Brissett, Ronald Jones, Greg Dulcich, and Matt Gay. And try not to have that thought be, “what took you so long?” Dulcich and Gay are the first eliminated players originally rostered on over 200 teams.

The Biggest Mistake: It kind of has to be Justin Jefferson with his 1069 original rosterers, of whom only 4 remain (0.38% survival rate). But who knows, maybe those 4 teams will get the last laugh starting next week. But no other 1000-roster player is under 1% survival rate, including Nick Chubb, who is the next-lowest at 1.2%.

The Survivor: (See The Parasite below for the real leader in this category.) Nobody has a 10% survival rate anymore. Puka Nacua (8.7%) and Kyren Williams (8.0%) are the only players rostered by 100 teams or more who are over 8%. Jake Ferguson, rostered by over 1400 teams, is right behind them at 7.9%. I believe this is his first appearance in this category.

The Bargain: Nacua, at $3, has to be the guy. Tank Dell is the $3 player with the next-highest survival rate, but his owners may find it tough sledding next week. Or you could have picked…

The Parasite: Okay, I love this. Elliott Fry has not been on an NFL roster all season. Obviously, he has scored zero points for the teams that rostered him. And yet one of those 11 teams is still alive, for a 9.1% survival rate, which is the SINGLE HIGHEST SURVIVAL RATE FOR ANY PLAYER IN THE CONTEST. If that’s not a parasite, I don’t know what is. Hats off to Entry #100842 for having the wisdom to roster him.
 
No ties this week affected the UNOFFICIAL cut after each week (barring future ties):

Start 9966
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 8971
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 8077
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 7271
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 5817
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 4657
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 3726
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 2981
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2087
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1462
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1024
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 717
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 502
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 302
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
 
Week 13 started with 9 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @TrishaRita @bamabuddha @a_troll00

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @ZWK @scottybo @Balco
Page 9 - @firstseason1988
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK)

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @ZWK with 202.50 points (for the 2nd time in a row). Congrats on 21st place this week!
- Our lowest survivor was @(HULK) with 160.35 points.
- The overall contest survival rate is 3.02%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 15.38%.

Bring on week 14. Just hang in there for one more week and collect the bucks! We are all pulling for you.
 
Dacomish said:
No ties this week affected the UNOFFICIAL cut after each week (barring future ties):

Start 9966
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 8971
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 8077
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 7271
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 5817
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 4657
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 3726
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 2981
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2087
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1462
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1024
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 717
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 502
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 302
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
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Right, so the cutline is really only around 25% this week. Yeah, those 43 teams can’t win one of the seven cash prizes, but even the finalists have less than a 4% chance of that.
 
jdkapow said:
Dacomish said:
No ties this week affected the UNOFFICIAL cut after each week (barring future ties):

Start 9966
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 8971
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 8077
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 7271
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 5817
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 4657
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 3726
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 2981
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2087
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1462
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1024
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 717
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 502
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 302
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 182 (means the top 43 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)

From Contest Rules: * - if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
Click to expand...
Right, so the cutline is really only around 25% this week. Yeah, those 43 teams can’t win one of the seven cash prizes, but even the finalists have less than a 4% chance of that.
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One way to look at it, just a fun idea that even if you get cut next week but are among the 43 highest cuts you still get a subscription based on what's in the rules. Last year I think we only had 1 non-finalist qualify..
 
TheWinz said:
Week 13 started with 9 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @TrishaRita @bamabuddha @a_troll00

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @ZWK @scottybo @Balco
Page 9 - @firstseason1988
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK)

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @ZWK with 202.50 points (for the 2nd time in a row). Congrats on 21st place this week!
- Our lowest survivor was @(HULK) with 160.35 points.
- The overall contest survival rate is 3.02%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 15.38%.

Bring on week 14. Just hang in there for one more week and collect the bucks! We are all pulling for you.
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Thanks for tracking this @TheWinz

For clarification purposes before we hit the moment when week 14 ends, is Joe’s deal based on getting to the final 183 or making the top 250? His response early on in this thread stated $100 to the top 250 I believe but I didn’t know if this was on the assumption that 250 teams would qualify for the week 15-17 championship.

@Joe Bryant No issues with whatever your intentions were as I’m greatly appreciative of you putting in the free subscriber contest and then additionally adding the bonus $100 game. Things can get messy if any potential winners of the bonus money have a different understanding. I feel it’s best to get clarity now rather than on Tuesday.
 
BroncosFan07 said:
TheWinz said:
Week 13 started with 9 folks still eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Today we mourn the loss of @TrishaRita @bamabuddha @a_troll00

Let's congratulate the following for advancing:
Page 10 - @ZWK @scottybo @Balco
Page 9 - @firstseason1988
Page 8 - @BroncosFan07 @(HULK)

Of note
- Our highest score of the week was @ZWK with 202.50 points (for the 2nd time in a row). Congrats on 21st place this week!
- Our lowest survivor was @(HULK) with 160.35 points.
- The overall contest survival rate is 3.02%. For Joe's extra bucks, the survival rate is 15.38%.

Bring on week 14. Just hang in there for one more week and collect the bucks! We are all pulling for you.
Click to expand...
Thanks for tracking this @TheWinz

For clarification purposes before we hit the moment when week 14 ends, is Joe’s deal based on getting to the final 183 or making the top 250? His response early on in this thread stated $100 to the top 250 I believe but I didn’t know if this was on the assumption that 250 teams would qualify for the week 15-17 championship.

@Joe Bryant No issues with whatever your intentions were as I’m greatly appreciative of you putting in the free subscriber contest and then additionally adding the bonus $100 game. Things can get messy if any potential winners of the bonus money have a different understanding. I feel it’s best to get clarity now rather than on Tuesday.
Click to expand...

I defer to @TheWinz on interpretation. I can't remember now how we set it up.
 
Close Calls: Rooster 107318 (sadamson5) survived thanks to McPherson's FG on the last play of MNF. Rooster 103430 survived courtesy of Ja'Marr Chase's 11th catch on his 12th target of the night a few plays earlier.

Heartbreakers: Chase's lone target that he didn't catch last night was a drop right in his hands, and would have allowed Rooster 104677 to advance (that or 6 more yards). And the cut lion leaped ahead and caught Rooster 101385 on that McPherson FG... after 13 weeks he was eaten by a difference of 1 passing yard.

Faceplants: There was Chupacabra (as jdk noted on Icarus Award). Rooster 108555 (NutFlush) averaged better than 185 the past 3 weeks before posting a 91.6 this week, in part thanks to $34 on bye. Rooster 108917 had been averaging over 174 the past 3 weeks before posting a 87.1 this week, but unlike NutFlush the poor performance can't be blamed on bye week players. And Rooster 103706 had evaded the lion by a minimum of 28.75 per week (average 47) before falling prey this week.

Luck Ran Out: Rooster 104569 (KikoNation) and Rooster 105988 (GothamEvilEmpire) were Playing With Fire last week, and this week their Luck Ran Out. In addition, Rooster 103695 had been surviving by an average of 12.1 the past 8 weeks, and Rooster 102107 had been surviving by 8.3 the past 5 weeks... both fed the lion this week.

Playing With Fire: Rooster 103486 (ChentesArmy) now holds the smallest average weekly clearance with 16.3. Along with Rooster 101228 (Lostboyz), they are the only two remaining to have never broken the 175 point weekly threshold. Rooster 103805 has escaped the lion by 5 points COMBINED the past 3 weeks, and Rooster 107902 (GO IRISH13) hasn't cleared by double-digits in 4 straight weeks, and Rooster 103028 (Pingman) has cleared by an average of less than 5.2 for the past 6 weeks. The Rotisserie has been warmed up for this crew... but only one more week to go.

Most Improved: Rooster 100491 (Fatheadkts) had a rough go of it from weeks 4 through 9 averaging less than 147 per week, but has topped 177 points for the 4 weeks running since. Previous most improved Rooster 103725 nearly hit 200 this week, and Rooster 109158 had another decent showing at 170.
 
Some expectedly strong survivors:
$36 Ja'Marr Chase - 31.55 points, 11 of 13 survived (85%)
$26 Devonta Smith - 48.05 points, 14 of 15 survived (93%)
$24 Deebo Samuel - 35.8 points, 11 of 11 survived (100%)
$24 DK Metcalf - 37.4 points, 11 of 13 survived (85%)
$16 Mike Evans - 29.2 points, 17 of 21 survived (81%)
$6 Jake Ferguson - 22.7 points, 116 of 147 survived (79%)

Some unexpectedly strong survivors:
$17 Mike Williams - 0 points, 11 of 12 survived (92%)
$16 Daniel Jones - 0 points, 19 of 24 survived (79%)
$6 Michael Mayer - 0 points, 14 of 18 survived (78%)
$6 Cade Otton - 0 points, 14 of 20 survived (70%)
$5 Cincinatti Bengals - 4 points, 6 of 7 survived (86%)

Low survival, relatively widely owned (35+ to start the week):
$18 James Cook - 0 points, 81 of 168 survived (48%)
$19 Kenneth Walker III - 0 points, 20 of 47 survived (43%)
$24 T.J. Hockenson - 0 points, 18 of 40 survived (45%)
$25 Josh Allen - 0 points, 15 of 40 survived (38%)
$14 David Njoku - 4.7 points, 11 of 36 survived (31%)

Also notable was $30 Derrick Henry had a solid game with 24.5 points, but only 1 of 5 survived (20%). Also found it interesting two players both with 56% survival rates this week (which is just below average in a 60% team survival week)... $25 Jalen Hurts put up 28.9 points which is a strong score, but also kind of what you are expecting from a top QB (18 of 40 survived)... and $3 Tank Dell unfortunately got injured and had 0 points but 77 of 137 survived, likely because he didn't tie up a lot of cap $ so his performance this year has been a bonus, perhaps helping cover for injuries at other spots (Chubb, Jefferson, Dobbins, Mike Williams, and on and on) but also not as big of an impact to his owners now that he's out (vs. injuries to those bigger-name players).

LaPorta leapfrogged Howell, Dotson, and Flowers and is now the most widely-owned player (not just "post-bye"), followed by Kamara, Ferguson, Mostert, Flowers, Kincaid, and Jordan Love as the post-bye players on over 100 Roosters.

Most widely owned with week 14 bye remains the same: Howell and Dotson over 100, then a big dropoff to WAS D, Michael Wilson, Brian Robinson Jr., and... Michael Badgley (who remains on 28 Roosters).

Personally, my "least widely owned" players remain as Austin Ekeler (6 remaining) and Ja'Marr Chase (11 remaining), with the low-performing Isaiah Hodgins now vying for the title (13 remaining).
 
Week 14 Dead Money
Injured/Benched/Low-Scorers/Bye+ Mostly Dead
<=$20
8%
3%
$21-$40
29%
16%
$41-$60
37%
30%
$61-$80
19%
28%
$81-$100
5%
17%
>$100
1%
7%

Monitoring (but currently included as active players)
Tyler Higbee
D'Andre Swift
D'Onta Foreman

Including the Mostly Dead, the average for remaining teams is $63, with 40% at $70 or above. I'm at $49.

If I make it through to playoffs, my 3 concerns are as follows:
  • The Herbert/Ekeler connection gets ignited... This week was abysmal, but so was the weather. Willing to give them a mulligan.
  • I get some more TE help from Waller and/or Musgrave returning.... not sure Waller will be back for week 14, but hopefully by the playoffs? Musgrave is week 16 is at best, but I suspect he'll need more time, alas.
  • Browning is good enough to let Chase shine... Removed, as this one is is no longer a concern after this week. There's no guarantee of course, but clearly Browning is good enough that the potential for Chase to shine is there.
  • Replacement concern: That the widely-owned players who I don't have on my squad (LaPorta, Howell, Mostert, Flowers, etc.) have high-scoring games, thus leaving me behind
 
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Breaking down my roster in terms of marginal points per dollar-- how many extra points a player got me vs. if I'd just left his box unchecked and didn't spend that money elsewhere. (I know marginal points isn't the best measure, but I was curious about opportunity costs.)

0.5 points per dollar-- Anthony Richardson (7.45 points, $15). Counted once in a week I cleared by 45.
5.9 ppd-- Brock Purdy (70.3 points, $12). Counted six times, though none were season-savers.
6.2 ppd-- Jordan Love (55.75 points, $9). Counted six times, though none were season-savers.
(Glitch in the Matrix: in Weeks 2 and 3 Love scored 27.85 and the rest of my roster combined scored 172.70, leading to back-to-back scores of 200.55.)

1.6 ppd-- James Conner (32 points, $20). Counted six times, none were season-savers.
5.9 ppd-- Alvin Kamara (88.5 points, $15). Counted nine times (every week he's played), including one season-saver (added 15.7, cleared by 6.6).
10.9 ppd-- Raheem Mostert (109 points, $10). Counted eight times, but none were season-savers.
0.4 ppd-- Matt Breida (1.6 points, $4). Counted once. Wanted to bet on a Barkley injury, but forgot Breida and the Giants suck.
20.5 ppd-- Kyren Williams (81.9 points, $4). Counted six times, none were season-savers.
12.3 ppd-- Zach Moss (49.1 points, $4). Counted five times, none were season-savers. Super cheap bet on the Taylor holdout running long with handcuff potential beyond that.
(My top pick underwhelmed, but the other five-- sans Breida-- have been monsters.)

2.5 ppd-- Chris Olave (67.5 points, $27). Counted nine times, none were season-savers.
2.0 ppd-- Tyler Lockett (38.6 points, $19). Counted six times, none were season-savers.
2.2 ppd-- Jahan Dotson (30.3 points, $14). Counted five times, none were season-savers.
0.0 ppd-- Rashod Bateman (0 points, $11). Urgh.
0.6 ppd-- Elijah Moore (7 points, $11). Counted SIX TIMES, added <1 marginal point in five of them and a whopping +3.2 in the sixth. (Ralph Wiggum "I'm Helping" gif.)
0.5 ppd-- Marvin Mims (3.7 points, $8). Reverse Elijah Moore. Posted 20.3 points in Week 2. That's... pretty much it.
3.6 ppd-- Jayden Reed (24.9 points, $7). Counted five times, none were season-savers.
0.0 ppd-- Justyn Ross (0 points, $5). Still a better pick than Rashod Bateman.
(By far my worst unit, really no good picks in the group, which is disgusting with $102 spent. I've only flexed six receivers all year. Woooooof.)

4.4 ppd-- Dalton Kincaid (43.9 points, $10). Counted zero times in the first six weeks, then six times in the next six, including one season-saver in Week 7.
9.9 ppd-- Sam LaPorta (88.7 points, $9). Counted ten times (most of anyone), but none were season-savers.
7.3 ppd-- Jake Ferguson (43.6 points, $6). Counted four times, no season-savers.
2.8 ppd-- Luke Musgrave (16.8 points, $6). Counted four times, no season-savers.
(Incredible value: I've used at least one flex at TE in 9 of 13 weeks, including two weeks were both of my flexes were TEs and three weeks where a TE was my top-scoring non-flex. All for $31.)

6.1 ppd-- Jake Elliott (30.3 points, $5). Counted seven times, but none were season-savers.
6.9 ppd-- Greg Zuerlein (27.6 points, $4). Thought the Rodgers injury would sink him, but he's been okay. Counted four times, no season-savers.
6.0 ppd-- Wil Lutz (24.0 points, $4). Has only counted twice all year. Saved my season both times (+8.9 when I cleared by 6.6, +15.1 when I cleared by 12.25). My official mascot.
Overall, the unit gave me 14.5ppg for $13.

7.1 ppd-- Dallas Defense (50 points, $7). Counted six times, no season-savers.
4.5 ppd-- Denver Defense (18 points, $4). Counted seven times, only added 5, 4, 3, 2, 2, 1, and 1 points, no season-savers.
Overall, the unit gave me 10.3ppg for $11.

Positional comparison:
RB -- $57 spent on 6 players, 18.6 points per start, nine flexes all year.
WR -- $102 spent on 8 players, 15.8 points per start, six flexes all year.
TE -- $31 spent on 4 players, 17.7 points per start, eleven flexes all year.

QB -- $36 spent, 29.5 ppg
PK -- $13 spent, 14.5 ppg
Def -- $11 spent, 10.3 ppg

Value picks (3+ points per dollar):
20.5 -- Kyren Williams
12.3 -- Zach Moss
10.9 -- Raheem Mostert
9.9 -- Sam LaPorta
7.3 -- Jake Ferguson
6.2 -- Jordan Love
5.9 -- Alvin Kamara
5.9 -- Brock Purdy
4.4 -- Dalton Kincaid
3.6 -- Jayden Reed

Workhorses (40+ points added):
109.0 -- Raheem Mostert
88.7 -- Sam LaPorta
88.5 -- Alvin Kamara
81.9 -- Kyren Williams
70.3 -- Brock Purdy
67.5 -- Chris Olave
55.8 -- Jordan Love
43.9 -- Dalton Kincaid
43.6 -- Jake Ferguson

Guardian Angels (times they saved me from the Cut Lion):
2 -- Wil Lutz (for $4)
1 -- Dalton Kincaid (for $10)
1 -- Alvin Kamara (for $15)

Taking up Space (<1 point per dollar):
$15 -- Anthony Richardson
$11 -- Rashod Bateman
$11 -- Elijah Moore
$8 -- Marvin Mims
$5 -- Justyn Ross
$4 -- Matt Breida
If I simply unchecked all of those boxes, I would have scored 19.75 fewer points over the season, not had to sweat any cut lions more than I already did, and had $54 extra dollars to spend. (He hasn't been total dead weight, but I could also cut Conner; this would cost me another 36.3 points, leave me counting a 0.3 and a 0 at RB in two weeks, and drop me to just 2.05 points above the Week 11 cut lion, but would free up another $20. I think if I really wanted to cut to the bone I'd still be alive if I cut Jordan Love, Luke Musgrave, Greg Zuerlein, and Denver's Defense, too, which would shave another $23, leaving me at $153 spent and 15 players rostered.)
 
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