We might have a shot then.
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2024 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TheWinz
- Start date
We might have a shot then.
Puppies
Footballguy
On weeks with only 1 Monday night game, the cut line has moved:
5.30 week 11
7.85 week 10
3.30 week 9
4.75 week 8
7.80 week 6
3.85 week 5
6.60 week 2
6.30 week 1
Average = 5.72
6 teams out with a steeper cut% should push that to the higher end.
Assuming players have an average game tonight, I have the cutline moving to 141. If that were the case, The Bargain Bin would clear with score of 143.35. Below is your team updated with Dobbins', Likely, and the Chargers DST updated with their seasonal average.
qb | Bo Nix | 26.15 |
wr | Tre Tucker | 15.2 |
wr | Jameson Williams | 11.8 |
rb | J.K. Dobbins | 14.4 |
rb | James Conner | 7.4 |
te | George Kittle | 23.2 |
pk | Nick Folk | 18.8 |
td | Los Angeles Chargers | 6 |
flex | Isaiah Likely | 10.5 |
flex | DK Metcalf | 9.9 |
Yikes.... I hope you move on but given Balt is very good against rbs and gus is back plus Baltimore simply doesnt give up many points to d's giving both Dobbins and the chargers their average scores seems like a shaky assumption.
Below is a cut & paste of my post from week 11 of the 2018 contest...
Went to my brother's house last night for some drinks. Had a cushion of 33.30 points going into the game, never even turned on his TV. Got completely drunk and had a great time. I wake up and open up calcomatic, and to my surprise, my entry is RED. The cut line moved 43.25 points in one game. I just started laughing my ### off.
Army Eye
Footballguy
The rare regular season game that has its own Wikipedia article dedicated to it
(though somehow there's an oversight in the article, they never mention the impact on the FootballGuys contest)
2018 Kansas City Chiefs–Los Angeles Rams game - Wikipedia
That TD should ice it.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
And I moved with it!
We started this week with 12 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Sadly, we lost our @Puppies 
Moving on to week 13 are:
@lsutigers @bamabuddha @BlackCrowes @scottybo @Scoresman @Forte Yard Dash @JaBoo @apalmer @da_budman @IHEARTFF @a_troll00
Of note
- apalmer was this week's top dog with a score of 178.65
- bamabuddha was this week's lowest advancing team with 137.90
Good luck in week 13!
Moving on to week 13 are:
@lsutigers @bamabuddha @BlackCrowes @scottybo @Scoresman @Forte Yard Dash @JaBoo @apalmer @da_budman @IHEARTFF @a_troll00
Of note
- apalmer was this week's top dog with a score of 178.65
- bamabuddha was this week's lowest advancing team with 137.90
Good luck in week 13!
Sad news - we lost our final groupthink team this week. That was a very fun exercise, and I want to personally thank @Joe Bryant and @Contest Turk for allowing the board regulars to submit the teams. Hopefully we can do it again next year. Best of luck to those still in the running!
If Dobbins doesn't get hurt mid game we likely make the cut.
bamabuddha
Footballguy
I thought I was done…We started this week with 12 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Sadly, we lost our @Puppies
Moving on to week 13 are:
@lsutigers @bamabuddha @BlackCrowes @scottybo @Scoresman @Forte Yard Dash @JaBoo @apalmer @da_budman @IHEARTFF @a_troll00
Of note
- apalmer was this week's top dog with a score of 178.65
- bamabuddha was this week's lowest advancing team with 137.90
Good luck in week 13!
Was down by 14 pts at the start of the game and had dobbins, hill, dicker and charger Defense…not much scoring there unless dobbins goes off but with Edward’s back wasn’t feeling it….
Then dobbins goes out so Knew I was done,,,,,
AND I was DONE until the hill TD which become a counter and snuck in by 0.7 points….
Holy $hit….hope it’s an omen….of good things to come?
Thanks again to armyeye for the site and the WINZ who is the man for tracking all this every year
Much appreciated!!!!
Dacomish
Footballguy
UNOFFICIAL future Cut lines (No ties affected this week or future weeks):
Start 11695
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10528
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9477
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8533
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 6828
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5467
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4375
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3502
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2454
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1718
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1203
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 844
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 591
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 355
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 213 (means the top 12 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.
- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.
- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
Start 11695
10% Week 1 Cut to Number – 10528
10% Week 2 cut to Number – 9477
10% Week 3 cut to Number – 8533
20% Week 4 cut to Number – 6828
20% Week 5 cut to Number – 5467
20% Week 6 cut to Number – 4375
20% Week 7 cut to Number – 3502
30% Week 8 cut to Number – 2454
30% Week 9 cut to Number – 1718
30% Week 10 cut to Number – 1203
30% Week 11 cut to Number – 844
30% Week 12 cut to Number – 591
40% Week 13 cut to Number – 355
40% Week 14 cut to Number – 213 (means the top 12 non-playoff teams this week win a prize)
Notes From Contest Rules:
- In weeks 1--14, the cut is based on scores from the current week only. Scores reset each week.
- Specifically, the cut will be determined as in the following example. Suppose it is week 7 and there are 2,394 entries at the beginning of the week. Because the cut percentage is 20% for that week, 2394 will be multiplied by 0.80 and the resulting number, if not an integer, will be rounded UP to the next greatest integer. In this case, 2394 * 0.8 = 1915.2. We round up to 1916. The entry with the 1916th-highest score, and all entries with an equal or greater score, will move to the next round.
- if fewer than 225 participants remain after week 14, then prizes will be awarded to eliminated participants according to highest score in week 14. If prizes are still unawarded after that, then highest score in week 13, and so on.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Made it through with 178 and some change. I think the main factor is that I've largely avoided the injury bug (knock on wood) and my lineup was bye-week friendly. Good luck to all those who remain.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
QB has really carried me i think, even with only two of them and one is Tua. But he and Murray have combined for:
24
37.2
19.9
13.4
29.1
18.1
24.7
29.3
23,9
33.4
32,4
39.7
24
37.2
19.9
13.4
29.1
18.1
24.7
29.3
23,9
33.4
32,4
39.7
Scoresman
Footballguy
We started this week with 12 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Sadly, we lost our @Puppies
Moving on to week 13 are:
@lsutigers @bamabuddha @BlackCrowes @scottybo @Scoresman @Forte Yard Dash @JaBoo @apalmer @da_budman @IHEARTFF @a_troll00
Of note
- apalmer was this week's top dog with a score of 178.65
- bamabuddha was this week's lowest advancing team with 137.90
Good luck in week 13!
The remaining teams here must all be similar.
Joe's either gonna be sweating having to pay out so many, or none at all!
I'm pretty optimistic about mine going forward but the cutlines keep getting tougher and tougher.
a_troll00
Footballguy
We started this week with 12 folks eligible for @Joe Bryant extra $100 prize. Sadly, we lost our @Puppies
Moving on to week 13 are:
@lsutigers @bamabuddha @BlackCrowes @scottybo @Scoresman @Forte Yard Dash @JaBoo @apalmer @da_budman @IHEARTFF @a_troll00
Of note
- apalmer was this week's top dog with a score of 178.65
- bamabuddha was this week's lowest advancing team with 137.90
Good luck in week 13!
The remaining teams here must all be similar.
Joe's either gonna be sweating having to pay out so many, or none at all!
I'm pretty optimistic about mine going forward but the cutlines keep getting tougher and tougher.
The knife is going to cut deep the next two weeks. With no byes this week, it wouldn't surprise me if the cutline is near 160. Good luck to everyone remaining.
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Onward!
davidwb
Footballguy
Through week 12, my average score has been 160 with a standard deviation of 20. My highest score was 191.95 (week 11), while my lowest score was 134.7 (week 3). But over the past 5 weeks, my team has averaged 176, so the trend is upward. But I've now lost Minshew (never used him), Aiyuk (used in 4 weeks), and probably Dobbins (for at least a week or two). And in the dreaded week 14 (if I make it through next week) I won't have Lamar, Taylor, and Sutton. All players (other than Minshew) have been used at least twice -- with Stafford the only one at 2 weeks. I'll need a big week from him in week 14.
Go Crabs!
Go Crabs!
apalmer
Footballguy
Not a good start--12 points below the line after the T-day games. Nabers gave me a decent score, and I guess Jamo's 9.6 is an OK hedge against disaster and is better than Odunze's score, but not much more. Singletary didn't help, so with no Dobbins, I'm going to need to find two scores from KWIII, Javonte, Justice Hill and Vidal. I'm hoping my TE trio of McBride, Kittle and Hill can put up some big numbers.
Mahomes will put your mind at ease with a great performance today
apalmer
Footballguy
I think you spelled Nix wrong.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Wow this is going to be a monster cut line.
2 points ahead of the projected through Friday but not feeling great early. Achane and Bates had good (not great) games, my other guys had ok to replaceable scores so far. Really needed Waddle and/or Worthy to do more.
2 points ahead of the projected through Friday but not feeling great early. Achane and Bates had good (not great) games, my other guys had ok to replaceable scores so far. Really needed Waddle and/or Worthy to do more.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
present174 teams just lost Dobbins
well at least I have good companypresent174 teams just lost Dobbins
apalmer
Footballguy
That means it's Vidal time, right? Right?174 teams just lost Dobbins
How many teams lost Ekler? Misery loves company and all.174 teams just lost Dobbins
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Ghost team after 1pm
168.00 + (CMC/Javonte/Ford/Irving - 2.00/6.50/9.60/19.80) + (Kittle/Taysom/Parkinson - 6.50/9.60/35.20) + (Karty - 13.40) + (Broncos - 15.00)
cut line is seriously robust (136.25 as I type this) so good luck to those sweating The Turk who are actually alive.
-QG
168.00 + (CMC/Javonte/Ford/Irving - 2.00/6.50/9.60/19.80) + (Kittle/Taysom/Parkinson - 6.50/9.60/35.20) + (Karty - 13.40) + (Broncos - 15.00)
cut line is seriously robust (136.25 as I type this) so good luck to those sweating The Turk who are actually alive.
-QG
Gonna be sweating this week.
I Got shakir, Sutton and Kittle chasing my flex spots of 2 and 6.5 when sitting a point below the cut line.
For kittle To count as Te1 it’s 14.6
And either at wr2 is 9.6
So I’d think I need all 3 to count and do well to even have a shot the way the line is moving.
I Got shakir, Sutton and Kittle chasing my flex spots of 2 and 6.5 when sitting a point below the cut line.
For kittle To count as Te1 it’s 14.6
And either at wr2 is 9.6
So I’d think I need all 3 to count and do well to even have a shot the way the line is moving.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
At 178.7 with Njoku -10.4
Not sure if there’s any hugely owned guys left but I hope not
Not sure if there’s any hugely owned guys left but I hope not
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Wow, cutline already at 157.8.
