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Week 14 who should I start thread **OFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Chaka

Footballguy
This week I have tough calls at RB, need 3 of the following in PPR. Good deep group but a lot of question marks, bold and underlined is who I currently have loaded

Montgomery- my only lock but injury concerns this week

A. Jones- why the hell have the Packers stopped throwing him the ball, very perplexed

Dillon- was the lead back last game, I have a hunch this will be a Jones week

Hunt-  the Ravens have given up the fewest RB FF points per week from week 10-13, 10.45 avg team RB points.  Hunt only had 2 ppr points vs Ravens week 12

Jamaal Williams- .lead dog, only 2 catches last week is a concern

Foreman- great matchup, will he get the majority of touches and enough receptions

**Bonus** A. Abdullah- I will not start him this week but I think starting this week he will score more than Hubbard in PPR
You have some talent at RB for sure but you have a lot of issues.

Montgomery showed up on the injury report with three separate injuries 🤕 and he has a very unfavorable matchup. Monitor the practice report on him, you can't bench a guy who just got 30 opportunities...right?

It's hard to rely on Jones after last week & with Dillon clearly one of the hottest hands in the league ATM. But I think, with the bye you have to believe he will be back, if not in a true lead role at least as a receiver and goal line guy. I personally think he will get at least 50% of RB opportunities in a great matchup.

Hunt is in the same boat as Jones. Cleveland also, technically is facing the best rush D in the league. I personally think that stat is a bit of a mirage. Baltimore scores a lot and their secondary is terrible so teams pass more against them.

Even if Swift is out and Jamal being in line for 17+ touches, it's a tough road matchup in Denver and I don't think he's that good.

Foreman may not be that good but he has the fewest question marks of any of your RBs.  I know Hilliard is getting all the love in fantasy circles but Foreman went 19-108 with a reception. He was the lead back throughout the tough game v the Patriots. IMO he's in line for the majority of touches and has the best matchup of all your options...but can you start him?

Jones>>Montgomery>Foreman>Williams>Hunt

 
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Chaka

Footballguy
Have several tough decisions as I fight for the # 2 seed (and bye) in my 12 team, 0.5 point PPR league. 

1) I have both Henderson and Sony. Hoping for a little clarity but if both are playing I feel like I have to go with Sony...

2) Do I dare start Rashaad Penny as my flex ? Great match-up against the Texans but there are seemingly a lot of RB mouths to feed in Seattle. My other choices are McKissic (obviously he has to clear concussion protocol first), Zach Ertz (seems like he did better with Kyler and DHop on the shelf), or Josh Reynolds (a Lions WR is a scary thought in a week 14 match-up).

3) Whoever I don't choose between Ertz and Reynolds, I need to choose as my WR3 (TE counts as WR in my league). I do have injured Waller as well but that does not look like it is happening this week.

4) Last but not least, my defense. I have the Browns, who have a great match-up on paper against the Ravens but I am not sure lightning will strike twice, or the red-hot Chiefs against the Raiders. 

Appreciate any thoughts, suggestions, etc... Thanks !
1) I can't offer any clarity on Henderson v Michel. If both are full speed and, as far as we know they are, I think Henderson is the right call. Michel received 23% of his season total of 120 opportunities last week. It appears the Rams decided to give Henderson an additional week to heal even though he was apparently able to play. It's tough to discount Michel after what he did but I think Henderson has done nothing to lose the job and is still the favored RB.

2) I am in a similar situation deciding between Foreman & Penny this week and I'm going with Foreman. I think, despite the great matchup, if McKissic plays you should play him. He's done enough to warrant it and Penny hasn't, even if we all think this could be the week Penny seizes the job RoS. If Collins is a game day inactive I could see pivoting if you really think you need a home run but McKissic has a better floor and some solid upside as well.

3) Ertz>Reynolds because...reasons.

4) Why are the Ravens a great matchup? Chiefs>>>Browns

 

themeistersinger

Footballguy
Full PPR.  I've got guys that are normally backups that might or might not be good starts.  Start 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 Flex.

Definite starts
WR/TE Justin Jefferson vs Steelers - Thursday
WR/TE Tyler Lockett at Texans

Everybody else
RB Alexander Mattison vs Steelers - Thursday
RB Sony Michel at Cardinals - Monday
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs Raiders 
RB Kareem Hunt vs Ravens
RB A.J. Dillon vs Bears
WR/TE Jerry Jeudy vs Lions
WR/TE Kyle Pitts at Panthers
WR/TE Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs Bears

So of course I've got to deal with guys playing Thursday or Monday, and uncertainties about player statuses.

Alexander Mattison (Thursday night) would be an auto-start, but now they're saying Dalvin Cook is likely to play tonight.  So a few possibilities: 
1. Dalvin Cook is inactive - then start Mattison.  
2. Dalvin Cook is active, but just an emergency backup - then start Mattison.
3. Dalvin Cook is active, and starts and is supposed to be the lead back, but gets hurt early so yields to Mattison - then I wish I had started Mattison.
4. Dalvin Cook is active, and starts and dominates touches - then I wish I had benched Mattison.

Sony Michel (Monday night) would also be an auto-start if Henderson is out, but who knows what's happening there.  Same list of possibilities:
1. Darrel Henderson is inactive - then start Michel.
2. Darrel Henderson is active, but just an emergency backup - then start Michel.
3. Darrel Henderson is active, and starts and is supposed to be the lead back, but gets hurt early so yields to Michel - then I wish I had started Michel.
4. Darrel Henderson is active, and starts and dominates touches - then I wish I had benched Michel.

CEH is probably going to be starting in one spot for me.  Kareem Hunt will probably be the backup to Chubb, but could get more passing game work with no OBJ to take targets, Jarvis Landry is banged up, Njoku is on Covid list, etc.  Dillon has been getting more carries than Aaron Jones the past few weeks, so while Jones is still the lead back, Dillon is almost a 1B to Jones 1A, not a backup.  And if Packers get a big lead then Dillon could be the closer for this game.

I do hate Thursday Night Football, always have, always will.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
.5 PPR 

Renfrow @ KC 

Aiyuk @ CIN

.5 PPR

In a must win game and in light of the Dalvin news, in a bit of a pickle

gotta start 2 RB and 1 flex

have both

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon

Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison

Before the Dalvin news that he looks like he’ll play I had jones, Dillon and Mattison in pretty comfortably. Now I’m unsure if I should start cook, Mattison, or pivot to dalton schultz? It’s a TE premium league(1ppr)

Really thought they’d give Dalvin another week 
1) Aiyuk has been playing better but even since week 8 when Aiyuk finally started getting consistent targets, Renfrow has still outperformed him (even playing one less game in that time).  Aiyuk averages 4.3 receptions for 65.2 yards on 6.3 targets/game with 0.33 TD/game.  Renfrow averages 7 catches for 72.1 yards on 8.2 targets/game with 0.4 TD/game.  Renfrow's 85% catch rate over the last five is stupid good, his rate on the season is 79% Carr loves Renfrow and they absolutely have a rapport.

I like Aiyuk's talent but Renfrow is money.

Renfrow>Aiyuk

2) I agree with Jones/Dillon (although stacking RBs on the same team is tough, it makes sense in this matchup).

It's a must win game for Minnesota (for Pittsburgh too).  My gut tells me Dalvin should be more of a decoy but Zimmer doesn't really have a history of using decoys.  He beats the #### out of his starting RBs.  Obviously there is the possibility Cook is a late scratch, which makes your life easier. I wish I had a better read on this situation but I really don't. Timeshare just doesn't seem to be Zimmer's M.O. but an early exit from Cook seems so possible it's tough to recommend starting him.  Cook hanging in the entire game, to me, seems like a lesser possibility so between the two I maybe, slightly lean Mattison by just a tinge. But really I have no idea.

I can absolutely see rolling with Schultz if Cook plays but, again I am not comfortable recommending it.

Pray for a late scratch and if it doesn't happen flip a coin.  Sorry. :shrug:

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Full PPR.  I've got guys that are normally backups that might or might not be good starts.  Start 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, 1 Flex.

Definite starts
WR/TE Justin Jefferson vs Steelers - Thursday
WR/TE Tyler Lockett at Texans

Everybody else
RB Alexander Mattison vs Steelers - Thursday
RB Sony Michel at Cardinals - Monday
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs Raiders 
RB Kareem Hunt vs Ravens
RB A.J. Dillon vs Bears
WR/TE Jerry Jeudy vs Lions
WR/TE Kyle Pitts at Panthers
WR/TE Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs Bears

So of course I've got to deal with guys playing Thursday or Monday, and uncertainties about player statuses.

Alexander Mattison (Thursday night) would be an auto-start, but now they're saying Dalvin Cook is likely to play tonight.  So a few possibilities: 
1. Dalvin Cook is inactive - then start Mattison.  
2. Dalvin Cook is active, but just an emergency backup - then start Mattison.
3. Dalvin Cook is active, and starts and is supposed to be the lead back, but gets hurt early so yields to Mattison - then I wish I had started Mattison.
4. Dalvin Cook is active, and starts and dominates touches - then I wish I had benched Mattison.

Sony Michel (Monday night) would also be an auto-start if Henderson is out, but who knows what's happening there.  Same list of possibilities:
1. Darrel Henderson is inactive - then start Michel.
2. Darrel Henderson is active, but just an emergency backup - then start Michel.
3. Darrel Henderson is active, and starts and is supposed to be the lead back, but gets hurt early so yields to Michel - then I wish I had started Michel.
4. Darrel Henderson is active, and starts and dominates touches - then I wish I had benched Michel.

CEH is probably going to be starting in one spot for me.  Kareem Hunt will probably be the backup to Chubb, but could get more passing game work with no OBJ to take targets, Jarvis Landry is banged up, Njoku is on Covid list, etc.  Dillon has been getting more carries than Aaron Jones the past few weeks, so while Jones is still the lead back, Dillon is almost a 1B to Jones 1A, not a backup.  And if Packers get a big lead then Dillon could be the closer for this game.

I do hate Thursday Night Football, always have, always will.
Nice roster dump.  So if I am reading you correct you are looking for 2 RBs, 1 WR/TE and 1 flex out that list?

RB: Dillon>CEH>Mattison if Cook is out<>Hunt if Cook is in

I don't believe Henderson will be inactive, I believe he could have played last week and the Rams decided to give him extra rest in a game they knew they should win.  Michel performed excellent but Henderson has done nothing to lose his job. If Henderson starts I think he resumes getting the majority of touches.

I probably lean Pitts for your WR/TE only because he seems to get very consistent targets but, he's been pretty much a disappointment while getting #1 receiver attention from defenses.

MVS I probably like next, and can easily make the argument for him over Pitts.  It's really close between but Pitts has the longer track record of consistent targets.  Plus I think Jones/Dillon will likely control this game.

Pitts>MVS

 

Chaka

Footballguy
KJ Osborne vs a “healthy” Julio? .5 ppr
Considering how little we have to go on from both of these guys in 2021 I think I like Osborn.  He's in line for 8 or so targets and has Jefferson and the running backs to keep the attention of defenses.  I see him in a similar situation to Russell Gage, quietly getting the volume and doing well with it.

I just have no idea what to expect from Julio and I refuse to just plug him in because his name is Julio Jones.

Osborn>Julio

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Carr or Cousins ?  Hubbard or Jamal Williams ?
Love Carr but he hasn't thrown more than two TDs in a game all year. He averages 1.4 TD/game, Cousins averages 2.1 that's a big difference. Carr averages 26 yards per game more than Cousins which, in most leagues amounts to about 0.5 points.  It isn't enough.

Cousins>Carr

I don't like either of your RBs but watching how Campbell uses his RBs, Jamal Williams is the clear choice IF Swift is out.  If Swift plays I worry that Williams becomes an after thought again which means Hubbard is probably the better choice.

 

kyoun1e

Footballguy
Defense question. Who would you drop of these 4 defenses for weeks 16 and 17?

* KC - PIT, @CINCI -- After watching Big Ben last night in the first half, was thinking KC in week 16 would be money. Burrow taking a lot of sacks as well.

* SEA - CHI, DET -- Good matchups, but not a great D situation. CHI probably a better matchup if Dalton playing. 

* MIA - @NO, @TN - Decent not great matchups. T. Hill can turn it over, but NO at home and Kamara will be back. TN at home probably not playable.

* TB - @CAR, @NYJ -- Maybe the best two matchups of the bunch. I'm guessing this is possibly my #1 D here.

Which one would you drop?

Also would be curious of the ranking 1 - 4.

Thanks!

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Zeke

A Jones

Jamaal Williams 

Jeff Wilson

Sanders and Stephenson, Both on Byes and both could be big next week. 

15-man limit rosters, I have 6 spots going RB, trying to hoard all of them

Pick 2, can also Flex a 3rd over Higgins and Aiyuk.  

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
W/R/T Flex

Sutton  :X  

or

CarterHockensonMckissicPollardSwift (all hurt) or K Herbert

Sutton it is!

WW:

Tre’quan

Mecole

Westbrook-Ikhine

Peoples-Jones

David Johnson 

Josh Reynolds

Jeff Wilson

Lazard

Jared Cook

Bateman

:shrug:

 
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Loipz

Footballguy
W/R/T Flex

Sutton  :X  

or

CarterHockensonMckissicPollardSwift (all hurt) or K Herbert

Sutton it is!

WW:

Tre’quan

Mecole

Westbrook-Ikhine

Peoples-Jones

David Johnson 

Josh Reynolds

Jeff Wilson

Lazard

Jared Cook

Bateman

:shrug:
Jeff Wilson with Elijah Mitchell looking like he’ll miss. 

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Defense question. Who would you drop of these 4 defenses for weeks 16 and 17?

* KC - PIT, @CINCI -- After watching Big Ben last night in the first half, was thinking KC in week 16 would be money. Burrow taking a lot of sacks as well.

* SEA - CHI, DET -- Good matchups, but not a great D situation. CHI probably a better matchup if Dalton playing. 

* MIA - @NO, @TN - Decent not great matchups. T. Hill can turn it over, but NO at home and Kamara will be back. TN at home probably not playable.

* TB - @CAR, @NYJ -- Maybe the best two matchups of the bunch. I'm guessing this is possibly my #1 D here.

Which one would you drop?

Also would be curious of the ranking 1 - 4.

Thanks!
I feel like I have been to this rodeo before.

 
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Chaka

Footballguy
Zeke

A Jones

Jamaal Williams 

Jeff Wilson

Sanders and Stephenson, Both on Byes and both could be big next week. 

15-man limit rosters, I have 6 spots going RB, trying to hoard all of them

Pick 2, can also Flex a 3rd over Higgins and Aiyuk.  
I think Jamal Williams went on the Covid 19 list.

Either way I like Aaron Jones & Zeke over the other two.  Wilson's got a gimpy knee and I am not sure he doesn't split time with Hasty.  I don't think I would even flex him over Higgins & Aiyuk.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
W/R/T Flex

Sutton  :X  

or

CarterHockensonMckissicPollardSwift (all hurt) or K Herbert

Sutton it is!

WW:

Tre’quan

Mecole

Westbrook-Ikhine

Peoples-Jones

David Johnson 

Josh Reynolds

Jeff Wilson

Lazard

Jared Cook

Bateman

:shrug:
PPR or standard scoring? That's important.

If it's PPR I go with McKissic above all the other options.  In standard I think Peoples-Jones has a real opportunity to break one off against Baltimore's extremely depleted secondary.

Sutton is a hell of a physical specimen but, shockingly there are too many weapons in Denver and they don't have a QB who is talented enough to exploit them.  He hurts you more often than he helps you.  How many bad games does one suffer in the hopes that this is the week he finally goes off?  Maybe it is this week but if you're that desperate for the home run I still like Peoples-Jones more. 

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Can't get a read on Guyton or josh Palmer as a half ppr flex 
As a pure numbers play Guyton has 11 more targets on the season than Palmer.  The good news is it looks like Mike Williams is trending towards playing which means whichever one of these guys is the "correct" play will have a great opportunity.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
12-team PPR, trying to lock down a bye. I have a couple WDIS questions and one potential WDID.

QB: Russ vs Houston or Taysom vs NYJ? I think they're close and there's probably no "right" answer, but leaning Taysom because it's really hard to believe he doesn't put up good rushing numbers against that defense.

TE: Need a last-minute Hock replacement (I have 'Muth, and if I had had any idea Hock was going to miss this week, I would have just played him last night. So now I have to pick up a third TE. 2021, y'all!) Anyway, options are RSJ, Moreau and Everett. Leaning RSJ.

Flex: If Deebo plays he's in. If he doesn't I have to choose between Freeman, Edmonds (assuming he's activated) or Michel. As of now, leaning Freeman, but I'll wait to hear what the Rams are saying about Henderson. Arizona run D is no Jax, but if Sony has the job to himself again I think he could be a good play.

WDID: Here's where it gets a little complicated. Heading into this week I had Deebo and Edmonds in my two IR slots. When Jamaal was put on the Covid list I swapped out him and Deebo. But eventually I'm going to need to drop him to pick up a TE. If two of Hock, Edmonds or Deebo remain out this week, I just use my IR slots on those two, drop Jamaal, and pick up my TE. If Hock and one of the other two both play then I drop the TE. But if Hock sits and Deebo/Edmonds play (which seems to be the most likely scenario right now) I have to choose between dropping Freeman, Michel, DParker or Freiermuth from my roster. I'd be a little wary about dropping my backup TE while my starter is still out. I'd like to hold onto Parker as a potential playoff breakout. So I think the answer is probably Freeman because he has the lowest ceiling. But who knows what will happen with Michel ROS?

 

Chaka

Footballguy
lol

You have!
Deep breaths my friend. No amount of analysis will get you to the "correct" decision. You just gotta pick the one you believe in and run with it.

Personally I think KC looks like they may finally be rolling and I believe I said that last time, but I don't recall TB being on your list last time.

TB's the obvious answer IMO.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
12-team PPR, trying to lock down a bye. I have a couple WDIS questions and one potential WDID.

QB: Russ vs Houston or Taysom vs NYJ? I think they're close and there's probably no "right" answer, but leaning Taysom because it's really hard to believe he doesn't put up good rushing numbers against that defense.

TE: Need a last-minute Hock replacement (I have 'Muth, and if I had had any idea Hock was going to miss this week, I would have just played him last night. So now I have to pick up a third TE. 2021, y'all!) Anyway, options are RSJ, Moreau and Everett. Leaning RSJ.

Flex: If Deebo plays he's in. If he doesn't I have to choose between Freeman, Edmonds (assuming he's activated) or Michel. As of now, leaning Freeman, but I'll wait to hear what the Rams are saying about Henderson. Arizona run D is no Jax, but if Sony has the job to himself again I think he could be a good play.

WDID: Here's where it gets a little complicated. Heading into this week I had Deebo and Edmonds in my two IR slots. When Jamaal was put on the Covid list I swapped out him and Deebo. But eventually I'm going to need to drop him to pick up a TE. If two of Hock, Edmonds or Deebo remain out this week, I just use my IR slots on those two, drop Jamaal, and pick up my TE. If Hock and one of the other two both play then I drop the TE. But if Hock sits and Deebo/Edmonds play (which seems to be the most likely scenario right now) I have to choose between dropping Freeman, Michel, DParker or Freiermuth from my roster. I'd be a little wary about dropping my backup TE while my starter is still out. I'd like to hold onto Parker as a potential playoff breakout. So I think the answer is probably Freeman because he has the lowest ceiling. But who knows what will happen with Michel ROS?
Taysom makes sense to me. Kid can run and should be more involved while Wilson may be able to lean on the running game a little more.

Despite a bad week against WFT I like Moreau over the other two. He's in a better position to receive volume.

Agree with you vis-a-vis Michel, Freeman & Edmonds but I can make the argument for Edmonds. It's just that Arizona is a tough offense to predict. At least we can be reasonably confident Freeman will get goal line carries in Baltimore.

I don't really have an opinion about your IR issue. Lots of moving parts. Unless Swift is declared out RoS I don't think Jamal Williams is worth losing too much sleep over.

 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I don't really have an opinion about your IR issue. Lots of moving parts. Unless Swift is declared out RoS I don't think Jamal Williams is worth losing too much sleep over.
Thanks. I realized after I posted it that it was one of those situations where it was less about getting feedback and more about sorting it all out in my own mind. But to clarify one point, I'm definitely going to have to drop Williams. The only question is whether I'll be forced to drop an additional player, and if I am, the choice will be between Freeman, Freiermuth Parker or Michel.

 

dmac37

Footballguy
You have some talent at RB for sure but you have a lot of issues.

Montgomery showed up on the injury report with three separate injuries 🤕 and he has a very unfavorable matchup. Monitor the practice report on him, you can't bench a guy who just got 30 opportunities...right?

It's hard to rely on Jones after last week & with Dillon clearly one of the hottest hands in the league ATM. But I think, with the bye you have to believe he will be back, if not in a true lead role at least as a receiver and goal line guy. I personally think he will get at least 50% of RB opportunities in a great matchup.

Hunt is in the same boat as Jones. Cleveland also, technically is facing the best rush D in the league. I personally think that stat is a bit of a mirage. Baltimore scores a lot and their secondary is terrible so teams pass more against them.

Even if Swift is out and Jamal being in line for 17+ touches, it's a tough road matchup in Denver and I don't think he's that good.

Foreman may not be that good but he has the fewest question marks of any of your RBs.  I know Hilliard is getting all the love in fantasy circles but Foreman went 19-108 with a reception. He was the lead back throughout the tough game v the Patriots. IMO he's in line for the majority of touches and has the best matchup of all your options...but can you start him?

Jones>>Montgomery>Foreman>Williams>Hunt
Locked in on Montgomery and A. Jones, tough call for RB3. J. Williams out and Hunt going against a Raven D that is completely shutting out teams RB's FF production leave me with the following in full PPR:

Foreman- best matchup but now looks like all 3 RB's will be active and Foreman most likely getting the fewest receptions but highest chance at TD's

Dillon- already starting  A. Jones and Rodgers, GB has one of the highest team totals. If Rodgers gets all the GB TD's having 2 GB RB's could be a killer

Penny, Abdulla, and Darrel Williams- any of these guys could produce more than the above but can't pull the trigger until there is more body of work on each one.

 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I think Jamal Williams went on the Covid 19 list.

Either way I like Aaron Jones & Zeke over the other two.  Wilson's got a gimpy knee and I am not sure he doesn't split time with Hasty.  I don't think I would even flex him over Higgins & Aiyuk.
Just finding out about Williams, thanks

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Locked in on Montgomery and A. Jones, tough call for RB3. J. Williams out and Hunt going against a Raven D that is completely shutting out teams RB's FF production leave me with the following in full PPR:

Foreman- best matchup but now looks like all 3 RB's will be active and Foreman most likely getting the fewest receptions but highest chance at TD's

Dillon- already starting  A. Jones and Rodgers, GB has one of the highest team totals. If Rodgers gets all the GB TD's having 2 GB RB's could be a killer

Penny, Abdulla, and Darrel Williams- any of these guys could produce more than the above but can't pull the trigger until there is more body of work on each one.
I would consider Penny over Foreman (I am facing that decision myself) but right now Foreman is in my lineup.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Thanks. I realized after I posted it that it was one of those situations where it was less about getting feedback and more about sorting it all out in my own mind. But to clarify one point, I'm definitely going to have to drop Williams. The only question is whether I'll be forced to drop an additional player, and if I am, the choice will be between Freeman, Freiermuth Parker or Michel.
I probably drop Parker in that situation.

And this thread is all about giving a space for people to organize their thoughts.

I often start writing about decisions people are trying to make in here thinking that I will end up recommending one player only to realize I actually think another option is better.

 

sho nuff

Footballguy
My RB2 and Flex spots are all up in the air.

Standard scoring

RB1 already locked in with Aaron Jones.

Need an RB2 and flex out of this:

Javonte Williams (leaning that way for RB2), Saquon Barkley, Tee Higgins (leaning that way for flex), Rashaad Penny (could pick up Jeff Wilson as well).

 

Drake Hater

Footballguy
Sudden WR dilemma as in addition to E. Moore being doubtful, now Cooks tweaked his back and has a designation. 

If neither can go I'm in desperate need of a WR. Waiver wire options are:

A. St. Brown at Den (who FBG is loving in the primer)

Kirk vs Rams

Crowder vs Saints

Or others on the WW like Shepard, MVS or...

0.5 PPR and I need a win badly 

 
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Loipz

Footballguy
.5 PPR 

need some help again with a bunch of middling options..

Melvin Gordon(Q) vs DET

Jeff Wilson Jr @ CIN

D’ Onta Foreman vs JAX

Sony Michel @ ARZ

Chuba Hubbard vs ATL

bolded are who I have in currently with a mix of expected workload for JWJ and matchup for Gordon. Any changes you think?

 

heckmanm

Footballguy
Need 6 warm bodies out of this group.  Current starters bolded.

  • Mike Davis
  • D'Ernest Johnson
  • Tony Jones
  • Larry Rountree
  • Ty'Son Williams
  • Jalen Guyton
  • Terrace Marshall
  • Denzel Mmis
  • Elijah Moore (Q)
  • Deebo Samuel (Q)
  • Juwan Johnson
  • Foster Moreau
Really just putting this up for a laugh. I make the playoffs with a win or a loss by another team that's a ~25 point dog according to MFL. But this dog, in general, won't hunt.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Playoffs baby :excited:

rb2: Karen hunt or Davonte Freeman

TE: Everett or Ryan griffin :oldunsure:
PPR? I know it's week 14 but I haven't memorized everyone's league configuration yet.

I have said that I think Baltimore's rush D stats are a mirage but I still think you have to roll with Freeman. Since the week 8 bye he is getting over 18 opportunities/game including 4+ targets/game. His low is 14 opportunities and he has two games with 22. He also has a TD in three of five games. Baltimore sees him as their answer at RB.

Freeman>Hunt

Everett gets more looks in a far better matchup. The Texans are tanking.

Everett>Griffin 

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
PPR? I know it's week 14 but I haven't memorized everyone's league configuration yet.

I have said that I think Baltimore's rush D stats are a mirage but I still think you have to roll with Freeman. Since the week 8 bye he is getting over 18 opportunities/game including 4+ targets/game. His low is 14 opportunities and he has two games with 22. He also has a TD in three of five games. Baltimore sees him as their answer at RB.

Freeman>Hunt

Everett gets more looks in a far better matchup. The Texans are tanking.

Everett>Griffin 
Ppr, thanks. My initial thoughts were the same but Everett hurt last week. I don’t remember the last time a starting player other than maybe a kicker got negative points on the day. 

 

kyoun1e

Footballguy
Stupid kicker question.

Been riding G. Zeurlein, but somebody just dropped M. Prater. Looking to line up weeks 16 and 17.

Greg Z: Wash, AZ

M. Prater: Indy, @DAL

Both kickers don't have weather issues. Check.

AZ probably the favorite in both of their games. Advantage Prater.

Don't love Prater vs Indy. Indy will attempt to slow things down. Maybe less possessions. Possible advantage Greg Z.

Prater 4-6 over 50 + while Greg the leg only 2-5. Advantage Prater.

Feels coin toss ish.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
My RB2 and Flex spots are all up in the air.

Standard scoring

RB1 already locked in with Aaron Jones.

Need an RB2 and flex out of this:

Javonte Williams (leaning that way for RB2), Saquon Barkley, Tee Higgins (leaning that way for flex), Rashaad Penny (could pick up Jeff Wilson as well).
It's tough to bench Saquon in a great matchup...or is it? I don't know what to think about him at this point. I know the talent is there but this is pretty much a wasted season. Part of me hope he continues to underperform so I can try to get him at a discount next year. For this season, I just don't trust him.

Higgins is on a tear over the last two and he's only had one bad game since week seven as defenses have figured out how to contain Ja'Marr Chase.

Javonte has a great matchup and it is difficult to bench him after last week. But IMO starting him means you think Melvin Gordon will be on a snap count. After last week I suspect Javonte may be in the lineup during more six-minute offense, two-minute offense & crunch-time situations where Gordon was the preferred choice previously. But I have nothing to support that belief. I'm curious to see it play out. But Gordon has done nothing to lose his role and we may see Javonte go back to 12-14 opportunities.

Wilson & Penny are clearly going to be hot topics this week. I am bearish on Wilson and slightly, just a little bit of a tinge of a taste bullish on Penny.

For Wilson I think people are paying too much attention to Mitchell's absence and not enough on Deebo's potential presence. Either way I think Wilson could get 20 opportunities and people should not ignore that. I am just down on his ability to do a lot with those opportunities which, in my eyes makes him TD dependent.

Penny runs the risk of limited touches and every time he gets tackled or breaks into the open field or jogs to the sidelines or has a sip of sports drink we will all hold our breath hoping he doesn't get injured. But I just think this week, this particular game against a Texans team that is clearly making a run at the #1 pick Penny will get an opportunity to take the RB job in Seattle RoS. I personally think he has enough talent to do exactly that. Collins has been serviceable but Penny may have that IT factor that Collins.

RB: Tee/Javonte>>Penny>Wilson/Saquon

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Sudden WR dilemma as in addition to E. Moore being doubtful, now Cooks tweaked his back and has a designation. 

If neither can go I'm in desperate need of a WR. Waiver wire options are:

A. St. Brown at Den (who FBG is loving in the primer)

Kirk vs Rams

Crowder vs Saints

Or others on the WW like Shepard, MVS or...

0.5 PPR and I need a win badly 
I see Moore as Questionable on MFL, not Doubtful.

I'd Moore is out Crowder should be in line for about a million dump off passes, shouldn't he? The Saints know that but Crowder is a savvy guy who knows how to find open spaces. He may be a good play even if Moore is in the lineup.

Kirk is too unpredictable.

I don't like any Lions in a tough roadie at Denver but of Hock is out they have to throw someone. They'll be a bunch of six yard catches but it isn't dissimilar to what I expect from Crowder.

Shepard would be a great play but...Mike Glennon? :oldunsure:

MVS is by far the most likely to hit a home run for you. He's got the best QB, by light years, and a good matchup. The question is if the volume will be there? I personally think he'll get enough to roll the dice.

MVS>Amon/Crowder

 

Chaka

Footballguy
.5 PPR 

need some help again with a bunch of middling options..

Melvin Gordon(Q) vs DET

Jeff Wilson Jr @ CIN

D’ Onta Foreman vs JAX

Sony Michel @ ARZ

Chuba Hubbard vs ATL

bolded are who I have in currently with a mix of expected workload for JWJ and matchup for Gordon. Any changes you think?
Foreman also has a good matchup and should see solid volume. I'm going to struggle in here deciding between Foreman, Wilson & Penny this week.

Right now I have Foreman at the top of the heap.

People love that Hilliard ripped off a big gain against the Pats last game and his stat line was great. But I don't think most people realize that Hilliard was still returning kicks in that game, Foreman got 19 carries (for 109 yards) and was still in the lineup when the Titans were clearly in catch up mode. Apparently McNichols is back this week which, IMO, means Hilliard will see even more time on special teams and Foreman's role will be unchanged.

Gordon is a bit of a wild card. If he's healthy he hasn't really done anything to lose his role. But will Javonte start seeing more opportunities in crunch situations (2-min offense, 6-minute offense etc) that had previously favored Gordon by a wide margin? IDK but I can't imagine not being at least a little bearish on Gordon ATM.

Just gonna cut & paste what I said about Wilson above: 

For Wilson I think people are paying too much attention to Mitchell's absence and not enough on Deebo's potential presence. Either way I think Wilson could get 20 opportunities and people should not ignore that. I am just down on his ability to do a lot with those opportunities which, in my eyes makes him TD dependent.


Foreman>Gordon>Wilson but I could see Wilson>Gordon for a little more potential volume.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Need 6 warm bodies out of this group.  Current starters bolded.

  • Mike Davis
  • D'Ernest Johnson
  • Tony Jones
  • Larry Rountree
  • Ty'Son Williams
  • Jalen Guyton
  • Terrace Marshall
  • Denzel Mmis
  • Elijah Moore (Q)
  • Deebo Samuel (Q)
  • Juwan Johnson
  • Foster Moreau
Really just putting this up for a laugh. I make the playoffs with a win or a loss by another team that's a ~25 point dog according to MFL. But this dog, in general, won't hunt.
Nope, I got nothing.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Stupid kicker question.

Been riding G. Zeurlein, but somebody just dropped M. Prater. Looking to line up weeks 16 and 17.

Greg Z: Wash, AZ

M. Prater: Indy, @DAL

Both kickers don't have weather issues. Check.

AZ probably the favorite in both of their games. Advantage Prater.

Don't love Prater vs Indy. Indy will attempt to slow things down. Maybe less possessions. Possible advantage Greg Z.

Prater 4-6 over 50 + while Greg the leg only 2-5. Advantage Prater.

Feels coin toss ish.
It is a coin toss. Like defenses, kickers are random number generators. 

Analytics isn't helping with all the going for it on 4th down and 2-point conversions.

I haven't looked at that analytics data so I don't know for sure but my guess is McCarthy is more likely to pucker up in crunch time and take the "easy three" than Kingsbury. But you should probably verify that.

Zeurlein (who is my kicker) is getting a few more FG opps than Prater (available on my wire) who gets more XP tries. IMO, while they probably even out scoring wise over time, in a single game there is more of a premium on FGs than XPs. 

Zeurlein>Prater

 
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Chaka

Footballguy
Ppr, thanks. My initial thoughts were the same but Everett hurt last week. I don’t remember the last time a starting player other than maybe a kicker got negative points on the day. 
I don't see an injury designation for Everett on MFL.

Two fumbles shouldn't be ignored but... Griffin? I honestly had to look up what team he was playing for.

 

kyoun1e

Footballguy
It is a coin toss. Like defenses, kickers are random number generators. 

Analytics isn't helping with all the going for it on 4th down and 2-point conversions.

I haven't looked at that analytics data so I don't know for sure but my guess is McCarthy is more likely to pucker up in crunch time and take the "easy three" than Kingsbury. But you should probably verify that.

Zeurlein (who is my kicker) is getting a few more FG opps than Prater (available on my wire) who gets more XP tries. IMO, while they probably even out scoring wise over time, in a single game there is more of a premium on FGs than XPs. 

Zeurlein>Prater


The "pucker up" factor is a big one. Tend to agree with you that McCarthy could wuss out and go for the kick.

Thing with Zeurlein is he's a tad streaky. Good and bad. Beginning of the season he had the yips as if he forgot how to kick. Now it feels like he's on a roll. Could reverse course though.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
The "pucker up" factor is a big one. Tend to agree with you that McCarthy could wuss out and go for the kick.

Thing with Zeurlein is he's a tad streaky. Good and bad. Beginning of the season he had the yips as if he forgot how to kick. Now it feels like he's on a roll. Could reverse course though.
Yeah it's tough. McCarthy seems like a guy who has heard of analytics and wants to seem like he's hip with the new trends but when push-comes-to-shove he's gonna choose a polo tee with khaki shorts, white tube socks and boat shoes.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
PLEASE NOTE RE JEFF WILSON & RASHAAD PENNY ETA: & DONTA FOREMAN

These are two guys that my opinion on has changed throughout this week and is likely going to change again as we get closer to kickoff. 

If I made a recommendation earlier this week it very well may have changed already or will before kickoff.

As always my opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them.

ATM IMO: Foreman>Penny>Wilson (11 Dec, 2021 @ 9:48 am Pacific Standard Time)

But really, who knows?

So please go with your gut.

 
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BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I’m rolling with Godwin Igwebuike as my W/R/T Flex. Still debating Cooks/Sutton as my WR3, but I guess basically over him.

I don’t have much choice:

Carter - IR

Herbert - Monty full practice Friday 

Hockenson -out (I started Freiermuth TNF)

McKissic - was still in concussion protocol yesterday, hasn’t practiced in 2 weeks

Pollard - torn plantar fascia (though TBF this injury is way less serious than plantar fasciitis and should heal quickly)

Swift - Out

That said, Igwebuike has the pass catching role locked up and he is dynamic in space. Jefferson missed two days practice (flu) and PS call Craig Reynolds will take over KR duties from Godwin.

NOTE: I’m heavily favored, game is meaningless as I’m locked into 4th/5th. My opponent will be my 1st round playoff matchup. IOW, virtually no risk. 

 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
Just put in taysom over mahomes in a must win game when I’m an underdog. Ballsy Rught? Someone talk me out of it lol Hill could have the higher ceiling, I know mahomes went nuclear against raiders but he’s cost me way too many wins 

also Sony Michel over penny? Perhaps dpj at the flex due to matchup? Just can’t figure it out. I got Broncos d as the play of the week so I just don’t trust any Detroit skill players 

 

Chaka

Footballguy
I’m rolling with Godwin Igwebuike as my W/R/T Flex. Still debating Cooks/Sutton as my WR3, but I guess basically over him.

I don’t have much choice:

Carter - IR

Herbert - Monty full practice Friday 

Hockenson -out (I started Freiermuth TNF)

McKissic - was still in concussion protocol yesterday, hasn’t practiced in 2 weeks

Pollard - torn plantar fascia (though TBF this injury is way less serious than plantar fasciitis and should heal quickly)

Swift - Out

That said, Igwebuike has the pass catching role locked up and he is dynamic in space. Jefferson missed two days practice (flu) and PS call Craig Reynolds will take over KR duties from Godwin.

NOTE: I’m heavily favored, game is meaningless as I’m locked into 4th/5th. My opponent will be my 1st round playoff matchup. IOW, virtually no risk. 
Can't argue with that although I might roll McKissic if he clears the protocol.

I opt for Cooks, even with the back, simply because he gets a lot more volume than Sutton. Everything else about his situation sucks but, unlike Sutton, there are no other legitimate targets in Houston.

 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
I just cant get on board with any Detroit skill players. They are so depleted and Denver is not a walk in the park. Could totally see Denver having 40 minutes time of possession in mile high and the lions barely having 250 yards of offense. Someone give me another reason to play any Detroit player 

 

Chaka

Footballguy
Just put in taysom over mahomes in a must win game when I’m an underdog. Ballsy Rught? Someone talk me out of it lol Hill could have the higher ceiling, I know mahomes went nuclear against raiders but he’s cost me way too many wins 

also Sony Michel over penny? Perhaps dpj at the flex due to matchup? Just can’t figure it out. I got Broncos d as the play of the week so I just don’t trust any Detroit skill players 
I always tell people to go with their gut so I'm not going to try and talk you out of it.  You know the arguments already.

I roll Penny>Michel simply because you can't have enough info about Michel before Penny plays.  If Henderson is active, and by all accounts he will be, I don't think he has done anything to lose his role. Penny has a great opportunity this week and Carroll is talking like he is serious about rolling Penny out there.  ADP isn't there as a goal line vulture either.

If we knew Henderson was going to be out (again very unlikely IMO) I would say Michel>Penny but we don't so Penny>Michel

I do like Peoples-Jones this week against that severely undermanned Ravens secondary but he is so hit-or-miss, as was the entire Browns team before the bye.  I can't recommend him.

 

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