2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[bamabuddha]

Less players, less odds of injury. New mantra for 2023 subscriber contest.

My newest foster is 20. I might roll with it. No guts no glory?

My current iteration has 21, but as always, it will likely change many times between now and opening day. So it won't necessarily be 21 when we go live.

For everyone else.... What's the roster size of your current roster iteration? Let's take a poll. It might be pretty revealing.

22 for me right now….

24 last year and as others mentioned pricing this year making it difficult for me to get to that number

 

[Puppies]

I've been right around 22 on all of my iterations. Had it up to 23 on my last one (was playing with the idea of taking 2 cheap KC WRs and hoping one or the other hit), but that lasted about 15 minutes before it went back down.

I agree. Too many WR mouths to feed in KC. Mahommes normally spreads it around a lot, so it’s tough to predict who gets the most receptions after Kelce.

 

[joey]

.

For everyone else.... What's the roster size of your current roster iteration? Let's take a poll. It might be pretty revealing.

started at a tight 19 man roster but have upped it all the way to 20
I’m liking the look of 20. I‘m also ”saving” some money by going with 2 $4 K and D instead of 3 $3 K/D. That 2 extra bucks is going to put me over the top. Send the money now, Joe.

 

[Dacomish]

I've been pretty consistent at 22.

QB - Jared Goff - DET/9 - $14
QB - Aaron Rodgers - NYJ/7 - $14
QB - Mac Jones - NE/11 - $8
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Najee Harris - PIT/6 - $25
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/7 - $21
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
RB - Ty Chandler - MIN/13 - $3
WR - A.J. Brown - PHI/10 - $30
WR - DJ Moore - CHI/13 - $18
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $16
WR - DJ Chark Jr. - CAR/7 - $8
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Pat Freiermuth - PIT/6 - $17
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/13 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

Total value: 250

 

[a_troll00]

Alright, let's talk about something important... kickers.

Is it better to go with 3 $3 kickers, or 2 $4 kickers?

It seems that the $3 kickers are far more likely to get canned mid-season.

 

[Puppies]

Alright, let's talk about something important... kickers.

Is it better to go with 3 $3 kickers, or 2 $4 kickers?

It seems that the $3 kickers are far more likely to get canned mid-season.

RE: Kickers

Statistically, expensive kickers do not justify their cap cost in terms of fantasy points. So the trick is to choose the cheapest kickers that have job security.

A $6 kicker will never score twice as many points as a $3 kicker who is secure on his team’s roster.

As long as you don’t roster this year’s version of Rodrigo Blankenship , you should be good to go!

 

[Mister CIA]

Time flies. I finally got around to renewing my membership, so here we go.

 

[Grid71]

Less players, less odds of injury. New mantra for 2023 subscriber contest.

My newest foster is 20. I might roll with it. No guts no glory?

more players to get injured. Awful dicey there

 

[Mister CIA]

First pass observations:

• Difficult to build a studly roster of 20. I'm sitting on 23 at the moment.
• Not liking any of the tier 1 players; loving tier 2 (who will be tier 1 players next year).
• Excellent bargains at $3 and $4 for defense and kickers.
• Roughly, I need 5 players to catch lightning in a bottle.

Gonna go back in time now and read this thread to see what everyone else thinks.

 

[Grid71]

QB - Anthony Richardson - IND/11 - $15
QB - Kenny Pickett - PIT/6 - $10
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs - DET/9 - $25
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
WR - Jaylen Waddle - MIA/10 - $28
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - Rashid Shaheed - NO/11 - $7
WR - Alec Pierce - IND/11 - $7
WR - Allen Robinson II - PIT/6 - $5
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
TE - Mark Andrews - BAL/13 - $28
TE - Kyle Pitts - ATL/11 - $18
TE - Dalton Kincaid - BUF/13 - $10
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Anders Carlson - GB/6 - $3
PK - Caleb Shudak - TEN/7 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

Latest rooster size 21. Totally locked in no more changes.

 

[ZWK]

I added some data on survival rate by roster size to the spreadsheet where I've kept track of prices & ownership rates. I just found the data in previous years' threads; I think some other people kept track of survival rate data more systematically in the past.

Larger rosters have consistently had a better chance to make the finals. Generally 27-28 player rosters make the finals most often. Last year 27-28 player rosters made the finals 3.4x as often as 18-player rosters, the year before 4.7x, the year before that 3.8x.

I usually go with 29-30 players, which I think are even better if you do it right (get at least a couple studs along with tons of cheap value plays). A lot of the value plays emerge over the course of the preseason as we learn more about depth charts & see which surprise guys look good. So if I had to lock in my roster now it might be 25-27 rather than 29-30.

 

[joey]

I added some data on survival rate by roster size to the spreadsheet where I've kept track of prices & ownership rates. I just found the data in previous years' threads; I think some other people kept track of survival rate data more systematically in the past.

Larger rosters have consistently had a better chance to make the finals. Generally 27-28 player rosters make the finals most often. Last year 27-28 player rosters made the finals 3.4x as often as 18-player rosters, the year before 4.7x, the year before that 3.8x.

I usually go with 29-30 players, which I think are even better if you do it right (get at least a couple studs along with tons of cheap value plays). A lot of the value plays emerge over the course of the preseason as we learn more about depth charts & see which surprise guys look good. So if I had to lock in my roster now it might be 25-27 rather than 29-30.

You just made me go back and make my 47th tweak and now I’m up to 21 players. With the prices the way they are this year, I don’t feel comfortable going above that number at this point unless something big happens this preseason to make one or two value players really pop.

 

[dbc925]

Hey all, great to be back for another season! Worked on this a bit last night. Early observation is that the pricing this year is better than ever. Accuracy-wise. Not great for us. Few bargains to be had. Sitting on a 23 man roster, finding it tough to move up to 24, but not wanting to go down to 22. Here’s the breakdown.

3 QB - $30. Apparently quantity over quality
5 RB - $104. Call me old school
6 WR - $58. This will make or break me.
3 TE - $28. Never liked spending money here, even at 1.5ppr.
3 K - $12. I’ve been burned on in-season cuts of $3 guys, so it’s 3x4.
3 DST - $11. Probably spent too much here, but I’m comfortable with it.

Good luck all, and let’s get a winner out of the forum this season!

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I've been pretty consistent at 22.

QB - Jared Goff - DET/9 - $14
QB - Aaron Rodgers - NYJ/7 - $14
QB - Mac Jones - NE/11 - $8
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Najee Harris - PIT/6 - $25
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/7 - $21
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
RB - Ty Chandler - MIN/13 - $3
WR - A.J. Brown - PHI/10 - $30
WR - DJ Moore - CHI/13 - $18
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $16
WR - DJ Chark Jr. - CAR/7 - $8
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Pat Freiermuth - PIT/6 - $17
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Graham Gano - NYG/13 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

Total value: 250

For the sake of argument...and because I'm wrestling with similar issues....you've got $16 tied up in chark, wilson, chandler, and a couple 4 dollar kickers. If this was reallocated to $7 for RB5 and $9 for WR4 would you like the squad better or not?

 

[scottybo]

Maxed out and I don't dislike it.

QB - Matthew Stafford - LAR/10 - $10
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
QB - Jimmy Garoppolo - LV/13 - $9
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
QB - Ryan Tannehill - TEN/7 - $8
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
RB - Raheem Mostert - MIA/10 - $10
RB - Elijah Mitchell - SF/9 - $10
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - NE/11 - $7
RB - Ty Chandler - MIN/13 - $3
WR - DeAndre Hopkins - TEN/7 - $19
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - SEA/5 - $13
WR - Jakobi Meyers - LV/13 - $12
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/6 - $9
WR - Mack Hollins - ATL/11 - $4
WR - Jalin Hyatt - NYG/13 - $4
WR - Josh Reynolds - DET/9 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Tyler Higbee - LAR/10 - $14
TE - Zach Ertz - ARI/14 - $7
TE - Luke Musgrave - GB/6 - $6
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/9 - $4
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/10 - $3

 

[Ackme]

The old busted joint:

here is my fifth iteration....

this afternoon

QB - Jalen Hurts - PHI/10 - $25
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Austin Ekeler - LAC/5 - $34
RB - Saquon Barkley - NYG/13 - $31
RB - Rashaad Penny - PHI/10 - $10
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - Chris Olave - NO/11 - $27
WR - K.J. Osborn - MIN/13 - $9
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Corey Davis - NYJ/7 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Dalton Schultz - HOU/7 - $14
TE - Luke Musgrave - GB/6 - $6
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/13 - $4
TD - Atlanta Falcons - ATL/11 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3

The new hotness:

QB - Aaron Rodgers - NYJ/7 - $14
QB - Brock Purdy - SF/9 - $12
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
QB - Desmond Ridder - ATL/11 - $7
RB - Najee Harris - PIT/6 - $25
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
RB - Zamir White - LV/13 - $8
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - NE/11 - $7
RB - Israel Abanikanda - NYJ/7 - $4
RB - Kyren Williams - LAR/10 - $4
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - Christian Watson - GB/6 - $20
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/6 - $9
WR - Mack Hollins - ATL/11 - $4
WR - Parris Campbell - NYG/13 - $4
WR - Khalil Shakir - BUF/13 - $4
WR - Corey Davis - NYJ/7 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Jelani Woods - IND/11 - $7
TE - Tyler Conklin - NYJ/7 - $7
TE - Luke Musgrave - GB/6 - $6
TE - Michael Mayer - LV/13 - $6
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Wil Lutz - NO/11 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - Minnesota Vikings - MIN/13 - $4
TD - Washington Commanders - WAS/14 - $4
TD - Denver Broncos - DEN/9 - $4

 

[rustycolts]

21 and I think I'm done.

QB - Trevor Lawrence - JAX/9 - $19
QB - Mac Jones - NE/11 - $8
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Travis Etienne Jr. - JAX/9 - $23
RB - Cam Akers - LAR/10 - $21
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
WR - Calvin Ridley - JAX/9 - $21
WR - Tyler Lockett - SEA/5 - $19
WR - Michael Pittman Jr. - IND/11 - $17
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $16
WR - Adam Thielen - CAR/7 - $11
WR - Chase Claypool - CHI/13 - $5
WR - Khalil Shakir - BUF/13 - $4
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Taysom Hill - NO/11 - $8
TE - Dawson Knox - BUF/13 - $8
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
PK - Ka'imi Fairbairn - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Chargers - LAC/5 - $3
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/7 - $3

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think I’m locked in at 22

2 QB for $31
5 RB for $80
9 WR for $100
2 TE for $19
2 K for $8
2 D/ST for $10



A little thin at RB, bargain basement TE.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I think I’m locked in at 22

2 QB for $31
5 RB for $80
9 WR for $100
2 TE for $19
2 K for $8
2 D/ST for $10



A little thin at RB, bargain basement TE.

the opposite also at 22....bargain shopping for WRs....

3QB ($44)
5RB ($93)
5WR ($58)
3TE ($35)
3PK ($10)
3TD ($10)

 

[Dacomish]

I think my tinker days are finally through....(as I have the cold sweats), and found my sweet spot at 24 players, provided there are no injury worries the next few weeks till lock:

3 QB ($38)
6 RB ($82)
6 WR ($78)
3 TE ($32)
3 K ($11)
3 DEF ($9)

I had hovered around 21-22 most of the open registration period but given we need to build for comfort the first 14 weeks, then need to be built for speed the playoffs I went with a decent top option for each (except QB, K and Def) and then a 2nd tier option for the 2nd spot and then remaining value plays with no bye conflicts. Its hard to trust no injuries or players just wearing down at the end so I felt a few more players to help balance the long season will help.

 

[Galileo]

2 QB - $33
4 RB - $71
5 WR - $95
3 TE - $33
3 K - $9
3 D - $9
Only 20 bodies. Would like to wiggle another RB into the mix...

 

[Payne]

QB - Geno Smith - SEA/5 - $16
QB - Jared Goff - DET/9 - $14
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - Khalil Herbert - CHI/13 - $13
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
RB - Ezekiel Elliott - NE/11 - $7
RB - Chris Evans - CIN/7 - $3
WR - Garrett Wilson - NYJ/7 - $29
WR - Keenan Allen - LAC/5 - $21
WR - Diontae Johnson - PIT/6 - $18
WR - Elijah Moore - CLE/5 - $11
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Dalton Kincaid - BUF/13 - $10
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
TE - Hayden Hurst - CAR/7 - $8
PK - Jason Sanders - MIA/10 - $4
PK - Riley Patterson - DET/9 - $4
PK - Greg Zuerlein - NYJ/7 - $4
TD - Dallas Cowboys - DAL/7 - $7
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3

Total value: 250

 

[joey]

Current version. 21 players.

QB - Lamar Jackson - BAL/13 - $22
QB - Jordan Love - GB/6 - $9
RB - Nick Chubb - CLE/5 - $30
RB - Joe Mixon - CIN/7 - $24
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
RB - Roschon Johnson - CHI/13 - $8
WR - CeeDee Lamb - DAL/7 - $31
WR - George Pickens - PIT/6 - $15
WR - Van Jefferson - LAR/10 - $8
WR - Rashid Shaheed - NO/11 - $7
WR - Jalin Hyatt - NYG/13 - $4
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Travis Kelce - KC/10 - $35
TE - Jake Ferguson - DAL/7 - $6
TE - Durham Smythe - MIA/10 - $4
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
TD - Indianapolis Colts - IND/11 - $4
TD - Washington Commanders - WAS/14 - $4


i expect to change the kickers and D but likely keep the same cost.
And change everything else too, of course.

 

[TheWinz]

QB - Jarrett Stidham - DEN/9 - $3
QB - Bailey Zappe - NE/11 - $3
RB - Corey Clement - ARI/14 - $3
RB - Ty Chandler - MIN/13 - $3
RB - Ameer Abdullah - LV/13 - $3
RB - Kyle Juszczyk - SF/9 - $3
RB - Isaiah Spiller - LAC/5 - $3
RB - Nyheim Hines - BUF/13 - $3
RB - Boston Scott - PHI/10 - $3
RB - DeWayne McBride - MIN/13 - $3
RB - Eric Gray - NYG/13 - $3
RB - Chris Evans - CIN/7 - $3
WR - Braxton Berrios - MIA/10 - $3
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Tutu Atwell - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Puka Nacua - LAR/10 - $3
WR - Randall Cobb - NYJ/7 - $3
WR - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - TEN/7 - $3
WR - Corey Davis - NYJ/7 - $3
WR - Josh Reynolds - DET/9 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
WR - Jauan Jennings - SF/9 - $3
WR - Greg Dortch - ARI/14 - $3
WR - Laviska Shenault Jr. - CAR/7 - $3
TE - Foster Moreau - NO/11 - $3
TE - Jonnu Smith - ATL/11 - $3
PK - Caleb Shudak - TEN/7 - $3
PK - Elliott Fry - DEN/9 - $3
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/10 - $3

Why anyone would spend over $3 on a player is beyond me?

 

[TheWinz]

2 RB's, 3 WR's, and 1TE

WAS - Gibson, Robinson, McLaurin, Dotson, Samuel, Thomas = $86 = $8 QB Howell
BUF - Cook, Harris, Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Kincaid = $89 = $25 QB Allen

Hmmm?

 

[lsutigers]

3 QB - $36
5 RB - $74
5 WR - $92
3 TE - $20
4 K - $15
2 D - $13

22 and feeling ok about it. I usually have lost ~1/2 by roster by week 4 or so, so went off the "didn't get injured last year" almanac from 2024.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I sense a disturbance in The Force.....its 9,473 youtube videos telling me all the must haves and avoids in my bestball roster.

 

[ZWK]

Looking at the 9 $3 kicker options:

5 are currently the only kicker on their roster: Kaimi Fairbairn (HOU), Cairo Santos (CHI), Anders Carlson (GB), Brett Maher (DEN), and Michael Badgley (TEN). None of the 5 have meaningful guaranteed money. Fairbairn & Santos are both long-time kickers for their teams, in the last year of their contracts, and neither team has brought in competition at any point this offseason. Anders Carlson is a 6th round rookie who has struggled in camp, but the Packers say they want to be patient with him and haven't brought in any competition. Maher & Badgley are both cheap FA journeymen, who are currently the only man standing on their team (DEN cut Fry a week ago, TEN cut Shudak & Wolff today when they signed Badgley), but both teams say they're still looking at other options. Badgley is already on his third team of the offseason after losing 2 kicking competitions (in DET & WAS) so is presumably on shakier ground.

1 other is currently in a competition: Dustin Hopkins (LAC) is competing with Cameron Dicker to start for the Chargers. My sense is that Dicker is favored.

3 others aren't on a roster: Elliott Fry (formerly DEN) was cut with an (apparently minor) injury designation in favor of Maher, Caleb Shudak (formerly TEN) was cut in favor of Badgley, and Robbie Gould hasn't been on a roster all offseason after SF moved on.

 

[Angry Beavers]

3 QB - $43
4 RB - 73
4WR - 80
3 TE - 36
2 PK - 8
2 TD - 10

I reserved the right to makes changes... I made changes while creating this post in fact......

 

[Irelad]

I couldn't find enough cheap fliers I liked to make a team with a top tier option at RB, WR, and TE and enough depth. So basically have to hope enough of my mid-tier WRs overperform.

2 QB - $28
6 RB - $85
5 WR - $69
3 TE - $52
2 PK - $7
3 TD - $9

 

[Galileo]

Looking at the 9 $3 kicker options:

5 are currently the only kicker on their roster: Kaimi Fairbairn (HOU), Cairo Santos (CHI), Anders Carlson (GB), Brett Maher (DEN), and Michael Badgley (TEN). None of the 5 have meaningful guaranteed money. Fairbairn & Santos are both long-time kickers for their teams, in the last year of their contracts, and neither team has brought in competition at any point this offseason. Anders Carlson is a 6th round rookie who has struggled in camp, but the Packers say they want to be patient with him and haven't brought in any competition. Maher & Badgley are both cheap FA journeymen, who are currently the only man standing on their team (DEN cut Fry a week ago, TEN cut Shudak & Wolff today when they signed Badgley), but both teams say they're still looking at other options. Badgley is already on his third team of the offseason after losing 2 kicking competitions (in DET & WAS) so is presumably on shakier ground.

1 other is currently in a competition: Dustin Hopkins (LAC) is competing with Cameron Dicker to start for the Chargers. My sense is that Dicker is favored.

3 others aren't on a roster: Elliott Fry (formerly DEN) was cut with an (apparently minor) injury designation in favor of Maher, Caleb Shudak (formerly TEN) was cut in favor of Badgley, and Robbie Gould hasn't been on a roster all offseason after SF moved on.

Just another nugget to consider...Badgley and Fairbairn share the same bye week.

 

[BroncosFan07]

28 player roster. I think I’m feeling good with this being close to my final iteration.

QB - Jared Goff - DET/9 - $14
QB - Aaron Rodgers - NYJ/7 - $14
QB - Kenny Pickett - PIT/6 - $10
RB - Tony Pollard - DAL/7 - $29
RB - Brian Robinson - WAS/14 - $15
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
RB - Raheem Mostert - MIA/10 - $10
RB - Tank Bigsby - JAX/9 - $9
RB - Kenneth Gainwell - PHI/10 - $8
WR - George Pickens - PIT/6 - $15
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Zay Flowers - BAL/13 - $10
WR - Romeo Doubs - GB/6 - $9
WR - Marvin Jones Jr. - DET/9 - $4
WR - Jalin Hyatt - NYG/13 - $4
WR - Tank Dell - HOU/7 - $3
WR - Josh Reynolds - DET/9 - $3
WR - Michael Wilson - ARI/14 - $3
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
TE - Juwan Johnson - NO/11 - $9
TE - Sam LaPorta - DET/9 - $9
TE - Luke Musgrave - GB/6 - $6
PK - Brandon McManus - JAX/9 - $4
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
PK - Ka'imi Fairbairn - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Seattle Seahawks - SEA/5 - $4
TD - Detroit Lions - DET/9 - $3
TD - Tennessee Titans - TEN/7 - $3

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It…it’s been 2 full days since I’ve tinkered with my roster.

I may have to call my doctor for an appointment. Clearly there’s something wrong with me.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Thesis: this contest is easy. The only trick is trying to decide between 3 and 4 top 24 players.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

 

[Deamon]

Ugh this is so much harder this year. First shot at it, didn't look at bye weeks yet.

QB - Trevor Lawrence - JAX/9 - $19
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/13 - $16
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/7 - $21
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - Rachaad White - TB/5 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $16
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Gabe Davis - BUF/13 - $12
WR - Zay Flowers - BAL/13 - $10
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/10 - $18
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
PK - Ka'imi Fairbairn - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/10 - $3

 

[scottybo]

Todays lineup:

3 QB = 43
4 RB = 73
5 WR = 73
3 TE = 38
3 PK = 11
3 TD = 12

 

[TwinTurbo]

I've been right around 22 on all of my iterations. Had it up to 23 on my last one (was playing with the idea of taking 2 cheap KC WRs and hoping one or the other hit), but that lasted about 15 minutes before it went back down.

I agree. Too many WR mouths to feed in KC. Mahommes normally spreads it around a lot, so it’s tough to predict who gets the most receptions after Kelce.

But is this the year Kelce starts to decline. It's a coin flip. All I know is he got turned down by Taylor Swift. That's a huge red flag for me. If he's not good enough for Taylor, is he really good enough for your fantasy roster. These are the existential questions that must be asked.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Less players, less odds of injury. New mantra for 2023 subscriber contest.

My newest foster is 20. I might roll with it. No guts no glory?

My current iteration has 21, but as always, it will likely change many times between now and opening day. So it won't necessarily be 21 when we go live.

For everyone else.... What's the roster size of your current roster iteration? Let's take a poll. It might be pretty revealing.

22 for me right now….

24 last year and as others mentioned pricing this year making it difficult for me to get to that number

I'm going with 23 ftw.

 

[BassNBrew]

Ugh this is so much harder this year. First shot at it, didn't look at bye weeks yet.

QB - Trevor Lawrence - JAX/9 - $19
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/13 - $16
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/7 - $21
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - Rachaad White - TB/5 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $16
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Gabe Davis - BUF/13 - $12
WR - Zay Flowers - BAL/13 - $10
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/10 - $18
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
PK - Ka'imi Fairbairn - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/10 - $3

Where did you find my re-draft do not draft list?

 

[Puppies]

I've been right around 22 on all of my iterations. Had it up to 23 on my last one (was playing with the idea of taking 2 cheap KC WRs and hoping one or the other hit), but that lasted about 15 minutes before it went back down.

I agree. Too many WR mouths to feed in KC. Mahommes normally spreads it around a lot, so it’s tough to predict who gets the most receptions after Kelce.

But is this the year Kelce starts to decline. It's a coin flip. All I know is he got turned down by Taylor Swift. That's a huge red flag for me. If he's not good enough for Taylor, is he really good enough for your fantasy roster. These are the existential questions that must be asked.

We’ll, I got turned down by Taylor Swift too, so that doesn’t really mean anything one way or the other. Oh Wait! Maybe that was just a dream

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

My lingering issue is that I don't like the risk reward of any of the $9 - $12 wide receivers. I mean how are you supposed to figure out which Ravens WR will win out?

Taylor Swift said she was hot for me but I told her to shake it off.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Ugh this is so much harder this year. First shot at it, didn't look at bye weeks yet.

QB - Trevor Lawrence - JAX/9 - $19
QB - Daniel Jones - NYG/13 - $16
QB - Sam Howell - WAS/14 - $8
RB - Dameon Pierce - HOU/7 - $21
RB - Javonte Williams - DEN/9 - $19
RB - Rachaad White - TB/5 - $19
RB - James Cook - BUF/13 - $18
RB - Alvin Kamara - NO/11 - $15
WR - Mike Evans - TB/5 - $16
WR - Jahan Dotson - WAS/14 - $14
WR - Gabe Davis - BUF/13 - $12
WR - Zay Flowers - BAL/13 - $10
WR - Nico Collins - HOU/7 - $10
TE - Dallas Goedert - PHI/10 - $18
TE - Darren Waller - NYG/13 - $17
PK - Brett Maher - DEN/9 - $3
PK - Cairo Santos - CHI/13 - $3
PK - Ka'imi Fairbairn - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Carolina Panthers - CAR/7 - $3
TD - Houston Texans - HOU/7 - $3
TD - Los Angeles Rams - LAR/10 - $3

Where did you find my re-draft do not draft list?

Pierce and Kamara seem to have the most conflicting views on outlook. At the moment I would say the haters are winning on the Kamara outlook and the advocates are winning on the Pierce outlook.

 

[Grid71]

Many more iterations to go, but starting to feel decent at 22 rooster size. Most likely get a 3rd kicker in before the deadline.
2-6-6-4-2-2

 

[joey]

Just went through another total WR rejiggering. That’s the toughest nut for me to crack.
And just committed to 2 $4 K and 2 $4 D instead of 3x$3. That extra 2 bucks gave me the wiggle room I needed to make the latest contest-winning upgrade!

ETA: 2/5/6/3/2/2

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

3/5/5/3/2/3//21

$44/76/78/32/8/12//250

 

[TwinTurbo]

On a serious note, is this the year Kelce finally starts to age out? Last season at age 32, he set career high marks for receptions, targets, and TDs with a 20% fantasy point increase from the prior season. But that was partially due to the fact that KC had the most mid WR room in the league. Aside from him, their best WR was a RB McKinnon. That game against the Raiders was also a massive lol, 7 rec/4TDs. The defensive scheme was maybe the worst in any game that I watched during the entire season.

Raiders D aside, Kelce was ridiculous last year:

#1 TE in receptions that resulted in a first down or TD (92)
#1 TE in yards per route run (2.24)
802 yds after the catch
122.0 passer rating when targeted

Kelce was in a league of his own last season, nobody else was close. But at $35, he needs to finish close to last season's stats. He is elite and will continue to produce. But will he be able to have close to a career year at age 33, the year when even most elite TEs start to drop off the map. I made the mistake of not picking him last year, moving budget to Kupp instead.

The only con that I can see from 2022 is that 60% of his TDs came in 2 games, none in the final 6 regular season games, before he turned it back on in the NFL playoffs. And that perfectly coincided with McKinnon substituting as the WR1 over the final third of the season. So if a WR1 actually emerges in 2023, is there any path for Kelce to approach last season's stats?

I don't know, this is probably the toughest decision looking at how to allocate budget across any of the top 24.

 

[joey]

Value WRs ( $12 or less is the arbitrary line I’m drawing since I like a few of the $13+ WRs)

this is a tough group this year imo. Guys that are ending up on and off my rosters over the first few thousand iterations are:
$3 M Wilson , $3 Tank Dell, $4 Hyatt are my favorite super-cheap guys.

Hate the $5 guys.

$6 Metchie (if he’s actually healthy), $7 Pierce, $7 Shaheed are interesting to me in this range

$8 Van Jefferson, $9 Doubs, $9 Osborn, $10 Flowers also end up in iterations of my roster.

Don’t really like any of the $11 guys.

$12 Sutton (with or without Jeudy injury?) has been on many iterations of my roster, and $12 Lazard and $12 M Thomas catch my eye in this range as well.

thoughts from others? Love? Hate? DND? or Must Include In Every Iteration?

 

[TwinTurbo]

Value WRs ( $12 or less is the arbitrary line I’m drawing since I like a few of the $13+ WRs)

this is a tough group this year imo. Guys that are ending up on and off my rosters over the first few thousand iterations are:
$3 M Wilson , $3 Tank Dell, $4 Hyatt are my favorite super-cheap guys.

Hate the $5 guys.

$6 Metchie (if he’s actually healthy), $7 Pierce, $7 Shaheed are interesting to me in this range

$8 Van Jefferson, $9 Doubs, $9 Osborn, $10 Flowers also end up in iterations of my roster.

Don’t really like any of the $11 guys.

$12 Sutton (with or without Jeudy injury?) has been on many iterations of my roster, and $12 Lazard and $12 M Thomas catch my eye in this range as well.

thoughts from others? Love? Hate? DND? or Must Include In Every Iteration?

For the $12 group:

Sutton is on my DND list. He's not an alpha WR, he's not a WR1. Last pre-season, I compared him to MVS.
M Thomas is very intriguing. He might be the best value on the board at $12 or under, but can he stay healthy?

 

[apalmer]

Value WRs ( $12 or less is the arbitrary line I’m drawing since I like a few of the $13+ WRs)

this is a tough group this year imo. Guys that are ending up on and off my rosters over the first few thousand iterations are:
$3 M Wilson , $3 Tank Dell, $4 Hyatt are my favorite super-cheap guys.

Hate the $5 guys.

$6 Metchie (if he’s actually healthy), $7 Pierce, $7 Shaheed are interesting to me in this range

$8 Van Jefferson, $9 Doubs, $9 Osborn, $10 Flowers also end up in iterations of my roster.

Don’t really like any of the $11 guys.

$12 Sutton (with or without Jeudy injury?) has been on many iterations of my roster, and $12 Lazard and $12 M Thomas catch my eye in this range as well.

thoughts from others? Love? Hate? DND? or Must Include In Every Iteration?

For the $12 group:

Sutton is on my DND list. He's not an alpha WR, he's not a WR1. Last pre-season, I compared him to MVS.
M Thomas is very intriguing. He might be the best value on the board at $12 or under, but can he stay healthy?

Sutton has burned me in this contest the last two years and I swore "never again". Now he's cheap and Jeudy is hurt and I'm wondering if this is the year he isn't a total waste.

 

[Puppies]

Here's Courtland Sutton's stat line last year from my database through week 12, when my team was eliminated. He did ok the first few weeks but then mostly disappeared for 4 weeks (including his week 9 bye) before showing up again in weeks 11 and 12. I agree that last year he did not justify his $19 cap.

Sutton, Courtland WR DEN

WR

$19

DEN/9

Season points/$ =$6.04​

Projected avg=14.24​

points scored= 114.70​

game avg= 10.43​

Week1

​

11.20​

Week2​

19.70​

Week3​

17.70​

Week4​

16.20​

Week5​

12.40​

Week6​

3.40​

Week7​

5.30​

Week8​

2.30​

Week10​

0.00​

Week11​

13.00​

Week12​

13.50​